B.A.'s Midseason Top 50 Prospects

[PuNk42AE]

Baseball America | Blog | Baseball America Prospects Blog | Midseason Top 50 Prospects List

1. Dylan Bundy, rhp, Orioles
2. Jurickson Profar, ss, Rangers
3. Wil Myers, of, Royals
4. Taijuan Walker, rhp, Mariners
5. Danny Hultzen, lhp, Mariners
6. Gerrit Cole, rhp, Pirates
7. Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Diamondbacks
8. Jose Fernandez, rhp, Marlins
9. Manny Machado, ss, Orioles
10. Zack Wheeler, rhp, Mets
11. Mike Olt, 3b, Rangers
12. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Tigers
13. Matt Barnes, rhp, Red Sox
14. Francisco Lindor, ss, Indians
15. Jameson Taillon, rhp, Pirates
16. Archie Bradley, rhp, Diamondbacks
17. Nolan Arenado, 3b, Rockies
18. Oscar Taveras, of, Cardinals
19. Travis D'Arnaud, c, Blue Jays
20. Shelby Miller, rhp, Cardinals
21. Christian Yelich, of, Marlins
22. Miguel Sano, 3b, Twins
23. Jonathan Singleton, 1b, Astros
24. Julio Teheran, rhp, Braves
25. Javier Baez, ss, Cubs
26. Carlos Martinez, rhp, Cardinals
27. Billy Hamilton, ss, Reds
28. Mason Williams, of, Yankees
29. Jake Odorizzi, rhp, Royals
30. Gary Sanchez, c, Yankees
31. Xander Bogaerts, ss, Red Sox
32. Jackie Bradley, of, Red Sox
33. Matt Davidson, 3b, Diamondbacks
34. Matt Harvey, rhp, Mets
35. Nick Franklin, ss, Mariners
36. Starling Marte, cf, Pirates
37. Jake Marisnick, cf, Blue Jays
38. Anthony Gose, cf, Blue Jays
39. Tyler Austin, of, Yankees
40. Alen Hanson, ss, Pirates
41. Cody Buckel, rhp, Rangers
42. James Paxton, lhp, Mariners
43. Jean Segura, 2b/ss, Angels
44. Kolten Wong, 2b, Cardinals
45. George Springer, of, Astros
46. Bubba Starling, of, Royals
47. Hak-Ju Lee, ss, Rays
48. Tyler Thornburg, rhp, Brewers
49. Zach Lee, rhp, Dodgers
50. Jedd Gyorko, 3b, Padres

Only Nick so far, by the end of the year Garcia might be able to crack the bottom half if he keeps up his Lakeland line in Erie. Doubtful that Turner makes it back into the 50 this season.

[Dawgs]

Turners stock continues to fall. Not sure it means anything more than his season was hampered by injury but it does coincide with what we seem to have seen from him in the last 18 months.

[Yoda]

The last 18 months?

[Shelton]

Yeah, he really started going downhill back in january of 2011.

[spikesglaring]

Hultzen at number five is ridiculous. I've yet to read any scouting report that indicates he's going to be more than a mid-rotation guy.

[Nastradamus]

I feel like i haven't seen anything that says Hultzen won't be an ace.

[Eric Cioe]

I am concerned that Turner's performance has sort of stagnated. He's got time still, but the injury worries me and the not great k/bb.

[Tim Mitchell]

The thread prompted me to look at our system.
Bruce Rondon will be our closer next year.
Nick C. may be in the OF next year.
Who would you rather have in our OF next year?...Brennan Boesch or Avisail Garcia?
Look for Crosby to be back up in the second half (Look at Porcellos WHIP)
And Turner sucks

Second Half prediction: Porcello moved for some kind of IF.

[Edman85]

Methinks Turner was ineligible for this list because of his MLB time this year. I mean, Trevor Bauer isn't listed.

[Stanley68]

Methinks Turner was ineligible for this list because of his MLB time this year. I mean, Trevor Bauer isn't listed.

It's for prospects currently in the minors only. In the Q&A for the list they said Turner didn't make it because he doesn't miss enough bats.

[chasfh]

Why do people continue to believe that Castellanos will play the OF for us right away? Do they personally think Cabrera is a better 3B than he? Or have I missed someone in the organization saying that Castellanos will come up as an OF?

[Yoda]

Why do people continue to believe that Castellanos will play the OF for us right away? Do they personally think Cabrera is a better 3B than he? Or have I missed someone in the organization saying that Castellanos will come up as an OF?

Is Castellanos so good at 3B that they're going to piss off one of either Cabrera or Fielder, or both, to accommodate a 20/21 yr old rookie? I don't think so. For everything I've heard he isn't exactly a gold glove 3rd baseman. Moving Cabrera back to 1B and Fielder to DH isn't something we should all just assume is going to happen. Until they do that, I have to assume Nick is going to the OF.

[4hzglory]

Why do people continue to believe that Castellanos will play the OF for us right away? Do they personally think Cabrera is a better 3B than he? Or have I missed someone in the organization saying that Castellanos will come up as an OF?

Well, if Martinez comes back healthy next season, which there are no indications he won't, he will DH. That means Prince will be at 1b, Miggy at 3b, so if Castellanos would be ready, say mid season 2013, it will have to be in the OF.

I also don't see Miggy or Prince going to full-time DH before around 2015, so if he isn't traded, Castellanos will have to play somewhere else until then.

[DontGotSheed]

Time to cash in on all cards I have collecting dust. Muaahhahahahaha

[chasfh]

Is Castellanos so good at 3B that they're going to piss off one of either Cabrera or Fielder, or both, to accommodate a 20/21 yr old rookie? I don't think so. For everything I've heard he isn't exactly a gold glove 3rd baseman. Moving Cabrera back to 1B and Fielder to DH isn't something we should all just assume is going to happen. Until they do that, I have to assume Nick is going to the OF.

I asked the question with no knowledge of or making any assumptions about Castellanos' proficiency at 3B. Cabrera is by almost all standards one of the worst 3B in the majors, and he does have experience in LF, a far less important defensive position, so it shouldn't take much to move Cabrera back 150 or so feet.

The disturbing part of your post is the suggestion that Cabrera is essentially the same kind of player as Derek Jeter -- so vainglorious about his defense that no one dare suggest moving him from 3B or else risk his wrath. That would be tragic for this team, because Cabrera clearly costs us runs, and ultimately wins, in the field at 3B. The sooner we move him from there the better, because keeping him there reduces his overall value in terms of actial wins to the team.

Maybe Castellanos isn't the guy to push Cabrera off third, but that should really only be because he is nearly as atrocious there as Cabrera is. If Castellanos is instead a capable, or even better, defender at the hot corner, he should be in active consideration for replacing Cabrera there sooner than later.

But if, as you suggest, moving Cabrera off 3B is a rejectable position out of hand mainly because of how Cabrera might feel about it, then that bodes poorly for the near term prospects for this team, since that would reflect weak management ethos that would manifest itself in other critical areas as well. Weak management can never lead to development of an annual contender, but instead only occasional outliers at best. And we can only hope that 2006 and 2011 are not regarded by history as outliers.

[pyrotigers]

As far as I know Castellanos is a bad defender and unless he improves quite a bit (possible given his age and still relative lack of experience at the position) he shouldn't be playing third in the big leagues.

[Yoda]

They aren't going to move him for a negligible upgrade on defense, Chas. I don't know how much better Castellanos would be either, but from what I gather Cabrera has a better arm, and does ok coming in on balls. It's left-right where he has issues. I haven't read anything that suggests Castellanos might be an overall upgrade, let along enough to force the team to move Cabrera back to first.

Also, you're only looking at it from a fantasy standpoint. I probably would too if I were making the decision but I don't believe the Tigers will.

Lastly, the Jeter point is silly. Nobody is making that comparison in any way.

[chasfh]

As far as I know Castellanos is a bad defender and unless he improves quite a bit (possible given his age and still relative lack of experience at the position) he shouldn't be playing third in the big leagues.

OK, if it's known that Castellanos is a bad defender, then he's almost ceratin to not displace Cabrera.

They aren't going to move him for a negligible upgrade on defense, Chas.

Nothing I wrote suggests I thought they should or would.

I don't know how much better Castellanos would be either, but from what I gather Cabrera has a better arm, and does ok coming in on balls. It's left-right where he has issues. I haven't read anything that suggests Castellanos might be an overall upgrade, let along enough to force the team to move Cabrera back to first.

My suggestion was moving Cabrera to left, not first.

Also, you're only looking at it from a fantasy standpoint. I probably would too if I were making the decision but I don't believe the Tigers will.

I have no idea what this means, but I haven't played fantasy baseball in nearly a decade, FWIW. I was making the overall comment that, since Cabrera is a minus defender, he costs us runs when he plays third, which reduces his overall value to the team. Do you dispute this?

Lastly, the Jeter point is silly. Nobody is making that comparison in any way.

First off, I am not accusing anyone else of making that comparison. I myself brought it up.

Secondly, it is not a silly comparison. You suggested that at least one reason Cabrera would not be replaced at third by a 20/21 year old rookie is that it would piss him off. If you weren't suggesting it, you would not have brought it up at all. You may recall it being reported that when Alex Rodriguez went to the Yankees, Jeter would not allow A-Rod to displace him at SS even though A-Rod was a far better defender there. That's why I brought it up in my post. The comparison between the situation you suggested and the Jeter/A-Rod situation is apt. So I made it.

[Microline133]

I feel like i haven't seen anything that says Hultzen won't be an ace.

Nobody thinks Hultzen is an ace. He has a #3 ceiling.

[bobrob2004]

Turner's K/BB rate probably was the deciding factor to leave him off the top 50 (34/24). However, his ERA is 3.69 and FIP is 3.87, not horrible at all. I think he barely missed in the top 50 and would definitely be in the top 100. A good 2nd half could put him right back in the top 25 again.

Everywhere I read says that Castellanos should stay at 3B. He isn't stellar there, but isn't terrible enough to be removed. That being said, if the Tigers are stuck with Cabrera at 3B and Martinez at DH, then Castellanos might have to be moved to LF. I do think he won't be ready until Martinez is a FA, thus moving Cabrera to DH and Castellanos to 3B should be a no-brainer.

And as far as Avisail Garcia - I think he's overrated. I'm not a fan at all, and I don't think he even cracks that Tigers current top 10 prospects.

[PuNk42AE]

And as far as Avisail Garcia - I think he's overrated. I'm not a fan at all, and I don't think he even cracks that Tigers current top 10 prospects.

Who all is above him? Cale Iorg?

[Nastradamus]

Nobody thinks Hultzen is an ace. He has a #3 ceiling.

I 100% disagree. He got roughed up a bit in his first few AAA starts, but he's in his very first year in the minors. He dominated AA all year. That kid has ace stuff

[bobrob2004]

Jacob Turner, Nick Castellanos, Andy Oliver, Casey Crosby, Rob Brantly, Eugenio Suarez, James McCann, Tyler Collins, Bruce Rondon, Alex Burgos, Kyle Ryan, Brian Flynn.

Garcia is a hacker. Reminds me of Ryan Streiby. As soon as he goes to a higher level, he'll falter.

[Nastradamus]

I don't see Castellanos taking Cabrera's job while VMart is still here. I don't mind the idea of Cabby to the OF(prefer RF though), but Castellanos isn't good enough defensively to force that move and we just made Cabrera learn make the move to 3B for the team.
He hasn't been great defensively, but he hasn't been that bad either. I like having a 6+ WAR guy at 3B myself.

[Microline133]

I 100% disagree. He got roughed up a bit in his first few AAA starts, but he's in his very first year in the minors. He dominated AA all year. That kid has ace stuff

That's the thing. He doesn't have "ace" stuff. Hultzen is a really good prospect, but he doesn't have anything close to an ace or even a number two profile. He's got good stuff across the board and decent command projection. He doesn't have a plus-plus pitch that can carry him.

[Nastradamus]

Like I said, I 100% disagree. I think he has legit swing and miss stuff. Great change up too

[Walt]

Like I said, I 100% disagree. I think he has legit swing and miss stuff. Great change up too

Yeah Mark, what do you know? Lol

[Microline133]

You're on an island that not even the Mariners brass is on.

[Microline133]

Yeah Mark, what do you know? Lol

Yeah...what do I know...I've only watched him pitch six times in the last 18 months.....

[Nastradamus]

Clearly that is why he just made BA's top 5 prospects. Actually the only I have paid attention to the guy is because I have a few friends who are Mariner fans and I certainly don't think the Mariners' brass agrees with you based on anything I've heard from them or elsewhere. I hear guaranteed ace thrown around a lot more than #3 starter. You may be right in the end, who knows, but I am far from the only one who feels this way about the guy. ESPN for example called him a #3, immediately.

[Nastradamus]

Yeah...what do I know...I've only watched him pitch six times in the last 18 months.....

Oh sorry, didn't realize you were gospel and neither I or anyone else including BA was entitled to an opinion. My bad.

[Walt]

You're on an island that not even the Mariners brass is on.

The guy must have some good deception, because he has fooled you.

[Walt]

Oh sorry, didn't realize you were gospel and neither I or anyone else including BA was entitled to an opinion. My bad.

The gospel according to Mark? Hey, wait...

Edit: You can always tell when I have a little downtime at work because I am here causing a little trouble.

[Microline133]

Oh sorry, didn't realize you were gospel and neither I or anyone else including BA was entitled to an opinion. My bad.

Never said my word was gospel, but you're nowhere near the overwhelming industry consensus with your opinion. I've talked to members of the Mariners front office. They don't believe he has ace stuff. They don't believe he has a number two profile. Even they peg him as a future number three starter.

[redshark63]

Alex Burgos? The one of nearly 7BB/9 IP in High A?

[Nastradamus]

Never said my word was gospel, but you're nowhere near the overwhelming industry consensus with your opinion. I've talked to members of the Mariners front office. They don't believe he has ace stuff. They don't believe he has a number two profile. Even they peg him as a future number three starter.

I never said I was, you are the only one who acted that way with your "what do I know I've only seen him pitch 6 times in 18 months" line. I simply said it was my opinion and I wasn't "on an island".

[bobrob2004]

Hmmm...he was doing better than that the last time I checked. Maybe Garcia does barely make the Tigers top 10, which shows how bad the Tigers farm system is.

Also, it's not all about stats when it comes to prospects.

[redshark63]

Hmmm...he was doing better than that the last time I checked. Maybe Garcia does barely make the Tigers top 10, which shows how bad the Tigers farm system is.

Also, it's not all about stats when it comes to prospects.

Exactly. Which is why I don't understand your Garcia argument. Unless you want to expand from your personal scouting report on him.

[bobrob2004]

Exactly. Which is why I don't understand your Garcia argument. Unless you want to expand from your personal scouting report on him.

It's not really an argument, just my opinion. I'm not a fan of him because of his plate discipline. He's a hacker, and I expect him to turn into Ryan Strieby. I don't expect him to make it at the ML level unless he changes his approach.

[Shelton]

Cabrera may be the worst 3b in the league. But it's a matter of degree. How many runs worse is he at third than castellanos? How many runs worse would he be than castellanos in the OF?

I honestly have no idea. But it's certainly possible if not probable that moving Cabrera to left would cost the team additional runs.