B.A.'s Midseason Top 50 Prospects

**Shelton** · 07-09-2012, 08:44 AM

Originally Posted by Yoda

No. There is no way to be certain, unfortunately. The sample isn't big enough to use most statistics. But looking at simple numbers, Cabrera has better fld% (I know, I hate it too) and better RF than all 3. Surprisingly I believe Beltre is worse in those categories as well, but that probably says more about the sketchiness of defensive statistics. He certainly isn't a clear-cut worst in the league, though. I have a feeling if Shelton were a fan of the team the other guys were on, then they would be the worst in the league as well. I think it was mostly said for a reaction because I doubt he really believes that. Which is fine. It's the AS break and we need something to discuss, it's been fun.

I'm not sure why you are bringing me into this. I like Cabrera at third and don't think I've ever said otherwise.

**tiger337** · 07-09-2012, 09:03 AM

Originally Posted by Shelton

I'm not sure why you are bringing me into this. I like Cabrera at third and don't think I've ever said otherwise.

You were wrong about Jackson, so now you will be blamed for everything. You have great posting range, but you will only be remembered for your Jackson projections.

**tiger337** · 07-09-2012, 09:06 AM

Originally Posted by Yoda

I'm not at all convinced that a half year of UZR is enough to make that determination, whether it agrees with what you see or not. And I don't think I need to point out the error in perception, unless you're able to watch every play he makes, from the moment the ball is batted.

You may be right. I'm just not sold on it yet. I think he's a smart defender, doesn't take a lot of time deciding what to do with the ball, has a great arm, and generally fields what is hit to him. I think he also comes in on the ball better than I thought he would. I think it would be more frustrating to have a guy with good range but who constantly throws the ball away.

You are right that the fielding statistics are not conclusive. It's silly to say definitively that Cabrera is the worst third baseman, but not silly for someone to suggest it.

**Shelton** · 07-09-2012, 09:17 AM

Originally Posted by tiger337

You were wrong about Jackson, so now you will be blamed for everything. You have great posting range, but you will only be remembered for your Jackson projections.

I'm pretty sure I was right about Jackson.

**tiger337** · 07-09-2012, 09:20 AM

Originally Posted by Shelton

I'm pretty sure I was right about Jackson.

You may have been. I'd need to go look at your exact wording. It's now how it will be remembered though!

**qsilvr2531** · 07-09-2012, 09:23 AM

Originally Posted by Shelton

I'm pretty sure I was right about Jackson.

You've said so much about Jackson that I am certain you were both right and wrong about him. :)

**sagnam** · 07-09-2012, 09:32 AM

Originally Posted by Shelton

I'm pretty sure I was right about Jackson.

All I remember is you hated Jackson.

**Yoda** · 07-09-2012, 09:40 AM

Originally Posted by Shelton

I'm not sure why you are bringing me into this. I like Cabrera at third and don't think I've ever said otherwise.

How quickly we forget :)

Originally Posted by Shelton

Cabrera may be the worst 3b in the league....

To be fair, for some reason I had it in my head that you said he definitely was the worst. I actually agree with you that he may be. I was just trying to argue that other guys might be worse than him. It's just a matter of what you chose to look at, at this point.

**Shelton** · 07-09-2012, 09:43 AM

I was countering the assertion that he was the worst and illustrating why even if he was that it didn't matter that much.

**Yoda** · 07-09-2012, 09:44 AM

I gotcha! My mistake.

**tiger337** · 07-09-2012, 09:51 AM

Originally Posted by qsilvr2531

You've said so much about Jackson that I am certain you were both right and wrong about him. :)

As a statistician, I feel as if I'm never 100% right or wrong about anything.

**Yoda** · 07-09-2012, 11:31 AM

Originally Posted by tiger337

As a statistician, I feel as if I'm never 100% right or wrong about anything.

This is 50% correct.

**RobSk** · 07-09-2012, 12:02 PM

Originally Posted by Yoda

I'm not at all convinced that a half year of UZR is enough to make that determination, whether it agrees with what you see or not. And I don't think I need to point out the error in perception, unless you're able to watch every play he makes, from the moment the ball is batted.

You may be right. I'm just not sold on it yet. I think he's a smart defender, doesn't take a lot of time deciding what to do with the ball, has a great arm, and generally fields what is hit to him. I think he also comes in on the ball better than I thought he would. I think it would be more frustrating to have a guy with good range but who constantly throws the ball away.

Agreed, SSS on UZR makes it less valuable. However, IMO, it's still more valuable than naked eye and FAR more valuable than Range Factor or Fielding Percentage.

Also, I'm not clear that how frustrating something is has anything to do with how effective the guy is. It's completely a question of how many balls do you turn into outs compared to what other fielders would do at your position. So far, according to trained observers, Cabrera is not getting to balls other fielders would get to, and in fairly sizeable numbers too (like 1 every couple of games).

And yes, someone that "constantly" throws the ball away could be worse than a guy who gets to less balls. It depends on how often "constantly" is and how many less balls the guy with the limited range gets to.

FWIW, if it were up to me at this point, I don't know whether I would move Cabrera over to 1st and DH Fielder. It probably makes sense from an overall team effectiveness standpoint, since our DH options are so crappy (Young/Boesch). The unfortunate truth is, our options to replace Cabrera at 3rd are also pretty poor. All of them are better than he is defensively by a solid margin, but it's possible that the offensive trade of Young/Boesch at DH for Kelly/Worth/???? at 3rd might override the defensive gain. That's even with the assumption that Boesch/Young continue to stink up the joint to a .650-.675 tune.

What's my point? My point is that even though Cabrera is a poor defender at 3rd, I'd probably keep him there. Especially if Mr. Awful (Young) manages a .750-.800 OPS in the second half at DH.

Rob

**RobSk** · 07-09-2012, 12:15 PM

Originally Posted by tiger337

You are right that the fielding statistics are not conclusive. It's silly to say definitively that Cabrera is the worst third baseman, but not silly for someone to suggest it.

Yeah, I agree with this. If I've sounded definitive, I didn't mean to. The numbers suggest that he is, overall, an ineffective defensive third baseman. I'd sure love to see that change.

Rob

**tiger337** · 07-09-2012, 12:38 PM

Originally Posted by RobSk

Also, I'm not clear that how frustrating something is has anything to do with how effective the guy is. It's completely a question of how many balls do you turn into outs compared to what other fielders would do at your position.

Right. How frustrating somebody is to watch is not necessarily indicative of how good of a fielder he is. This is like the Ryan Raburn argument where people are frustrated by his bonehead plays and fail to take into account how many balls he gets to compared to the average left fielder. A more relevant one is Brandon Inge who got to a lot of balls the average 3B could not get to but sometimes gets remembered for his throwing errors.

**Shelton** · 07-09-2012, 01:24 PM

It would one thing if Cabrera was booting balls left and right and costing the team a lot of runs, but he really isn't. Labeling him as the worst makes it sound worse than it is.

Also, I don't really care too much how he compares to league defensively, because his offense is also much better than the league and more than makes up for it. I care about how he compares relative to the other options at the team's disposal. It's a sad state of affairs when delmon young is one of the nine best hitters on the team, but he is, so he needs to occupy dh. Cabrera has shown that he is good enough to make it work. Until he becomes so bad that it makes more sense to have don Kelly in the every day lineup and delmon in left, there isn't much sense in worrying about cabrera's defense at third.

**tiger337** · 07-09-2012, 01:43 PM

Given their current roster, I agree that Cabrera at third is the way to go. In the future, I'd like them to improve their infield defense substantially whether it involves Cabrera staying at third or not.

**Longgone** · 07-09-2012, 01:53 PM

Originally Posted by Yoda

Of course nobody knows "for certain". Nobody knows anything for certain. But people do have a pretty good idea that Castellanos isn't very good at 3B. It's pretty well-documented.

I believe most scouts would project him to become an average 3rd baseman. His issues are not due to the lack of innate ability; hands, arm, agility, but due to things that can be learned, especially his footwork.

**irvink** · 07-12-2012, 03:03 PM

Keith Law posted his midseason top 50 prospects today. Two Tigers. Castellanos came in at 15. Turner at 37.

It's an insider piece, but here is a one sentence excerpt, concerning Nick's defense:

He is going to be at least solid average at third -- good enough that the Tigers shouldn't be thinking about putting him in the outfield.

On a followup audio chat, he went on to rave about Castellanos' approach and said that he reminded him of David Wright. He sees him as a perennial all star at 3b.

Jurickson Profar of the Texas Rangers is the new No. 1 prospect in baseball - MLB - ESPN

**4hzglory** · 07-12-2012, 03:11 PM

He is going to be at least solid average at third -- good enough that the Tigers shouldn't be thinking about putting him in the outfield.

Unless of course they have 2 of the best hitters in baseball in their prime manning 1st and 3rd and a solid veteran switch hitter coming back next year to DH.

**Yoda** · 07-12-2012, 05:19 PM

Originally Posted by 4hzglory

Unless of course they have 2 of the best hitters in baseball in their prime manning 1st and 3rd and a solid veteran switch hitter coming back next year to DH.

Yeah, there's always that.

What does Keith Law know anyhow?