Trade options to get an infielder?

[Verlander MVP 2011]

Would Nick C, Turner and Brantly land Justin Upton?

[Gehringer_2]

These two statements are identical. Lack of precision is caused by faults in method or measure.



Actually, I get more than the drift, and have gotten it for a long time. I quote UZR because I believe it's the best of the available defensive numbers. UZR, FRAA, and DRS are ok. TZ is not as good, but is still ok. ALL of them are FAR FAR better than fielding percentage or range factor. ALL of them tell us far less, far less accurately than, say, OPS tells us about offensive value. Which tells us less than WAR.



Did I mention that I like UZR better than DRS? UZR is not impacted by this, as it considers how well the person handles the plays that DO come at them.




Yes, and it isn't even close.

First off, look through MTS history- I've been as big a Raburn supporter as anyone. Probably as consistent a Raburn supporter as there is on the site.

Second- Ryan Raburn is now 31 years old, and his first half performance this year was FAR worse than last year. It was not "bad". It was "I can't handle the major leagues". Is it possible that he recovers and hits well in the second half? Sure, weirder things have happened. At this point, I don't believe he will ever have an .800 season half again. If he DOES get it back together, his place should be the OF (where he is mediocre defensively) or DH.

Third - Ryan Raburn should just never play 2b yo. His numbers are beyond horrible. He's just not able to play that position at a major league level. Over the last 5 season, among 66 guys that have played a minimum of 1000 total innings at 2b, Ryan Raburn is so far and away the worst defender that it isn't even funny. He should NOT be considered to play 2b, no matter what he does offensively, IMO.

Rob

nice post Rob

[RobSk]

Would Nick C, Turner and Brantly land Justin Upton?

If I were the Tigers, I would not make this deal. Upton is a good player, and would help the Tigers, but that's too much.

Rob

[irvink]

I think Castellanos is exactly what the Diamondbacks are looking for in Upton. With Montero just singing a 5 yr extension, Brantly is probably not what they are looking for. I would think Turner, Castellanos and another 2nd tier prospect could get the deal done, but I'm not sure that would necessarily be in the Tigers' best interest.

[STLTiger69]

The Diamondbacks are willing to listen to offers for Justin Upton, but they’re not looking for prospects. "We're still in win mode,” GM Kevin Towers told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.


(there is more in the story....)

Justin Upton Rumors: Wednesday: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

[RJBBREZ]

Would Nick C, Turner and Brantly land Justin Upton?

I sure hope not. Tigers would be getting robbed bigtime.

[Hart]

Another fielder who was overrated was Griffey. He was good for a a while, but was was a horrible center fielder for probably the second half of his career. What happens a lot is a guy like Griffey, Hunter, Alomar or Jeter will be a very good defender for a few years when they are young. Their peak is short though and then they develop into below average fielders while maintaining their stellar reputation for their entire careers.

Griffey was one who especially bothered me though because I thought he was overrated even in his prime. I would see his highlight reel catches on ESPN and hear people rave about him like he was Willie Mays. Then I'd watch him play and was never impressed. He never seemed anywhere near the class of a Willie Wilson or Devon White.

Interesting thoughts. I never liked Griffey when he played but he was baseball's darling and everybody loved him. Did you watch a lot of him?

[Shelton]

The Diamondbacks are willing to listen to offers for Justin Upton, but they’re not looking for prospects. "We're still in win mode,” GM Kevin Towers told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.


(there is more in the story....)

Justin Upton Rumors: Wednesday: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

He can say that, but I don't believe it. There are just not any logical deals that can be made where the diamondbacks trade away a 24 year old all star signed to a good contract and get back enough major league level talent to make it worthwhile. A contending team with good major league players is not going trade that away for upton, because that would create too many holes. A rebuilding team will also not make such a deal because they need more than one player and upton's value would be wasted on them. You never see deals where multiple major league players are traded for a single star.

Granderson was traded for a single major leaguer, a prospect, and a rookie relief pitcher. Scherzer and schlereth were traded for Edwin and Kennedy.

The dbacks have outfield depth in the minors and that is why they can afford to trade upton and still be competitive. It would be marketing suicide to say that they want to trade upton for prospects, but when push comes to shove, they will trade him, and they won't be getting pieces that can contribute this year. Maybe they get one, but the deal will hinge on prospects.

[tiger337]

Trades were more fun in the old days when good major leaguers were traded for good major leaguers. That doesn't happen a lot anymore.

[Hart]

The Diamondbacks are willing to listen to offers for Justin Upton, but they’re not looking for prospects. "We're still in win mode,” GM Kevin Towers told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.


(there is more in the story....)

Justin Upton Rumors: Wednesday: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

If they are in win mode, why would they trade him?

I think they would take a package built around a top prospect. I love Castellanos but I don't see how the Tigers could not trade him for Upton if salary were not an issue. However, you have to think the Tigers payroll is just about maxed out. Castellanos is going to be much cheaper the next 5 years than Upton. That makes him very valuable to the Tigers with Verlander, Cabrera, and Fielder's contracts eating up so much of our payroll.

Based on price, cost, and potential production, I think Victorino is the outfielder the Tigers should get.

[STLTiger69]

If they are in win mode, why would they trade him?

Yea, there is something really interesting going on with Upton in Arizona right now. Apparently both Gibson and the ownership are not thrilled with Upton and I really wonder what is the back story to this.

I think they would take a package built around a top prospect. I love Castellanos but I don't see how the Tigers could not trade him for Upton if salary were not an issue. However, you have to think the Tigers payroll is just about maxed out. Castellanos is going to be much cheaper the next 5 years than Upton. That makes him very valuable to the Tigers with Verlander, Cabrera, and Fielder's contracts eating up so much of our payroll.

Based on price, cost, and potential production, I think Victorino is the outfielder the Tigers should get.

I'm more and more convinced that the Tigers are going to keep Castellanos and Turner and frankly are not to willing to give away Rondon, Garcia or Brantly either.

And I'll say one more inflamitory thing before I leave, my predicition that the Tigers "big" free agent signing for the outfield for the 2013 season will be.....(fake drum roll please)

Tori Hunter...

and on the cheap too...

[Gehringer_2]

Yea, there is something really interesting going on with Upton in Arizona right now. Apparently both Gibson and the ownership are not thrilled with Upton and I really wonder what is the back story to this.


.

Coming out of Spring Training hitting like adog doesn't make you many friends in managment, but whatever his problem was early in the season, he's pretty much dead on his career OPS over the last 200 BA, though his HRs down and his OBP is up.

[Gehringer_2]

And I'll say one more inflamitory thing before I leave, my predicition that the Tigers "big" free agent signing for the outfield for the 2013 season will be.....(fake drum roll please)

Tori Hunter...

and on the cheap too...

He is old, but Torii is holding up pretty well for an old guy - maybe he will turn out to be one of those guys that will be useful 'till he's 40. There have been times the 'jerk' factor has loomed large for Hunter though, which might be a factor given the Tiger's emphasis on clubhouse harmony.

[STLTiger69]

He is old, but Torii is holding up pretty well for an old guy - maybe he will turn out to be one of those guys that will be useful 'till he's 40. There have been times the 'jerk' factor has loomed large for Hunter though, which might be a factor given the Tiger's emphasis on clubhouse harmony.

I think you said it best, he's holding up well for his age...

I just think the Tigers will want a RH 3rd/4th outfielder that can hit LH pitching and play a solid defense and is not looking for a large money/long term contract (think 2 years MAX). Hunter I think will understand his roll with a new team (no Inge drama) and he has been playing RF this year and he might (MIGHT) fit the bill for 2013 and at a reasonable price,... we'll see....

[STLTiger69]

Coming out of Spring Training hitting like adog doesn't make you many friends in managment, but whatever his problem was early in the season, he's pretty much dead on his career OPS over the last 200 BA, though his HRs down and his OBP is up.

See, that's what makes me really wonder what the back story is here. Is Justin Upton having some personal issues or not making good use of his personal off time that is sending red flags to the Arizona ownership? I'm also not ruling out that they are just saying the words "trade" and "Upton" to get his attention and put a fire under his backside. I just wonder what would make a team want to trade one of their best players in the middle of a pennant chase and Upton's contract isn't prohibatively expensive either.

....so....what's the deal?!?

[socaltiger]

What about Josh Reddick from Oakland ? Will they consider Brantley and Bosch with a pitcher like Marte or Oliver ? Possible ?

[STLTiger69]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN

J.Upton is just 24 years old w/98 career HRs, 2xAll-Star. There is concern among rival teams about whether he's got chronic shoulder issue.

That makes more sense now.....

[Hart]

Gibby is a pretty hard nosed player/manager who is ra ra all the time and if you are not the same way, I can see how he would sour on you. He always loved Higginson for that reason. He would probably love Brandon Inge too. I don't see Justin Upton being that kind of player.

This type of managing wears thin pretty quickly in a long season. I don't know how long he will last as a manager in the big leagues. Maybe he's changed. I don't follow things too closely in Arizona.

[Hart]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN

J.Upton is just 24 years old w/98 career HRs, 2xAll-Star. There is concern among rival teams about whether he's got chronic shoulder issue.

That makes more sense now.....

Has he had shoulder issues in the past? I thought the injury this year was a thumb injury.

Upton might be partly a victim of expectations right now. Because he was so good so young, everybody expects him to develop into an MVP caliber player year and year out, like Cabrera or Tulowitzki. But I think the safer bet is that in his prime, you are going to get an .850 to .900 OPS player and this is not an MVP type talent...but still a very good player. And there is still that chance he develops into something even better than that.

[STLTiger69]

What about Josh Reddick from Oakland ? Will they consider Brantley and Bosch with a pitcher like Marte or Oliver ? Possible ?

I think Oakland wouldn't be in a big hurry to deal a cheap, team controlled player for prospects right now. If Reddick would be a free agent after this season is over- I'd bet just about anything Oakland would deal him in a heartbeat. Problem is Reddick isn't going to be a free agent until after the 2016 season is over so Oakland has 4 more years to work him for cheap.

Also if you look at the Oakland roster, they seem to have a real shortage of MLB quality position players. If you want to see something that will blow your mind, go to MLB stats, select Oakland A's and then make sure you hit the "qualifers". Then select the Tigers team and see the difference...


Major League Baseball Stats | MLB.com: Stats

[Hart]

The Phillies are going to trade Shane Victorino. There is no sense in them keeping him for the second half the season. He has a career .341 obp, runs very well on the bases, and plays a decent outfield. I think chances are pretty good he bounces back if he goes to a contender. His BABIP is well below career norms and his walk and strikeout rates are holding steady at his career norms. Unless the Tigers go big for Upton, it would be crazy not to make a strong pitch for Victorino. He is not going to cost us a key player or prospect. And he is definitely an everyday player you could hit number two if Berry falters or lower in the order if to set up the top of the lineup.

[DaYooperASBDT]

If they are in win mode, why would they trade him?

I think they would take a package built around a top prospect. I love Castellanos but I don't see how the Tigers could not trade him for Upton if salary were not an issue. However, you have to think the Tigers payroll is just about maxed out. Castellanos is going to be much cheaper the next 5 years than Upton. That makes him very valuable to the Tigers with Verlander, Cabrera, and Fielder's contracts eating up so much of our payroll.

Based on price, cost, and potential production, I think Victorino is the outfielder the Tigers should get.

Like. Then you could consider dropping Jackson down to #2 maybe?

[DaYooperASBDT]

I could live with a second base upgrade. Aaron Hill ??

[Motor City Sonics]

I could live with a second base upgrade. Aaron Hill ??

Shannon Penn has got to be ready by now................now or never !

[KleShreen]

The Phillies are going to trade Shane Victorino. There is no sense in them keeping him for the second half the season. He has a career .341 obp, runs very well on the bases, and plays a decent outfield. I think chances are pretty good he bounces back if he goes to a contender. His BABIP is well below career norms and his walk and strikeout rates are holding steady at his career norms. Unless the Tigers go big for Upton, it would be crazy not to make a strong pitch for Victorino. He is not going to cost us a key player or prospect. And he is definitely an everyday player you could hit number two if Berry falters or lower in the order if to set up the top of the lineup.

Everyone is already upset that we have one corner outfielder who has no power (Berry). We might as well pack in the season if we get another.

[TigerNation]

Trades were more fun in the old days when good major leaguers were traded for good major leaguers. That doesn't happen a lot anymore.

I liked the Pineda for Montero trade this offseason.

I know neither of them are established good big league players, but it was swapping young ML players with high upside, which doesn't seem to happen often either.

Usually see prospects traded for MLers now, or at least involved.

It would make sense for teams to make more trades such as that one, but just doesn't seem to happen often.

[STLTiger69]

I liked the Pineda for Montero trade this offseason.

I know neither of them are established good big league players, but it was swapping young ML players with high upside, which doesn't seem to happen often either.

Usually see prospects traded for MLers now, or at least involved.

It would make sense for teams to make more trades such as that one, but just doesn't seem to happen often.

My 2 cents-I think the big reason is simply money.

Would the Tigers have moved Granderson if it wasn't for the concern about being able to afford him? How about the trade that got Cabrera here to Detroit? If Miami had the money would they still have done that deal? Think of how many trades are done with the goal of saving money or trying to rid a player before he leaves via free agency, to ironically, make bigger money with a different team.....

[mickeyb105]

Another fielder who was overrated was Griffey. He was good for a a while, but was was a horrible center fielder for probably the second half of his career. What happens a lot is a guy like Griffey, Hunter, Alomar or Jeter will be a very good defender for a few years when they are young. Their peak is short though and then they develop into below average fielders while maintaining their stellar reputation for their entire careers.

Griffey was one who especially bothered me though because I thought he was overrated even in his prime. I would see his highlight reel catches on ESPN and hear people rave about him like he was Willie Mays. Then I'd watch him play and was never impressed. He never seemed anywhere near the class of a Willie Wilson or Devon White.

Griffey and Alomar were two of the best 2B I've ever seen over the first halves of their careers, but getting old is a b*tch. 30-year-old legs don't get on with artificial turf like 20-year-old legs do, and making that 2B pivot can't get any easier with age. How many great defensive 30+ CF and 2B have you ever seen? You can probably count them on one hand per position.

Andruw Jones is another one we can add to the list of guys who were great before their legs started to get old. Not everyone is Otis Nixon or Davy Lopes.

As great as Wison and White were in CF, I still say Eric Davis pre-kidney damage was the best out there I've ever seen all-around.

[JustinCylander]

Griffey and Alomar were two of the best 2B I've ever seen over the first halves of their careers, but getting old is a b*tch. 30-year-old legs don't get on with artificial turf like 20-year-old legs do, and making that 2B pivot can't get any easier with age. How many great defensive 30+ CF and 2B have you ever seen? You can probably count them on one hand per position.

Andruw Jones is another one we can add to the list of guys who were great before their legs started to get old. Not everyone is Otis Nixon or Davy Lopes.

As great as Wison and White were in CF, I still say Eric Davis pre-kidney damage was the best out there I've ever seen all-around.

Agreed with Eric the Red. I was forced to watch a lot of the Reds in those days, he was unreal good. His first season back from colon cancer he hit .327/.388/.582 in 131 games in Baltimore, had a 30 game hit streak.

[Nastradamus]

He is old, but Torii is holding up pretty well for an old guy - maybe he will turn out to be one of those guys that will be useful 'till he's 40. There have been times the 'jerk' factor has loomed large for Hunter though, which might be a factor given the Tiger's emphasis on clubhouse harmony.

I know Hunter has made a few controversial comments over the years, but i thought he was pretty loved in the clubhouse.

[Nastradamus]

The Phillies are going to trade Shane Victorino. There is no sense in them keeping him for the second half the season. He has a career .341 obp, runs very well on the bases, and plays a decent outfield. I think chances are pretty good he bounces back if he goes to a contender. His BABIP is well below career norms and his walk and strikeout rates are holding steady at his career norms. Unless the Tigers go big for Upton, it would be crazy not to make a strong pitch for Victorino. He is not going to cost us a key player or prospect. And he is definitely an everyday player you could hit number two if Berry falters or lower in the order if to set up the top of the lineup.

I'd take Victorino, but I'd rather try for Pence.

[froggyvk]

The Phillies are selling for pennies on the dollar by trading Victorino, but I kind of view it as karma for all the incompetent decisions that franchise has made over the past few offseasons.

[spikesglaring]

Boy, wouldn't it have been nice if the Tigers had done the common-sense thing in the offseason and signed either Kelly Johnson or Aaron Hill?

[toadhunter911]

I know Hunter has made a few controversial comments over the years, but i thought he was pretty loved in the clubhouse.

This was my impression also. He seems to be well liked by his teammates and is still productive on the field. I'd at least be asking about his availability if I were DD. For those so inclined to WAR, Hunter has been a +1.5 WAR this season. The guy he'd be replacing in RF has been a -1.7.

[Eric Cioe]

Everyone is already upset that we have one corner outfielder who has no power (Berry). We might as well pack in the season if we get another.

Who is upset about him not having power? I mean you see some people thinking he won't be productive in the long term, but I haven't seen anyone say "well, he plays LF, and LF needs power, so all his other skills be hanged, Berry sucks."

The Phillies are selling for pennies on the dollar by trading Victorino, but I kind of view it as karma for all the incompetent decisions that franchise has made over the past few offseasons.

I'd take Victorino. Leyland would probably bat him second, which is fine.

[mickeyb105]

Who is upset about him not having power? I mean you see some people thinking he won't be productive in the long term, but I haven't seen anyone say "well, he plays LF, and LF needs power, so all his other skills be hanged, Berry sucks."



I'd take Victorino. Leyland would probably bat him second, which is fine.

Victorino batting second and starting at a corner would be nice. Is there any word on what Philly is looking for in return for him?

[Nastradamus]

I wonder if Boesch,Garcia,Turner would get us Pence. I think I'd do that. You get a year and a half of him and he basically slides into Young's salary slot(yes he does cost more, but not a ridicuous amount) next year. He can field and hit and he's a righty, still in his prime.

I think Philly might take a chance on Boesch as he's young with some history of production and they don't have many bodies in the OF to replace him. Turner's tough to give up, but Pence is the kind of guy you do it for.

[RobSk]

Everyone is already upset that we have one corner outfielder who has no power (Berry). We might as well pack in the season if we get another.

So, I've probably been as publicly concerned about Berry being a long term term (beyond 2012) solution in the OF as anyone. I don't think that I've ever said anything like "Dang, QB isn't hitting for enough power right now, get rid of him". For crying out ducks, the guy has a .417 slugging and a .388 obp. Nothing wrong with that at all. My problem is not with the 161 plate appearances for the Tigers in 2012. It's with the 2500 minor league AB where he just wasn't very good.

I will say this about Berry- His AA season in 2011 looks almost identical to the numbers he's putting up in Detroit in 2012, and very different from other years of his career. I'd love to think that at 26, he figured something out...

The problem is the previous 800 AB at the AA level where he was that dreaded of all superheros: ORGANIZATIONAL FILLER MAN!!!!

Rob

[Hart]

The Phillies are selling for pennies on the dollar by trading Victorino, but I kind of view it as karma for all the incompetent decisions that franchise has made over the past few offseasons.

Which is exactly why he would provide the most bang for buck in a trade. Unless there is a strong market that drives up the price for him, I think Victorino is a lot better than the return the Phillies will get for him.

[Hart]

I'd take Victorino, but I'd rather try for Pence.

Is Pence available? He is the one star hitter the Phillies have still in his prime. I am sure they will listen to offers for anybody but I would be surprised if somebody met their asking price for Pence.