Tigers will regret not trading Jacob Turner this past off-season

[MSUBrian11]

It's amazing how many prospects/marginal players are wildly overvalued here, now Porcello is being undervalued. Possibly 10-15 years of #3-#5 starter level pitching has a LOT of value.

Guys like Porcello are a dime a doze, he won't net us much in a trade.

[Gehringer_2]

Guys like Porcello are a dime a doze, he won't net us much in a trade.

ask the 2003 pitching staff about that!

[tiger337]

Guys like Porcello are a dime a doze, he won't net us much in a trade.

It's actually very difficult for 29 teams to find five pitchers better than Porcello. He would surely bring something of value in a trade. Are people so spoiled by Verlander that they have forgotten how hard it is to find decent starters?

[alwaysthrowheat]

Guys like Porcello are a dime a doze, he won't net us much in a trade.

Did you see what Trevor Cahill just netted?

Jarrod Parker- top 20-30 prospect
Collin Cowgill- decent 4th OF
Ryan Cook- good relief prospect, 22.2 IP FOUR (4) hits, 0 runs this season

[Yoda]

Guys like Porcello are a dime a doze, he won't net us much in a trade.

Wrong again.

[pyrotigers]

I'm not saying Porcello has no value, but he's had ERA's near 5 the last two seasons, he hasn't had an ERA+ above 86 since his rookie year. I don't think Cahill is actually any better than him, in fact he might be worse, but going by pure ERA and Wins and things that GMs will still trade for he looks much better.

[MSUBrian11]

Yoda, you defended Cale Iorg the same way you defend every other prospect. You're a Dombrowski poster boy


Here is a post from you defending Iorg, when he was sucking back in 2008.

Good lord, he hasn't played in two years. You just love to harp on things like this...

[tiger337]

I'm not saying Porcello has no value, but he's had ERA's near 5 the last two seasons, he hasn't had an ERA+ above 86 since his rookie year. I don't think Cahill is actually any better than him, in fact he might be worse, but going by pure ERA and Wins and things that GMs will still trade for he looks much better.

I doubt there are many GMs that go by Wins and ERA. Teams are a lot more sophisticated than people think they are. I think how trades happen and how GMs present them to fans are two different things.

[alwaysthrowheat]

I'm not saying Porcello has no value, but he's had ERA's near 5 the last two seasons, he hasn't had an ERA+ above 86 since his rookie year. I don't think Cahill is actually any better than him, in fact he might be worse, but going by pure ERA and Wins and things that GMs will still trade for he looks much better.

Isn't Josh Towers pretty Saber friendly?

[Gehringer_2]

It's actually very difficult for 29 teams to find five pitchers better than Porcello. He would surely bring something of value in a trade. Are people so spoiled by Verlander that they have forgotten how hard it is to find decent starters?

Exactly. Rick Porcello should look pretty good to anyone who remembers a pitching staff "anchored" by Mike Maroth, or who is looking at one anchored by Carl Pavanno today for that matter.

[alwaysthrowheat]

Yoda, you defended Cale Iorg the same way you defend every other prospect. You're a Dombrowski poster boy


Here is a post from you defending Iorg, when he was sucking back in 2008.

Considering you just went back to 2008, I'm sure there are plenty of posts in between then and now in which Yoda has criticized the Tigers.

[Eric Cioe]

Yoda, you defended Cale Iorg the same way you defend every other prospect. You're a Dombrowski poster boy


Here is a post from you defending Iorg, when he was sucking back in 2008.

Bringing up a post from 4 years ago is borderline pathological, dude.

[thefunk]

Porcello for Dozier and Span.

[Brownzy]

Porcello for Dozier and Span.

[Yoda]

Yoda, you defended Cale Iorg the same way you defend every other prospect. You're a Dombrowski poster boy


Here is a post from you defending Iorg, when he was sucking back in 2008.

Ha ha... Really? This is your defense, a Cale Iorg post from 4 years ago?

I'd love to hear some actual analysis from you for once rather than just spewing sports radio jibber-jabber. All you ever post is nonsense about draft picks and trade value which you don't apparently know anything about. It's laughable at times and this entire thread is a great example of it. Typical football guy trying to talk baseball. It's not as cut/dry as football is.

[tiger337]

Porcello is going for that career-ending injury and non-tender today.

[TigersSlappy]

It's actually very difficult for 29 teams to find five pitchers better than Porcello. He would surely bring something of value in a trade. Are people so spoiled by Verlander that they have forgotten how hard it is to find decent starters?

The other thing that gets distorted a bit by when they made their MLB debuts is that Porcello is 5 years 9 months younger than JV. Porcello right now is only 1.5 years older than JV was when he made his MLB debut and basically the same age as JV was when he began pitching regularly in MLB. He still has plenty of time to mature into a better pitcher, not JV level, but better.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

I think MSUBrian is just trying to get a rise out of you guys with his commentary.




At least I hope he is.

[Shelton]

Ha ha... Really? This is your defense, a Cale Iorg post from 4 years ago?

I'd love to hear some actual analysis from you for once rather than just spewing sports radio jibber-jabber. All you ever post is nonsense about draft picks and trade value which you don't apparently know anything about. It's laughable at times and this entire thread is a great example of it. Typical football guy trying to talk baseball. It's not as cut/dry as football is.

Oh snap.

[PuNk42AE]

Considering you just went back to 2008, I'm sure there are plenty of posts in between then and now in which Yoga has criticized the Tigers.

How do you know he does? Are you stalking him!?

[The Truman Show]

I really didn't expect my Porcello take to be controversial, but I'll try and elaborate. His previous three starts were not good, not average, and not even bad. That was three starts of having absolutely zero command of his fastball and nothing else remotely resembling stuff. Blaming the defense is foolish when you're giving up screaming liners to every other batter and you follow errors with 3 run bombs. Porcello wasn't pitching like a guy being let down by his defense; I know what that looks like. In those three starts, he was simply not a major league pitcher. My concern was that, if that didn't change, he would find himself demoted and later non-tendered. Considering he had allowed 15 runs in 14.1 IP in those 3 starts, there shouldn't be anything shocking about that; anyone pitching like that would get demoted and non-tendered.

Obviously, today was different, he had command and stuff, and he's back to looking like a 4th starter. I doubt I was the only one worried about those things going into today's game.

[Scottwood]

I didn't think today was a good start for Porcello, either. Only 2 K's through 6 innings, just 7 swing and misses and a fair amount of line drives. On top of that, our infield defense never does him any favors. I'd expect a 4.5 to 5 ERA season out of him this year and to be shopped during the off season. He still has value, though, especially to a team that has a good infield defense and also to a team with a pitching coach that may specialize in teaching ground ball pitchers (such as Dave Duncan if/when he returns from his leave of absence).

[plantcitytigersfan]

I hate to disagree with Truman and I didn't see the game, but we are now happy with 6 IP, 9 hits, 3 walks and a HBP. I have been saying this since 2009, the Tigers have done a terrible job developing Porcello. It was a panic move to promote him to the majors (which Knapp has since admitted). The only good thing that has come out of this is that the Tigers have been careful not to repeat the Porcello mistake with Jacob Turner. When he was drafted in 2007, is this what all the Tigers fans expected from him 5 years later ?

Larry
2012 AAT Brandon Loy

[TigersSlappy]

I hate to disagree with Truman and I didn't see the game, but we are now happy with 6 IP, 9 hits, 3 walks and a HBP. I have been saying this since 2009, the Tigers have done a terrible job developing Porcello. It was a panic move to promote him to the majors (which Knapp has since admitted). The only good thing that has come out of this is that the Tigers have been careful not to repeat the Porcello mistake with Jacob Turner. When he was drafted in 2007, is this what all the Tigers fans expected from him 5 years later ?

Larry
2012 AAT Brandon Loy

For Age 18-23 years he's done more than can be "expected".

[The Truman Show]

I hate to disagree with Truman and I didn't see the game, but we are now happy with 6 IP, 9 hits, 3 walks and a HBP. I have been saying this since 2009, the Tigers have done a terrible job developing Porcello. It was a panic move to promote him to the majors (which Knapp has since admitted). The only good thing that has come out of this is that the Tigers have been careful not to repeat the Porcello mistake with Jacob Turner. When he was drafted in 2007, is this what all the Tigers fans expected from him 5 years later ?

Larry
2012 AAT Brandon Loy

I didn't say I was happy with his start today.

[Gehringer_2]

I really didn't expect my Porcello take to be controversial, but I'll try and elaborate. His previous three starts were not good, not average, and not even bad. That was three starts of having absolutely zero command of his fastball and nothing else remotely resembling stuff. Blaming the defense is foolish when you're giving up screaming liners to every other batter and you follow errors with 3 run bombs. Porcello wasn't pitching like a guy being let down by his defense; I know what that looks like. In those three starts, he was simply not a major league pitcher. My concern was that, if that didn't change, he would find himself demoted and later non-tendered. Considering he had allowed 15 runs in 14.1 IP in those 3 starts, there shouldn't be anything shocking about that; anyone pitching like that would get demoted and non-tendered.

Obviously, today was different, he had command and stuff, and he's back to looking like a 4th starter. I doubt I was the only one worried about those things going into today's game.

I think what we are seeing is the slow abandonment of the 2010 plan for Porcello to succeed as a right-hand-Tom Glavine-low-strike-out-high-control-sinker-ball pitcher. Two years ago the Tiger brass should have read and believed our own Bigglesworth's original analysis that that could not/would not work in todays MLB. Jones is slowly remaking him into the fast ball/breaking ball pitcher the he should have been to be begin with. 1st change the delivery to get the velocity back, and today we began to see the reintroduction of the curve he threw with success in 2009 and was told not to throw in 2010. Jones is basically remaking him while he starts every 5th day in the majors. No mean feat. It will be interesting to see if he pulls it off. Guaranteed there are going to be more growing pains during this transition.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

^^^The funny thing is that I was going to post a few days ago that the growing pains we are seeing this year really should have been taking place in 2010.

[Yoda]

I hate to disagree with Truman and I didn't see the game, but we are now happy with 6 IP, 9 hits, 3 walks and a HBP. I have been saying this since 2009, the Tigers have done a terrible job developing Porcello. It was a panic move to promote him to the majors (which Knapp has since admitted). The only good thing that has come out of this is that the Tigers have been careful not to repeat the Porcello mistake with Jacob Turner. When he was drafted in 2007, is this what all the Tigers fans expected from him 5 years later ?

Larry
2012 AAT Brandon Loy

If the Tigers had scored more than 2 runs in the first 8 innings, Porcello's 3 runs wouldn't have even been noticed. People took the lack of offense and have completely overblown Porcello's game. It's about what I'd expect out of a #4 starter. Rick wasn't the problem today, IMO.

[catswithbats]

I like this Jeff Jones cat.

[pyrotigers]

Isn't Josh Towers pretty Saber friendly?

He's supposed to be, but that makes it hard to comprehend trading for Trevor Cahill.

I think Porcello has some value because he's young and I'm sure some pitching coach out there is thinking 'I can fix this guy' but his performance is crap.

The Mike Maroth mention was actually a good one, because Porcello's career numbers are barely better than Maroth and he's right handed. He's not much different from Nate Robertson either. I think people are overstating how bad the normal 5th starter is.

Even ignoring his mediocre peripherals, Rick Porcello is 81st out of 85 qualifying SPs in ERA between the 2010-2011 seasons. He has names like Nick Blackburn (slightly worse than Rick Porcello - Nick Blackburn. Inspiring stuff) and Chris Narveson around him. I just don't see him having much value at all, especially given that he's not even going to be cheap much longer.

I mean, he's basically been one of the worst starters in MLB to be durable enough/not quite bad enough to stick in the rotation consistently during his career.

edit: And he was awful today, I'm not sure why a start where he walks more than he strikes out vs one of the worst offenses in MLB is supposed to be encouraging in any way

[The Truman Show]

edit: And he was awful today, I'm not sure why a start where he walks more than he strikes out vs one of the worst offenses in MLB is supposed to be encouraging in any way

What's encouraging is that, in his previous 3 starts, he looked like a AA washout. At least today, he looked like a mediocre starter on a bad day.

[The Truman Show]

I think what we are seeing is the slow abandonment of the 2010 plan for Porcello to succeed as a right-hand-Tom Glavine-low-strike-out-high-control-sinker-ball pitcher. Two years ago the Tiger brass should have read and believed our own Bigglesworth's original analysis that that could not/would not work in todays MLB. Jones is slowly remaking him into the fast ball/breaking ball pitcher the he should have been to be begin with. 1st change the delivery to get the velocity back, and today we began to see the reintroduction of the curve he threw with success in 2009 and was told not to throw in 2010. Jones is basically remaking him while he starts every 5th day in the majors. No mean feat. It will be interesting to see if he pulls it off. Guaranteed there are going to be more growing pains during this transition.

It would have worked fine if Porcello had managed to develop at all. When you bring up a pitch-to-contact, low walk, low K sinkerballer, you accept the low Ks with the expectation that they will rise with experience and development. Given that that plan made him a big league pitcher really quickly, it could have yielded great results.

___

Throwing this out there generally: would you trade Rick for Johnny Giavotella? I think he might make a good buy low candidate.

[Nastradamus]

xfip for Porcello by year 4.27,4.24,4.02 and 3.93(this year). I'm not all that concerned. We have a bad D and he's allowing HRs more often on fly balls than he has the past few years. I think he's just fine as our #4. We'd never get fair value for him either.

[alwaysthrowheat]

It would have worked fine if Porcello had managed to develop at all. When you bring up a pitch-to-contact, low walk, low K sinkerballer, you accept the low Ks with the expectation that they will rise with experience and development. Given that that plan made him a big league pitcher really quickly, it could have yielded great results.

___

Throwing this out there generally: would you trade Rick for Johnny Giavotella? I think he might make a good buy low candidate.

I think Rick would still fetch a top 50 prospect plus filler.

[alwaysthrowheat]

I think Porcello has some value because he's young and I'm sure some pitching coach out there is thinking 'I can fix this guy' but his performance is crap.

I just don't see him having much value at all, especially given that he's not even going to be cheap much longer.

A bit of a contradiction there.

Regardless, I think Porcello still has plenty of value. Cahill's home/road splits are a joke, I'm sure Towers knew that. Porcello would generate a similar package back.

[Tim Mitchell]

Move Porcello to the Mets for Daniel Murphy.
We cant go on like this with these scrubs we have.

[Yoda]

A bit of a contradiction there.

Regardless, I think Porcello still has plenty of value. Cahill's home/road splits are a joke, I'm sure Towers knew that. Porcello would generate a similar package back.

Someone would also want to see how he does with a good defense behind him.

[macedonian bengal]

Move Porcello to the Mets for Daniel Murphy.
We cant go on like this with these scrubs we have.

I totally agree with this. I've been crossing my fingers for this deal, or a similiar one myself.

[MSUBrian11]

Jacob Turner's stock dating back to 2009

[MSUBrian11]

Someone would also want to see how he does with a good defense behind him.

Quit blaming bad defense for the reason he sucks. Porcello is a garbage pitcher that has had an ERA of close to 5.00 the past 3 years. He's basically Mike Maroth.