Trade Austin Jackson??

[BornOnThe4th]

LOL.

Jackson is going nowhere.

[Tigers4F4]

Didn't they say something like that about Curtis?

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

One could make the argument now is the time to sell because you could get a huge haul, especially if one thinks it is a temporary improvement rather than a fundamental change in how he is playing.

Not saying that is the right thing or the thing I would do, but a young cost controlled 2-way player would be very attractive to 25 teams or something.

[Nastradamus]

You could always sell high on a guy like Jackson(or maybe an Avila if he weren't the AGM's son), but even at his worst, Jackson is a 2-3 WAR player, under control for 3-4 more years after this one at a premium positions. That isn't easy to replace and you have to be sure you are getting good value for him if you do it.

[ToledoTigerFan]

Why is it every good player we get, someone comes up with the idea to trade him?

[Walt]

Why is it every good player we get, someone comes up with the idea to trade him?

Benke-itis?

[Charles Liston]

His OBP is .421. Good enough to lead off?

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Why is it every good player we get, someone comes up with the idea to trade him?

Actually, the premise was he wasn't good, so they need to trade him.

Then he became good, so I decided to point out that you could actually get something of value for him now, because trading bad players usually nets you nothing in return, whereas trading good players can net you a haul. Selling low is usually a bad idea in practice.

I also added that I wouldn't trade him.

[bobrob2004]

I'm not trying to troll or spam or any of those other nasty words.

Austin Jackson really confuses me, though.

Eye On the Tigers: Austin Jackson Confuses Me

[MSUBrian11]

I'm not trying to troll or spam or any of those other nasty words.

Austin Jackson really confuses me, though.

Eye On the Tigers: Austin Jackson Confuses Me

Thanks for sharing. I think his BABIP will go down a little, but I think he can finish the year around .290-.300, with 16-18 homers. I've been very impressed with how he has transformed his swing in the off-season. I was worried that his numbers last year, would be the norm for him. Glad I was wrong.

[john doe]

Why is it every good player we get, someone comes up with the idea to trade him?

+1.....happens a lot here.

[RobSk]

Why is it every good player we get, someone comes up with the idea to trade him?

So, I agree with this- The reason to trade Jackson is that you believe that he is the player he was shown to be by his previous (before 2012) 3400 career AB, not by the 167 AB in 2012. Is it possible that at 25 he has taken a big step forward? Sure, no doubt. I think he's got the physical gifts to be an excellent player. But it's also a very reasonable possibility that Austin Jackson will never have another .900 OPS month in his career, and that the .800+ OPS months will be as few and far between as they were before 2012.

I'm not sure what I would do if I were DD. I would probably hold onto him. Even if he levels out at a .775 OPS for the year (which means he'll have some very tough months between now and the end), he's a way better CF than anyone else in the organization. As always, it depends on what people offer. I think I'd at least try shopping him, and see what offers come. It would have to be a good enough deal to get a good defender with a .775 OPS or so.

Rob

[DaYooperASBDT]

Welp, he's a keeper!

[toadhunter911]

I'm not trying to troll or spam or any of those other nasty words.

Austin Jackson really confuses me, though.

Eye On the Tigers: Austin Jackson Confuses Me

Nice job, considering you weren't trying...

[Hart]

Jackson looks legit to me. The fact that his strikeouts are so far down and walks up is a very good sign that last year will not repeat itself. And if we get this thing turned around, DD can thank his lucky stars that Jackson has improved beyond anyone's expectations because the team he built around Cabrera and Fielder this year is very questionable at best. Jackson is the reason the Tigers have looked good as of late and the criticism of the management has died down some.

[sabretooth]

Jackson's hitting approach seems to have changed, esp. in terms of not swinging at pitches outside of the zone. His K-rate drop is something I've seen from a number of other hitters who have altered their approach and who have improved. His K-rate before was so very high, esp. for a guy with low power, the drop from 27% to 20% seems "real" and sustainable to me.

At the same time, there is some apparent "luck" in Jackson's current BABIP (gb BABIP > .400!), suggesting maybe 6 "extra" singles. And his BB rate is very high compared to anything he's done before as a pro (14% vs. 7-10% otherwise), suggesting maybe 7 "extra" BBs. Also, his HR/FB rate is quite high, maybe suggesting a couple of "extra" HRs. His LD% is at 20% and is pretty normal (unlike 2010 where he was over 24%, where only a couple of the best hitters can sustain themselves).

If you keep the K-rate intact at 20%, but back off the seemingly "extra" BBs (say 7, for a BB-rate of 10%, as high as he's been for any single professional season in the past), back off the "extra" groundball singles (drop 6 singles, for a gb-BABIP of .300, then add back 2 singles due to dropping the 7 "extra" BBs back into 1 K and 6 balls in play that would yield perhaps 2 replacement singles), then drop 2 "extra" HRs for a HR/FB% of 10% (again, still , and you would get a line like this:

276/350/460/810

That's still pretty damn good! If he does that for the rest of the year with the level of defense he plays he'll still probably finish in the top 10 - 15 position players in the AL in terms of WAR for all of 2012.

I recognize that some might trade for Jackson as if he were going to keep up his 950+ OPS, but frankly even at 800 OPS he's still something that's really hard to find -- a pretty good two-way player early in his prime. I would definitely NOT favor a trade of a limited commodity, even if there was the potential to leverage Jackson's seeming overvalue. Other GMs aren't stupid....there's a reason why former Colorado Rockies hitters don't automatically get paid as if their Denver-induced hitting will continue elsewhere.

I say keep him and see what he can do...I'd say he's a #1 hitter at best.

[sagnam]

I think his BB rate is up (and K rate is down too) because he is moving less in the box allowing him to read pitches better. I think the improvements beyond what we've seen from him in his career are sustainable because of that.

[Yoda]

He's shortened his leg kick, but is really moving his head any less than he was before? Or is this something we're just assuming?

[sagnam]

He's shortened his leg kick, but is really moving his head any less than he was before? Or is this something we're just assuming?

If by "we" you mean "me", then yes. It's my assumption, I don't want to speak for anyone else. I think that his upper body moved more when his leg was travelling farther in both directions. Unfortunately, I don't have access to the type of film necessary to prove or disprove my assumption. Fortunately, I qualified my original assumption with the "I think" disclaimer.

EDIT: Looks like there was an article about it in the Free Press in January. The original story is not on the freep site, but here's a blurb from the story that says just that. Detroit Tigers

By the end of their sessions in the Comerica Park batting cage and the video room, Jackson had a different hitting approach. As he and McClendon told it, he has reduced the leg kick he used as a timing mechanism. He also is moving his head less when he swings, a change that should allow him to see the ball better. In theory, these changes should give Jackson a swing that will reduce his strikeouts.

[Yoda]

Nice find. It makes sense.

[TonyJM]

The reason to trade Jackson is that you believe that he is the player he was shown to be by his previous (before 2012) 3400 career AB, not by the 167 AB in 2012. Is it possible that at 25 he has taken a big step forward?

I agree with this overall assessment. The problem with Jackson (and guys like him) is that his age per level makes it difficult to easily evaluate those 3400 career ABs. I have no idea what kind of numbers Jackson is going to produce down the road, but I think folks are a little too quick in making predictions for these kinds of players based on their aggregate stats.

FWIW, I think there's a fangraphs piece on the leg kick.

-Tony

[Gehringer_2]

Note on AJax. He now has more than 1600 MLB PA and still has the highest BaBIP in all of major league baseball over the last three years (cumulative). I guess at some point we have to accept that his extraordinary BaBIP is more than luck.

[John_Brian_K]

I think it is the 'below average bat' thing that have people hung up. It does me at least. I thought the best predictor was past performance? He had a REALLY good rookie year, most players go through some sort of 'sophmore slump' and he is hitting the ball much better now than he was at the beginning of the year.

Right now he is average. After a HORRID start he is hitting .247 and still chipping in with some pretty good defensive CF. He strikes out too much and that can be for many different reasons (ie., he is just always going to be a high SO guy, maybe he is trying to harness that power and is taking longer swings etc etc).

I like looking back on the posts that I get right. I am still trying to find the thread where I was saying I thought AJ was going to gain some power. Right now I am feeling good about my 'eyeball test' skills, but it could change. So far I am WAY off on Boesch so this is not a 'neener neener' to the detractors moment, but I still have time for that one to come around!

Keep up that .971 OPS AJ!

[Antrat]

I was really surprised by the power. Pleasantly surprised.

[T&P_Fan]

Definitely didn't expect Jackson to out slug Fielder, that is for sure. Austin Jackson is an elite talent right now. If we had a number two hitter I would use Berry lead-off and then hit Jackson fifth.

[Yoda]

His OPS is better than both Fielder and Cabrera. It's crazy.

[Walt]

Definitely didn't expect Jackson to out slug Fielder, that is for sure. Austin Jackson is an elite talent right now. If we had a number two hitter I would use Berry lead-off and then hit Jackson fifth.

I was thinking about that myself. I think 5th would be good for Ajax because we have Berry producing enough for leadoff (for now), and it would move Elmon down in the order. The problem is without anybody decent to slot at the #2 slot, we are just getting less at bats for one of our most productive hitters.

[Antrat]

Can he keep this up? I mean, is this the real AJ now or just a fluke?
If this is the way he's going to perform from now on, I really hope they eventually move him down in the order.

[John_Brian_K]

Can he keep this up? I mean, is this the real AJ now or just a fluke?
If this is the way he's going to perform from now on, I really hope they eventually move him down in the order.

Personally, I do not think he keeps up THIS production, but it makes me happy to know even if regresses QUITE a bit he will still be a .300 hitter with a high OPS and a little pop who can play a killer CF.

[4hzglory]

Can he keep this up? I mean, is this the real AJ now or just a fluke?
If this is the way he's going to perform from now on, I really hope they eventually move him down in the order.

I'd actually prefer he stay where he is in the lineup. He definitely has been the catalyst in the offense and I want him getting as many ab's as possible and getting on base in front of Miggy and Fielder. I actually think Berry in the 2 spot is good as well as when he even attempts to sacrifice he has a decent chance of beating it out. Having the speed in front of the big guys works well. I think Jackson would score a lot less runs if he hit 5th and runs are what the team needs.

Look at it this way, what is most likely to lead to the most runs, a double by Jackson in front of Miggy and Fielder, or a double by Jackson after Miggy and Fielder? I'd go with the 1st as if Miggy or Fielder is on 1b when Jackson doubles, it is probably 50-50 at best that they score.

Also, if Miggy or Fielder is on 1st and Jackson hits a single, chances are they will only get to 2nd which takes away the benefit of his speed.

[pyrotigers]

Personally, I do not think he keeps up THIS production, but it makes me happy to know even if regresses QUITE a bit he will still be a .300 hitter with a high OPS and a little pop who can play a killer CF.

Yeah this is where I am. I don't think he's as good as he's playing now, but even with a fairly large drop off he'd still be one of the best center fielders in the game. He's shown some awesome improvement as a player this year and I was really happy to see him have a few excellent games in a row here after he'd started striking out/looking like the old Jackson a bit briefly.

[Eric Cioe]

Berry/someone else without power who can walk
Jackson
Cabrera
Fielder
Martinez
Peralta
Avila
Dirks
2B

Next year.

[Tim Mitchell]

Eric doesnt like it when others tell him he's wrong.
Eric, youre wrong.

[4hzglory]

Berry/someone else without power who can walk
Jackson
Cabrera
Fielder
Martinez
Peralta
Avila
Dirks
2B

Next year.

If between Jackson and Berry, I think it makes more sense to have Jackson lead off as I would rather have Berry thinking about advancing the runner than Jackson focusing on that.

[tiger337]

Berry/someone else without power who can walk
Jackson
Cabrera
Fielder
Martinez
Peralta
Avila
Dirks
2B

Next year.

I hope they replace Peralta too because I think their infield defense is killing them. I think they'll let his option kick in though. It would probably be too hard to find both a second baseman and a shortstop.

[tiger337]

Eric doesnt like it when others tell him he's wrong.
.

That would depend on who is telling Eric he is wrong.
And the reasons they give Eric for his wrongness.

[Antrat]

BTW, can you imagine if they had traded Jackson and he ended up having this kind of season with another team?
Of course, I guess that would not have happened without Lloyd.
cough

[4hzglory]

I hope they replace Peralta too because I think their infield defense is killing them. I think they'll let his option kick in though. It would probably be too hard to find both a second baseman and a shortstop.

I agree with both the desire to replace Peralta and the probability they don't do it. They definitely have the defensive SS in the system, but it is doubtful any will be ready to hit at all by next season.

[Eric Cioe]

Eric doesnt like it when others tell him he's wrong.
Eric, youre wrong.

Unlike some others on this website I'm not in the business of making 150 useless predictions each year on the basis that one or two of them will prove true.

I was saying what I would do with the roster next year, given pretty much the personnel already on board.

As far as the 2 hole hitter moving the runner along, I think a great way to do that is to have leadoff man who gets on base at a .350+ clip, can steal perhaps, and then have a 2 hole hitter who can hit him in immediately with extra base power. Why wait three batters to accomplish what two can do?

[Eric Cioe]

I hope they replace Peralta too because I think their infield defense is killing them. I think they'll let his option kick in though. It would probably be too hard to find both a second baseman and a shortstop.

I agree with both the desire to replace Peralta and the probability they don't do it. They definitely have the defensive SS in the system, but it is doubtful any will be ready to hit at all by next season.

I'm with you guys on this one, too. It would be so nice to have a franchise kind of shortstop coming up, not even a superstar but someone young and cheap and that you can plug in every day for two or three years and just not worry about it. They have that in Avila and Jackson up the middle right now, but having a young, good defensive shortstop would be ice.