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Thread: Trade Austin Jackson??
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07-19-2011, 12:30 PM #41
Jackson is younger, power develops latter, so I don't think we can be sure of the final results of that position. Jackson is clearly a superior defensive CF, Dirks and Wells are probably average defensive CF.
Jackson strikes out to much, Wells and Dirks are better at this stage of the game, whoever again those 2 have 2 years on their development curve. So again, I'm willing to give Jackson time to develop. Jackson obviosly needs to cut down on strike outs and increase his walks. Wells and dirks are probably pretty much where they are going to be.
I think the potential for Jackson to turn into a #1 hitter, displaying speed and baserunning ability is much better than Wells and Dirks. I think Wells and Dirks will profile more as #5 and #6 type hitters.
All in all, I like Jackson as my CF for his defense and his potential on offense. You just can't give up on young guys too early, it will usually come back and bite you in the kister!
I also like Wells and Dirks! You may recall that in the beginning of the season I suggested that the last third of the season we may very well see an outfield of Thomas, Jackson and Wells.... other than Thomas' horrendous year and substituting Dirks for Thomas.... I think I'm going to be pretty darn close!
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I wouldnt mind giveing him up as a big piece in a big deal. His trade value right now is high after he gets off the DL regardless of this years numbers
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07-19-2011, 12:37 PM #43
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07-19-2011, 12:44 PM #44
To answer your question, No it isn't giving up on someone if who you aquire you value more. I believe that Jackson will become an allstar on more than one occasion in his career. To me that is a fair amount of value.
When someone proposes that we trade Jackson for 2 months of Beltran, I think that is just a horrible return on my percieved value of Jackson.
BTW, thanks for the spelling correction! I was back and forth on that and just went with it!! My bad!
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07-19-2011, 12:46 PM #45
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07-19-2011, 01:02 PM #47
I think it's a stretch to expect Jackson to increase his power substantially. He projects to have seven home runs this year. How often does a 24 year old with seven home runs end up developing 15-20 home run power. I think that is pretty much the bare minimum for him before he becomes a valuable player.
He could certainly prove me wrong, but until he starts showing power, I don't think he should be a starter.
I would trade him straight up for Beltran. An outfield of boesch dirks wells next year and going forward is just fine. And finding a fourth of to join the party is not difficult.Ajax is only the third most valuable tiger.
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07-19-2011, 01:07 PM #48
Maybe the Yankees could turn him into a 20-homer guy like they turned Granderson into a 40-homer guy.
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07-19-2011, 01:54 PM #49
Dirks' power is kind of an aberration. Most of his home runs are barely down the line, and none of them have even been 400 ft+ yet.
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/deta...21&type=hitter
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07-19-2011, 02:06 PM #50
I'm guessing it's rare, but it's also pretty rare a 23-24 year old is a club's starting centerfielder. Hunter hit 9 home runs between AAA and MLB when he was 24. Victorino was 25 his first full season with Philly (430 some ABs) and he hit 6. Both those guys have hit 30. Rios first season with Toronto was as a 24 year old and he had 10 (just three between Toronto and AAA the year before). He went on to have a couple twenty home run seasons. Marlon Byrd posted a 20 homer season as well...Hit 7 his first full year with the Phillies (as a 25 year old). Ellsbury hit 9 and 8 his first two years with Boston (24 and 25 years old), he's on pass for 20 this year.
There are countless counter-examples though...The point is that Jackson has moved so quickly it's tough to get a great read on him. I get the concern...The K rates and K/BB rates are terrifying.
-Tony
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07-19-2011, 02:31 PM #51
No offense, but that is bunk. Not every player can be a 15-20 HR guy. Why do you believe this is what AJ needs to produce to be valuable?
I'll concede he does need to improve his on base skills and reduce his K rate. But his speed and D are a value that Dirks and Wells don't have, not at his level. Hate Jackson as a player if you want, but I hope DD is patient with him.“I have told you these things, so that in me you may have peace. In this world you will have trouble. But take heart! I have overcome the world.” John 16:33 NIV84
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07-19-2011, 02:52 PM #52
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07-19-2011, 05:05 PM #53
How is that an aberration? I'm not suggesting he is a sure thing 30 homer guy, but there is nothing fluky about being a pull power hitter or getting home runs that don't travel 400 feet. Only two of his home runs were considered JE. Every hitter gets a few JE home runs here and there. He has more power than Jackson, and better plate skills, so it's fair to project him as a better player than Jackson. That's all.
Look, I realize that Jackson can still improve and that he is young enough to do so, but it's also possible that he won't improve.
As for his defense, I find it to be overrated.
All the talk about jackson's value assumes substantial improvement. But I think he hasn't shown much improvement over the last few years. There is a reason his prospect status dropped prior to his rookie season.
This may be all we get with him, and it's not good enough.Ajax is only the third most valuable tiger.
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07-19-2011, 05:09 PM #54
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07-19-2011, 05:57 PM #55
I think people are forgetting that some players just don't hit for power. Some are singles hitters that hit for average, and turn hits into extra base hits with their speed. Jackson had a good year last year, and I think pitchers have figurerd out how to pitch to him. What DD is gambling on is this: Now that the pitchers have adjusted to Jackson, is he a good enough player to adjust to the pitchers and get better? If DD doesn't think so, then trade him immediately before his value decreases anymore. If he thinks he's going to be a good player, then hold onto him. Personally, I would like to shop him around.....see what you could get for him. If it isn't much, hold onto him. I think you could package him and another decent prospect, and grab Gio Gonzalez from Oakland.
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07-19-2011, 07:48 PM #56
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07-19-2011, 08:31 PM #57
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07-19-2011, 08:53 PM #58

Are you guys for real? He is 24 years old, plays center as good as anyone in the league. Hell he's the best center fielder we have had since Chet Lemon. This guy has crazy speed and will be another Tori Hunter when he has a couple more years here....He is at least in the top 15 of center fielders in the game right now....I can live with that...Biggest umpire blunder...ever.....Jim Joyce.......6-2-2010
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07-19-2011, 09:21 PM #59
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07-19-2011, 10:40 PM #60
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Truman, you never cease to amaze me....
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07-19-2011, 11:12 PM #61
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07-19-2011, 11:14 PM #62
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(because the "top" 15 centerfielders in the game would have made this catch somehow better than Jackson?!?)
http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/feed...es-of-the-year
Braves right fielder Jason Heyward and Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson are Sporting News' 2010 rookies of the year, as selected by a panel of 326 Major League Baseball players.
Jackson led all major league rookies in hits (181) and steals (27), while his 10 triples were tied for the lead and his 34 doubles and .293 batting average ranked second.
"Before spring training, we spent quite a few hours together working in the batting cage and getting to know each other. After we acquired him in a trade with the Yankees, I looked at some tapes and saw a few flaws in his swing. But he's an intelligent guy and an athletic guy -- he is able to grasp things quickly," Tigers hitting coach Lloyd McClendon told Sporting News. "By the end of the season, I told our skipper, Jim Leyland, that in three years, Austin will be good for 20 to 25 home runs. He's not just a slash hitter. I expect him to drastically cut down on the strikeouts once he becomes more knowledgeable about opposing pitchers. This year, he exceeded every expectation I had for him."
Yep, that Jackson's a total bum..... why would the Tigers need a guy like this?!?
(lol, your joking right?!?!)
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07-19-2011, 11:20 PM #63
Well, Austin Jackson is currently 18th in WAR among centerfielders this year, so, yeah, that's outside of the top 15. Jackson is a great defender, yes. But he is also currently a below average hitter, despite the fact that his coaches decided to say he was going to be good for 20 to 25 home runs (you realize these are the same coaches that are still pumping up Inge, right)?
I don't recall ever calling him a bum. He's an average player. CF is stacked and right now he is being outplayed by about 15 other CFs. If you want to disagree, be my guest, but I didn't just make that up on my own.Trying my hand at podcasting (updated 5/26): http://ducksonthepod.wordpress.com/
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07-19-2011, 11:24 PM #64
Which of these CFs is not having a better year than Austin Jackson?
Matt Kemp
Curtis Granderson
Jacoby Ellsbury
Andrew McCutchen
Shane Victorino
Michael Bourn
Chris Young
Peter Bourjos
Cameron Maybin
Carlos Gonzalez
Adam Jones
Michael Brantley
BJ Upton
Colby Rasmus
Melky Cabrera
Why is it so unpopular to suggest that Austin Jackson is just an OK player. On this board he has to be either the best thing ever or the worst thing ever. Austin Jackson is an average player, a + glove with a below average bat. There is nothing wrong with that.Last edited by The Truman Show; 07-19-2011 at 11:27 PM.
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07-19-2011, 11:44 PM #65
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Sure thing, when your buddy Mike Minor wins the ROY award this year, call me.
And your WAR argument is amazingly lame. Get ride of Jackson and play who? What is Dirks or Wells WAR, come on, tell us how great they are. Dirks is a -.01 and Wells is a .7. Yea, Austin Jackson is only a 1.8 WAR this season, but last year Jackson was at 2.8. Brandon Beachy's having a great year with Atlanta and his WAR is at 1.7 this year. Golden boy Mike Minor two year WAR total is at -.5 and this year he's at a +.3, So yea, by all means, use WAR to say how bad Jackson is and then tell me the Tiger should trade Jackson and another prospect for Mike Minor? Seriously??
PS: (Updated 06/21/2011) Minor was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett after Tuesday's game to make room on the roster for Brandon Beachy. So I guess Minor will just have to win the 2011 ROY award from AAA right?!?Last edited by STLTiger69; 07-20-2011 at 12:56 AM.
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07-20-2011, 12:38 AM #67
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First- how how long have these guys played vs Jackson?
Let's look at the experiance of the players your comparing Jackson too. Kemps played 6 seasons, Granderson's played 8, Jacoby Ellsbury 5 seasons, Andrew McCutchen played 3, Shane Victorino 9, Michael Bourn 6, Chris Young 8, Peter Bourjos 2,Cameron Maybin 5, Carlos Gonzalez 4, Adam Jones 6, Michael Brantley 3, BJ Upton 7, Colby Rasmus 3, and Melky Cabrera with 7 seasons.. So if experiance counts for anything, are you suprised that only Jackson and Bourjo's are even in this list at all with only 2 years in the major leagues?!?
Secondly, as a measure of how good a player is, did you compare Jackson's good year of 2010 or his bad year of 2011? Do you average his two years to compare them with the other player career numbers, Na, you just pick Jacksons worst season to bolster your argument that as you say "Austin Jackson is an average player, a + glove with a below average bat." based on his WAR for this year. I can use WAR as well to prove my point.
Let's use your logic to run my own how do other outfielders stack up to Austin Jackson's awesomeness and I'm going to use his 2010 season and his WAR of 2.8 and totally ignore this season (like your doing in reverse...) Let's run some numbers on other players worst years and tell me how they look shall we? Tori Hunter in 2004 hit .271 and had a WAR of 1.4, 1954 Hank Aaron hit .280 with a WAR of 1.6, Ricky Henderson 1999 hit .315 and a WAR of 1.7, Al Kaline 1960 hit .287 and had a WAR of 2.4, Lou Brock hit .272 in 1970 and had a WAR of -0.5. Heck, Jackson's 2009 season WAR of 2.8 proves beyond the shadow of a doubt that, as you say that all these other hall of fame players are simply "average players, a + glove with a below average bat" based on there worst years in the majors and Austin Jackson is simply prefection in human form right?!?
You don't agree with me? Why? I'm using WAR like you did??Last edited by STLTiger69; 07-20-2011 at 02:12 AM.
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07-20-2011, 12:49 AM #68
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Um, no, he said;
So quick, in your head or even grab a pen and right down your picks for the "top 15 CF's in the game right now"that come to mind. And remember, Truman says that Austin Jackson is an average player, a + glove with a below average bat and is not in the top 15 CF's playing right now and his proof is Jackson's 2011's WAR. If there are 30 teams with 30 starting center fielders and your rank is #16 or worst, that makes you one of the bottom 50%. Does Jackson's full body or work really rank him in the lower 50% of CF's playing today?!?
Seriously??!?
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07-20-2011, 01:00 AM #69
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PS: I will fess up I keep messing up Jackson's years (saying 2009 when I ment 2010) and Jackson's WAR (which stands at 1.8 for 2011 and 2.8 for 2010) and I have since corrected it in previous posts. I'm sorry about the corrections and it does change the context of my arguments a bit, sorry for the mistakes folks, I'll try and keep a closer look for them next time before I post.
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Last edited by catswithbats; 07-20-2011 at 01:04 AM.
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07-20-2011, 01:44 AM #71
Why do you need WAR to say Jackson is not one of the top 15 CFs in MLB?
First of all, their are only 21 CFs who have played enough to qualify for the batting title, so not being top 15 is more along the lines of being 'really bad' than 'average' let's take a look
OBP: 16
Slugging: 20
OPS: 18
BB%: 6 (here is an area for positivity)
K%: 20 (not so much)
HR: 18
SB: 9
UZR/150: 7
So he's an above average defender and base stealer, and bad in pretty much every aspect of hitting. What about this player suggests: He's a top CF in MLB?
I get it, he's young, and his improving walk rate is an encouraging sign. But he still strikes out a ton and doesn't hit for any power. He's actually striking out MORE THAN HE DID LAST YEAR!! Just because a player is young doesn't mean they will automatically get better, Dirks is young, Wells is young, David Purcey was young once.
By no means am I saying the Tigers should just look to trade Austin Jackson for nothing, but as things stand now he's a below average player at his position.Kobernoooooous
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07-20-2011, 02:37 AM #72
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Let me give a quick tip of the cap to Truman and the rest of you all as I do enjoy our debates as always I'm not trying to attack him personally or anyone else and I do not mean to make it sound so. Everyone on this forum has raised some valid points and many of you are very informed and have well thought out opinions and even if I don’t agree I still do enjoy reading them all. Remember if we all agreed on anything, the world would be a much more boring place!
Honestly the reason why I'm so up and arms about Austin Jackson is that I feel very strongly about fan allegiance changing with the direction if the wind. I specifically mentioned the case of Alex Avila last year. Lots of voices wanted the Tigers to dump him or trade him in 2010 while he "still had value" as a .228 hitter but suddenly now that he's an all star hitting .286, in 2011 I don't hear that same call to trade Avila and get another catcher to replace him or let V-Mart catch full time. How fortunes can change in one year...
Sort of the same Avila story with Austin Jackson in reverse. Do you remember How other teams hitters were saying "wow" when Jackson robbed them of a double or triple for the first time? Were you excited for Jackson in 2010 when you heard rumblings that Jackson was in the running for rookie of the year award? Remember how Jason Heyward and Jackson were being compared to each other as the best rookies in baseball? Did one year (not even one year yet!) convince you that Jackson is not a good player anymore? Do you know Jason Heyward is hitting .224 this year and has a WAR of 1.3 to Jackson's 1.8 WAR? Do you think Heyward is overrated too and the Braves should package him with another player (while he still has some value) to the Tigers for Oliver or Furbush? How about Oliver or Furbush straight up for Heyward, do you think the Braves will go for that as a "steal" for them? Heyward isn't going anywhere I'm quite sure of that with the same confidence that I have that Jackson's not going to be traded this year either. The Tiger organization will give Jackson more time to develop and see what kind of player he may turn into before they make up there mind to trade him.
It's very rare that a player has consistent production through his entire career and consistency between years is not typical. Take a look at Magglio Ordonez's numbers compared to Carlos Beltran's numbers for example. Both great players, both had some injury problems, and frankly both could help any team in their prime. Magglio's worst two years are this year .222 avg and back in 1998 when he hit .282 and finished 5th in ROY voting that year. Beltran's worst years batting average wise were in 2000 when he hit .247 and .225 in 2010.
All I'm saying is that even the best players have bad years. It also shouldn't surprise fans that younger players are typically less consistent performers than players who have a few years of experience in the big leagues under their belt. Sometimes the hardest thing a GM can do is sit there and do nothing with the knowledge that it is the right thing to do with a player and what is best for the team even when the fans may say otherwise.
We are totally free to express our opinions or ratings of players and it's what makes forums fun. It just drives me crazy to no end to hear fans say that a young struggling player needs to be replaced and then in the next breath say "how come our team cannot develop good young players like teams like the Braves do?" or such things. Everybody's got a button or two that can get them going, I'm sorry if Jackson specifically and young player development is one of mine but thanks everybody for listening and puttin' up with me!
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07-20-2011, 03:44 AM #73
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Here's some numbers from Jackson's 2010 season (I think your using his 2011 numbers?). Here's what I found for Jackson's 2010 stats(and some numbers you didn't include that I think are sort of important) and where some other players ranked on that same list for 2010.
Runs 103 1ST! (Kemp 13th, Granderson 16th)
1B 181 1ST!
2B's 34 7th (Kemp 25th)
3B's 10 Tied for 2nd (Kemp 11th, Upton 14th)
Total bases 247 10th (Bj Upton 15th, Curtis Granderson 17th)
WAR 2010 7th (Granderson 15, Kemp 17th, Adam Jones 11th)
OBP: .345 6th (Span 15, Granderson 17, BJ upton 18)
SLG: .400 18th (Adam Jones 11, BJ Upton 15)
OPS: .745 16th (Shane Victorino #15, BJ Upton #17)
SB's 27 11th (Kemp 19, Granderson 12)
HR: 4 20th (ok, you got him)
Now in fairness I had no clue how to pull the 2010 numbers for UZR/150: 7, BB% and K%. I know the K% will be ugly but I am curious about the other two also. My criteria was qualify for a batting title and play at least 50% of your games in CF (I think it should be more than that but 50% seemed inclusive enough)
I've cited 11 areas of stats above for Jackson's 2010 season. I've awarded Jackson 1 point for first place and additional points for worst ranks (11th place = 11 points, 5th =5 points). The Theory being if Jackson is #1 in all rankings he'll have 11 points and 11 divided by 11 = 1 so suprise, if jackson had just 11 points in 11 areas he'd be the #1 outfielder. Guess what? I graded Jackson at 98 points overall and 98/11= a score of 8.9 which means he'd rank around 9th best in the criteria I have provided you above. And just for fun if you dropped HR's out of the mix (come on!) Jackson's rank improves to 8th best with 7.8.
Still awake?
(kidding)
Anyway, my point is how you view a ballplayer'stats is similar taste tasting a ham sandwich. If you think it tastes good on Monday, put 1/2 of the sandwich on the kitchen counter and take another bite again say two months later. How that sandwich tastes varies greatly on when you sampled your data....
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07-20-2011, 08:50 AM #74
Honestly, some of the guys complaining about Jackson are the same guys that said Raburn would be a better than average defender in LF.... based on sabr stats.....
One more time... gotta trust your eyes!
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Jackson hits a ton of line drives and uses the entire field, shows flashes of power, strikes out a ton, great defender, improving in walks and steals. Certainly does not sound like a player we should be "giving up" on. I would only favor trading him if we get an upgrade like Matt Kemp in the process. I like Andy Dirks but Jackson still has more upside.
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07-20-2011, 09:09 AM #76
“but the biggest mistake you can make is to follow your ideas to their logical conclusions. You can make a lot of other [mistakes], and every now and then you can be right. But when you follow your ideas to their logical conclusions you are always wrong.”. - Murray Kempton
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07-20-2011, 09:22 AM #77
I'd be ok with trading Jackson if the right trade came along but I doubt you can get good value for Jackson at this point. Trading him now is probably a bad idea. He's not a star and I don't think he'll ever be one, but he's also not nearly as bad as people make him out to be. He's 24 and he's been consistently above replacement level. And he has plenty of room for improvement.
Slowsilver: They did a study at Baseball Prospectus and found out that bionic parts increase WARP23 by 6.7% on average. Back in the steroid era, steroids only increased WARP23 by 4.6%
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07-20-2011, 09:25 AM #78
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I think the point of this thread (and as evidenced by the spirited debate) is we have alot of decent young outfielders and crappy starting pitching. Some people here (as more than a few GM's might concur) think Jackson has alot of value. As part of a trade, Jackson could help us acquire a starting pitcher that could help us win a division. We have Verlander and . . . nothing else really. A reasonable person can't expect us to win the division with our 2nd half history under Leyland and our starting pitching. We need to make a bold move and if DD can find a GM who thinks Jackson is going to be a star, he might be able to swing a deal. It's not a give up on Jackson thing to me. We have a glut of outfielders, a lack of starting pitching and Jackson is a nice piece in a potential trade. Ask the Yankees if he is a nice piece in a trade. They acquired an all-star outfielder for him.
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07-20-2011, 09:48 AM #79
So far this year, with a normal babip, Jackson has been a 1.0 war player in 384 PAs.
Dirks is 0.4 in 135
Wells is 1.1 in 125
Now, you could argue that dirks and wells would see their defensive value drop if they moved to cf. But they would also get a positional bump, so I'll call it a wash.
A dirks and wells platoon would likely be a better cf than Jackson going forward if you trust this season's numbers.
Jackson is a decent overall player, but being better than replacement level isn't exactly noteworthy. My issue with Jackson is that I think we have better options and we aren't using them.
He obviously has room for improvement, but that's because he isn't very good right now.Ajax is only the third most valuable tiger.
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Shelton - why are HR's your only unit of measurement in power? You don't think a guy with 10 HR's that racks up a bunch of 2B's and 3B's is valuable? I think he's very capable of becoming that type of player.
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