Carlos Guillen...

[Edman85]

I just ran my first Elias numbers for MLBTR this year, and...

Carlos Guillen is a Type B free agent, right on the A/B border. If he comes back reasonably healthy at some point this year, would an arbitration offer make sense?

[Cecil]

I don't see how Guillen could turn down arbitration. I don't see any team offering Guillen more than what he would make in arbitration, plus forfeiting a pick. If they didn't offer Ordonez arbitration last year, I don't see them offering it to Guillen.

[Dawgs]

I dont see him coming back from microfracture surgery this season. By all accounts the rehab goes well for the first 90% but the last 10% is problematic. And as he tries to rehab he will hurt something else. I dont think Guillen plays another game for the Tigers.

[Just Some Dude]

I dont see him coming back from microfracture surgery this season. By all accounts the rehab goes well for the first 90% but the last 10% is problematic. And as he tries to rehab he will hurt something else. I dont think Guillen plays another game for the Tigers.

Read the other day his back has been nagging him. This is a guy that we would all love to see comeback healthy and produce. It doesn't look to promising right now though.

[Shelton]

I could see an offer only if he was type b and agreed to turn it down.

It would take a miraculous comeback and performance at 2nd or 3rd to justify a true offer.

[alwaysthrowheat]

Hopefully he'll agree to turn it down gentleman style. Otherwise, he's obviously not worth an offer.

My question becomes, is the system flawed if Carlos Guillen is a "Type anything" free agent?

[Zack attack]

I don't see how Guillen could turn down arbitration. I don't see any team offering Guillen more than what he would make in arbitration, plus forfeiting a pick. If they didn't offer Ordonez arbitration last year, I don't see them offering it to Guillen.

This!

In reality, Guillen should just retire with the little dignity he has left. Plus, if he accepts then I have no idea where we should play him (looks like it has to be 2B by default). Guillen can barely field anymore and the DH spot is occupied by a more reliable hitter.

[Nastradamus]

this shouldn't even be a question

[TigerNation]

If Guillen agrees ahead of time to turn down the offer, otherwise no.

[C03BRA]

I could see an offer only if he was type b and agreed to turn it down.

It would take a miraculous comeback and performance at 2nd or 3rd to justify a true offer.

I don't understand why we don't do this....several other teams do.

I was surprised we didn't work something out with Damon...especially when he blocked the trade to Boston last season.

[Yoda]

Won't happen.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Barring a true miracle in terms of a Guillen comeback, time to cut bait.

[tater6]

My question becomes, is the system flawed if Carlos Guillen is a "Type anything" free agent?

One would think so.

[STLTiger69]

I don't think the Tigers would run the risk of Guillen accepting arbitration and getting perhaps a few million for a single year and clogging a spot on the MLB roster. Without arbitration, lets face it, Guillen's agent is probably looking at a minor league contract with an invite to spring training with perhaps a few incentives for making real money (so many at bats, so many games started, so many RBI's, etc...) would be about all Guillen would get on the open market...

Also if the Tigers wouldn't offer arbitration to Polanco before he signed a long term deal with Philadelphia, who would the Tigers offer arbitration too?

[The Truman Show]

I don't see how Guillen could turn down arbitration. I don't see any team offering Guillen more than what he would make in arbitration, plus forfeiting a pick. If they didn't offer Ordonez arbitration last year, I don't see them offering it to Guillen.

Teams don't forfeit picks to sign a type B player.

[wanker]

problem with offering guillen arbitration is he'd be guarenteed to make at least like 75% of his current salary or something, he'd be stupid to turn that down.

[STLTiger69]

I think Guillen for his upcoming free agency should consider dumping his current agent Scott Boras and instead retain the services of Dr. Jack Kevorkian....

(I'm joking if Carlos happens to ask....)

[john doe]

I don't think the Tigers would run the risk of Guillen accepting arbitration and getting perhaps a few million for a single year and clogging a spot on the MLB roster. Without arbitration, lets face it, Guillen's agent is probably looking at a minor league contract with an invite to spring training with perhaps a few incentives for making real money (so many at bats, so many games started, so many RBI's, etc...) would be about all Guillen would get on the open market...

Also if the Tigers wouldn't offer arbitration to Polanco before he signed a long term deal with Philadelphia, who would the Tigers offer arbitration too?

Yep.

[Tim Mitchell]

carlos is soft. who would think we would resign him. are ya kiddin me?

[catswithbats]

carlos is soft. who would think we would resign him. are ya kiddin me?

Carlos isn't soft. He's on the DL right now because he gave up his body making a play to seal a win last season.

[Shelton]

problem with offering guillen arbitration is he'd be guarenteed to make at least like 75% of his current salary or something, he'd be stupid to turn that down.

This is not true.

[wanker]

This is not true.

No club may submit a salary figure that is less than 80% of the player's previous year's salary (or 70% of his salary two years' previous).

Not to mention that there hasnt been a free agent since 1994 that actually took a paycut from the previous year through arbitration.

All from baseball prospectus, although the article is a few years old so it may be out of date.

[STLTiger69]

Wanker;

I don't say this often but Shelton is right and in all fairness Wanker please don't feel bad because frankly it is a bit of a confusing rule. There are two groups of players that are elgible for arbitration, those who ARE free agents (not under team control) and those who are not elgible for free agency but are still under team control. The rules against pay cuts applies ONLY to players who cannot be free agents.

"The maximum-cut rule does not apply for free agents in arbitration. The Collective Bargaining Agreement specifically states that the maximum salary reduction rule is inapplicable in free-agent arbitration cases. To clarify, when Joe Sheehan wrote that that Toronto wouldn't risk going to arbitration with Carlos Delgado because of the 80% salary rule, he had his facts wrong. The rule didn't apply to Delgado because of his free-agent status."

Baseball Prospectus | The Arbitration Process

Thus, when Carlos Guillen's contract expires at the end of the year, he would be a free agent and the maximum salary reduction rule would not apply to Guillen's circumstances. A quick nod to Shelton for pointing this out..

[Cecil]

Wanker;

I don't say this often but Shelton is right and in all fairness Wanker please don't feel bad because frankly it is a bit of a confusing rule. There are two groups of players that are elgible for arbitration, those who ARE free agents (not under team control) and those who are not elgible for free agency but are still under team control. The rules against pay cuts applies ONLY to players who cannot be free agents.

"The maximum-cut rule does not apply for free agents in arbitration. The Collective Bargaining Agreement specifically states that the maximum salary reduction rule is inapplicable in free-agent arbitration cases. To clarify, when Joe Sheehan wrote that that Toronto wouldn't risk going to arbitration with Carlos Delgado because of the 80% salary rule, he had his facts wrong. The rule didn't apply to Delgado because of his free-agent status."

Baseball Prospectus | The Arbitration Process

Thus, when Carlos Guillen's contract expires at the end of the year, he would be a free agent and the maximum salary reduction rule would not apply to Guillen's circumstances. A quick nod to Shelton for pointing this out..

That is true but also consider how arbitration works. The Tigers will make their offer and Guillen would make his. An arbitrator than chooses between the two offers. There isn't negotiating, it's one or the other. The Tigers could come in at 3 million but Guillen may come in at 8 million. There's a good chance the 8 million would be selected since he is taking a 4 million dollar pay cut. Guillen isn't even worth 3 million so there is no way the Tigers will win in arbitration. They can't offer 1 million and expect to win. Anything over 1 million would be too much.

[ballmich]

The Tigers place very little value on these supplemental picks. They aren't going to go out of their way to get this pick, by asking Guillen if he would agree to decline the offer. Nor are they going to put any payroll at risk by making the offer, since he is not in the organization's plans for 2012.

I place the odds at about 1,000 to 1, that the Tigers don't offer. Unless DD and Leyland are fired, as they should be, then it will really depend upon who is brought in to replace them.

[STLTiger69]

Cecil;

I agree with you the Tiger's can't simply take a chance on paying Guillen a few million dollars and clogging up a spot on a MLB roster for 2012 by offering him arbitration.

Also I think alwaysthrowheat made a great point in that how could Guillen be an any type free agent A, B, Z (lol) compared with other MLB players at the end of the year. Let's face it, if Guillen is not a A or a B, this whole concept of getting a draft pick if he signs elsewhere is a moot point. No A or B status = no draft picks!

[DontGotSheed]

Carlos Guillen will come back in late August and be the sprak in the lineup to push the Tigers to the post season.

Heard it first here.

[Euphdude]

The Tigers seemingly don't place too much value on draft picks, so they won't make an arbitration offer to Guillen for that purpose. If the Tigers are obligated to offer him 80% of his previous salary at a minimum then there SHOULD be no chance he'll be offered arbitration, although with DD and company anything is possible.

[JonBenke]

When is Guillen supposed to be back .. was the All-Star break pushed back?

[STLTiger69]

I'm trying to figure out who will come back first-Carlos Guillen or Jesus Christ.... and if so, can either be the salvation for 2B position for the Tigers?

[JonBenke]

Can Jesus Christ hit a curve ball?

[T&P_Fan]

At the very least, Jesus could drive in a runner from 3rd with less then 2 outs.

[STLTiger69]

I was trying to look up his minor league stats with the Bethlehem Carpenter's (a former Montreal Expo's minor league affiliate) and so far no luck...

[ballmich]

I just ran my first Elias numbers for MLBTR this year, and...

Carlos Guillen is a Type B free agent, right on the A/B border. If he comes back reasonably healthy at some point this year, would an arbitration offer make sense?

The Tigers won't offer. That is certain, unless we have a regime change, and then it would depend upon who they bring in to run the organization.

But, SHOULD they offer, is a tough question to answer. Guillen's salary makes the offer an expensive one. And his injury history makes this equally as difficult of a choice, even if he comes back to play healthy to end the season.

However, unless Raburn comes out of no where to play a pretty decent 2B, there's no internal solution here. Rhymes and Worth are not answers, in fact are terrible. And Santiago is a FA this winter, not that he was the answer anyways.

And we know that the organization isn't going to put 2B in the hands of Douglas, after having tried to hand 2B over to Sizemore/Rhymes for two years and failed.

In the end I come back to no, they should not offer. But if he's healthy and can play 2B, they should try to re-sign him if they want him back. Something similar to Peralta, Inge and Maggs, although only a 1-year deal I'd hope, given his injury history.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

The problem with Jesus is he won't steal and runs like he is bearing a cross.

[sagnam]

The problem with Jesus is he won't steal and runs like he is bearing a cross.

The real problem with Jesus is he would waste most ABs sacrificing. Two out bunts will kill a rally every time.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

The real problem with Jesus is he would waste most ABs sacrificing. Two out bunts will kill a rally every time.

Well played, Mauer.

[STLTiger69]

Armando Galarraga told me at a card show once that Jesus was a bad teamate, he always walking around the club house saying things like; "It's ok,you just keep walking batters and all I did was die for your sins" or "I am the son of God" and sometimes before Jesus would take to the field he'd look down the dugout and say "Tonight, one of you will betray me..." and Galarraga said that he just couldn't take it anymore and instead he wanted to pitch for Arizona in the minor leagues....

Mr. Bigglesworth, T&P_Fan, JonBenke, sagnam +1 all, darn funny too!!!!

[Freehan_1968]

and sometimes before Jesus would take to the field he'd look down the dugout and say "Tonight, one of you will betray me..."

There can be no debate who he is talking about there.......obviously Leyland.

"Thou shalt place someone who can hit in the number one and two spots in the batting order."

Yep, breaks that one every single game.

[JonBenke]

Well played, Mauer.

+1 ... very well played!