Lynn Henning Exhuberant Column of the Day

[RobSk]

Lynn's really putting this team's starting and relief pitching beyond the '68 and '84 teams. I can see the argument. '68 team had Mclain, Lolich and Wilson in an era of great pitching. The '84 team has Morris, Wilcox, Petry, Berenguer, Bair, with Lopez and Hernandez in relief.

Verlander is perhaps on par with the best of those teams. Lets see about the rest of them.

Tigers stocked with top pitchers | detnews.com | The Detroit News

I think there is an argument that the Tigers current starters *might* be better than '84. I think Verlander and Scherzer are better than Morris and Petry. However, I'd rather have Wilcox than Porcello (for a single year). Certainly Juan Berenguer and Dave Rozema had their problems, including injury. Penny and Coke *could* be better than those guys. However, they could also be quite a bit worse.

However, the bullpen will not be as good in 2011. I feel confident in saying that.

[ROMAD1]

Verlander is better than Morris.

I just put him on the same pedestal...I didn't sort it any more than that. Is he better than '68 Mclain...I don't want to get that much into the weeds.

[ROMAD1]

I think there is an argument that the Tigers current starters *might* be better than '84. I think Verlander and Scherzer are better than Morris and Petry. However, I'd rather have Wilcox than Porcello (for a single year). Certainly Juan Berenguer and Dave Rozema had their problems, including injury. Penny and Coke *could* be better than those guys. However, they could also be quite a bit worse.

However, the bullpen will not be as good in 2011. I feel confident in saying that.

Now that is interesting...I really like this BP.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

I just put him on the same pedestal...I didn't sort it any more than that. Is he better than '68 Mclain...I don't want to get that much into the weeds.

McLain was stupid good in 1968 for a crazy number of innings. Neither Verlander or Morris have come close to delivering that sort of value in any season. The 1968 team really didn't receive great pitching from its' starters outside of McLain.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

The 1984 Tigers allowed the fewest runs in the AL.

If the 2011 Tigers do that, I'll pollute my britches with delight.

[Gehringer_2]

In an era of 5 starters you just about have to have 4 guys as good as the top 3 when comparing to a 4 starter team. I'd agree team has the potential to be as strong at the top as Lolich-McLain-Wilson, or Morris-Petry-Wilcox, but they haven't proved anything yet. For starters, Penny has to stay healthy.

The 84 comparison is also a easy to take different ways since I think this staff is probably more talented, in the sense that I probably wouldn't trade Scherzer and Porcello for Petry and Wilcox straight up (EDIT: as noted by Robsk). Petry only had 4 better than average yrs (81-84) and Wilcox had a once in career yr in 84. But on the other hand, Scherzer and Porcello have yet to combine for anything like that one yr in 84.

[ROMAD1]

Dave Rozema's '84 represents my hope for Joel Zumaya's '11, i.e., Guy who was good a few years before comes back from foolishly-gotten injury and provides a nice contribution for the WS winning team.

[RobSk]

Now that is interesting...I really like this BP.

I'm not saying the 2011 BP will be terrible. 84's bullpen was unbelievably effective. It's got to be one of the top 20 best bullpens ever.

Rob

[ROMAD1]

I'm not saying the 2011 BP will be terrible. 84's bullpen was unbelievably effective. It's got to be one of the top 20 best bullpens ever.

Rob

Fair enough. I think we will be leaving some excellent relievers in Toledo this April.

[Shelton]

I think the tigers will lead the league in runs allowed. I'm serious. The top two are as good as any and the last three are being undervalued. Can't wait to find out.

[Mr.TaterSalad]

If Porcello flops again, Penny can't stay healthy or doesn't have the kind of success he had pre-injury and Coke's journey into the starting rotation proves to be a failure they could also have one of the worst rotations in the AL.

It's all a gamble at this point. If the Tigers had gone out and brought in Shields, Greinke or Garza then I'd bet a lot higher on them here. I believe there are two many variables with this rotation still to be sold that it is A) the division's best and B) possibly the best in the AL.

[tigersrok]

If Porcello flops again, Penny can't stay healthy or doesn't have the kind of success he had pre-injury and Coke's journey into the starting rotation proves to be a failure they could also have one of the worst rotations in the AL.

It's all a gamble at this point. If the Tigers had gone out and brought in Shields, Greinke or Garza then I'd bet a lot higher on them here. I believe there are two many variables with this rotation still to be sold that it is A) the division's best and B) possibly the best in the AL.

The Tigers had one of the worst starting rotations in the AL last season, and they didn't do anything to upgrade it over the offseason. I don't see how anyone can have confidence in Porcello (until he develops a usable secondary pitch) and Coke. I thought the Tigers had to sign a #3-type starter; they signed Brad Penny, who was injured last season & horrible in his stint in the AL a few seasons ago. They have a very questionable starting rotation & no depth in the minors.

[ROMAD1]

Mike Valenti is channeling you guys

[Eric Cioe]

I think the tigers will lead the league in runs allowed. I'm serious. The top two are as good as any and the last three are being undervalued. Can't wait to find out.

Good as any? Good as any?

Justin Verlander is going to ****ing wreck the league this year. Everyone else in the ****ing AL is a *******ed ****ing ***** *** ***** compared to him. Fangraphs blows their load over King Felix, oh my, he gets groundballs, he's the best, yeah, look at his FIP, his WAR, and he's behind Verlander. Why? Because Verlander is a man. He throws so many more pitches than anyone else and that proves he's just the biggest man in the league. Everyone else is a *******ed weeping ***** *** *****.

Also, Scherzer is very good, Porcello is good, Penny is good when healthy, don't you give me any of that "he was awful in the AL" ********, he had awful BABIP luck that half year and he's not being counted on to pitch 200 innings of 3.00 ball, he's being counted on for maybe 120 innings of 4.30. Coke to me is the wildcard but whatever, he'll be fine.

No depth? Oliver looks mostly ready to me. He's always going to have control issues, but he's a lefty who can strike people out and has never been injured. Teams were looking to pay De La Rosa a lot of money to throw 140 injury-riddled innings for them and to walk 5 guys a game. People here were begging Dombrowski to go after injured-riddled Jeff Francis, who was never much good anyway, and I can piss faster than his fastball. And Oliver is free.

If he doesn't work, you've got Furbush and Wilk, who have done well in the minors in their various ways and would be tolerable at worst a 5 guys for a month or two. And if that bombs, you've got a top 5 pitching prospect who has been assigned to AA at 19 and could help in a pinch. So don't give me any of that crap.

This rotation could be pretty great. It might be mid-pack, but I don't really see how it could be any worse than that. I'll call it a top 5 in the AL rotation right now, no problem.

Whose is better?

Tampa has Wade Davis, who isn't very good, and Niemann, who isn't great and he's injury-prone, and Shields, who should bounce back but he's always been homer prone.

Chicago looks good but Buehrle isn't much beyond eating innings, Jackson (yes, even after 11 great starts) is still Jackson, and Peavy is coming off of an awful injury. Beyond Sale, whom they seem set on keeping in their pen, they have absolutely no depth at all.

NY is a mess.

Boston is pretty good but Beckett is a ***** *** *****, Buchholz pitched way over his head last season, and Matsuzaka was never any good to begin with.

LA? Maybe. Haren and Weaver is just about the equal of Verlander and Scherzer, and Santana is real good third, but they're also counting on innings from Kazmir, the league's worst starter for a while now.

Who else is there? Texas? Please. The A's? Anderson can't stay healthy and both Gonzalez and especially Cahill pitched way over their heads last season. No. No one.

People talk about Tampa and Chicago like they are sure things but they really have questions marks just like the Tigers do. What those teams down have is 450 innings of 3.50 ball with the front two of their rotations. So yeah, Shelton, I'm right with you.

[ROMAD1]

Good as any? Good as any?

Justin Verlander is going to ****ing wreck the league this year. Everyone else in the ****ing AL is a *******ed ****ing ***** *** ***** compared to him. Fangraphs blows their load over King Felix, oh my, he gets groundballs, he's the best, yeah, look at his FIP, his WAR, and he's behind Verlander. Why? Because Verlander is a man. He throws so many more pitches than anyone else and that proves he's just the biggest man in the league. Everyone else is a *******ed weeping ***** *** *****.

Also, Scherzer is very good, Porcello is good, Penny is good when healthy, don't you give me any of that "he was awful in the AL" ********, he had awful BABIP luck that half year and he's not being counted on to pitch 200 innings of 3.00 ball, he's being counted on for maybe 120 innings of 4.30. Coke to me is the wildcard but whatever, he'll be fine.

No depth? Oliver looks mostly ready to me. He's always going to have control issues, but he's a lefty who can strike people out and has never been injured. Teams were looking to pay De La Rosa a lot of money to throw 140 injury-riddled innings for them and to walk 5 guys a game. People here were begging Dombrowski to go after injured-riddled Jeff Francis, who was never much good anyway, and I can piss faster than his fastball. And Oliver is free.

If he doesn't work, you've got Furbush and Wilk, who have done well in the minors in their various ways and would be tolerable at worst a 5 guys for a month or two. And if that bombs, you've got a top 5 pitching prospect who has been assigned to AA at 19 and could help in a pinch. So don't give me any of that crap.

This rotation could be pretty great. It might be mid-pack, but I don't really see how it could be any worse than that. I'll call it a top 5 in the AL rotation right now, no problem.

Whose is better?

Tampa has Wade Davis, who isn't very good, and Niemann, who isn't great and he's injury-prone, and Shields, who should bounce back but he's always been homer prone.

Chicago looks good but Buehrle isn't much beyond eating innings, Jackson (yes, even after 11 great starts) is still Jackson, and Peavy is coming off of an awful injury. Beyond Sale, whom they seem set on keeping in their pen, they have absolutely no depth at all.

NY is a mess.

Boston is pretty good but Beckett is a ***** *** *****, Buchholz pitched way over his head last season, and Matsuzaka was never any good to begin with.

LA? Maybe. Haren and Weaver is just about the equal of Verlander and Scherzer, and Santana is real good third, but they're also counting on innings from Kazmir, the league's worst starter for a while now.

Who else is there? Texas? Please. The A's? Anderson can't stay healthy and both Gonzalez and especially Cahill pitched way over their heads last season. No. No one.

People talk about Tampa and Chicago like they are sure things but they really have questions marks just like the Tigers do. What those teams down have is 450 innings of 3.50 ball with the front two of their rotations. So yeah, Shelton, I'm right with you.

Good energy

Will opposing pitchers get a BP screen because they stink so bad against us? :--)

[JonBenke]

They have a very questionable starting rotation & no depth in the minors.

And like that ... he's back

[IdahoBert]

In a world where the ground underneath you shifts, tsunamis obliterate, and nuclear plants melt down, there are still some things you can count on.

[DaYooperASBDT]

If Penny can chip in at least 25 healthy starts, I do see this club leading the league in ERA. Run scoring is a bit more uncertain, hoping for some progress from Avila along with regular time for Raburn. Second base is another wild card as well.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

The 1984 Tigers allowed the fewest runs in the AL.

If the 2011 Tigers do that, I'll pollute my britches with delight.

I'll stand by this sentiment.

The Tigers were 10th in runs allowed in 2010 with 743 allowed. Half(!) the AL allowed at least 40 fewer runs than the Tigers (and a 8th team allowed 39 fewer runs, and that team played in a band box paired with crappy outfield defense). Oakland allowed 117 fewer runs than the Tigers.

Throw on the pile that I think the Tigers defense got worse, I do not think the Tigers are likely to improve 40 to 120 runs in run prevention relative to 8 other teams in the AL.

EDIT: Verlander and Scherzer were pretty good at run prevention in 2010. They could be better - sure - but it ain't likey they are going to shave off more than 10 runs off each. If Porcello simply kept his runs allowed the same, but bumped up his output to 200 IP, you are looking at a 4.00 ERA. Such a change would be quite welcome, but really all you are getting for that relative to 2010 run prevention is 40 fewer innings pitched by the bullpen, which is probably worth around 20 runs relative to 2010. Similarly, I think the Penny + Coke + Oliver + help me make it through August AAA option relative to Galarraga and Bonderman is at best worth 40 runs, but I'd suggest 25 - 30 runs saved is even optimistic.

Optimistically, IMO, the starting rotation could shave 10 + 10 + 20 + 25 = 65 runs if each starter makes significant improvement over his 2010 Tigers counterpart.

The bullpen will probably pitch around 450 innings. I'd be thrilled if we could shave 20 runs out of them (comparable to a 0.4 ERA reduction).

The only way I think the Tigers allow the fewest runs is if every aspect of their pitching staff improved markedly in aggregate, and other teams in the AL fail to perform as well as they did in 2010.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

If the Tigers allow the fewest runs in the AL and their runs scored remain the same relative to league average, one should expect the Tigers to win 10 or more games than they did last year.

[DaYooperASBDT]

I do expect significant improvement - they have subtracted Bonderman, Gaga, Willis, and Bonine. The added Coke innings, Penny's innings, and the bullpen upgrades should shave a lot of runs (but admittedly I haven't done the math yet). Keys will be Penny's health, a bounce back by Porcello, and at least 150 healthy innings from Penny.

[84 Lives!!!]

The Tigers had one of the worst starting rotations in the AL last season, and they didn't do anything to upgrade it over the offseason. I don't see how anyone can have confidence in Porcello (until he develops a usable secondary pitch) and Coke. I thought the Tigers had to sign a #3-type starter; they signed Brad Penny, who was injured last season & horrible in his stint in the AL a few seasons ago. They have a very questionable starting rotation & no depth in the minors.

"CRY me a River" is back in town!!!

[DaYooperASBDT]

The Tigers had one of the worst starting rotations in the AL last season, and they didn't do anything to upgrade it over the offseason.

wut? I'm going to have to disagree - Coke and Penny are going to be a significant upgrade over the crap performances of Galarraga, Bonderman, and Willis.
Penny has learned a lot about pitching of late - especially during his time in St. Louis with Dave Duncan.
Also, did you not watch Max Scherzer pitch a single time during the second half of 2010?

[DET Mr Malefic]

Good as any? Good as any?

Justin Verlander is going to ****ing wreck the league this year. Everyone else in the ****ing AL is a *******ed ****ing ***** *** ***** compared to him. Fangraphs blows their load over King Felix, oh my, he gets groundballs, he's the best, yeah, look at his FIP, his WAR, and he's behind Verlander. Why? Because Verlander is a man. He throws so many more pitches than anyone else and that proves he's just the biggest man in the league. Everyone else is a *******ed weeping ***** *** *****.

Also, Scherzer is very good

I agreed with your post up to this point. Thereafter, total disagreement. I find the concept of strongly believing the Tigers as currently constructed will have a top 2 pitching staff in the AL in 2011 to be completely fantastical thinking. It's difficult to even respond to, other than saying "Well, I guess anything can happen."

As Bigglesworth pointed out, if Porcello takes a large step forward in both stamina and effectiveness, and if the Coke experiment works out favorably, and if Penny can stay healthy and be relatively effective, and if Joaquin Benoit stays healthy and if Ryan Perry takes a step forward and if Dan Schlereth proves able to find the strike zone in major league games, then perhaps we'll have the best staff in the league. It seems quite likely that any of these things will happen, and probably more than one of them. It seems equally unlikely, to me anyway, that they all will happen, and that's kinda what has to happen for us to be the best pitching team in the league. It could happen, but I think boldly proclaiming that it will is just setting expectations way higher than they should be.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Our pitching will suck, but we'll finally score that 1,000 runs!

[RobSk]

The Tigers had one of the worst starting rotations in the AL last season.

You're starting from a mistaken premise, so everything else is crap.

No, they didn't. Their ERA was their worst stat, and they were 11th. Stuff like FIP, K/9, K/BB, they were all 6-9th. That's average, not "one of the worst".

So, with 400 innings from Bad Porcello Results, Bonderman and Gallaragga, they were roughly average. All they have to do is have Porcello not get the worst possible results from his average SP peripherals, then have Penny and Coke/Oliver not be as terrible as Bonderman/Gallaragga, and they will be aboe average. If Porcello and/or Penny is actually above average (like better than 4.20 FIP/ERA), the Tigers can move into the good category. If either of them becomes a good starter (lower than 3.9 FIP/ERA), that's where they have a real chance of being as good as anybody.

I understand the complaining thing is your schtick, so you go- but there is a real possibility that a high talent 21 year old will improve, and that a high talent guy coming off injury will return to some portion of his former ability. Is it a guarantee? Nope. But you suggest it's absurd to think that could happen for either guy, and I think it's reasonable (or even quite probable) to think it could happen for one of them.

Rob

[DaYooperASBDT]

I think the rotation stats from the second half will be more useful for projecting Scherzer and Porcello in 2011. And I'm still confident that Coke/Penny can outperform the craptastic trio that occupied #4 and #5 last year.

[ballmich]

I'm not saying the 2011 BP will be terrible. 84's bullpen was unbelievably effective. It's got to be one of the top 20 best bullpens ever.

Rob

Hernandez and Lopez were awfully good (and threw a lot of innings), but beyond that the bullpen seems pretty unspectacular.

It was good, but I don't know about top 20 of all time. But I admit that I don't know how others stack up.

That 1990 Reds bullpen has to be right up there.

The biggest difference between a great bulllpen in 2011 and one in 1984, is that relieves top out at about 65 innings now. Hernandez and Lopez threw like 130+ innings. Bair threw 90+. So basically you need like two Hernandez's and two Lopez's in a modern day bullpen, just to match the production of those guys in the mid 1980's.

[DaYooperASBDT]

San Diego's bullpen should be beastly this season.

[RobSk]

I agreed with your post up to this point. Thereafter, total disagreement. I find the concept of strongly believing the Tigers as currently constructed will have a top 2 pitching staff in the AL in 2011 to be completely fantastical thinking. It's difficult to even respond to, other than saying "Well, I guess anything can happen."

So, I think this was mostly about SP.

I'm not sure I see how it's "fantastical thinking". The Tigers having one of the best 2 starting staffs in the AL does not require Porcello, Penny, and Coke to all be close to maximum effectiveness.

As Bigglesworth pointed out, if Porcello takes a large step forward in both stamina and effectiveness, and if the Coke experiment works out favorably, and if Penny can stay healthy and be relatively effective, and if Joaquin Benoit stays healthy and if Ryan Perry takes a step forward and if Dan Schlereth proves able to find the strike zone in major league games, then perhaps we'll have the best staff in the league. It seems quite likely that any of these things will happen, and probably more than one of them. It seems equally unlikely, to me anyway, that they all will happen, and that's kinda what has to happen for us to be the best pitching team in the league. It could happen, but I think boldly proclaiming that it will is just setting expectations way higher than they should be.

A team does not have to have 5 guys being above average to have one of the top 2 SP staffs in the AL. Look at Seattle. They got 20 starts from a guy with over a 6 ERA. They got 13 starts from Luke French (4.83). Etc.

With Verlander and Scherzer, the other guys just have to get within spitting distance of average as far as results goes (as opposed to just peripherals). If Porcello or Penny is above average (down in the below 4's area), then it's even more doable.

The A's blew everyone away because they had 4 out of 5 guys with above average results. A couple of those guys are likely to come back to earth this year (Cahill was the reverse Porcello last year, with decent peripherals and INCREDIBLE results).

You don't need that to be near the top when you have 2 excellent starters.

Rob

[RobSk]

Hernandez and Lopez were awfully good (and threw a lot of innings), but beyond that the bullpen seems pretty unspectacular.

It was good, but I don't know about top 20 of all time. But I admit that I don't know how others stack up.

That 1990 Reds bullpen has to be right up there.

The biggest difference between a great bulllpen in 2011 and one in 1984, is that relieves top out at about 65 innings now. Hernandez and Lopez threw like 130+ innings. Bair threw 90+. So basically you need like two Hernandez's and two Lopez's in a modern day bullpen, just to match the production of those guys in the mid 1980's.

Yeah, your last paragraph is my exact point. 277 innings of superb pitching from 2 guys == a great bullpen, almost no matter what the other guys do. .

Rob

[Nastradamus]

Put a Wells/Boesch combo out there in place of Avila and we arguably have the best offense too. Our IF is shaky beyond 1B, but I think with Sizemore in the 2 hole we have a pretty nasty first 7. How many teams are significantly better than Inge and Peralta at the 8 and 9 spots?

[Nastradamus]

I think the rotation stats from the second half will be more useful for projecting Scherzer and Porcello in 2011. And I'm still confident that Coke/Penny can outperform the craptastic trio that occupied #4 and #5 last year.

I agree, both Coke and Penny have shown their talent this Spring IMO. Its probably reasonable to think at least one of them will miss some time, but Oliver looks like he'll be ready to help pretty soon too.

[ROMAD1]

Brayan Villarreal gives Tigers relief with masterful move | detnews.com | The Detroit News

I guess this is from yesterday but he calls the game against the Rangers a "passion play".

I actually like that phrase...kudos to Lynn's journalism professors.

But...Lynn...being Lynn.

[byco42]

Apples to cinder blocks comparison with '68 and '84 staffs, since starters these days are expected to get only 18 outs.

[ROMAD1]

Lynn seeing things?

Twitter

Leyland with another 5-minute press briefing today. Fatigue/hostility now in the picture. 7-Year Itch isn't exclusive to marriages.

[Gehringer_2]

Lynn seeing things?

Twitter

The problem is as the team gets better and expectations grow, the media want to spend more time talking about it, but there really isn't anything to add most days of the baseball season. You win a game, you lose a game.... The interviewers keep pestering JL for something significant about each game, but most games there is nothing significant. So the questions get dumber and more insistent and JL gets irritated.

[Antrat]

Imagine if Jim had to put up with the NY or Boston media blitz everyday.
He should be thankful that he gets to eat while giving pressers here.

[IdahoBert]

I had to do a double take when I read that tweet. It sounded exactly like something Almost Lynn Henning ‏would tweet to satirize the real Henning.

[Tim Mitchell]

If Al Al comes back healthy we can get rid of Schlereth.
When the warm weather gets here and these guys get throwing regularly, this could be one MONSTER bullpen!