2009 Bluhm Memorial Prospect Rankings

[Edman85]

All in one post this year. Thank you to the following for participating:

DaYooper
apabruce
toadhunter
BigToe
TonyJM
TigerFan81371
tiger337
keyser
Edman85
Microline

Three lists are below, first those with rookie eligibility this year.
1. Casey Crosby (5 first place votes)
2. Jacob Turner (4)
3. Scott Sizemore
4. Austin Jackson (1)
5. Alex Avila
6. Daniel Schlereth
7. Ryan Strieby
8. Wilkin Ramirez
9. Casper Wells
10. Andy Oliver
11. Cody Satterwhite
12. Cale Iorg
13. Alfredo Figaro
14. Daniel Fields
15. Robert Weinhardt
16. Casey Fien
17. Brayan Villareal
18. Brennan Boesch
19. Gustavo Nunez
20. Zach Simons
21. Charlie Furbush
22. Thad Weber
23. Avisail Garcia
24. Brent Dlugach
25. Luke Putkonen
26. Brandon Douglas
27. Billy Nowlin
28. Lester Oliveros
29. Adam Wilk
30. Luis Marte

Now, the Baseball America rules list, which includes all players who meet the statistical rookie eligibility, but not the service time eligibility.
1. Casey Crosby (5)
2. Jacob Turner (4)
3. Scott Sizemore
4. Austin Jackson (1)
5. Alex Avila
6. Daniel Schlereth
7. Ryan Strieby
8. Wilkin Ramirez
9. Casper Wells
10. Andy Oliver
11. Cody Satterwhite
12. Cale Iorg
13. Alfredo Figaro
14. Daniel Fields
15. Robert Weinhardt
16. Casey Fien
17. Brayan Villareal
18. Fu-Te Ni
19. Brennan Boesch
20. Gustavo Nunez
21. Zach Simons
22. Charlie Furbush
23. Thad Weber
24. Avisail Garcia
25. Brent Dlugach
26. Luke Putkonen
27. Brandon Douglas
28. Billy Nowlin
29. Lester Oliveros
30. Adam Wilk

Now the 25 and under list, which includes those players who will be 25 years of age or younger as of opening day:

1. Rick Porcello (9)
2. Max Scherzer (1)
3. Casey Crosby
4. Jacob Turner
5. Scott Sizemore
6. Ryan Perry
7. Austin Jackson
8. Alex Avila
9. Daniel Schlereth
10. Ryan Strieby
11. Joel Zumaya
12. Wilkin Ramirez
13. Casper Wells
14. Andy Oliver
15. Cody Satterwhite
16. Cale Iorg
17. Alfredo Figaro
18. Daniel Fields
19. Robert Weinhardt
20. Brayan Villareal
21. Brennan Boesch
22. Gustavo Nunez
23. Zach Simons
24. Charlie Furbush
25. Thad Weber
26. Avisail Garcia
27. Brent Dlugach
28. Luke Putkonen
29. Brandon Douglas
30. Billy Nowlin

[Edman85]

Yes, I was the one who voted for Scherzer over Porcello...

[Who is the Drizzle?]

Thanks a lot for doing this Edman! I don't know enough about anybody outside the top 15-20ish so I didn't rank, but it looks like a great list to me.

Originally Posted by Edman85

Yes, I was the one who voted for Scherzer over Porcello...

Interesting. I think I see your logic. It would not have surprised me, that if Scherzer had been prospect eligible for 2009 (missed by a few IP), he would have been very highly rated, very possibly above Porcello due to the sick K-rates he had at more advanced levels. And in 2009, Porcello had better ERA and W/L, but the peripherals definitely favor Scherzer, again.

So you could definitely argue that Max was more thought of coming into 2009 and that he actually had a better 2009. So yeah I definitely see it, although I would personally stick Porcello at #1 because of the ground ball rate and Max's injury risk. But not by much.

[TigersFan81371]

I don't have my list on me, but I'll dig it up and post later.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Wow, I think the group turned out a very solid list here.
Couple of comments:

12. Cale Iorg - still high on his potential and defense, but another year of offensive struggle could drop him way down the list, I suspect?

13. Alfredo Figaro - no doubt he has quality stuff + arm, and his command at Erie must have been impressive. 2010 will be a key year for him.

15. Robert Weinhardt - his K rate in the fall league sure got my attention, I think he could land a bullpen job this spring?

16. Casey Fien - I like how he attacks the strike zone, but he seems a bit hittable? He will be interesting to follow in 2010.

23. Avisail Garcia - hasn't been on my radar much, to be honest. He has accomplished a lot for such a young age and the scouts really like his tools. Will be following him closely in '10.

25. Luke Putkonen - I didn't have him this high, but the talent is certainly there.

29. Adam Wilk - the return of the "crafty lefty?". My adopt-a-tiger will continue to amaze!

30. Luis Marte - the million dollar question, is he going to be healthy? He was on a roll until he got hurt.

[toadhunter911]

Here's the list I submitted...

Rick Porcello
Max Scherzer
Ryan Perry
Casey Crosby
Scott Sizemore
Alex Avila
Austin Jackson
Daniel Schlereth
Casey Fien
Casper Wells
Jacob Turner
Wilkin Ramirez
Joel Zumaya
Cody Satterwhite
Alfredo Figaro
Cale Iorg
Robert Weinhardt
Dusty Ryan
Brennan Boesch
Andy Oliver
Ryan Strieby
Kory Casto
Danny Worth
Fu-Te Ni
Zach Simons
Josh Rainwater
Billy Nowlin
Brent Dlugach
Brayan Villareal
Brent Clevlen
Charlie Furbush
Deik Scram
Daniel Fields
Jared Gayhart
Melvin Mercedes
William Rhymes
Anthony Shawler
John Murrian
Avisail Garcia
Clemente Mendoza
Luis Marte
Brendan Wise
Gustavo Nunez
Luke Putkonen
Alexander Nunez
Giovany Soto
Scott Green
L.J. Gagnier
Lester Oliveros
Brandon Douglas
Yorfrank Lopez
Rawley Bishop
Alden Carrithers
Thad Weber
Adam Wilk
Rayni Guichardo
Jay Sborz

[TigersFan81371]

1. Rick Porcello
2. Casey Crosby
3. Alex Avila
4. Scott Sizemore
5. Jacob Turner
6. Andy Oliver
---Daniel Schlereth
7. Ryan Perry
8. Joel Zumaya
---Max Scherzer
---Austin Jackson
9. Wilkin Ramirez
10. Ryan Strieby
11. Cale Iorg
12. Casper Wells
13. Robbie Weinhardt
14. Cody Satterwhite
15. Daniel Fields
16. Alfredo Figaro
17. Lester Oliveros
18. Casey Fien
19. Gustavo Nunez
20. Brandon Douglas
21. Thad Weber
22. Audy Ciriaco
23. Zach Simons
24. Luke Putkonen
25. Charlie Furbush
26. Wade Gaynor
27. Brayan Villarreal
28. Jared Gayhart
29. Javier Azcona
30. Billy Nowlin
31. Luis Marte
32. Ramon Lebron
33. Avasail Garcia
34. Francisco Martinez
35. Austin Wood
36. Melvin Mercedes
37. James Robbins
38. Steven Moya
39. John Murrian
40. Brent Dlugach
41. Brennan Boesch
42. Andy Dirks
43. Gabriel Purroy
44. Scott Green
45. Adam Wilk
46. Fu-Te Ni
47. Dusty Ryan (D'oh!)
48. Jay Sborz
49. Deik Scram
50. Brandon Hamilton

[Edman85]

Originally Posted by TigersFan81371

1. Rick Porcello
2. Casey Crosby
3. Alex Avila
4. Scott Sizemore
5. Jacob Turner
6. Andy Oliver
---Daniel Schlereth
7. Ryan Perry
8. Joel Zumaya
---Max Scherzer
---Austin Jackson
9. Wilkin Ramirez
10. Ryan Strieby
11. Cale Iorg
12. Casper Wells
13. Robbie Weinhardt
14. Cody Satterwhite
15. Daniel Fields
16. Alfredo Figaro
17. Lester Oliveros
18. Casey Fien
19. Gustavo Nunez
20. Brandon Douglas
21. Thad Weber
22. Audy Ciriaco
23. Zach Simons
24. Luke Putkonen
25. Charlie Furbush
26. Wade Gaynor
27. Brayan Villarreal
28. Jared Gayhart
29. Javier Azcona
30. Billy Nowlin
31. Luis Marte
32. Ramon Lebron
33. Avasail Garcia
34. Francisco Martinez
35. Austin Wood
36. Melvin Mercedes
37. James Robbins
38. Steven Moya
39. John Murrian
40. Brent Dlugach
41. Brennan Boesch
42. Andy Dirks
43. Gabriel Purroy
44. Scott Green
45. Adam Wilk
46. Fu-Te Ni
47. Dusty Ryan (D'oh!)
48. Jay Sborz
49. Deik Scram
50. Brandon Hamilton

Not to impugn your list, but I'm a little curious as to why you have those three relievers (especially Zumaya) ranked above Scherzer...

[TigersFan81371]

I probably had Zumaya too high, which actually surprises me since I am one of of those guys who is skeptical about him being able to stay healthy for a whole season. I think the biggest think he had going for him, in my opinion, was the MLB experience. Trying to figure out how to rank a veteran amongst prospects was a tricky challenge. If I guessed wrong by underestimating Scherzer, so be it. After reading some of the post-trade feedback from the perspectives of the Diamondback faithful, there were red flags about his durability and delivery. I may have let their opinions influence me a little more than the opinions of the Tiger faithful. So be it.

[Edman85]

Originally Posted by TigersFan81371

I probably had Zumaya too high, which actually surprises me since I am one of of those guys who is skeptical about him being able to stay healthy for a whole season. I think the biggest think he had going for him, in my opinion, was the MLB experience. Trying to figure out how to rank a veteran amongst prospects was a tricky challenge. If I guessed wrong by underestimating Scherzer, so be it. After reading some of the post-trade feedback from the perspectives of the Diamondback faithful, there were red flags about his durability and delivery. I may have let their opinions influence me a little more than the opinions of the Tiger faithful. So be it.

I'm not criticizing at all... just curious. Without discussing these things, this is no fun :)

For the record, MLB Innings:
Scherzer 226
Zumaya 171

And if Scherzer has medical red flags, what does Zumaya have?

[TigersFan81371]

By MLB experience, I was thinking service time, not IP.

As far as durability goes, I think it's more important that a starter is durable than a reliever because a starter is going to be counted on for more innings.

Beyond that, I've really got nothing. There was enough info available for me to be able to make smarter choices in where I slotted in the new guys, and I really should've done a better job of sorting through it and digesting it. I'm disappointed in the way I haphazardly made those last minute changes for the sake of being done, because I did take the time to do as much homework as I could when it came to putting the original list together. Of course, even after being fairly happy with what I submitted, there were a few more tweaks I would've liked to make after the fact (a couple guys a little too high and a couple too low).

[DaYooperASBDT]

I wasn't brave enough to post my list here, lol.

[Edman85]

Oh, don't worry... the password to the gmail account where everything was sent is very easy to figure out and several people have it...

[apabruce]

My list was posted in the minor league thread after I sent it to Edman in November.

[ballmich]

I enjoy reading the collective propsect rankings of those here on the forum.

I feel much better about our top 20 prospects right now than I have during any season recently. And it's really a nice mix of high end talent, plus guys that project to contribute at the major league level quickly. I'd still like to see us really improve that next tier of talent from 20-30, and then I guess the key is to perpetuate the system's talent by filling in with quality draft picks and signing of non-US born players as we graduate players to the majors (or they churn off). But in general, I like where our system is trending.

[ballmich]

I am a little surprised to see Ciriaco and Sborz missing from the rankings. I'm not terribly high on Ciriaco myself, but clearly the organization likes him and it seemed like MTS liked him as well. Especially the discrepancy in the ranking between Iorg and Ciriaco I find interesting. I do like Iorg better but I don't think there's that big of a gap there.

Sborz, although injured a bit last year, seems to be a high impact RP prospect and is awfully close to contributing at the major league level. Maybe I just hold him in too high regard because I want to say that the Tiger's hit home with a 2nd round pick at some point during my lifetime. Perhaps he is overlooked because we have so many RP prospects at this point, but I have him ahead of some of those on the list.

Lower level SP like Furbush, Putkonen, and Webber are really just fringe top 30 for me. I really like to see convincing performance at AA before vaulting them up this high, but once they show it, I'd move them up quickly. I'm just not there with these guys yet, short of posting a K rate like Villareal or Crosby.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Originally Posted by ballmich

SP like Furbush, Putkonen, and Webber are really just fringe top 30 for me. I really like to see convincing performance at AA before vaulting them up this high, but once they show it, I'd move them up quickly. I'm just not there with these guys yet, short of posting a K rate like Villareal or Crosby.

Of those 3 I think I had Furbush rated the highest, but I would have to double check. I did have Sborz in my Top 50 for what it's worth.

[TigersFan81371]

Originally Posted by DaYooperASBDT

I wasn't brave enough to post my list here, lol.

That's weak, man! I posted mine, glaring oversight and all. The guy who left Jacob Turner out of his top 10 posted his list. Surely you couldn't have anything too embarassing on yours.

[TigersFan81371]

I'm a little disappointed that more people didn't participate, especially considering how many posters we have in the GR and Lakeland areas that have been able to see many of these guys in person. Their perspective would been interesting.

[toadhunter911]

Originally Posted by TigersFan81371

That's weak, man! I posted mine, glaring oversight and all. The guy who left Jacob Turner out of his top 10 posted his list. Surely you couldn't have anything too embarassing on yours.

Jacob Turner has not thrown a professional pitch yet. I think 11 is a good slot until he does...

[Dunkin Darvin]

Originally Posted by toadhunter911

Jacob Turner has not thrown a professional pitch yet. I think 11 is a good slot until he does...

So Strasburg wouldn't be a top 10 prospect in the Tigers system?

[toadhunter911]

Originally Posted by Dunkin Darvin

So Strasburg wouldn't be a top 10 prospect in the Tigers system?

If Turner were as good a prospect as Strasberg, then yes. By all accounts he's not, so therefore he isn't that high on my list.

[Microline133]

Not having Jacob Turner in a top ten prospects list for the Tigers is an egregious error...I'm sorry, it is.

[Dunkin Darvin]

Originally Posted by toadhunter911

If Turner were as good a prospect as Strasberg, then yes. By all accounts he's not, so therefore he isn't that high on my list.

I have a feeling Strasburg is somewhat overrated based on ESPN and others hyping him up beyond believe. The casual fan is probably expecting a guy that is going to consistently throw a 103 MPH fastball with Steve Carlton's curve and Pedro's changeup. I'm sure he'll be a top of the rotation guy for a long time (assuming he stays healthy) and a great pitcher but people are making him out to be the best ever.

I could be off, but I bet the difference between Strasburg and Turner isn't as great as one would think. Especially considering one is 21 with three years of college ball and the other is 18. When you are ranking prospects it isn't really about how many innings they have played in the minors or anything like that it is more about projecting how good a guy could be.

[apabruce]

I too would like to see greater participation in the prospect rankings. I've been a
Tigers fan for 50 years, but I only started following the minor league teams since about 2005. It has really enhanced the fan experience. When the Tigers blow a game, it's nice to come downstairs to the computer and read about some sterling performance by a prospect. During midsummer, there are 8 teams going, so there's almost always something to cheer about.