MLB Winter Meetings/Granderson Jackson Trade Thread

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by tiger337

I don't think emotional attachment to Granderson had that much to with the length of this thread. On another site maybe but I don't think that's true here. We have had ridiculously long threads about very minor trades like the Cody Ross deal. I think some are still upset about that trade. This trade was a big deal and would have been long regardless of who was involved.

dammit Lee, you scooped my post!

[Who is the Drizzle?]

Oh come on. Of course emotion has something to do with it. Being a fan has everything to do with emotion, otherwise why would anybody care about sports?

Furthermore, there's nothing wrong with emotion being a part of the calculation as to whether or not you like the trade, and from a management perspective it should be a consideration as to the team image and ticket sales.

That said, if people are talking wins and losses, it's a different story, and I think people on both sides have been making objective arguments when assessing the trade on the field. If you're biased one way or another on a subject, your arguments better damn well be based on something substantial otherwise people will think you're a tool or a shill.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Emotion certainly played a part in my thought process initially. When I first heard that Dombrowski was shopping Curtis and Jackson, I thought he had lost his mind and decided to punt 2010 altogether. After further reflection, I do still view this as a long-term move but some of the returns, like Scherzer, could be immediate. I'm still concerned that Austin Jackson may get "rushed" but who knows?

[lesgoblu02]

I know emotion sure played a part in every game last season when opposing managers would effectively remove Granderson as a threat after the 6th inning.

[tiger337]

I would argue that if Cabrera ever gets traded, there is going to be a really really long thread and I don't think most people have an especially great emotional attachment to him - other than loving his production.

[Oblong]

Right.... the Matt Joyce thread had 28 pages.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by lesgoblu02

I know emotion sure played a part in every game last season when opposing managers would effectively remove Granderson as a threat after the 6th inning.

ops by inning

1 .784
2 .698
3. .829
4. 1.032
5. .685
6. .543
7. .790
8. .710
9. .988
10+ 1.264

I don't have the lh/rh breakdown but the PAs didn't go down much until the 9th.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by Oblong

Right.... the Matt Joyce thread had 28 pages.

Exactly. Even allowing for the fact that Granderson was a more important cog than Matt Joyce, I still think emotion played a part in why this thread is so huge. And, as Drizzle said, there's nothing wrong with that. If emotion didn't play a part in sports, we wouldn't be here in the first place.

Saying the Granderson trade affected people emotionally is not an indictment on MTS members' ability to discuss the trade objectively. It's not meant as a personal insult to anyone in particular.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by tiger337

I would argue that if Cabrera ever gets traded, there is going to be a really really long thread and I don't think most people have an especially great emotional attachment to him - other than loving his production.

True, but I'll bet you five Hot N Ready pizzas that if Inge were ever traded, the thread would be longer than if Cabrera were traded.

[JonBenke]

Originally Posted by Oblong

Right.... the Matt Joyce thread had 28 pages.

Classic thread, and one of my all time favorites!

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

I'll bet you five Hot N Ready pizzas that if Inge were ever traded, the thread would be longer than if Cabrera were traded.

It would depend on who was involved in the trade and what side arguments came up.

[JonBenke]

Originally Posted by tiger337

It would depend on who was involved in the trade and what side arguments came up.

I agree, and I think, with this board, the thread would be larger and if we got say three top tier prospects for Cabrera, over one or two major leaguers.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by tiger337

It would depend on who was involved in the trade and what side arguments came up.

True. But all things being equal, if we got what was generally agreed upon as fair value for either player, I still think the Inge thread would be longer, because there's just something about Brandon that stirs people's emotions.

Emotions are a huge part of sports. A quick glance through this thread will show you that. There was lots of emotion on display, both about Granderson and other things like the snobbery of University of Michigan fans. And, as said before, there's nothing wrong with that. If these athletes didn't generate some kind of emotion sports would be pretty boring to watch. I enjoy loving some players and hating others. Without that, it's just a bunch of guys running around!

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

Emotions are a huge part of sports. A quick glance through this thread will show you that. There was lots of emotion on display, both about Granderson and other things like the snobbery of University of Michigan fans. And, as said before, there's nothing wrong with that. If these athletes didn't generate some kind of emotion sports would be pretty boring to watch. I enjoy loving some players and hating others. Without that, it's just a bunch of guys running around!

Nobody is arguing whether emotion is part of sports.

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

True. But all things being equal, if we got what was generally agreed upon as fair value for either player, I still think the Inge thread would be longer, because there's just something about Brandon that stirs people's emotions.

When have we have "generally agreed" upon anything here?

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Who is the Drizzle?

Oh come on. Of course emotion has something to do with it. Being a fan has everything to do with emotion, otherwise why would anybody care about sports?

Furthermore, there's nothing wrong with emotion being a part of the calculation as to whether or not you like the trade, and from a management perspective it should be a consideration as to the team image and ticket sales.

A. I never claimed emotions did not impact the post total. I claimed it didn't have the effect that Sims seemed to suggest.

B. I (nor Lee) never claimed or suggested there was anything wrong with emotions as being part of a calculation or as a fan.

Originally Posted by Who is the Drizzle?

That said, if people are talking wins and losses, it's a different story, and I think people on both sides have been making objective arguments when assessing the trade on the field. If you're biased one way or another on a subject, your arguments better damn well be based on something substantial otherwise people will think you're a tool or a shill.

Yup. It seems to me a large to overwhelming majority of the posts in this thread contain reasoned, sound arguments and claims on both sides of the issue. That doesn't scream out emotional attachment to me, but that's just me.

I think people posted largely because it was what to post about. It was the middle of the winter and a blockbuster deal. Not only that, a controversial blockbuster deal that could go either way. Plus this thread contains more than just that topic, incidentally.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

Exactly. Even allowing for the fact that Granderson was a more important cog than Matt Joyce, I still think emotion played a part in why this thread is so huge.

Sure emotion played a part in it. My sense on your prior commentary is you thought that the thread is maybe 2X or 3X bigger than it would be without the 'emotion' factor. Is my sense of your opinion right, or is it over-stated? Under-stated?

Had the Matt Joyce trade succeeded or failed, the impact on the Tigers is probably 5 times smaller than the possible range of outcomes Granderson/Jackson trade. So it doesn't surprise me the thread is so much bigger.

Plus there is a more here than just that trade talk. There was the run-up to the trade as well as other unrelated topics.

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

And, as Drizzle said, there's nothing wrong with that. If emotion didn't play a part in sports, we wouldn't be here in the first place.

Nobody argues this.

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

Saying the Granderson trade affected people emotionally is not an indictment on MTS members' ability to discuss the trade objectively. It's not meant as a personal insult to anyone in particular.

I nor Lee suggested it would be an indictment, nor did either of our responses suggest we were insulted. We simply disagreed with your take.

[84 Lives!!!]

Does this thread qualify for "Novel", or "Novella" status? Could we get it published?

[Charles Liston]

Originally Posted by Hongbit

WTF Eric? This post is totally uncalled for.

Talking about worst poster of the year after only 1 month. Some of us who hope to contend for this award have barely gotten started in 2010. This was supposed to be my year and now you've really put me behind the 8 ball. I wasn't planning on my first barrage of bad posts until the full team reported in March. Rats. I guess I better get to work on the "Dontrelle Needs Another Contract Extension" thread right now.

You already have the Lifetime Achievement award so you can't win the annual award anymore.

[ToledoTigerFan]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

One other interesting thing looking at Grandy's splits is that he did better away from Comerica Park. I've always been under the impression that his style of hitting was suited to Comerica, but the stats don't bear that out. He isn't significantly better on the road, but he has been better over his career.

He probably got most of his triples at Comerica, though.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by ToledoTigerFan

He probably got most of his triples at Comerica, though.

not that big of a difference - 30 at home 27 on the road. He really was quite a bit better on the road though - .785 OPS at home .869 on the road. There's enough plate appearances for it to mean something too. Getting out of Comerica might be a great move for him.

[Scottwood]

Comerica does tend to allow more triples but it also suppresses doubles. It does sway slightly towards a hitters park and that does go against conventional wisdom. I see it mentioned by quite a few sites that Comerica is a pitcher's park and I don't know why that is still believed. Park factors tend to vary year to year, but in each of the last 3 years, Comerica Park has produced an environment that favors the hitter.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth

Sure emotion played a part in it. My sense on your prior commentary is you thought that the thread is maybe 2X or 3X bigger than it would be without the 'emotion' factor. Is my sense of your opinion right, or is it over-stated? Under-stated?

Man, I don't know. I don't have a number for you. I just think emotion has colored many Tiger fans' attitudes about this trade. If you're asking me to quantify exactly how much, I have no idea whatsoever.

Had the Matt Joyce trade succeeded or failed, the impact on the Tigers is probably 5 times smaller than the possible range of outcomes Granderson/Jackson trade.

I'll leave that sort of numerical speculation to you. I have no idea how to put a number on losing Joyce vs. Granderson. If you want to say it's 5 times more, I won't argue with you.

I nor Lee suggested it would be an indictment, nor did either of our responses suggest we were insulted. We simply disagreed with your take.

Well, when someone says this to me:

This is standard "attack the person, not the argument" argumentation, and frankly, it's annoying as heck.

...I take it that they're insulted. Or at least annoyed. And I say again: I wasn't talking about you, or anyone in particular. If I have something negative to say about you personally, believe me, you'll know it. I was talking about Tiger fans as a whole. I don't think this thread would be as big if not for some fans' emotions. That's got nothing directly to do with you or anything you've posted. Some fans during this thread admitted that their initial complaints about the trade were guided by emotion. If you weren't the author such emotion-laden posts, then I obviously am not talking about you.

[Scottwood]

Originally Posted by FloridaTigers

Why is Porcello projected to do so poorly? How are these projections run?

As Lee mentioned, his K numbers last year were pretty brutal and it is tough to succeed if you cannot miss bats. Plus, b/c he has thrown so few innings, we need to apply a lot of regression to his original numbers. I think he is a bit of an outlier but a computer system is not going to pick that up and it shouldn't be expected too. Overall, I'd say that most pitching projections are pretty awful. If a pitcher has 3 to 4 years in the big leagues, and barring injury, I think we can get a general idea what they will offer. But, there are a lot of rotations that are made up of guys who are not veterans, and then those rotations will not look good in the projection systems. Given that pitchers change their true talent level more so that hitters, have injuries at a greater rate and can add a new pitch to their arsenal, it is just hard to project them. Given the variability in defensive ratings, it is also hard to predict defense. Thus, a team built around pitching and defense, like the Mariners, is probably going to be underrated by the projection systems. That is something we will need to research more and improve in the coming years. I doubt DD thinks we will have the 3rd worst staff in the AL, but we will see what happens.

[Who is the Drizzle?]

Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth

A. I never claimed emotions did not impact the post total. I claimed it didn't have the effect that Sims seemed to suggest.

B. I (nor Lee) never claimed or suggested there was anything wrong with emotions as being part of a calculation or as a fan.



Yup. It seems to me a large to overwhelming majority of the posts in this thread contain reasoned, sound arguments and claims on both sides of the issue. That doesn't scream out emotional attachment to me, but that's just me.

I think people posted largely because it was what to post about. It was the middle of the winter and a blockbuster deal. Not only that, a controversial blockbuster deal that could go either way. Plus this thread contains more than just that topic, incidentally.

I don't think you can really quantify things, but I think if CG wasn't such a good and well-liked person people wouldn't care as much (i.e. less posts). I think on this site more than any other, the posts are sound and reasoned, but that doesn't mean the 'emotional attachment' isn't driving those sound and reasoned posts.

It's kind of the same mechanism that drives this board. I mean I wasn't here back then but if you can make legendary threads about Cody Ross and Matt Joyce without most of the posts being idiotic, that to me says you care enough to post but you can still make sense while doing it.

[Duane B. Sims]

Okay, since I've been asked to quantify my position, here goes nothing:

Using this forum's search function, I input the keywords "Cabrera" and "trade." Lots of theads came up. This seems to be the main trade thread:

Via XM radio... Cabreara/Willis


There are a lot more threads which discuss the Cabrera trade (as there are many other Granderson threads), but this seems to be the main thread people posted in reaction to the trade that sent Maybin and Miller to Fla. in exchange for Dontrelle and Miggy.

It's a whopping 8 pages long.

Here's another one, which seems to be the "official" thread after the rumors were solidified:

Willis and Cabrera to the Tigers

Five pages long.

Maybe there's another "main trade thread" I'm not seeing. Here's the search results from December, 2007, during the time the trade was announced, if you want to look for yourself:

MotownSports.com Message Board - Search Results


On that page and on subsequent pages, I don't see anything approaching an 85 page thread. In fact, if you add up all the threads about the trade which were started a week or so after it was announced, I still don't think it would add up to 85 pages.

Just to be safe, I went back and input the search terms "trade" and "Maybin." Again, I found nothing approaching an 85-page thread.

If I've searched wrong, please correct me.

BTW, here is the thread from when the Tigers acquired HOFer Gary Sheffield:

Sheffield is a Tiger

Thirteen pages long. 13 pages.

So, yeah, I think the discussion of Curtis Granderson's trade has been colored by something other than his on-field performance. And I don't mean that as a personal insult to those of you who have discussed the trade without emotion.

[Scottwood]

How many of these 85 pages is dedicated to simply talking about Granderson? I know there were a couple pages tied up where we talked about the positives and disadvantages of WAR and I wrote about WPA/LI and REW. This turned into more of an "Official Off season Thread" rather than one simply devoted to Curtis Granderson.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by Scottwood

How many of these 85 pages is dedicated to simply talking about Granderson? I know there were a couple pages tied up where we talked about the positives and disadvantages of WAR and I wrote about WPA/LI and REW. This turned into more of an "Official Off season Thread" rather than one simply devoted to Curtis Granderson.

Hell, I don't know, and I don't feel like counting. But even if we cut it in half, it still is way more than when we acquired Cabrera and Willis, unless I've searched wrong.

And even if I did, I think I'm on solid ground by saying a lot of Tiger fans like Granderson as a person, and that colors their opinion of him as a ballplayer.

Why is this simple statement being treated as though it were an outlandish claim? I get the feeling some people are defending the honor of this board, as if to say "we're above such emotional nonsense here." In fact, earlier on in the thread, someone pretty much came out and said just that.

I just don't understand how such a simple statement can be argued so strongly, or why anyone would feel the need to argue it in the first place. Lots of fans let their opinions of Grandy as a person infiltrate their opinion of his as a ballplayer. If he weren't such a nice guy, I don't think we'd have an 85-page thread about him.

That's not exactly a controversial statement.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

Hell, I don't know, and I don't feel like counting. But even if we cut it in half, it still is way more than when we acquired Cabrera and Willis, unless I've searched wrong.

.

That wasn't a controversial trade. Practically everybody liked the trade so there was not much to argue about.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by tiger337

That wasn't a controversial trade. Practically everybody liked the trade so there was not much to argue about.

And your point is ... what? That my statement about the Grandy trade being colored by some fans' emotions is wrong? Of course, a lot of people didn't like the trade. That's my whole point: that some of them didn't like it, in part at least, because Grandy is a nice guy and they hated to see him go.

So what are you saying, exactly? That the 85 pages aren't because some fans feel an emotional attachment to Grandy? You seem to be taking an opposite stance as me with your post, so I can only assume you're taking an opposite stance from the post you responded to. Right? If not, what, then what is it you're arguing against?

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by tiger337

I don't think emotional attachment to Granderson had that much to with the length of this thread. On another site maybe but I don't think that's true here. We have had ridiculously long threads about very minor trades like the Cody Ross deal. I think some are still upset about that trade. This trade was a big deal and would have been long regardless of who was involved.

This statement doesn't jibe with your more recent claim that the reason there wasn't as much discussion about the Cabrera trade is because most people agreed with it. Because both the Cabrera/Willis and Sheffield trades also were "big deals."

I think I have shown that this trade would most definitely not "have been long regardless of who was involved." I provided you two examples where that didn't happen, both of which involved acquiring almost certain Hall of Famers.

Now, you're backtracking and saying the only reason there wasn't much discussion about those moves was because they weren't controversial. And you prove my point exactly: One reason why the Grandy trade is so controversial is because people like his personality.

You seem to be claiming that the people on this site are somehow above discussing the Granderson trade without emotion. I think you're wrong. That's my opinion, and I'm sticking to it. But it isn't meant to insult anyone personally. Some people here reacted with emotion. I'm still not understanding why this statement is garnering such strong opposition.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

This statement doesn't jibe with your more recent claim that the reason there wasn't as much discussion about the Cabrera trade is because most people agreed with it.

I think I have shown that this trade would most definitely not "have been long regardless of who was involved."

I provided you two examples where that didn't happen, both of which involve acquiring almost certain Hall of Famers.

Now, you're backtracking and saying the only reason there wasn't much discussion about those moves was because they weren't controversial. And you prove my point exactly: One reason why the Grandy trade is so controversial is because people like his personality. That's my opinion, and I'm sticking by it.

The Cody Ross trade was a very controversial move and there was lots of discussion about it considering the caliber of players involved. So, how does this statement go against my claim?

Your Sheffield and Cabrera examples were not controversial trades. Most people liked both trades.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by tiger337

The Cody Ross trade was a very controversial move and there was lots of discussion about it considering the caliber of players involved. So, how does this statement go against my claim?

Your Sheffield and Cabrera examples were not controversial trades. Most people liked both trades.

Again, Lee, you said "This trade was a big deal and would have been long regardless of who was involved."

I showed you that your statement isn't true. The Cabrera and Sheffield trades also were big deals and combined they didn't get as many as 85 pages.

And, once again, the very reason the Granderson trade is controversial in the first place is because so many people like him as a person. In my opinion, of course.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

Again, Lee, you said "This trade was a big deal and would have been long regardless of who was involved."

I showed you that your statement isn't true. The Cabrera and Sheffield trades also were big deals and combined they didn't get as many as 85 pages.

And, once again, the very reason the Granderson trade is controversial in the first place is because so many people like him as a person. In my opinion, of course.

I don't think the Sheffield trade was that big of a deal. It was one injury prone AAA starter and two A ball relievers for an aging slugger. It also wasn't very controversial. The Cabrera trade certainly was a big deal in terms of impact players but most felt the Tigers won the deal so the wasn't much to argue. When that deal went down, everyone was pumped. I think even t-rok liked it. Biggy gave a list of reasons why the Granderson deal was a unique trade beyond people liking Granderson's personality. I really think you have to go back to the Weaver trade to find a deal that was so controversial.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by tiger337

I don't think the Sheffield trade was that big of a deal. It was one injury prone AAA starter and two A ball relievers for an aging slugger. It also wasn't very controversial. The Cabrera trade certainly was a big deal in terms of impact players but most felt the Tigers won the deal so the wasn't much to argue. When that deal went down, everyone was pumped. I think even t-rok liked it. Biggy gave a list of reasons why the Granderson deal was a unique trade beyond people liking Granderson's personality. I really think you have to go back to the Weaver trade to find a deal that was so controversial.

All this is true. And all this does absolutely nothing to change my opinion that if people didn't like Granderson so much we woudln't have an 85-page thread. How long would the thread be if Granderson had a dour personality? I have no idea, but I don't think it would be anywhere near 85 pages.

But you're moving the goalposts. Originally you said, referring to the Granderson trade, "This trade was a big deal and (the thread) would have been long regardless of who was involved."

You didn't qualify that statement by adding "if the trade was controversial." You added that qualifier only after I went through past threads and showed that your statement was wrong. You can say the Sheffield trade was no big deal, but we do agree that the Cabrera trade was a "big deal," don't we? I assume that's stipulated.

What else can I say? I think emotion colors a lot of people's opinions of Granderson as a ballplayer, on this board and others. I'm not specifically saying you do this, or anyone else in particular. But some do. Some have admitted as such in this thread. I again am not sure exactly what it is you're arguing for or against. That the Granderson trade was controversial? I thought that was something else which already was stipulated.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

But you're moving the goalposts.
.

I don't think I am. I think we just don't agree.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by tiger337

I don't think I am. I think we just don't agree.

Okay, then you don't agree with my position that some fans' opinions are colored by Granderson's personality. I don't see how you could logically disagree with that statement, which is the only one I'm making here, but you're certainly entitled to your opinion.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

Okay, then you don't agree with my position that some fans' opinions are colored by Granderson's personality.

I'm sure there are fans in Michigan whose opinions are colored by Granderson's personality. I live in Massachusetts so I don't know many Tigers fans except people here. I don't think most of the contributors to this thread participated as much as they did because they are colored by Granderson's personality. If Granderson had a personality like Polanco or Guillen, I believe this thread would have been just as long.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by tiger337

I'm sure there are fans in Michigan whose opinions are colored by Granderson's personality. I live in Massachusetts so I don't know many Tigers fans except people here. I don't think most of the contributors to this thread participated as much as they did because they are colored by Granderson's personality. If Granderson had a personality like Polanco or Guillen, I believe this thread would have been just as long.

I don't know exactly how many posts were colored by emotion, but I'd bet a lot are. I don't know how many, but I do think some fans, on this board and elsewhere, overrate Curtis because he's a nice guy. They may not come out and say that while criticizing the trade, and their posted criticisms may be well-reasoned. That doesn't necessarily mean their viewpoint wasn't originally skewed by their opinion of Grandy as a person. And because there are valid arguments to be made on either side of this trade, we have a long discussion. If I like Grandy as a person, I don't have to search far to find valid baseball-related reasons why we should've kept him.

As you said, there are several reasons why we have an 85-page thread. And all I've ever said is, emotion is one of those reasons.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

I don't know exactly how many posts were colored by emotion, but I'd bet a lot are. I don't know how many, but I do think some fans, on this board and elsewhere, overrate Curtis because he's a nice guy. .

This is exactly what I thought you were getting at and I disagree. I don't see anybody overrating Granderson. Maybe your friends are doing that in Michigan but I don't see that happening in this thread.

[Scottwood]

I think Granderson is basically a 4 win player. I don't feel that way b/c he may be a nice guy. I feel that way b/c that is the level he has played at from 06-09, that is what most of the projections will peg him at for next year and I expect his offense to bounce back.