MLB Winter Meetings/Granderson Jackson Trade Thread

[Los Gatos]

Originally Posted by DaYooperASBDT

Wow ... wasn't that back in the early 1960's? I remember that wife swapping deal being mentioned
in Jim Bouton's book "Ball Four" - which is a great read BTW.

Early 70's. More than just wife swapping. They traded everything: wives, kids, houses, dogs. Peterson and Kekich.

[Scottwood]

Tom Tango did a brief rundown on Granderson's platoon splits:

I linked to Granderson’s splits, who has a .270 wOBA against LHP (685 PA) and .380 against RHP (2211 PA). (If David wants to wow us, when he does his leaderboards, give us the “differential”, and also shows us the batter handedness on that table.) Andy said that for LHH, that you would regress the observed split (110 points in this case) 50% toward the mean if you had 1000 PA against LHP. In this case, with 685 PA, you would regress 1000/(1000+685) or 60% toward the league observed splits for LHH, which I think is like 27 points.

So, you regress 110 60% toward 27, or 110*.4 + 27*.6 = 60. So, our estimate of Granderson’s handedness split is .060 in wOBA. He’s a career .358 wOBA, with 24% PA against LHP. We can reconfigure his observed split to be:
.358 = .24(x) + .76 (x+.060)

So, his LHP adjusted-observed split is .312 and his RHP split is 60 points higher or .372. This is his observed baseline. If he’s a true .350, as opposed to his observed career .358, you bring him down by 8 points on both sides.

In any case, with his excellent fielding, even his poor hitting against LHP means he’s an average player. When you are an average player against the platoon, this is not really the kind of guy you need to be platooning. (Unless of course you already have a good platoon partner, so you might as well take advantage when you can.)

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde...data/#comments

[Duane B. Sims]

So the Tigers traded away an average player. All the other hullaballoo is because of Curtis being a nice guy (and he is).

I doubt there would be an 84 page thread if the Tigers had traded away another average player who didn't have Curtis's personality. This isn't a criticism, just an observation.

[Who is the Drizzle?]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

So the Tigers traded away an average player. All the other hullaballoo is because of Curtis being a nice guy (and he is).

I doubt there would be an 84 page thread if the Tigers had traded away another average player who didn't have Curtis's personality. This isn't a criticism, just an observation.

I think Tom was saying that Granderson would be expected to be average against LHP, because he would get 'regressed up' to a more normal platoon split. Against RHP he would be considered well above average, and above average overall.

I'm not sure I agree with the method, but if the method has been shown to be somewhat accurate over the years, I can't argue with it, and I don't see anything particular with Granderson that would make him a special case. But it just seems weird to regress one side of the platoon split up towards the mean while leaving the other side alone (or maybe he just didn't get into that side of it).

[RobSk]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

So the Tigers traded away an average player. All the other hullaballoo is because of Curtis being a nice guy (and he is).

I doubt there would be an 84 page thread if the Tigers had traded away another average player who didn't have Curtis's personality. This isn't a criticism, just an observation.

Dude, you misread it. It said he's an average player "against the platoon". That means that CG is an average player AGAINST LEFTIES.

Rob

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by RobSk

Dude, you misread it. It said he's an average player "against the platoon". That means that CG is an average player AGAINST LEFTIES.

Rob

Then print out whatever method was used to come to this conclusion so I can wipe my butt with it!

Because any method that would call Granderson's Mendoza line performance against lefties "average" is worth less than dollar store toilet paper, even factoring in defense.

[RobSk]

Originally Posted by Who is the Drizzle?

I think Tom was saying that Granderson would be expected to be average against LHP, because he would get 'regressed up' to a more normal platoon split

But it just seems weird to regress one side of the platoon split up towards the mean while leaving the other side alone (or maybe he just didn't get into that side of it).

Yeah, I think the idea was to figure out if you should be running a straight platoon with Granderson. Obviously his performance vs righthanders doesn't enter into that question as much (assuming he's good against the opposite hand, which obviously he is). So the answer to that question appears to be 'no', unless you have someone with massive platoon splits the other way who doesn't give much away defensively. Brett Gardner and the other Yankees' CF candidates do not fit that description.

Yet again, the whole "the only reason you think Granderson is anything but crap is that you just LOOOOOOOVE him" theme goes up in smoke. No matter how many times it's debunked, it keeps getting trotted out, over and over.

As someone summarized: Granderson is a good player. He got traded for players whose future value is relatively unclear at this time. We'll see how it works out.

Could we stop the bashing, please?

Rob

[RobSk]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

Then print out whatever method was used to come to this conclusion so I can wipe my butt with it!

Because any method that would call Granderson's Mendoza line performance against lefties "average" is worth less than dollar store toilet paper, even factoring in defense.

In other words: You're willing to use "evidence" you don't understand to support your point when you think it says one thing, but not even willing to consider it when you learn is says something that doesn't support your point.

Awesome.

You can do the work for yourself, or just keep on blowing smoke. I'm betting you just ignore the facts, and keep on blowing smoke.

Rob

[Eric Cioe]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

Then print out whatever method was used to come to this conclusion so I can wipe my butt with it!

You are the worst poster of 2010 so far.

Does Lee do awards for that stuff, too?

Signed,

2008 RotY

[Hongbit]

Originally Posted by Eric Cioe

You are the worst poster of 2010 so far.

Does Lee do awards for that stuff, too?

Signed,

2008 RotY

WTF Eric? This post is totally uncalled for.

Talking about worst poster of the year after only 1 month. Some of us who hope to contend for this award have barely gotten started in 2010. This was supposed to be my year and now you've really put me behind the 8 ball. I wasn't planning on my first barrage of bad posts until the full team reported in March. Rats. I guess I better get to work on the "Dontrelle Needs Another Contract Extension" thread right now.

[Eric Cioe]

Originally Posted by Hongbit

WTF Eric? This post is totally uncalled for.

Talking about worst poster of the year after only 1 month. Some of us who hope to contend for this award have barely gotten started in 2010. This was supposed to be my year and now you've really put me behind the 8 ball. I wasn't planning on my first barrage of bad posts until the full team reported in March. Rats. I guess I better get to work on the "Dontrelle Needs Another Contract Extension" thread right now.

If Cabrera hit .800 in April, we'd be talking about him as a frontrunner for MVP. It's never too early. You're different because you usually come on strong in the second half. blueadams is going to emerge in October making lineup cards for 2011.

Shelton is also on my shortlist for his lack of activity. I might even try to sneak under the radar in August when the Tigers are 8 games out and I'm still totally convinced they're in the hunt.

[84 Lives!!!]

Originally Posted by Hongbit

...Talking about worst poster of the year after only 1 month. Some of us who hope to contend for this award have barely gotten started in 2010...

All I need is a good run of "out-of-LF" posts... or a classic 84 Lives!!! meltdown (haven't had one of those in a good long while...)!

Don't worry Hongbit... there's still time...

[Scottwood]

Originally Posted by Who is the Drizzle?

I think Tom was saying that Granderson would be expected to be average against LHP, because he would get 'regressed up' to a more normal platoon split. Against RHP he would be considered well above average, and above average overall.

I'm not sure I agree with the method, but if the method has been shown to be somewhat accurate over the years, I can't argue with it, and I don't see anything particular with Granderson that would make him a special case. But it just seems weird to regress one side of the platoon split up towards the mean while leaving the other side alone (or maybe he just didn't get into that side of it).

The reason they do that is b/c he needs at least 1000 PA's against lefties to begin to get an accurate read on him from a statistical perspective. This was discussed in "The Book," and there have been other studies done on this published online. So, they need to regress his PA against lefties when projecting to the future b/c we don't have enough data on him to get an accurate read (in other words, its a small sample size). As always, he may be an outlier and maybe the regression does not work as well for him, but it will work for most players.

This is yet another area where you can blend the stats/research and scouting. Maybe DD and our scouts saw something in his approach against lefties that they didn't think he'd be able to correct and didn't feel as if he would regress that much against lefties? I'm not sure.

[ToledoTigerFan]

Originally Posted by FloridaTigers

Love "Ball Four". Read "Behind The Mask" by Freehan too. Interesting see the 1969 season through another team, especially the Tigers.

I have a copy of Behind the Mask. It's getting a little old and tattered, but still readable. It probably cost 3 bucks or so back then. Ball Four was extremely controversial when it came out, but the subject matter would appear tame by today's standards. I remember loving the book. Jim Bouton had a couple good years, then fizzled to nothingness.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Originally Posted by Hongbit

WTF Eric? This post is totally uncalled for.

Talking about worst poster of the year after only 1 month. Some of us who hope to contend for this award have barely gotten started in 2010. This was supposed to be my year and now you've really put me behind the 8 ball. I wasn't planning on my first barrage of bad posts until the full team reported in March. Rats. I guess I better get to work on the "Dontrelle Needs Another Contract Extension" thread right now.

I clinched this one on January 1st, fellas. Don't even bother breakin a sweat.

[sportz4life]

Originally Posted by DaYooperASBDT

I clinched this one on January 1st, fellas. Don't even bother breakin a sweat.

I have numerous pieces of private MTS evidence that say..I am currently the leader in the FEB clubhouse.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by RobSk

In other words: You're willing to use "evidence" you don't understand to support your point when you think it says one thing, but not even willing to consider it when you learn is says something that doesn't support your point.

Awesome.

You can do the work for yourself, or just keep on blowing smoke. I'm betting you just ignore the facts, and keep on blowing smoke.

Rob

Huh? Explain to me, in English, how Granderson is average against lefties. I wasn't aware that he was Willie Mays out in center field, which is what he'd have to be to make up his horrible batting performance against them.

I misunderstood the article to say Grandy was an average player, which I agree with. But then you explained that the article was saying he was average against lefties. To me, that's ridiculous. He was horrible against lefties, and his above average (not great) defense didn't make up for it.

What facts am I ignoring? Granderson sucks against lefties. It's a fact.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by Eric Cioe

You are the worst poster of 2010 so far.

Is this really necessary? I didn't insult you, or say anything to you. What gives?

[TigersSlappy]

SI.com's Jon Heyman and the New York Post's Joel Sherman, both tweeted today that Marcus Thames has signed a one-year, minor league deal with the New York Yankees that will pay him $900,000 if he makes the 25-man roster.

Thames is almost a lock to make it, however, considering the makeup of the Yankee roster. The club is loaded with left-handed bats, including switch hitter Randy Winn, who hit poorly versus left-handed pitching a year ago.

Thames could see time in both outfield corners as well as the occasional action at first base or DH, where the oft-injured Nick Johnson and two switch hitters play.

Mark Teixeira needs a day off here and there, too, and using Thames instead of Johnson, at least exclusively, helps Johnson stay off the disabled list.

Thames has a career .845 OPS versus left-handed pitching over his career, including .867 the past three seasons.

The Tigers East.....

[RobSk]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

Huh? Explain to me, in English, how Granderson is average against lefties.

This seems a bit more reasonable than suggesting that I'm to provide you with toilet paper.

I wasn't aware that he was Willie Mays out in center field, which is what he'd have to be to make up his horrible batting performance against them.

I misunderstood the article to say Grandy was an average player, which I agree with. But then you explained that the article was saying he was average against lefties. To me, that's ridiculous. He was horrible against lefties, and his above average (not great) defense didn't make up for it.

What facts am I ignoring? Granderson sucks against lefties. It's a fact.

Basically, it's a question of what evidence you consider, and what you're trying to do.

First, what are we trying to do? Are we trying to evaluate the value of Granderson's past performances, or are we trying to predict what he'll do in the future?

The regression work that Tango is doing is (I think) attempting to predict the future. He's trying to figure out what kind of player Granderson is, as opposed to what the value of his performances in the past was.

Then it's a question of what evidence you consider. He's considering Granderson over his career. CG has had bad years against lefties with the bat and mediocre years.

So in considering all the data, including CG's decent 2008 against lefties, his "excellent" defense (in Tango's words), he's saying that it is likely that Granderson's offensive performance against lefties will regress to a more average level, and that considering his defense, he IS an average player. Not that his 2009 offensive performance against lefties is "average", but that his overall value against lefties is likely to be average in the future.

So the conclusion is, he is not a good candidate for platooning, barring a situation where you have a guy with great platoon splits in the other direction, who doesn't kill you defensively. Not an easy job in CF.

Rob

[Who is the Drizzle?]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

Huh? Explain to me, in English, how Granderson is average against lefties. I wasn't aware that he was Willie Mays out in center field, which is what he'd have to be to make up his horrible batting performance against them.

I misunderstood the article to say Grandy was an average player, which I agree with. But then you explained that the article was saying he was average against lefties. To me, that's ridiculous. He was horrible against lefties, and his above average (not great) defense didn't make up for it.

What facts am I ignoring? Granderson sucks against lefties. It's a fact.

I just think it's funny that when you misread the conclusion it was a great article, but when you realized that you misread the conclusion it suddenly became toilet paper.

That just seems to indicate that the argument doesn't matter to you, only the conclusion.

[RobSk]

Originally Posted by Who is the Drizzle?

I just think it's funny that when you misread the conclusion it was a great article, but when you realized that you misread the conclusion it suddenly became toilet paper.

That just seems to indicate that the argument doesn't matter to you, only the conclusion.

That was my fundamental problem with the response as well.

Rob

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by RobSk

This seems a bit more reasonable than suggesting that I'm to provide you with toilet paper.

I put a smiley face on that comment because I didn't want it to come across as a personal insult to you, which is something I wasn't trying to do. But my point, that I think Curtis is horrible, not average, against lefties, is still valid, in my opinion.

Basically, it's a question of what evidence you consider, and what you're trying to do.

First, what are we trying to do? Are we trying to evaluate the value of Granderson's past performances, or are we trying to predict what he'll do in the future?

I'm just evaluating him as a player based on what he's done. I don't know what he'll do in the future, but he hasn't shown that he's getting better against lefties.

The regression work that Tango is doing is (I think) attempting to predict the future. He's trying to figure out what kind of player Granderson is, as opposed to what the value of his performances in the past was.

That's cool. And if someone thinks that Grandy will eventually stop being a black hole against lefties, then who am I to argue? I certainly don't have a crystal ball. Now, I may offer a differing opinion, but nobody really knows what will happen. Predictions are all opinion, although you use stats to formulate that opinion.

A look at Grandy's stats tells me I don't see him getting much better against lefties. But I don't know if that's something he'll concentrate on more in the future, or if the hitting backdrop at Yankee Stadium enables him to see the ball against lefties better than Comerica, or what. I just don't see him getting better, although I could be wrong.

So in considering all the data, including CG's decent 2008 against lefties, his "excellent" defense (in Tango's words), he's saying that it is likely that Granderson's offensive performance against lefties will regress to a more average level, and that considering his defense, he IS an average player. Not that his 2009 offensive performance against lefties is "average", but that his overall value against lefties is likely to be average in the future.

I guess the rub lies in the defense then. I personally see Curtis as a good centerfielder, but he's not as good in CF as he is bad against lefties while batting. So, in my opinion, it comes short of equalling out.

So the conclusion is, he is not a good candidate for platooning, barring a situation where you have a guy with great platoon splits in the other direction, who doesn't kill you defensively. Not an easy job in CF.

Rob

That's almost a no-brainer. The manager would have to weigh the right-hander's offense and defense against Curtis's and decide whether it's worth it to replace Curtis. Of course.

But if a decent replacement was available, I'd platoon CG. If not, obviously, I'd simply drop him in the order against lefties.

[Scottwood]

CHONE's projected standings.

http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/optimist2010.htm

He has us as the 2nd worst offense in the AL, 4th best defensive team in the AL and 5th in MLB and the 3rd worst pitching staff in the AL. As I've said numerous times, our pitching staff is just not going to project well in any statistical projection for a number of reasons and that kills us in projected standings like this. A great bullpen and good years from Porcello and Bonderman would really skew the projections and throw them for a loop.

Edit: The excel document is at the bottom of the original link with a complete breakdown of everything. Just glancing through it, Porcello projects as the tied for 4th worst starting pitcher. Galaragga and Robertson project as the tied for 13th worst starting pitchers. Given that and the fact that bullpens are really hard to project on a year to year basis, that should give you a general idea why our pitching staff rates so poorly despite DD's and Leyland's beliefs that it will be good. Porcello might be an outlier given his upside and youth and it doesn't know that Bonderman might be healthy. Verlander is projected as the 6th best starter and Cabrera is projected as the 3rd best hitter, so there is that.

[Imminent Threat]

Originally Posted by Hongbit

WTF Eric? This post is totally uncalled for.

Talking about worst poster of the year after only 1 month. Some of us who hope to contend for this award have barely gotten started in 2010. This was supposed to be my year and now you've really put me behind the 8 ball. I wasn't planning on my first barrage of bad posts until the full team reported in March. Rats. I guess I better get to work on the "Dontrelle Needs Another Contract Extension" thread right now.

My best work is already behind me, so it can only go down from here. DOn't be surprised if I overtake him, easily in fact!

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

Huh? Explain to me, in English, how Granderson is average against lefties. I wasn't aware that he was Willie Mays out in center field, which is what he'd have to be to make up his horrible batting performance against them.

I misunderstood the article to say Grandy was an average player, which I agree with. But then you explained that the article was saying he was average against lefties. To me, that's ridiculous. He was horrible against lefties, and his above average (not great) defense didn't make up for it.

What facts am I ignoring? Granderson sucks against lefties. It's a fact.

First, the post was talking about Granderson's entire career and what he can be expected to do in the future. It wasn't just talking about 2009 as some like to do. Tom Tango certainly does not think that Granderson has been an average player throughout his career.

I think his conclusion is that Granderson is average against lefties when considering the following:

(1) Most lefties don't hit lefties well

(2) His Righty/lefty split is unusually big and probably not sustainable. So, he'll likely hit a little better versus lhp in the future. He'll still be below average though.

(3) he's a good fielder playing a demanding position. So, that brings him up to average.

You don't have to agree with it but that is what he was saying in simple terms. Tango thinks that Granderson is an above average player overall.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Who is the Drizzle?

But it just seems weird to regress one side of the platoon split up towards the mean while leaving the other side alone (or maybe he just didn't get into that side of it).

He regressed the split with fewer at bats which makes some sense. He has the equivalent of one full season against LHP so you wouldn't expect his averages to be stable. It might be appropriate to regress his results a little versus RHP too but he would still be above average against them.

[Scottwood]

Originally Posted by tiger337

Tango thinks that Granderson is an above average player overall.

If he would have talked about his overall perception of him, he'd rate him as an All Star/4 win player, etc.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Hongbit

WTF Eric? This post is totally uncalled for.

Talking about worst poster of the year after only 1 month. Some of us who hope to contend for this award have barely gotten started in 2010. This was supposed to be my year and now you've really put me behind the 8 ball. I wasn't planning on my first barrage of bad posts until the full team reported in March. Rats. I guess I better get to work on the "Dontrelle Needs Another Contract Extension" thread right now.

Don't worry Hongbit. Much like the Gold gloves, these awards are based largely on reputation. You will get full credit for your several years of crappy posts even if some new guys do worse than you this year. Also remember that pre-season performance is forgotten pretty quickly. A couple of really asanine posts in an August game thread versus the Twins is the kind of thing that people remember when it comes time to vote on awards.

[Dunkin Darvin]

Originally Posted by Scottwood

CHONE's projected standings.

http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/optimist2010.htm

He has us as the 2nd worst offense in the AL, 4th best defensive team in the AL and 5th in MLB and the 3rd worst pitching staff in the AL. As I've said numerous times, our pitching staff is just not going to project well in any statistical projection for a number of reasons and that kills us in projected standings like this. A great bullpen and good years from Porcello and Bonderman would really skew the projections and throw them for a loop.

Edit: The excel document is at the bottom of the original link with a complete breakdown of everything. Just glancing through it, Porcello projects as the tied for 4th worst starting pitcher. Galaragga and Robertson project as the tied for 13th worst starting pitchers. Given that and the fact that bullpens are really hard to project on a year to year basis, that should give you a general idea why our pitching staff rates so poorly despite DD's and Leyland's beliefs that it will be good. Porcello might be an outlier given his upside and youth and it doesn't know that Bonderman might be healthy. Verlander is projected as the 6th best starter and Cabrera is projected as the 3rd best hitter, so there is that.

You can add into the fact that they are hard to project that you don't really know what Sizemore or Jackson will be. If those two can step-up and Guillen can stay healthy for a year the offense may be close to league average rather than the bottom of the league. Which should be good enough to make a run at the AL central considering how good the pitching and defense should be.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by tiger337

First, the post was talking about Granderson's entire career and what he can be expected to do in the future. It wasn't just talking about 2009 as some like to do. Tom Tango certainly does not think that Granderson has been an average player throughout his career.

I think his conclusion is that Granderson is average against lefties when considering the following:

(1) Most lefties don't hit lefties well

(2) His Righty/lefty split is unusually big and probably not sustainable. So, he'll likely hit a little better versus lhp in the future. He'll still be below average though.

(3) he's a good fielder playing a demanding position. So, that brings him up to average.

You don't have to agree with it but that is what he was saying in simple terms. Tango thinks that Granderson is an above average player overall.

All that sounds fair enough, although I do disagree. I was responding to the notion that Grandy is average against lefties. I don't think he is anywhere close. And I'm not just taking last year into account, either.

In his entire career against lefties, Curtis has batted a cool .210, with a nifty .270 OBP, .344 SLG and .614 OPS. To me, a player would have to be an incredible defensive center fielder in order to make up for that horrible offensive performance and be called "average against lefties." I think Curtis falls short of that in my opinion. He's a good fielder. I'll even say he's a darn good fielder. But those offensive numbers are terrible.

If I was a manager who had a righthanded hitter who was decent offensively and could play a decent center field, I'd platoon him with Grandy. I'd trade decent offense and decent defense for above average defense and horrible offense. Just one man's opinion.

[Duane B. Sims]

One other interesting thing looking at Grandy's splits is that he did better away from Comerica Park. I've always been under the impression that his style of hitting was suited to Comerica, but the stats don't bear that out. He isn't significantly better on the road, but he has been better over his career.

[FloridaTigers]

Originally Posted by Scottwood

CHONE's projected standings.

http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/optimist2010.htm

He has us as the 2nd worst offense in the AL, 4th best defensive team in the AL and 5th in MLB and the 3rd worst pitching staff in the AL. As I've said numerous times, our pitching staff is just not going to project well in any statistical projection for a number of reasons and that kills us in projected standings like this. A great bullpen and good years from Porcello and Bonderman would really skew the projections and throw them for a loop.

Edit: The excel document is at the bottom of the original link with a complete breakdown of everything. Just glancing through it, Porcello projects as the tied for 4th worst starting pitcher. Galaragga and Robertson project as the tied for 13th worst starting pitchers. Given that and the fact that bullpens are really hard to project on a year to year basis, that should give you a general idea why our pitching staff rates so poorly despite DD's and Leyland's beliefs that it will be good. Porcello might be an outlier given his upside and youth and it doesn't know that Bonderman might be healthy. Verlander is projected as the 6th best starter and Cabrera is projected as the 3rd best hitter, so there is that.

Why is Porcello projected to do so poorly? How are these projections run?

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

All that sounds fair enough, although I do disagree. I was responding to the notion that Grandy is average against lefties. I don't think he is anywhere close. And I'm not just taking last year into account, either.

In his entire career against lefties, Curtis has batted a cool .210, with a nifty .270 OBP, .344 SLG and .614 OPS. To me, a player would have to be an incredible defensive center fielder in order to make up for that horrible offensive performance and be called "average against lefties." I think Curtis falls short of that in my opinion. He's a good fielder. I'll even say he's a darn good fielder. But those offensive numbers are terrible.

If I was a manager who had a righthanded hitter who was decent offensively and could play a decent center field, I'd platoon him with Grandy. I'd trade decent offense and decent defense for above average defense and horrible offense. Just one man's opinion.

I also don't really agree that he is average versus lefties, not until he actually proves he can hit them like he did in 2008 for more than one year. I was just explaining Tango's reasoning. I do think too much has been made of his futility versus LHP when you consider that 75% of his at bats come against RHP which he mashes. It prevents him from being a great player but he's still been an above average player for his career overall. And being a nice guy has nothing to do with it (although that part is appreciated separate from his performance).

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by FloridaTigers

Why is Porcello projected to do so poorly? How are these projections run?

He is projected to do poorly because his k/ip is so low. Not many pitchers can have such a low k/ip and do well for a long time. I personally think he will increase his k rate substantially in the near future but a projection would not pick that up. I don't think there is a really good projection system for pitchers yet.

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by tiger337

I also don't really agree that he is average versus lefties, not until he actually proves he can hit them like he did in 2008 for more than one year. I was just explaining Tango's reasoning. I do think too much has been made of his futility versus LHP when you consider that 75% of his at bats come against RHP which he mashes. It prevents him from being a great player but he's still been an above average player for his career overall. And being a nice guy has nothing to do with it (although that part is appreciated separate from his performance).

Oh, I agree. I wasn't saying the only reason people hated to see him go was because he's a nice guy. But I bet if he hadn't been such a polite, good-looking, intelligent young man we wouldn't have a thread this long, that's all.

If the Tigers had traded another player of equal talent who wasn't so nice, it would not have gotten the outcry the Grandy trade did. That's all I'm saying.

[RobSk]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

Oh, I agree. I wasn't saying the only reason people hated to see him go was because he's a nice guy. But I bet if he hadn't been such a polite, good-looking, intelligent young man we wouldn't have a thread this long, that's all.

If the Tigers had traded another player of equal talent who wasn't so nice, it would not have gotten the outcry the Grandy trade did. That's all I'm saying.

FWIW, Granderson's personality has not entered into my thinking in the least.

All my arguments have been fact based, and any player with Granderson's numbers and abilities would have gotten the same consideration from me.

This is standard "attack the person, not the argument" argumentation, and frankly, it's annoying as heck..

Rob

[Duane B. Sims]

Originally Posted by RobSk

FWIW, Granderson's personality has not entered into my thinking in the least.

All my arguments have been fact based, and any player with Granderson's numbers and abilities would have gotten the same consideration from me.

This is standard "attack the person, not the argument" argumentation, and frankly, it's annoying as heck..

Rob

Dude, I never said you were pining over Granderson, or that your arguments aren't based on facts. I think emotion enters into why we have an 80-something page thread, but I never said you were the reason why.

If you thought I was talking about you, you're mistaken. If I have something to say specifically about you, I promise I'll make that clear. I was talking about Tiger fans as a whole.

[tiger337]

I don't think emotional attachment to Granderson had that much to with the length of this thread. On another site maybe but I don't think that's true here. We have had ridiculously long threads about very minor trades like the Cody Ross deal. I think some are still upset about that trade. This trade was a big deal and would have been long regardless of who was involved.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Duane B. Sims

Dude, I never said you were pining over Granderson, or that your arguments aren't based on facts. I think emotion enters into why we have an 80-something page thread, but I never said you were the reason why.

If you thought I was talking about you, you're mistaken. If I have something to say specifically about you, I promise I'll make that clear. I was talking about Tiger fans as a whole.

I think that relatively few posts in this thread express ideas based solely or largely in the popularity of Granderson, or even suggest it was a factor in an analysis. In fact, I think there have been far more posts about people claiming another's dissenting opinion(s) were based in the dissenter over-valuing Granderson for personal reasons.

I think emotion had some impact, but not impact on this thread as you seem to suggest.

I think the trade was controversial because there was a perfect storm of conjecture, including whether:

a. this signalled a fire sale,
b. this was a shrewd move by dealing Granderson at his peak value (relative to salary) vs. DD discounting to much Granderson due to a relatively poor 2009,
c. it was necessary to trade Granderson to get Scherzer,
d. acquiring relief arms meant the 2008 draft strategy failed,
e. Granderson's value as a platoon player would justify his salary moving forward,
f. who will play OF in the coming years,
g. whether Lynn Henning had inside info.

as well as other varying topics.