Blind Squirrel finds nut..Henning gets it right

[sportz4life]

Last Updated: November 13. 2009 1:00AM

Lynn Henning

Tigers altering their business model

All those who believe payroll is driving the Tigers' steadily hotter trade talks are bang-on with their logic.

But it's more complicated, and more interesting, than a matter of money.

It's about crafting a contender deep into the next decade. And the Tigers, rightly it seems, are banking that melding new talent from trades of Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson, etc., with their own fresh crop of farm prospects will craft a new, long-term contender, at a far more sensible price.

All the commotion will shake out between now and during what could be a rough 2010 transition season. In the meantime, the Tigers won't mind trimming a salary or two ahead of the Godzilla-sized contract obligations they will jettison after the 2010 and 2011 seasons.


Tigers owner Mike Ilitch has almost certainly not told his front-office boss, Dave Dombrowski, to slash payroll. That's because Ilitch never has ordered any fire sales with the Red Wings or with the Tigers. And even with business tough and various Tigers contracts even tougher, he will not order Dombrowski to make bad deals to save money.

But what he will abide is what the Tigers are now apparently prepared to embrace: smart trades that will make this team more affordable in the near and long-term, and more competitive into the next decade.

It's why some of us thought all along Granderson would need to at least be discussed as trade bait this offseason. He was at relatively peak value with an absorbable contract. The Tigers have multiple needs that could become more multiple as a trio of free agents -- Placido Polanco, Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyon -- move closer to perhaps playing elsewhere.

Trading Granderson figured to be a difficult, but necessary, way to add net value.

The Tigers also are closing in on promoting new pitchers and position players from their farm system. Casey Crosby probably will be in the starting rotation in 2011, maybe sooner. Another left-handed starter, Andy Oliver, will be at the doorstep, as well.

Casper Wells could emerge next spring as their new center fielder. Ryan Strieby and Brennan Boesch could be the new corner outfielders by 2011.

The Tigers by then likely will need a new shortstop and third baseman to assist their newly anointed second baseman, Scott Sizemore. Guess what flavor of position players will be involved in any major deals by the Tigers? Figure on a shortstop, for sure.

Tough decisions
As anticipated, the Tigers have plenty of clubs interested in Granderson and Jackson. And it's hardly a surprise the Yankees and Cubs probably lead the list.

At age 26 and with a Howitzer for an arm, Jackson will be looked at as a top-of-the-rotation heavyweight. Any contender will consider him money in the bank, which is nice, given that they'll probably need to fork over a fair slice of that bank account when Jackson and agent Scott Boras hit free agency in two years.

The Tigers need a right-handed starter of Jackson's caliber as badly as a team like the Yankees. But not when the Tigers need primarily to take care of Justin Verlander, whom they have a reasonably good chance of signing to a long extension in 2010.

Jackson becomes problematic for the Tigers because, unlike most agents, Boras doesn't go for extensions before free agency. It would conceivably leave the Tigers a lame-duck pitcher heading into 2011 whose trade value would steadily decrease as he moves closer to the free market.

Dombrowski can't gamble there.

Learning from mistakes
What Dombrowski can do is to get busy manufacturing a new team, with Verlander and Rick Porcello as its pitching pillars.

A general manager learned his lesson about bad contracts, as did Ilitch. You can build a contender for less money by acquiring young talent and letting it coalesce as it approaches its prime.

That's the thinking behind the seemingly imminent trades of Granderson, Jackson and maybe a handful of other Tigers. Anyone who thought this offseason was going to be quiet on the Comerica Park front should remember that fireworks aren't only for July.

[baseball3]

I understand the theory on Jackson's signability in the future et al...........that does make sense.

But, quite honestly, Granderson doesn't cost that much in relation to his value to the team.

If all we're going to get (and many think the Yankees wouldn't do this -- ) is Joba and Austin Jackson, then, we're stupid............much less the offer of Jackson, Ian Kennedy and a couple pitchers that will never pitch with the Yankees anyway...........no way

I'd want an impact player in return and while Joba is talented, he is a mental case -- lending to more downside possibilities than upside

I vote NO on Grandy trade, yes on Jackson

[tater6]

I'm not going to say Henning is a great writer, he may not even be considered good but he gets it right more times than not. I think he gets a bad rap here because he addresses some difficult issues that most loyal fans can't deal with. I think he was right about Maggs last year, about the Twins this year and it looks like he's right about Granderson. He may be right about the $100mil payroll too. Criticize him if you need to but he's not all that bad. Don't shoot the messenger.

[vannzee]

From what I have heard, trades are the way to go this offseason. Most teams dont have money to spare right now and the teams that do stand to make some excellent trades, value wise. An example could be Boston's getting of Hermida.

Im wondering if things may be worse off with the Tigers money wise then we know. Illitch ever since 2006 (or before?) has been willing to spend to win and with a solid nucleus here I am surprised that the talk has been about shipping off pieces and not adding. After the buzz of last season one could stand to think that going out and dealing Jackson/Grandy would be a disaster in fans eyes. The average fan wont pay or be excited to go see Casper Wells or even Austin Jackson in center.

I could see alot more teams following what the Oakland Athletics have been doing and being in cost saving mode. I think its going to be a long offseason for type A or B free agents who have been offered arbitration.

Jackson hasnt been able to piece it together for a full season yet but he ate innings and I dont see anyone else to replace his spot unless you rush Crosby or sign a free agent (which wouldnt save much cash after all). Its easy to forget that he is only 26 still. Granderson I would hate to see leave but I see the logic. Hes getting closer to thirty. He isnt going to figure out the lefty problem overnight.

In either case, if you can get value for those two then I think you do it.

[thewave84]

This is a very insightful article, kudos to Henning. The point about wanting to trade EJ now because Boras does not extend contracts in advance of free agency makes a lot of sense.

[keyser343]

Look at things like this: If DD had not signed Robertson and Willis to deals and let Maggs miss his contract option, that would give Detroit about 40 million. They would probably be in a better position to add a few cheap pieces this year and then go strong for 2011 when they free up about 23 mill in contracts. Instead, they are telling us to compete they will need to trade away a top line SP and a player who is the face of the club. I doubt we can compete better with those two gone in 2010. Maybe we are better in 2011 or 2012 at the earliest, but those two losses would hurt a frail pitching staff and aold, base clogging offense further. I don't feel great giving Edwin a multi year deal, but the Tigers need to get a lot back to make the trade look like anything positive. They need even more from Grandy, and if other clubs think the Tigers are in money issues, they may not give back what we expect the value of these guys are. Maybe they take a Willis or a Guillen, but we don't get back those pieces to make the club better.

It will be important to see what transpires this winter, if anything does.

[tiger337]

I'm still not seeing a lot realistic scenarios where trading Granderson and Jackson is going to help the team. They will be fixing some holes while creating new ones. Trades are always worth exploring but I'm not expecting them to happen.

[deadcenter~440]

I think some people need to read this article again and really grasp it..............because it is spot on.

The Tigers are not going to go out and sign FA's this offseason or next to try and keep up with the Jones'...........all this talk (and that's what it is...talk) is because it's an affordable way to get the team payroll down while rebuilding with multilple pieces you recieve back from EJax and Grandy and the farm system guys they want to promote.

In a way, yes rebuilding. Smart rebuilding, because this team has its flaws and it might be able to compete in the Central, but not at sustainable rate by spending money. Those days are gone.
Also, they are nowhere near the top 5 teams in the league going for the WS every year.

This team was going into a roster overhaul this year and most definitely next year as well, the 2006-2008 guys are on their way out. Nothing wrong with listening to see how your team can get better.

[Scottwood]

That is the best article that Henning has ever written.

And this, is dead on:

Tigers owner Mike Ilitch has almost certainly not told his front-office boss, Dave Dombrowski, to slash payroll. That's because Ilitch never has ordered any fire sales with the Red Wings or with the Tigers. And even with business tough and various Tigers contracts even tougher, he will not order Dombrowski to make bad deals to save money.

[tiger337]

I actually think Henning is a pretty good writer. Most of the other Detroit writers don't even talk about the team in any depth. Sometimes he says silly stuff but I think he gets a bad rap on this board.

The only problem I have with this particular article is this:

Casper Wells could emerge next spring as their new center fielder. Ryan Strieby and Brennan Boesch could be the new corner outfielders by 2011.

They will be lucky if one of those players develops into a solid major league regular. They will be even luckier if one of them becomes as good as Granderson. I think it will be very hard to replace Grandy.

[Eric Cioe]

I'd give up hopes of being able to compete in 2010 if it meant having a few more parts for a nucleus to compete in 2011-2015 or so. Absolutely. But if Jackson leaves, the rotation is going to be pretty ragged next season. Yeah, there are some pieces moving in the system right now, but they're all in the lower minors. They might be able to plug holes in 2011 at the earliest, but probably not next season. But if they were to get back a good left infielder with a shot of being ready for the bigs by 2011, plus some other pieces, then I'd have to consider that strongly.

[C03BRA]

Great article!

I don't agree with trading Jackson, but maybe the Tigers know something we dont? If they do trade him, I hope this is the case....

Granderson on the other hand isn't getting any younger or better. Looking back now, trading Guillen when he was 30 and consistently hitting .320 with 20 HRs & 80-90 RBIs a season would have worked out well for us...

[FloridaTigers]

I'm not opposed to dealing Granderson, however it isn't necessarily the best time to deal him, coming off a career-worst year.

[whoknew]

Originally Posted by baseball3

I understand the theory on Jackson's signability in the future et al...........that does make sense.

But, quite honestly, Granderson doesn't cost that much in relation to his value to the team.

If all we're going to get (and many think the Yankees wouldn't do this -- ) is Joba and Austin Jackson, then, we're stupid............much less the offer of Jackson, Ian Kennedy and a couple pitchers that will never pitch with the Yankees anyway...........no way

I'd want an impact player in return and while Joba is talented, he is a mental case -- lending to more downside possibilities than upside

I vote NO on Grandy trade, yes on Jackson

How can you be against a trade without knowing what the trade is?

[vannzee]

Originally Posted by tiger337

They will be lucky if one of those players develops into a solid major league regular. They will be even luckier if one of them becomes as good as Granderson. I think it will be very hard to replace Grandy.

I could see Strieby becoming a Jake Fox type but I agree Boesch will be lucky to carve out a major league career let alone be a solid regular. I think Henning forgot Wilkin Ramirez.

[Scottwood]

Originally Posted by tiger337

The only problem I have with this particular article is this:



They will be lucky if one of those players develops into a solid major league regular.

That was a part of the article I disagreed with. Personally, I don't see Strieby or Boesch having much of a chance at being our corner OF in 2011. But, in this case, I think Henning was just throwing out the idea.

[thewave84]

I'll say one thing for Henning - when he first suggested that the Tigers might trade Granderson we all thought he was nuts. Now it is starting to make sense. He was several months ahead of us in understanding how things were shaking out.

[Scottwood]

Originally Posted by Eric Cioe

I'd give up hopes of being able to compete in 2010 if it meant having a few more parts for a nucleus to compete in 2011-2015 or so. Absolutely.

So would I.

[tiger337]

If a team playing in weak division with a 130 million payroll is forced to trade two of it's best players in order to compete a couple years down the road, then I think they have failed. Maybe that's what they have to do but I see it as embarrassing for the organization rather than exciting. I think they've put themselves in a bad spot. That's why I'm having a hard time enjoying these rumors at the moment.

[thewave84]

Originally Posted by tiger337

If a team playing in weak division with a 130 million payroll is forced to trade two of it's best players in order to compete a couple years down the road, then I think they have failed. Maybe that's what they have to do but I see it as embarrassing for the organization rather than exciting. I think they've put themselves in a bad spot. That's why I'm having a hard time enjoying these rumors at the moment.

I think a lot of it has to do with the economy in the Detroit area. They had good attendance last year because they were in a pennant race but sooner or later they are going to have a sub-.500 season and that could be a financial disaster. I think that following 2010, the >100 mil payrolls are too risky for the Tigers. They might need to get down to 80 or less. To do that, they need more young players who are under club control. To get those kind of players, they might need to trade guys like EJ and Granderson, even though they are good and not terribly expensive. I wouldn't be surprised if Verlander's or Cabrera's name come out in rumors soon. The Tigers need a bundle of good, salary-controlled players to survive in this economy and you can't get something for nothing in trades.

[sportz4life]

Originally Posted by tiger337

I actually think Henning is a pretty good writer. Most of the other Detroit writers don't even talk about the team in any depth. Sometimes he says silly stuff but I think he gets a bad rap on this board.

The only problem I have with this particular article is this:



They will be lucky if one of those players develops into a solid major league regular. They will be even luckier if one of them becomes as good as Granderson. I think it will be very hard to replace Grandy.

The essence of Henning..laughably goofy stuff like this. Still his best article of the year.

[Eric Cioe]

Originally Posted by tiger337

If a team playing in weak division with a 130 million payroll is forced to trade two of it's best players in order to compete a couple years down the road, then I think they have failed. Maybe that's what they have to do but I see it as embarrassing for the organization rather than exciting. I think they've put themselves in a bad spot. That's why I'm having a hard time enjoying these rumors at the moment.

I agree with you that the organization put itself here. Why let Magglio's contract vest? The two lefty extensions were pretty bad, too. Robertson was defensible, I guess, but Willis really wasn't. They ran into bad luck on Bonderman's health, that's for sure. Guillen is owed a ton of money.

Dombrowski is a decent GM but he's been too trigger happy on signing guys to extensions a year early. Why was Inge extended after his career year? Why not wait a season? Same with Nate. And if, because of all those bad extensions to league average performers, they can't hold on to Verlander with an extension, then I'm going to be mad.

[sportz4life]

Originally Posted by thewave84

I'll say one thing for Henning - when he first suggested that the Tigers might trade Granderson we all thought he was nuts. Now it is starting to make sense. He was several months ahead of us in understanding how things were shaking out.

wave, if you go back to the various threads on the Grandeson topic, lots of posters were in favor of the idea.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by thewave84

I think a lot of it has to do with the economy in the Detroit area. They had good attendance last year because they were in a pennant race but sooner or later they are going to have a sub-.500 season and that could be a financial disaster. I think that following 2010, the >100 mil payrolls are too risky for the Tigers. They might need to get down to 80 or less. To do that, they need more young players who are under club control. To get those kind of players, they might need to trade guys like EJ and Granderson, even though they are good and not terribly expensive. I wouldn't be surprised if Verlander's or Cabrera's name come out in rumors soon. The Tigers need a bundle of good, salary-controlled players to survive in this economy and you can't get something for nothing in trades.

If your theory is correct and they need to get down to under 100 miilion, then maybe they should be trading Cabrera right now.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by thewave84

I'll say one thing for Henning - when he first suggested that the Tigers might trade Granderson we all thought he was nuts. Now it is starting to make sense. He was several months ahead of us in understanding how things were shaking out.

Except, if I recall, he was advocating a trade because the organization was growing tired of his off-field contributions and not focusing on the on-field stuff. At least that's what he was hinting at, which is what drew most of the criticism.

[thewave84]

Originally Posted by tiger337

If your theory is correct and they need to get down to under 100 miilion, then maybe they should be trading Cabrera right now.

It seems like right now they are trying to build their post-2010 payroll as a cheap team around 2 expensive pieces (Verlander and Cabrera). That's why they are dangling Granderson, Jackson, Laird, Inge, etc. But if that doesn't work, well, we'll see.

[eastside billee]

I agree that this is Henning's best article in a long time. I also agree that it makes a lot of sense if you read what he's truly saying.

The one thing I have to say is, counting on Wells and Sizemore at this point is silly.
They've NEVER faced one pitch of major league pitching. Potential is one thing, proving it is another.

IMO, Illitch needs to face up to paying a ton out in 2010 and see what 2011 brings before cutting his thoat by trading Curtis. Allowing Polanco to leave without a
tried and true backup plan is just stupid. Letting both closer types leave with no backup plan is a terrible idea. IMO, so you're going to destroy the offense, destroy the
defense and destroy the rotation while depleting the bullpen. BUT not have one fullproof idea as to what will replace them? Great plan guys.

[Scottwood]

Originally Posted by tiger337

If a team playing in weak division with a 130 million payroll is forced to trade two of it's best players in order to compete a couple years down the road, then I think they have failed. Maybe that's what they have to do but I see it as embarrassing for the organization rather than exciting. I think they've put themselves in a bad spot. That's why I'm having a hard time enjoying these rumors at the moment.

Well, we are not forced to do anything. Grandy and Jackson, even with some of their faults, are guys who could bring back great assets. If we can't find the right value, then we hang on to them. I see it as the glass is half full. We hold the cards in this situation and are in the position of power. If worse comes to worse and we don't deal them, then we are left with 2 cheap and young All Stars. There are worse problems to have.

Looking long term...

Technically speaking, we only have $42, 425,000 committed for 2011 (assuming Maggs does not vest). Even with arbitration increases to JV and Jackson, we are going to have a payroll entering the 2011 offseason below $60 million and with plenty of young and cheap guys ready to help out. I would expect Avila and Sizemore to be full time starters at that point. Crosby and Oliver could both be in the rotation, or one of them could. Either way, our #4 and #5 starters should be on the cheap with a collection of players like Crosby, Oliver, Galaragga, Miner and others to choose from. Guillen would be the full time DH and our bullpen is not something we should or will spend a lot of money on. Then, we will have lots of money to address the corner outfield spots and 3B and SS. Some could be filled internally, some could be filled by trade and some could be filled by FA.

Things really are not that dire. We were a roughly .500 club last year with a mangled roster and basically forced to play with a $60-70 million payroll b/c of some bad contracts given out by DD. The same will be true next season unless something happens this off season. Then, in 2011, DD will still have the core of Jackson, Grandy, Porcello, Miggy and JV to build around with cheap, young and good internal options at several positions and spots in the bullpen and rotation and ample money to address any problems he sees.

Here is a link to our contract situation. I think Porcello's option in 2011 is $1.536 million.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k...0g&output=html

[Antrat]

Henning is annoying but you have to give him his due. He called it in regards of this and the fact that the Twins stole the division.
The bastard.

[4hzglory]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Except, if I recall, he was advocating a trade because the organization was growing tired of his off-field contributions and not focusing on the on-field stuff. At least that's what he was hinting at, which is what drew most of the criticism.

The other part was that he was saying he should be traded primarily for bullpen help.

I still don't think Granderson will get traded, but if an offer DD can't refuse comes along, by all means go for it. I also don't think it is about getting the payroll down as the replacements for Jackson & Granderson are likely to cost as much or more than they do this season if Illitch wants to compete in the Central in 2010. And although we may be willing to write off 2010, at his age and with his hunger for a championship I don't think he is.

Count me in the group that thinks this is getting a lot more play this offseason because of the perceived financial strain than it would in the past. I am pretty certain that if this was last off season and people came to DD with offers for Granderson he probably listened and counter offered as well. Same with basically every player on the team. This offseason people just think we have to move players and so any mention of them is going to get blown out of proportion.

Again, like I posted in another thread, if the Tigers are in such a financial mess that they have to trade Granderson and Jackson who are underpaid in relation to what they provide stat wise to the team, they would have seen this in June and July. Thus if that were the case there is no way they would have let a .240 singles hitter keep playing knowing they could keep him from earning an extra $15 million this offseason as well as going out and spending an extra roughly $5 mil to get 2 players for the playoff push knowing that even if they got into the playoffs, the odds are they are not going to earn enough extra to recoup those $.

I firmly believe that DD is listening to all offers and making counter offers as well as looking at all scenerios in which he can improve the team the most while attempting to get the best value in terms of $ per what the player provides. If that means trading Granderson or Jackson because he gets an extreme return for them so be it. If he doesn't get greater value back than what they offer the Tigers in 2010, I don't see any way he trades them.

[4hzglory]

Originally Posted by thewave84

It seems like right now they are trying to build their post-2010 payroll as a cheap team around 2 expensive pieces (Verlander and Cabrera). That's why they are dangling Granderson, Jackson, Laird, Inge, etc. But if that doesn't work, well, we'll see.

It seems right now that writers and sports talk people think "they are trying to build their post-2010 payroll as a cheap team around 2 expensive pieces (Verlander and Cabrera)."

[LJK004]

Originally Posted by tiger337

If a team playing in weak division with a 130 million payroll is forced to trade two of it's best players in order to compete a couple years down the road, then I think they have failed. Maybe that's what they have to do but I see it as embarrassing for the organization rather than exciting. I think they've put themselves in a bad spot. That's why I'm having a hard time enjoying these rumors at the moment.

You've hit the nail on the head right here.

If they are having financial difficulties I wonder what the new limit will be? 100MM, 80MM, 50MM? I definitely don't want to become the Twins, selling off our good talent before they reach their prime.

I really don't mind the names being tossed around though, either. Do I like Granderson? Absolutely, how could someone not love a guy who is an ambassador to the game like he is? However, I can't see him ever figuring out the lefty issue, so if the right trade was there, I'd have no issues with pulling the trigger. Jackson, I'm not quite as high on for the simple reason we saw what he is capable of in the first half and I think you have to have good pitching to win.

In the end, I trust DD will make solid trades, so it takes a bit of the pain away, but next year should be interesting. Looks like we'll get to see a lot of youngsters.

[Hart]

Originally Posted by Scottwood

Well, we are not forced to do anything. Grandy and Jackson, even with some of their faults, are guys who could bring back great assets. If we can't find the right value, then we hang on to them. I see it as the glass is half full. We hold the cards in this situation and are in the position of power. If worse comes to worse and we don't deal them, then we are left with 2 cheap and young All Stars. There are worse problems to have.

Looking long term...

Technically speaking, we only have $42, 425,000 committed for 2011 (assuming Maggs does not vest). Even with arbitration increases to JV and Jackson, we are going to have a payroll entering the 2011 offseason below $60 million and with plenty of young and cheap guys ready to help out. I would expect Avila and Sizemore to be full time starters at that point. Crosby and Oliver could both be in the rotation, or one of them could. Either way, our #4 and #5 starters should be on the cheap with a collection of players like Crosby, Oliver, Galaragga, Miner and others to choose from. Guillen would be the full time DH and our bullpen is not something we should or will spend a lot of money on. Then, we will have lots of money to address the corner outfield spots and 3B and SS. Some could be filled internally, some could be filled by trade and some could be filled by FA.

Things really are not that dire. We were a roughly .500 club last year with a mangled roster and basically forced to play with a $60-70 million payroll b/c of some bad contracts given out by DD. The same will be true next season unless something happens this off season. Then, in 2011, DD will still have the core of Jackson, Grandy, Porcello, Miggy and JV to build around with cheap, young and good internal options at several positions and spots in the bullpen and rotation and ample money to address any problems he sees.

Here is a link to our contract situation. I think Porcello's option in 2011 is $1.536 million.

MLB Detroit 10

So is it fair to say that after next season, Guillen will be the only dead weight on the books? And he will be due approximately 11 million in 2011?

When does Inge's extension run out?

[sportz4life]

Originally Posted by eastside billee

I agree that this is Henning's best article in a long time. I also agree that it makes a lot of sense if you read what he's truly saying.

The one thing I have to say is, counting on Wells and Sizemore at this point is silly.
They've NEVER faced one pitch of major league pitching. Potential is one thing, proving it is another.

IMO, Illitch needs to face up to paying a ton out in 2010 and see what 2011 brings before cutting his thoat by trading Curtis. Allowing Polanco to leave without a
tried and true backup plan is just stupid. Letting both closer types leave with no backup plan is a terrible idea. IMO, so you're going to destroy the offense, destroy the
defense and destroy the rotation while depleting the bullpen. BUT not have one fullproof idea as to what will replace them? Great plan guys.

Illitch is facing up topaying a ton,the payroll is expaected to be 130MM even witha few cuts it isnt ging tobe less than 115MM.

billie, ever watched a 17 year old play either solo or in a band and know, he will succeed. I'm specualting yes..it's what you know, it's in your DNA to know, baseball guys know those same things.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Scottwood

Well, we are not forced to do anything. Grandy and Jackson, even with some of their faults, are guys who could bring back great assets. If we can't find the right value, then we hang on to them. I see it as the glass is half full. We hold the cards in this situation and are in the position of power. If worse comes to worse and we don't deal them, then we are left with 2 cheap and young All Stars. There are worse problems to have.

.

My point is with that payroll in that division, they shouldn't even have to entertain the idea of trading players like Jackson and Granderson. They should be owning the AL Central like the Cardinals own the NL Central. DD has done a lot of good things. He knows talent and knows how to make things happen but somehow the big picture isn't looking as good as it should.

[Scottwood]

Originally Posted by Hart

So is it fair to say that after next season, Guillen will be the only dead weight on the books? And he will be due approximately 11 million in 2011?

When does Inge's extension run out?

Guillen will be due $13 million in 2011.

Inge will be a FA after this season.

Here are the potential Free Agent 3B in 2011:

Third Basemen
Garrett Atkins COL
Wilson Betemit CWS
Jorge Cantu FLA
Eric Chavez OAK *
Pedro Feliz PHI
Bill Hall SEA *
Brandon Inge DET
Maicer Izturis LAA
Mike Lowell BOS
Melvin Mora BAL
Nick Punto MIN *
Scott Rolen CIN
Ty Wigginton BAL

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/200...-for-2011.html

Players with a * next to their name have an option year for 2011.

[sportz4life]

Originally Posted by tiger337

My point is with that payroll in that division, they shouldn't even have to entertain the idea of trading players like Jackson and Granderson. They should be owning the AL Central like the Cardinals own the NL Central. DD has done a lot of good things. He knows talent and knows how to make things happen but somehow the big picture isn't looking as good as it should.

Because 5 and 6 years ago they had to overpay to get older players to come here and then, they mistakenly paid players who got injured or were incorrectly evaluated.

Look.. business make bad investments all the time, the idea that management is shrewd enough to recoginize the mistakes and are willing to alter their course to make a long term fix, is the right idea.

Except for the CWS, no AL Central team has won a recent title, so everyone has fallen short.

[Scottwood]

Originally Posted by tiger337

My point is with that payroll in that division, they shouldn't even have to entertain the idea of trading players like Jackson and Granderson. They should be owning the AL Central like the Cardinals own the NL Central. DD has done a lot of good things. He knows talent and knows how to make things happen but somehow the big picture isn't looking as good as it should.

He has made his fair share of mistakes with contracts. The Willis extension was brutal. We've discussed the Maggs deal for months on here and I'm not sure if a 4 year deal to a player like Guillen who was already past his prime was the right move. The Robertson extension was actually pretty fair based on his WAR before the extension and we got some bad luck with the injuries to Bondo. Add it all up, and we are left with a lot of guys not performing up to their contracts. In 2011, DD will be able to get a second crack with all of that money at his disposal. If he messes up again, then he won't be our GM for that much longer. I have full confidence in him, though, and I really do like our future from 2011 and beyond.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Scottwood

He has made his fair share of mistakes with contracts. The Willis extension was brutal. We've discussed the Maggs deal for months on here and I'm not sure if a 4 year deal to a player like Guillen who was already past his prime was the right move. The Robertson extension was actually pretty fair based on his WAR before the extension and we got some bad luck with the injuries to Bondo. Add it all up, and we are left with a lot of guys not performing up to their contracts. In 2011, DD will be able to get a second crack will all of that money at his disposal. If he messes up again, then he won't be our GM for that much longer. I have full confidence in him, though, and I really do like our future from 2011 and beyond.

I think DD is a smart man and a good evaluator of talent. He has proven that he's very good at building a team fast. He has not proven that he knows how to build a team for sustained success. Maybe he'll get it right the next time but I can't say that I have full confidence that he will.

[djhutch]

Originally Posted by tiger337

I'm still not seeing a lot realistic scenarios where trading Granderson and Jackson is going to help the team. They will be fixing some holes while creating new ones. Trades are always worth exploring but I'm not expecting them to happen.

What about putting Robertson, Willis, Bonderman into any deal involving Granderson or Jackson? If EJ & Grandy are their 2 most marketable players via trade, you could take less in a deal and put one of the 3 albatross contracts in with it. That would free up money. I'm not saying that's the best way to go, especially given this year's FA pool, but it would give them more to spend.

Then again the chances anyone takes on one of those contracts just to get Granderson or Jackson isn't very good either. I really think the best way to go forward is eat those contracts now, cut the players if you have to, & lets see what some of the youngsters can do in 2010. That gives us a better idea of what we've got heading into 2011-2012, when the FA market is better & we've got more money to spend.