Blind Squirrel finds nut..Henning gets it right

[Scottwood]

To put what our salary picture looks like in 2011 and beyond into perspective, the Twins also have about $42, 600 committed in salary that year to Nathan, Morneau, Cuddyer and Baker. Here is the Twins salary commitments:

MLB Minnesota 10

[tater6]

Originally Posted by tiger337

If a team playing in weak division with a 130 million payroll is forced to trade two of it's best players in order to compete a couple years down the road, then I think they have failed. Maybe that's what they have to do but I see it as embarrassing for the organization rather than exciting. I think they've put themselves in a bad spot. That's why I'm having a hard time enjoying these rumors at the moment.

No question about it, they did fail. They tried to win by throwing money around and it failed miserably. The only thing the concerns me is, the high price for tickets. If making these two trades gets them back in a competitive position sooner, I say go for it.

[Los Gatos]

This Henning column is not fact; he's guessing, like a lot of other writers and fans are. There is sound logic in his theories, but they are just theories.

I'm highly skeptical that Ilitch is going to punt 2010 and worry about the future years. Unless he is secretly in dire financial straits, his age and desire to see the Tigers win run counter to the idea of massive payroll slashing.

We very well may see trades, but they won't be solely financially-driven unless they can dump one of the albatross contracts.

[tater6]

Originally Posted by Scottwood

Looking long term...

Technically speaking, we only have $42, 425,000 committed for 2011 (assuming Maggs does not vest). Even with arbitration increases to JV and Jackson, we are going to have a payroll entering the 2011 offseason below $60 million and with plenty of young and cheap guys ready to help out. [/url]

I don't think this is correct. Assuming JV and EJ are still with them and Maggs is not, their payroll will be near $60 mil and that's just for 6 players. They still need 19 more to field a team. Even at league min that would add close to $10 mil more. I think $80mil would be a more accurate number.

[Scottwood]

Originally Posted by tater6

I don't think this is correct. Assuming JV and EJ are still with them and Maggs is not, their payroll will be near $60 mil and that's just for 6 players. They still need 19 more to field a team. Even at league min that would add close to $10 mil more. I think $80mil would be a more accurate number.

Yes, but I was speaking more in terms of actual committed contracts. For example, heading into this off season, before even taking into account arbitration deals, we already are on the hook for a little over $100 million.

Either way, we are going to have a lot of money to play with next off season.

[Glutn4Pnshmnt]

Originally Posted by djhutch

What about putting Robertson, Willis, Bonderman into any deal involving Granderson or Jackson? If EJ & Grandy are their 2 most marketable players via trade, you could take less in a deal and put one of the 3 albatross contracts in with it. That would free up money. I'm not saying that's the best way to go, especially given this year's FA pool, but it would give them more to spend.

Then again the chances anyone takes on one of those contracts just to get Granderson or Jackson isn't very good either. I really think the best way to go forward is eat those contracts now, cut the players if you have to, & lets see what some of the youngsters can do in 2010. That gives us a better idea of what we've got heading into 2011-2012, when the FA market is better & we've got more money to spend.

No, I would much rather get the better prospects than free up money 1 year early. But I don't like free agents nor do I think freeing up that money means it gets spent.

[tater6]

Not sure I'm doing this right but here goes.

Henning latest, be sure to read the last paragraph

Which young gems would Cubs deal for Curtis Granderson? | detnews.com | The Detroit News

[tiger337]

Henning: He would hit left-handers because he has hit left-handers before (2008, when he batted .259 against lefties, .280 overall), and because there would be new resolve on the part of an athlete whose batting average, no matter where he plays, figures to rebound in 2010.

Then why do you want him traded?

[DaYooperASBDT]

Originally Posted by djhutch

What about putting Robertson, Willis, Bonderman into any deal involving Granderson or Jackson?

Hmm ..... not a bad idea Hutch. I would prefer that Grandy stay. I'd certainly take offers for Jackson because his value is sky-high right now. But if they don't trade EJ and lose him to free agency, not that big of a deal because we'll get some draft picks anyway.

Henning wrote a good article, although his love of the Boesch's and Brandon Douglas' of the world does give me a chuckle at times.

[Hart]

Originally Posted by Scottwood

Guillen will be due $13 million in 2011.

Inge will be a FA after this season.

Here are the potential Free Agent 3B in 2011:


Cot's Baseball Contracts: Potential Free Agents for 2011

Players with a * next to their name have an option year for 2011.

Adrian Beltre gives us better value than anybody on that list next year. And people forget that he is not even 30 years old yet because he has been around forever. He will turn 30 this April and is two years younger than Inge. Beltre is likely going to be one of the best bargains on the market this year because he is coming of an injury plagued down season. But if he comes back healthy, he is a very good everyday third baseman.

[whitecapwendy]

Wait! did someone compare Henning to one of us???

[AlaskanTigersFan]

Get rid of Jackson now. This would definately be the definition of selling high!

[eastside billee]

billie, ever watched a 17 year old play either solo or in a band and know, he will succeed. I'm specualting yes..it's what you know, it's in your DNA to know, baseball guys know those same things.

Yes, and I've been wrong more times than right.

Ever heard of Andrew Miller? how about the incredible Franklin German? that guy Nook Logan? and the amazing Chris Shelton? then there was Carlos Pena who was given away.

Baseball guys know the same things? Apparently not so sure about that. Plenty of guys play great baseball in the minors and look like a cinch to make it in the bigs -- and they SUCK once they make the big league roster. Sometimes they just can't take the pressure. Sometimes they can't hit a big league curveball which is leaps and bounds better than most minor league curves. Sometimes their body breaks down when they have to play 162 games. C'mon, figure it out.

[sabretooth]

Originally Posted by tiger337

I actually think Henning is a pretty good writer. Most of the other Detroit writers don't even talk about the team in any depth. Sometimes he says silly stuff but I think he gets a bad rap on this board.

The only problem I have with this particular article is this:



They will be lucky if one of those players develops into a solid major league regular. They will be even luckier if one of them becomes as good as Granderson. I think it will be very hard to replace Grandy.

I agree with this. Sizemore is the only player in the minors that I'm aware of that has any chance to be average offensively and defensively.

Strieby can hit but he is limited defensively.

Wells is decent at everything as a minor-leaguer but I don't see it translating into success at the major league level.

Boesch had a breakout year this year in AA but has been a lousy hitter up to this time.

None of these guys are Grandy-level prospects, maybe one or two of them will be contributors, but I don't see how anyone can plug them into a starting role, except Sizemore.

[4hzglory]

Originally Posted by sabretooth

I agree with this. Sizemore is the only player in the minors that I'm aware of that has any chance to be average offensively and defensively.

Strieby can hit but he is limited defensively.

Wells is decent at everything as a minor-leaguer but I don't see it translating into success at the major league level.

Boesch had a breakout year this year in AA but has been a lousy hitter up to this time.

None of these guys are Grandy-level prospects, maybe one or two of them will be contributors, but I don't see how anyone can plug them into a starting role, except Sizemore.

The only thing that would give me some hope that one of them could ever become a Grandy level prospect is the fact that Grandy himself was never projected to become what he has become.

That said, the only way they trade Grandy is if they get a better return than what they are giving up, and not just in quantity, but in quality also (at least projected quality). As has often been said, the team that gets the best player in a trade the vast majority of the time wins the trade. If we are dealing for players who are lesser in value at this point in time, 1 or 2 sure better have the potential to become more than Grandy is at whatever position they play and there better be close to 3 total players coming back. Otherwise he is more valuable to us both on the field and off.

[Charles Liston]

Originally Posted by whitecapwendy

Wait! did someone compare Henning to one of us???

Wendy what's with the picture of Ozzie Guillen? No one even mentoned him.

[DET Mr Malefic]

Originally Posted by Los Gatos

This Henning column is not fact; he's guessing, like a lot of other writers and fans are. There is sound logic in his theories, but they are just theories.

I'm highly skeptical that Ilitch is going to punt 2010 and worry about the future years. Unless he is secretly in dire financial straits, his age and desire to see the Tigers win run counter to the idea of massive payroll slashing.

We very well may see trades, but they won't be solely financially-driven unless they can dump one of the albatross contracts.

+1.........although I'm a little uncomfortable with the idea of guessing what Ilitch is thinking or feeling. Besides that though, +1.

I think as far as "dumping salary", the closest thing we'll see to a blatant salary dump this off-season is the Tigers not offering arbitration to players (Rodney, Polanco, Lyon) that logic dictates absolutely should be offered arbitration, so as not to face the exposure of having to pay said players. Besides that, I don't expect to see any payroll slashing for the sake of payroll slashing.

[sportz4life]

Originally Posted by eastside billee

Yes, and I've been wrong more times than right.

Ever heard of Andrew Miller? how about the incredible Franklin German? that guy Nook Logan? and the amazing Chris Shelton? then there was Carlos Pena who was given away.

Baseball guys know the same things? Apparently not so sure about that. Plenty of guys play great baseball in the minors and look like a cinch to make it in the bigs -- and they SUCK once they make the big league roster. Sometimes they just can't take the pressure. Sometimes they can't hit a big league curveball which is leaps and bounds better than most minor league curves. Sometimes their body breaks down when they have to play 162 games. C'mon, figure it out.

Pretty negative, it cuts both ways..if you are only going to remeber the bad ones..also a guy that hits 40 HR's twice shouldn;t be included in that discussion. Dombrowski has been correct far more times than he's been wrong.

[whitecapwendy]

Originally Posted by Charles Liston

Wendy what's with the picture of Ozzie Guillen? No one even mentoned him.

Now them's words of war!! I have really taken offense now!!!

[DaYooperASBDT]

Originally Posted by 4hzglory

The only thing that would give me some hope that one of them could ever become a Grandy level prospect is the fact that Grandy himself was never projected to become what he has become.

Well ... he didn't really come of out nowhere, either. The Tigers drafted him in the 3rd round (#80 overall), and he did post good minor league numbers (.922 OPS at Erie and .874 OPS at Toledo).

[4hzglory]

Originally Posted by DaYooperASBDT

Well ... he didn't really come of out nowhere, either. The Tigers drafted him in the 3rd round (#80 overall), and he did post good minor league numbers (.922 OPS at Erie and .874 OPS at Toledo).

Right, but he was never really projected to be much more than an average corner outfielder at best. Clevlen was generally considered the better prospect of the 2 wchich were drafted that year.