Brad Penny?

**Scottwood** · 08-27-2009, 01:17 PM

For the second time this month, the Red Sox have overreacted to a recent poor stretch of results and granted free agency to a quality major league pitcher. First, they cut John Smoltz loose, and now they’ve let Brad Penny out of his contract after they removed him from their starting rotation and he expressed a desire to start for another team down the stretch. The list of suitors lining up for Penny will be long, just as it should be – the guy can still pitch.

Even with his recent struggles, he’s running a 4.48 FIP on the season, thanks to recording twice as many strikeouts as walks and maintaining a neutral home run rate. That makes him around a league average starting pitcher for the season. Yes, he throws his fastball too much, but that’s always been true – he’s averaged 70% or more fastballs every year since 2004, and he’s proven he can be at least moderately successful pounding the zone with heaters.

The chink in his results – a .336 batting average on balls in play, which isn’t particularly predictive of anything. ZIPS projects a 4.44 FIP from Penny going forward, and that’s assuming he stays in the American League. Someone’s going to get a quality pitcher for nothing – who are the contenders for his services?

Detroit makes a lot of sense, as the back of their rotation is a bit of a mess. They just sent Aramando Galarraga to Triple-A for a brief stint, Jarrod Washburn is turning into a pumpkin, and they are simultaneously trying to limit Rick Porcello’s innings, leading to things like Nate Robertson and Zach Miner splitting a start this weekend. With a 67 percent chance to win the division, they’re the clear favorites in the AL Central, and Penny would have a good shot at cracking their playoff rotation.

If he wanted to go back to the National League, Colorado has a clear need for a starting pitcher after just losing Aaron Cook with an arm problem. The Rockies are leading the Wild Card race in the NL and should be an aggressive suitor, but as a free agent to be, Penny might not want to ply his trade in Coors Field for the last month of the season.

That would leave Florida as the best fit in the NL. Penny obviously has history there, and he would be a clear upgrade over Sean West in the Marlins rotation. At 4 1/2 games behind the Rockies in the Wild Card standings, they’re a long shot to play in October, but it would be a chance at some meaningful baseball in September in an environment that he knows fairly well.

I’d bet on Detroit, but regardless of where he ends up, he’s likely to be an asset. Boston has to hope that this doesn’t come back and bite them in the playoffs.

Thoughts?

**RobSk** · 08-27-2009, 01:26 PM

Wowsers. His FIP shows that he's actually been a bit better than the basic numbers show, but man, it's been 2 full years since he was healthy.

Rob

**RedRamage** · 08-27-2009, 01:26 PM

I'd rather him than Miner or Robertson right now.

**Vonlenska** · 08-27-2009, 01:31 PM

I'd love it.

**sportz4life** · 08-27-2009, 01:34 PM

In watching his starts, his stuff seemed fine, his command seemed spotty. I like guys who have stuff and a chip on their shoulders. Penny is no worse the AG and Nate, if they can fit him on the 40 I say go for it. That being said i would not be shocked if he signed with LAA or FLA.

**ChrisBrown** · 08-27-2009, 01:37 PM

I'd be more than happy to see him take a few turns in the rotation...he has a history with DD too, so hopefully that helps.

**DennisDubay** · 08-27-2009, 01:43 PM

Get it done.

**EatEmUpTigers711** · 08-27-2009, 01:52 PM

Like some have said, I'd take him over Galarraga & Robertson.

**Tigertown Rats** · 08-27-2009, 01:54 PM

Can it happen in time for Sat?

**Los Gatos** · 08-27-2009, 02:11 PM

He's be worth a try, but like Smoltz, Penny would probably be more comfortable (and probably more successful) going back to the NL.

**Scottwood** · 08-27-2009, 02:18 PM

Buster Olney said he is probably going to an NL team. Oh well.

**84 Lives!!!** · 08-27-2009, 02:18 PM

I'd wanna give him a AAA start first... just to see where he's at.

And he might not like that idea.

**Bambino Lino** · 08-27-2009, 02:27 PM

When I got the text from ESPN that the Red Sox released Penny, my first thought was "Now someone on the MTS board is gonna make a 'Brad Penny??' thread". But I actually wouldn't mind this.

**pyrotigers** · 08-27-2009, 02:32 PM

Penny would be OK, Detroit has a much better defense than Boston and that should help him out. He throws too many fastballs and his curve sucks, I don't think you can expect better than a 4.5 ERA from him.

**CapitalTigers** · 08-27-2009, 02:35 PM

White Sox are going after him hard according to reports online.

**63 Tiger** · 08-27-2009, 02:47 PM

7-8 with a 5.61 ERA in 24 starts this season. He won just one of his last 11 outings, and in four August starts, the 31-year-old has struggled to an 0-3 record and an 8.31 ERA.

NO THANK YOU!

**Shelton** · 08-27-2009, 02:47 PM

They won't sign Brad Penny.

But rather than end the thread, I'm hoping to turn this into one of those tangent threads that has nothing to do with title of the thread.

Someone get Tyrus to post something about baseball in the 30s.

**chasfh** · 08-27-2009, 02:51 PM

NO!

The Tigers don't need pitching. They need hitting.

Matt Murton is available for free.

**Walt** · 08-27-2009, 02:52 PM

It is being said that he promised Boston that he would not sign with an AL contender as a condition of his release. Otherwise they would have waited until Sept to release him.

**Bambino Lino** · 08-27-2009, 03:07 PM

He beat Edwin a couple weeks ago....

**whitesox901** · 08-27-2009, 03:09 PM

Originally Posted by Shelton

Someone get Tyrus to post something about baseball in the 30s.

Did you know that in 1933 the first All-Star game was hosted at Comiskey Park

**Oblong** · 08-27-2009, 03:21 PM

signing Penny would make no cents.

**tiger337** · 08-27-2009, 03:24 PM

Originally Posted by Oblong

signing Penny would make no cents.

Barry Bonds would be a much better investment.

**tiger337** · 08-27-2009, 03:26 PM

Originally Posted by Shelton

But rather than end the thread, I'm hoping to turn this into one of those tangent threads that has nothing to do with title of the thread.

Do you think it's true that steroid use increases BABIP?

**pyrotigers** · 08-27-2009, 03:30 PM

Originally Posted by chasfh

NO!

The Tigers don't need pitching. They need hitting.

Matt Murton is available for free.

But we already have one Ryan Raburn

**Shelton** · 08-27-2009, 03:40 PM

Originally Posted by tiger337

Do you think it's true that steroid use increases BABIP?

Interesting question.

My answer is yes.

It's pretty well known that hitters have much more control over their BABIP than pitchers. With the added strength, their weak ground balls become screamers and thus they get more hits.

Because pitchers have zero control over balls in play (zero, I say) adding strength accomplishes nothing to improve their BABIP.

I would say that pitching in the steroid era is bad luck.

**thewave84** · 08-27-2009, 03:43 PM

Originally Posted by tiger337

Do you think it's true that steroid use increases BABIP?

I think Mike Illitch is a pretty good owner and he just wouldn't let that happen. However, most of the journalists who cover the team don't know squat. I could write better than them.

**Lbh24** · 08-27-2009, 03:54 PM

Originally Posted by tiger337

Do you think it's true that steroid use increases BABIP?

Only BABIPw/RISP, because steroid use helps the batter focus up, except against pitchers who pitch to contact and don't give in

**VegasTiger** · 08-27-2009, 04:00 PM

Originally Posted by Lbh24

Only BABIPw/RISP, because steroid use helps the batter focus up, except against pitchers who pitch to contact and don't give in

It's all about the intangibles.

**thewave84** · 08-27-2009, 04:13 PM

Back to the pre-hijack subject, there is a report that the Twins might claim Penny off waivers even thought that means they get his 5 mil salary.

**63 Tiger** · 08-27-2009, 04:13 PM

Per MLBTradeRumors.com

The Twins would consider claiming Penny off release waivers and taking on the rest of his salary instead of waiting for him to become a free agent.

Brad Penny Rumors: Thursday: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Question - If the Chi Sox also had the same interest, who would be first in line since they have the same record?

**Sports_Freak** · 08-27-2009, 04:24 PM

It will be interesting to see how this plays out by the 31st. I hope Penny goes to the NL, but what are his choices if a team claims him (and his salary)?

**sagnam** · 08-27-2009, 04:26 PM

Originally Posted by 63 Tiger

Question - If the Chi Sox also had the same interest, who would be first in line since they have the same record?

This is a good question, and one I can't seem to find an answer too.

**jaymo** · 08-27-2009, 04:32 PM

If the teams have identical records look at 2008 records. The Twins would have the claim based on losing game 163 I think.

If 2008 were tied- 2007 records.

I think.

**Walt** · 08-27-2009, 04:36 PM

They would each get half.

**jaymo** · 08-27-2009, 04:39 PM

Originally Posted by Walt

They would each get half.

It doesn't solve the problem. Someone would get the pitching arm.

**RobSk** · 08-27-2009, 04:40 PM

Originally Posted by Walt

They would each get half.

If you haven't got a Penny a ha'Penny will do.
If you haven't got a ha'Penny then God bless you!

Rob

**jaymo** · 08-27-2009, 04:46 PM

Originally Posted by RobSk

If you haven't got a Penny a ha'Penny will do.
If you haven't got a ha'Penny then God bless you!

Rob

Bravo.

**ballmich** · 08-27-2009, 06:09 PM

Originally Posted by Scottwood

Buster Olney said he is probably going to an NL team. Oh well.

If I was playing for next year's contract, I would too. Although, not so much if it was Colorado...

**84 Lives!!!** · 08-27-2009, 06:34 PM

Originally Posted by Shelton

Interesting question.

My answer is yes.

It's pretty well known that hitters have much more control over their BABIP than pitchers. With the added strength, their weak ground balls become screamers and thus they get more hits.

Because pitchers have zero control over balls in play (zero, I say) adding strength accomplishes nothing to improve their BABIP.

I would say that pitching in the steroid era is bad luck.

+ 1,000.