Mid-Season Prospect Rankings

[EppOnite]

I'll leave this one up to the minor league experts here, but the development by some of our prospects in this seasons first half has been encouraging. Strieby, Avila, Sizemore, Crosby, Weinhardt have all made big progress this year. Lets see some Mid-Season top 10's (or more).

[DaYooperASBDT]

Pulling a list completely out of my bum, I'll go with:

1. Casey Crosby
2. Ryan Perry
3. Wilkin Ramirez
4. Alex Avila
5. Scott Sizemore
6. Ryan Streiby
7. Jeff Larish (still considered a prospect?)
8. Alfredo Figaro
9. Cody Satterwhite
10. Deik Scram

Mentions: Jared Gayhart, Robbie Weinhardt, Brennan Boesch, Casper Wells, Brayan Villarreal, Iorg, Gustavo Nunez, plus whoever I missed!

[Dunkin Darvin]

I'd go...

1. Crosby
2. Perry
3. Avila
4. Sizemore
5. Ramirez
6. Streiby
7. Satterwhite
8. Iorg
9. Weinhardt
10. Figaro

[Dunkin Darvin]

Another question for those in the know; lets assume we sign all of our draft picks, where would guys like Turner, Oliver, Gaynor, Gomez, Fields and anyone else fall on this list?

[Seattle Mike]

It seems to me, factoring in position, age, and performance, that Avila is the Tigers top prospect. Plus he's left-handed. This assumes he doesn't have issues on defense, and based on a few comments here and there on this site and other news sources his defense is respectable.

Of course I've never seen him play (not many chances for that living in Seattle).

[Dunkin Darvin]

Originally Posted by Seattle Mike

It seems to me, factoring in position, age, and performance, that Avila is the Tigers top prospect. Plus he's left-handed. This assumes he doesn't have issues on defense, and based on a few comments here and there on this site and other news sources his defense is respectable.

Of course I've never seen him play (not many chances for that living in Seattle).

This is from Baseball America a few weeks ago...

Alex Avila, c, Tigers. A fifth-round pick out of Alabama last year, Avila has proven to be a key cog in the Tigers' Double-A Erie lineup. Avila is hitting .284/.371/.467 having spent the entire season at the Double-A level. He also leads the league in fielding percentage and caught-stealing percentage (45.6 percent). As a 22-year-old lefthanded-hitting catcher who is already holding his own against advanced pitching, Avila is proving to be quite a steal.

His line now is .299/.395/.492. I can't find any info on his current defensive stats other than he has 2 errors.

[Microline133]

For those that might be worried about it....both Larish and Perry have exceeded the 45-day limit for rookie eligibility, and thus aren't technically 'prospects.'


As for Avila....he's certainly close to the top prospect, but I'm not sure he has the ceiling of some guys that are likely ahead of him. His defense is improving, and I think he'll stick, but he still has bouts with inconsistency, and he's got to continue improving his game calling and receiving. He's made huge strides already, so I am expecting continued improvement.

[EppOnite]

Avila has turned into one of my favorite prospects. He cracks the top 10 in many offensive categorys in AA. I'm guessing with his families baseball background he has a good understanding of the game and I'm hoping he could get that "he's a baseball player" lable. Any idea of how good he is defensively?

My list while considering prospect status + major league ready;
1. Crosby LHP - Will look good somewhere between Verlander, Porcello, Jackson
2. Perry RHP - Possible closer if he gets better command
3. Avila C - Big strides in 1st half, walks, hits for power and average so far
4. Sizemore 2nd - Close to being ready for a call-up, defense needs to improve a bit
5. Ramirez OF - Huge power and speed, K's too often, shaky defense
6. Satterwhite RHP- Strikes out a bunch, needs to cut down on walks, should move quick
7. Strieby 1st- Put things together quick this year, Eastern league top 3 in HR, RBI, OPS
8. Figaro RHP- Strike thrower could be back of rotation type
9. Larish 1st- Power of the bench, not much room in Detroit for him
10. Ryan C- Nice power, decent defender.

[Eric Cioe]

Interesting to see Iorg all but disappear from this conversation.

[EppOnite]

I guess the guys above answered my questions about Avila. And with Perry and Larish not qualifying I replace somewhere on the Weinhardt and Boesch. I love Dombroski, but I'm not seeing much love for his "future all-star" Cale Iorg.

[Seattle Mike]

From today's Baseball Prospectus (I don't think this is premium content)



Why is this guy not a household name yet?

Ryan Strieby, 1B, Tigers (Double-A Erie)
Tuesday's stats: 2-for-5, HR (16), 3 R, 2 RBI, BB
He has four straight multi-hit games, and with 16 home runs and 46 walks in just 244 at-bats, he's batting .303/.423/.561, which leads the Eastern League in on-base percentage while placing fourth in slugging. Yet nobody talks about him as one of the better pure offensive prospects around. Yes, he's big and slow and strikes out a lot, and yes, he'll be hard pressed to get a shot in Detroit with Miguel Cabrera holding down the job well into the next decade, but that doesn't mean Strieby isn't a stud.

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by Eric Cioe

Interesting to see Iorg all but disappear from this conversation.

If by interesting, you mean assinine, then yes, I'd agree.

[djhutch]

Originally Posted by Seattle Mike

From today's Baseball Prospectus (I don't think this is premium content)



Why is this guy not a household name yet?

Ryan Strieby, 1B, Tigers (Double-A Erie)
Tuesday's stats: 2-for-5, HR (16), 3 R, 2 RBI, BB
He has four straight multi-hit games, and with 16 home runs and 46 walks in just 244 at-bats, he's batting .303/.423/.561, which leads the Eastern League in on-base percentage while placing fourth in slugging. Yet nobody talks about him as one of the better pure offensive prospects around. Yes, he's big and slow and strikes out a lot, and yes, he'll be hard pressed to get a shot in Detroit with Miguel Cabrera holding down the job well into the next decade, but that doesn't mean Strieby isn't a stud.

It's news like this that makes me think he may become a major trade piece in the next couple of weeks. Not that I'm rooting for that, but with Cabrera at 1B it would make sense.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by Microline133

If by interesting, you mean assinine, then yes, I'd agree.

+1.

[tigermojo]

Originally Posted by Microline133

If by interesting, you mean assinine, then yes, I'd agree.

Could Iorg be as good defensively as Everett?

[sportz4life]

Originally Posted by Microline133

If by interesting, you mean assinine, then yes, I'd agree.

Seems like Iorg is exhibiting slow but steady monthly improvement as has Ciriaco..people have also neglected to mention Douglas and Villareal.

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by tigermojo

Could Iorg be as good defensively as Everett?

Iorg is an elite level defender, so if you consider Everett the same, then I would say yes.

[tigermojo]

Based on performance so far, which prospects have raised their chances compared to where they were to begin the season?

[jake]

Iorg has everything but experience.

[Seattle Mike]

Originally Posted by djhutch

It's news like this that makes me think he may become a major trade piece in the next couple of weeks. Not that I'm rooting for that, but with Cabrera at 1B it would make sense.

The Tigers have so few guys with his skill set (freak power and OBP skills) in their system. He could be a valuable trade chit, but I doubt he'll yield much, because of the league-wide biases against players like him.

I hope the Tigers give him a shot. He could be the next Marcus Thames, with a much better ability to get on base. And that's intriguing, even if he gets most of his time at DH

[sportz4life]

Originally Posted by Seattle Mike

The Tigers have so few guys with his skill set (freak power and OBP skills) in their system. He could be a valuable trade chit, but I doubt he'll yield much, because of the league-wide biases against players like him.

I hope the Tigers give him a shot. He could be the next Marcus Thames, with a much better ability to get on base. And that's intriguing, even if he gets most of his time at DH

He could also be Ryan Shealy.

[tiger337]

I have been very impressed with Iorg's defense when I have seen him. I haven't seen him enough to know whether he makes the plays every day but his tools look to be up there with Inge. His offense needs a lot of work but seems to be hitting a little better recently.

[Seattle Mike]

Originally Posted by sportz4life

He could also be Ryan Shealy.

Of course he could. I'd just like the Tigers to keep him around so we'll all find out. Now, if someone wants to trade Streiby and Crosby for a proven stud in their late 20s 2-3 years away from free agency, then you do that. But I wouldn't trade him for a 32-33ish+ guy in his final year of a contract. Given that the former is very unlikely, I hope the Tigers keep him.

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by Seattle Mike

But I wouldn't trade him for a 32-33ish+ guy in his final year of a contract. Given that the former is very unlikely, I hope the Tigers keep him.

Really? Even if that deal and the player it brings, results in a World Series title in 2009? If that's the end result, I do that deal every day of the week.

[Seattle Mike]

Originally Posted by Microline133

Really? Even if that deal and the player it brings, results in a World Series title in 2009? If that's the end result, I do that deal every day of the week.

Call me crazy, but yes. I look at it this way: the kind of player Strieby is likely to yield is the kind of player who will only marginally increase our chances of winning the WS in 2009.

Another way of looking at it: I assume the chances of Strieby developing into a key contributor for the Tigers over the next 6-8 years are greater than the Tigers chances of winning the WS in 2009, even with the roster upgrade generated by a Strieby trade. When I look at it this way, I have to give the nod to letting Strieby's prospects play out as a Tiger.

And I wasn't one of the fans who thought the Cabrera trade was a scandalous act of forsaking our future. It was a brilliant trade, one that helped now and later. If we could pull the same thing off this time, I'd do it. Otherwise, I'd sit tight.

[The Truman Show]

Originally Posted by Microline133

Really? Even if that deal and the player it brings, results in a World Series title in 2009? If that's the end result, I do that deal every day of the week.

well I think anyone would trade a prospect for a guaranteed world series. Not really how it works, unfortunately.

[DrWho17]

Originally Posted by jake

Iorg has everything but experience.

Well, and performance thus far.

[toadhunter911]

Originally Posted by Microline133

Really? Even if that deal and the player it brings, results in a World Series title in 2009? If that's the end result, I do that deal every day of the week.

+1

[KleShreen]

I thought Strieby was being tried in the outfield lately, since Cabrera has first on lockdown?

Also, Avila doesn't also throw left-handed, does he?

[Buddha]

Originally Posted by Seattle Mike

Of course he could. I'd just like the Tigers to keep him around so we'll all find out. Now, if someone wants to trade Streiby and Crosby for a proven stud in their late 20s 2-3 years away from free agency, then you do that. But I wouldn't trade him for a 32-33ish+ guy in his final year of a contract. Given that the former is very unlikely, I hope the Tigers keep him.

I would trade them both in a heartbeat for a good 32-33ish guy. The Tigers are going to be in a dogfight for the playoffs and every little bit helps. If they don't feel they have the pitching to win, go out and get a pitcher (or hitter).

Prospects come and go, the chance to win a world series doesn't come along every day.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by KleShreen

Also, Avila doesn't also throw left-handed, does he?

To the best of my knowledge, the last (and only?) MLB catcher to play regularly for a decent length of time and throw left-handed was this guy ...

... and that was 125 years ago.

Alex Avila throws with his right hand.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Buddha

Prospects come and go, the chance to win a world series doesn't come along every day.

Prospects don't just come and go. Some of them stay Cabrera and Granderson used to be prospects. Since I don't think Strieby or Crosby will ever approach that level, I would agree with you in this particular case. If Porcello was still a "prospect", he is an example of someone I would not want to see traded for an older player who might help them get into one post-season.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Buddha

I would trade them both in a heartbeat for a good 32-33ish guy. The Tigers are going to be in a dogfight for the playoffs and every little bit helps. If they don't feel they have the pitching to win, go out and get a pitcher (or hitter).

Prospects come and go, the chance to win a world series doesn't come along every day.

Depends on the player. I would take Pujols for half a season for Streiby, for example, but probably wouldn't trade Streiby for a marginal upgrade.

I'd suggest, in general, there are very few players are such an upgrade that they would make the difference in a pennant race when playing only half of a season. My guess is the sort of players who are worth a few extra wins over one-half of one season are not available via trade, and even if they were, it would take more than Streiby to get them.

If one thinks the player only leads to one win or fewer, and that player is gone after season's end, I probably wouldn't trade Streiby for that player. Streiby can be a cheap replacement for Thames in 2010 or 2011.

[KleShreen]

Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth

To the best of my knowledge, the last (and only?) MLB catcher to play regularly for a decent length of time and throw left-handed was this guy ...

... and that was 125 years ago.

Alex Avila throws with his right hand.

That's what I thought, haha. The Whitecaps had a story in one of their gameday magazines about the last left-handed catcher, who made it to I think Triple-A ball in the 80's or early 90's or something...so I was curious.

[sportz4life]

Originally Posted by Seattle Mike

Call me crazy, but yes. I look at it this way: the kind of player Strieby is likely to yield is the kind of player who will only marginally increase our chances of winning the WS in 2009.

Another way of looking at it: I assume the chances of Strieby developing into a key contributor for the Tigers over the next 6-8 years are greater than the Tigers chances of winning the WS in 2009, even with the roster upgrade generated by a Strieby trade. When I look at it this way, I have to give the nod to letting Strieby's prospects play out as a Tiger.

And I wasn't one of the fans who thought the Cabrera trade was a scandalous act of forsaking our future. It was a brilliant trade, one that helped now and later. If we could pull the same thing off this time, I'd do it. Otherwise, I'd sit tight.

Hey Mike..just asking..how many times have you seen Streiby play?? Or are you scouting him from his accumulated data.

[The Truman Show]

Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth

Depends on the player. I would take Pujols for half a season for Streiby, for example, but probably wouldn't trade Streiby for a marginal upgrade.

I'd suggest, in general, there are very few players are such an upgrade that they would make the difference in a pennant race when playing only half of a season. My guess is the sort of players who are worth a few extra wins over one-half of one season are not available via trade, and even if they were, it would take more than Streiby to get them.

If one thinks the player only leads to one win or fewer, and that player is gone after season's end, I probably wouldn't trade Streiby for that player. Streiby can be a cheap replacement for Thames in 2010 or 2011.

Do you ever write a post that isn't terrific?

[Buddha]

Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth

Depends on the player. I would take Pujols for half a season for Streiby, for example, but probably wouldn't trade Streiby for a marginal upgrade.

I'd suggest, in general, there are very few players are such an upgrade that they would make the difference in a pennant race when playing only half of a season. My guess is the sort of players who are worth a few extra wins over one-half of one season are not available via trade, and even if they were, it would take more than Streiby to get them.

If one thinks the player only leads to one win or fewer, and that player is gone after season's end, I probably wouldn't trade Streiby for that player. Streiby can be a cheap replacement for Thames in 2010 or 2011.

I didn't recognize you with your new avatar.

I think I'm a lot less excited about the Tigers' prospects than many folks around here. I'd deal almost any one of them for an upgrade in the bullpen or, better yet, in the starting rotation.

What Tigers prospect WOULDN'T you trade for Roy Halladay? I'd deal any one of them, and I might even deal Porcello.

But I'm kind of impulsive like that. I'm sure Edman will be along to call me an idiot soon.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by The Truman Show

Do you ever write a post that isn't terrific?

He never adds anything of substance though. All he does is use logic all the time.

[The Truman Show]

Originally Posted by tiger337

He never adds anything of substance though. All he does is use logic all the time.

Bigglesworth is the Robinson of MTS posters.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Buddha

I didn't recognize you with your new avatar.

I think I'm a lot less excited about the Tigers' prospects than many folks around here. I'd deal almost any one of them for an upgrade in the bullpen or, better yet, in the starting rotation.

What Tigers prospect WOULDN'T you trade for Roy Halladay? I'd deal any one of them, and I might even deal Porcello.

But I'm kind of impulsive like that. I'm sure Edman will be along to call me an idiot soon.

DD didn't recognize me by my new avatar either. In all seriousness, I really like this picture of my son (little league), so it became my avatar.

I stated that I really wouldn't want to trade a good prospect for an upgrade that is likely to net me 1 win or less for one-half of one season.

I would, however, consider trading a good prospect or prospects for a guy who could add two or more wins the rest of the way. Halladay would fall into this category. I strongly suspect Halladay could save the Tigers 20 or more runs over the guy he bumps from the rotation plus the benefit derived from lessening the workload on the bullpen. The problem with Halladay is that he would cost more than Streiby, so while it is true to say 1/2 season of Halladay is worth trading Streiby for, it isn't practical because Toronto would not agree to it. I would consider many different prospect packages for Halladay, provided Roy agrees to a contract extension and the prospect package did not include Porcello. Porcello is cost controlled and very advanced at age 20. He might be the most attractive asset on in the Tigers organization, when one factors in money and the economy.

What I would like the Tigers to avoid doing is using prospects that likely can contribute in the major leagues in a season or two to marginally upgrade a position or positions today, especially if it is a half-season rental. Even gaining one win is not likely to prove significant in the pennant race. It could prove significant, sure, but it is also fair to stop and ask, 'how much is this insurance policy costing me, and can I live without it?' It is also fair to ask, what could I get in the free agent market by using the money saved in shedding payroll by promoting a few select prospects. If one trades those prospects, that avenue is closed, or at least is limited.

In a different thread, I ran some numbers briefly, and it appears to me that the net difference in having the 2008 version of Magglio Ordonez the rest of this season versus Clete Thomas the rest of this season is something like 5 runs. Magglio in 2008 was pretty darned solid, but over 80 games, he really isn't all that much more effective than Thomas is now. If one studies the issue, it really is remarkable how large an upgrade is required to net 2 extra wins or more for half of a season, and players that can do that aren't available for just Streiby. As an example, I don't think Holliday (OF) would net the Tigers two wins over Thomas, and he would probably cost MORE than Streiby.