Maggs breaking out of it??

[63 Tiger]

He may be breaking out of it. I think these next six games will give us a better idea of whether or not the weekend was a fluke, but I'm starting to think the loss in his bat speed may have been exaggerated. I don't think there was any indication at the end of last season that his bat was slowing down, and it is hard to believe that all of a sudden there was a drastic decrease especially given his age vs. someone who is 39 or 40. Maybe it is a timing issue which Maggs is claiming.

If he can give us enough production (8 HRs and 40 RBIs) in the 2nd half playing 3/4 of the time (not starting against some of the harder throwing RHP) and possibly being the difference between making and not making the playoffs the extra 15 mil will not break Mr I's bank account. How much of the 15 mil would be offset by playoff revenue? They can release him at the end of the season to avoid the 2011 option.

[DaYooperASBDT]

I'm going to come right out and admit it. When I reviewed Magglio's numbers from the Minnesota series (he went 4-10), I literally winced.

Although Illitch can probably afford all of these bad contracts, it would be a shame if Magglio salvaged his two option years with a hot month of hitting, only to revert to lesser levels after that.

PS - I would trade Ordonez for Milton Bradley in about 3 milliseconds flat. Bradley is oft injured and has the anger issues, but his skill set far surpasses anything Ordonez will have to offer going forward. He would be a perfect DH, especially given that high OBP.

[The Truman Show]

I'm not proclaiming Maggs "back" after one game. Take out the one game and his numbers are just as pedestrian as we're used to seeing.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by 63 Tiger

He may be breaking out of it. I think these next six games will give us a better idea of whether or not the weekend was a fluke, but I'm starting to think the loss in his bat speed may have been exaggerated. I don't think there was any indication at the end of last season that his bat was slowing down, and it is hard to believe that all of a sudden there was a drastic decrease especially given his age vs. someone who is 39 or 40. Maybe it is a timing issue which Maggs is claiming.

If he can give us enough production (8 HRs and 40 RBIs) in the 2nd half playing 3/4 of the time (not starting against some of the harder throwing RHP) and possibly being the difference between making and not making the playoffs the extra 15 mil will not break Mr I's bank account. How much of the 15 mil would be offset by playoff revenue? They can release him at the end of the season to avoid the 2011 option.

How do you respond to my claim that my estimate of the overall difference between Magglio and Clete Thomas' performance for 1/2 of a season is capped at 5 runs, and that presumes Magglio returns to 2008 level of offense?

Do you think the remote possibility of 5 extra runs is worth a $15M contact next year?

[sportz4life]

Originally Posted by Tyrus

But you're leaving out the postseason. What if Magglio reverted to his career average for the rest of the season and continued that fine hitting through the postseason, enabling the Tigers to win the World Series? Would that be worth it?

To me, it would -- even if he never played another game after 2009.

What if monkeys flew out of my..oh..skip that..but the probability quotient of the above referenced Magglio scenario, would favor the monkeys

[Seattle Mike]

Ordonez deserved every chance to prove his slump was nothing more than that. But damn, these "Is he done or isn't he" scenerios can really wreck havoc on a lineup. An example: yesterday he plays over Raburn against the right-hander. Raburn has a 747 OPS against righties (the Tigers team OPS against righties is, ouch, 707); Ordonez 617. But Ordonez gets the nod, cause, you know, he's a veteran with a track record who managed to hit a three-run homer the day before, against a lefty.

At this point, Ordonez should never start over Raburn. Ever. And using him as the DH against a rightie? Managerial malpractice. Interestingly, Ordonez does have an 846 OPS against lefties. This whole vesting option situation could easily resolve itself if Ordonez was used only against lefties. It seems a defensible move on many levels.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Seattle Mike

Ordonez deserved every chance to prove his slump was nothing more than that. But damn, these "Is he done or isn't he" scenerios can really wreck havoc on a lineup. An example: yesterday he plays over Raburn against the right-hander. Raburn has a 747 OPS against righties (the Tigers team OPS against righties is, ouch, 707); Ordonez 617. But Ordonez gets the nod, cause, you know, he's a veteran with a track record who managed to hit a three-run homer the day before, against a lefty.

At this point, Ordonez should never start over Raburn. Ever. And using him as the DH against a rightie? Managerial malpractice. Interestingly, Ordonez does have an 846 OPS against lefties. This whole vesting option situation could easily resolve itself if Ordonez was used only against lefties. It seems a defensible move on many levels.

If the Tigers used him exclusively against lefties, and platooned him with Clete Thomas in RF, I could live with that.

That written, I highly doubt Jim would only use him as a platoon player, which means Ordonez will play far more than he should (like playing him at DH against RHP, instead of Raburn and/or Thames) if he is on the team.

In short, I want to cut Ordonez because I don't think Leyland can resist the urge to play him far more than his current skills dictate.

[Seattle Mike]

Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth

If the Tigers used him exclusively against lefties, and platooned him with Clete Thomas in RF, I could live with that.

That written, I highly doubt Jim would only use him as a platoon player, which means Ordonez will play far more than he should (like playing him at DH against RHP, instead of Raburn and/or Thames) if he is on the team.

In short, I want to cut Ordonez because I don't think Leyland can resist the urge to play him far more than his current skills dictate.

You're right, that's how it would probably play out. I was surprised, though, when I looked at Mags' numbers against lefties. But the Tigers have multiple options against lefties, and given everything else I'm in favor of dumping him as well.

[ballmich]

Jeter had a tough season last year... I'm not going to add up the PA's or games, but through a similar number of games/PAs he had a low .700's OPS. He finished with a .771 OPS and is looking much better this year. Plus he is a poor defender at a much more important position defensively than Maggs.

My only point is that 300 PAs doesn't mean Magg's career is over. It could be, and I would be surprised if he bounces back, but it's not a foregone conclusion yet. The vesting options make this tough, but I don't see how the Tigers can yank him yet. And if they don't cut ties sooner than later, the closer he gets to the vesting mark, the more ammo the player's association is going to have when they file their greivance.

[sportz4life]

Originally Posted by ballmich

Jeter had a tough season last year... I'm not going to add up the PA's or games, but through a similar number of games/PAs he had a low .700's OPS. He finished with a .771 OPS and is looking much better this year. Plus he is a poor defender at a much more important position defensively than Maggs.

My only point is that 300 PAs doesn't mean Magg's career is over. It could be, and I would be surprised if he bounces back, but it's not a foregone conclusion yet. The vesting options make this tough, but I don't see how the Tigers can yank him yet. And if they don't cut ties sooner than later, the closer he gets to the vesting mark, the more ammo the player's association is going to have when they file their greivance.

Or if he keeps hitting like Danny Worth the less amo the players association would have..how about the amo the Tigers have in how the have afforded him every opportunity to succeed and his failure measured by every available metric says he should be benched.or at best platooned.

[thewave84]

The Tigers should keep playing him in the field for another 100 or so ABs. Since his numbers are going down (I'm inclined to think that the 3 hits in Minnesota were a blip) this would strengthen their case. Plus they could still get bailed out by an injury - the best thing for everyone (except Boras) would just be for Magglio to get hurt. Then he gets to save face by not being benched or released and the Tigers would be protected from a grievance.

[Tyrus]

Originally Posted by sportz4life

What if monkeys flew out of my..oh..skip that..but the probability quotient of the above referenced Magglio scenario, would favor the monkeys

So the chances of Magglio reverting to his career norms are the same as monkeys flying out of your butt?

Is it normal for you to have flying monkeys in your butt?

[Tyrus]

Originally Posted by ballmich

My only point is that 300 PAs doesn't mean Magg's career is over. It could be, and I would be surprised if he bounces back, but it's not a foregone conclusion yet.

Maybe not to you or Dumbrowski. But on Motownsports? It's a foregone conclusion. There's no room for discussion on this matter: Magglio is done. Period.

Just like Sheffield was done.

[ballmich]

Originally Posted by sportz4life

Or if he keeps hitting like Danny Worth the less amo the players association would have..how about the amo the Tigers have in how the have afforded him every opportunity to succeed and his failure measured by every available metric says he should be benched.or at best platooned.

Okay, so you think that the Tigers will win the grievance, if/when Maggs is released. I disagree, and feel confident that they will have to pay out. Perhaps not the full vesting option(s) but certainly a good portion of it.

In the mean time, go ahead and throw out all the silly comps you want. It doesn't change the fact that there are still metrics that say Maggs is a competitant MLB caliber player. And if you don't think the MLBPA and Boras will be highlighting those in the grievance hearing, then I don't know what to tell you... colorful references to Worth or not.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by Tyrus

Maybe not to you or Dumbrowski. But on Motownsports? It's a foregone conclusion. There's no room for discussion on this matter: Magglio is done. Period.

Just like Sheffield was done.

I seem to remember quite a few people wanting them to keep Sheffield. As for Ordonez, I think he is probably done as a productive player but a comeback wouldn't be unprecedented. There is a difference between probably and maybe and that difference is the source of the majority of debates on this board.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by ballmich

Okay, so you think that the Tigers will win the grievance, if/when Maggs is released. I disagree, and feel confident that they will have to pay out. Perhaps not the full vesting option(s) but certainly a good portion of it.

In the mean time, go ahead and throw out all the silly comps you want. It doesn't change the fact that there are still metrics that say Maggs is a competitant MLB caliber player. And if you don't think the MLBPA and Boras will be highlighting those in the grievance hearing, then I don't know what to tell you... colorful references to Worth or not.

What metrics make Magglio an effective MLB player?

Why do you think the Tigers would lose a grievance?

How bad does Magglio have to be to justify benching or being cut?

I, for one, am frankly getting annoyed with the notion that it is somehow unacceptable to bench or release Magglio in favor of a better player, especially when Magglio has been a really, really ineffective player. Its not like Magglio is merely average, he is one the worst starting RF in MLB. One of the worst.

Clete Thomas, at this point, is likely to be a more effective player than Magglio. Playing Ordonez in favor of Thomas has almost certainly hurt the Tigers thus far. Continuing to do so will likely result in same. What possible justification is there in continuing to play Magglio every day? Because he signed a contract in 2005 that would vest in 2010 if he got enough PA in 2009? I think the purpose of that option was to cover the contingency if Magglio were an effective player in 2009 - a player the Tigers would want to play should no contract exist - not if he could merely put on a uniform.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by ballmich

Jeter had a tough season last year... I'm not going to add up the PA's or games, but through a similar number of games/PAs he had a low .700's OPS. He finished with a .771 OPS and is looking much better this year. Plus he is a poor defender at a much more important position defensively than Maggs.

My only point is that 300 PAs doesn't mean Magg's career is over. It could be, and I would be surprised if he bounces back, but it's not a foregone conclusion yet. The vesting options make this tough, but I don't see how the Tigers can yank him yet. And if they don't cut ties sooner than later, the closer he gets to the vesting mark, the more ammo the player's association is going to have when they file their greivance.

I frankly don't care if he is or isn't done at this point. The likely fact of the matter is that at this stage of the season, the difference in production for the remainder of the season between Ordonez and Thomas would be minimal, and it is at least a 50%/50% chance Thomas would outperform Ordonez.

So why take on an unnecessary expense in 2010 for what is likely to be no upgrade in performance (and could very well be worse performance) in 2009?

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Tyrus

Maybe not to you or Dumbrowski. But on Motownsports? It's a foregone conclusion. There's no room for discussion on this matter: Magglio is done. Period.

Just like Sheffield was done.

So when is it OK to cut Ordonez?

[ballmich]

Originally Posted by thewave84

Plus they could still get bailed out by an injury - the best thing for everyone (except Boras) would just be for Magglio to get hurt. Then he gets to save face by not being benched or released and the Tigers would be protected from a grievance.

Dude, I said the exact same thing about Dmitri Young. If you are going to play him and let him attain the vesting option, MAKE HIM PLAY THE FIELD. Odds are with DY, he would have never stayed healthy enough to hit that $8M option year.

Fast forward to 2009, why the heck is Maggs leading this team in games at DH???? Make him play the field. The best "out" of the vesting option is an injury.... I have no idea why we are protecting this guy with one hand, and then on the other hoping he doesn't meet his vesting option.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by ballmich

Dude, I said the exact same thing about Dmitri Young. If you are going to play him and let him attain the vesting option, MAKE HIM PLAY THE FIELD. Odds are with DY, he would have never stayed healthy enough to hit that $8M option year.

Fast forward to 2009, why the heck is Maggs leading this team in games at DH???? Make him play the field. The best "out" of the vesting option is an injury.... I have no idea why we are protecting this guy with one hand, and then on the other hoping he doesn't meet his vesting option.

Maybe it is because Magglio can't play in the field effectively anymore, and the Tigers want to limit the damage done by having him in the line-up.

Which is part of a good argument that he isn't an effective RF and argues against him being able to win a grievance.

[Oblong]

Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth

Maybe it is because Magglio can't play in the field effectively anymore, and the Tigers want to limit the damage done by having him in the line-up.

Which is part of a good argument that he isn't an effective RF and argues against him being able to win a grievance.

Seriously. What's the point of keeping a singles hitter and constant DP threat when that player can't play defense very well and has to be ran for late in games? We already have Josh Anderson and at least he can do the last 2 things.

[63 Tiger]

Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth

I frankly don't care if he is or isn't done at this point. The likely fact of the matter is that at this stage of the season, the difference in production for the remainder of the season between Ordonez and Thomas would be minimal, and it is at least a 50%/50% chance Thomas would outperform Ordonez.

The likely fact? No

Pure speculation? Yes

[The Truman Show]

Originally Posted by 63 Tiger

The likely fact? No

Pure speculation? Yes

It's not a likely fact that Magglio continues to do what he's done all year?

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by 63 Tiger

The likely fact? No

Pure speculation? Yes

Pardon me?

Please provide some numbers that illustrate that Magglio Ordonez is likely to be 5 runs or better than Clete Thomas the rest of the season. In other words, please refute the following post with a good counter-argument. Otherwise, it is fair to state that it is a likely fact that Ordonez will not perform significantly better than Thomas over half of a season.

Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth

Supposing that Magglio could start hitting to the tune of his career average OPS+, which is 127, and coincidentally happens to match what he did in 2008, what is 1/2 season's worth of that (2008) offense worth?

Well, using runs created formula, he is estimated to have created 96 runs in 2008 and used 421 outs to do it. So 1/2 of a season of that level of production is 48 runs, 210.5 outs used.

Clete Thomas MLB career average offense, projected for 1/2 a seasons worth of play is 37.5 runs created, 195.5 outs used.

So even if Ordonez could start hitting to his career norms, he is likely only worth an extra 10.5 runs of offense over Thomas, which is offset slightly by Magglio using 15 extra outs to create those runs, so the real difference is closer to 8 runs. Throw the defensive and baserunning advantages Thomas provides, and the difference is probably at most a 5 run advantage for Ordonez. All provided Ordonez matches his career average offense for the rest of the season.

Please note the above argument presumes Ordonez returns to 2008 levels of hitting, which mirrors his career average closely. If Ordonez continues to strugge offensively, Thomas is a better player, almost without doubt.

[Shelton]

Do I need to come in here and break out the CBA again?

Maggs will not win a grievance. The wording of the CBA makes it nearly impossible for the union to win a grievance when a player is cut for performance based reasons. The reason for this is that termination pay is owed in that case. It is a simple case of both sides win. The team gets to construct its lineup as it sees fit, and the players get the money currently due under their contract even if they are the worst player in the league.

There is nothing in the CBA preventing a player from being cut for financial based reasons. There is also nothing in the CBA preventing a player from being cut for supporting Chavez, or cutting his hair.

There are always going to be multiple reasons for releasing a player. The only thing a team has to do is point to one of the listed allowable reasons.

Boras wasn't coming to the defense of his client to show that they would win a grievance. He was coming to the defense of his client to try to garner public support for Magglio and make it a tougher public sell because he knows they don't have a valid argument when it comes to the CBA. There is a reason he went to the writers and didn't go straight to Leyland or DD.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Oblong

Seriously. What's the point of keeping a singles hitter and constant DP threat when that player can't play defense very well and has to be ran for late in games? We already have Josh Anderson and at least he can do the last 2 things.

There is no point. It is pointless.

I frankly believe they are hanging onto him as long as they can to convince themselves, the fanbase, and possibly some arbitrator should a grievance be filed that Magglio is ineffective as a player. The problem with that is he is tying up a roster spot and taking playing time away from more effective players, which hurts the Tigers chances to win.

[84 Lives!!!]

Originally Posted by ballmich

...My only point is that 300 PAs doesn't mean Magg's career is over. It could be, and I would be surprised if he bounces back, but it's not a foregone conclusion yet. The vesting options make this tough, but I don't see how the Tigers can yank him yet. And if they don't cut ties sooner than later, the closer he gets to the vesting mark, the more ammo the player's association is going to have when they file their greivance.

Which means they should cut him now.

There's no reason to let him get close to his vesting #'s and make it more problematic to make the cut.

There's no reason to give Leyland even the CHANCE to play him enough to vest.

There's no reason to even CHANCE that he will recover some value in 2010 and beyond... CERTAINLY no reason to take a $15 mill chance...

IF he recovers some ability - with ANOTHER team - this year, and Detroit is so very interested in getting him back on the team: sign him this offseason to a 2-year $10-12 mill contract. But... I don't see that happening. Not the offensive resurgance/ not another Detroit contract...

I do see him getting cut though. Or at least I am HOPING that my crystal ball is not giving me false readings...

[will the thrill]

Originally Posted by ballmich

Dude, I said the exact same thing about Dmitri Young. If you are going to play him and let him attain the vesting option, MAKE HIM PLAY THE FIELD. Odds are with DY, he would have never stayed healthy enough to hit that $8M option year.

Fast forward to 2009, why the heck is Maggs leading this team in games at DH???? Make him play the field. The best "out" of the vesting option is an injury.... I have no idea why we are protecting this guy with one hand, and then on the other hoping he doesn't meet his vesting option.

I smell another "Anxiety Disorder" coming on