Maggs breaking out of it??

[Edman85]

Originally Posted by Tyrus

I think the worst thing from a long-term organizational standpoint would be for Magglio to start tearing the cover off the ball.

But that would also be the best thing from a short-term organizational standpoint.

Maggs hitting the cover off the ball for the next four months would go a long way toward paying for the vesting options...

[ToledoTigerFan]

Originally Posted by Just Some Dude

Can an admin please delete my account, seriously. I am obviously a complete moron and a cheerleader.

Ban my account and block my IP so I can never come back.

Don't get discouraged. You're not a complete moron. Not yet, at least. You still have work to do to reach that status, so stick around to work on it.

[sportz4life]

Originally Posted by Just Some Dude

Can an admin please delete my account, seriously. I am obviously a complete moron and a cheerleader.

Ban my account and block my IP so I can never come back.

Drama

[will the thrill]

Originally Posted by sportz4life

WOW..guy hits one fastball and he's breaking out of it. Every other hit recentlly was off an offspeed pitch..dont get to excited. Let's revisit this in about 2 weeks after he has hit the ball hard off some righthanded pitchers that throw hard.

i don't think he's breaking out of it, but anyone who's ever hit knows sometimes all it takes is one swing to pull your head out of your butt and figure it out

[Chopper]

Originally Posted by sportz4life

I could care less..cheer away..wear an outfit..wanna discuss the reality of his baseball skills..they're separate. anything that helps the Detroit Tigers win I am all for..but that being said..it doesnt dismiss the physical realities of 300 at bats. One swing doesn't change that.

Nah. I'd rather live in fantasy land and hope for the best.

[socaltiger]

Can someone please explain to me when his 2011 option vests. Is it 2010 and 2011 together or are they seperate ?

[84 Lives!!!]

Platoon him against LH'ers ONLY and hope he gets hot & tears the cover off the ball... against lefties.

Solves alot of problems if Leyland could hold him to platoon-only duties...

[Tressel]

I hope he is just cut, b/c chances are even if he does start to hit well enough to justify keeping him on the team and his 2 option years kicking in, the chances of him continuing to hit well enough to keep him on the team in '10 & 11 are probably not good at all, so it is best to just get it over with and let him go.....

[wingnut736]

While I don't think Maggs will ever get it back, I think people aren't realizing that if he does start tearing the cover off the ball, his trade value will go up. I think that would be the route we'd take if he ever lit it up, because we just can't afford him if we want a future.

[TigerPride]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Am I the only one here that hopes he DOESN'T turn it around?? I just don't see him being anywhere near worth the money the next 2 years. I'd rather they used it elsewhere.

I will forever be grateful for what he's done over the last few years but it's time to move on.

I've been watching this very close. Tiger management cannot allow Maggs option to kick in. A hot streak that allowed this to happen could easily go south for the rest of the season once the option kicked in. The remainer of the contact would be a bad return on money invested.

I see this more as rooting for the Tigers than rooting against Maggs. Simply put,the money saved could be put to better use for the team's sake.

[sportz4life]

Originally Posted by wingnut736

While I don't think Maggs will ever get it back, I think people aren't realizing that if he does start tearing the cover off the ball, his trade value will go up. I think that would be the route we'd take if he ever lit it up, because we just can't afford him if we want a future.

Let's clarify this..NOBODY will trade for Magglio Ordonez with the prospect of paying him 18MM in 2010, they wouldn't claim him on waivers (for free) with that obligation. Nobody not the Sultan of Brunei..nobody.

[Tressel]

Originally Posted by wingnut736

While I don't think Maggs will ever get it back, I think people aren't realizing that if he does start tearing the cover off the ball, his trade value will go up. I think that would be the route we'd take if he ever lit it up, because we just can't afford him if we want a future.

what trade value? I don't think teams are going to be looking to trade for a 36 year old RFer with no range that is owed $30 million over 2 years who has rapidly declining skills

[ToledoTigerFan]

I think Leyland values his integrity too much to risk it by not playing Magglio if playing Magglio makes the team better. If Magglio continues to show his problems were just a funk and he's finally found his stroke(and he hasn't done that yet), he'll play everyday and not just against lefties or in situations where he tends to succeed.

[kdog]

Originally Posted by ToledoTigerFan

I think Leyland values his integrity too much to risk it by not playing Magglio if playing Magglio makes the team better. If Magglio continues to show his problems were just a funk and he's finally found his stroke(and he hasn't done that yet), he'll play everyday and not just against lefties or in situations where he tends to succeed.

I don't see how this is a question of integrity. It's a question of intelligence and financial flexiblity. If the lawyers don't think you'll lose a grievance, the GM has to take Ordonez out of the equation.

[Chili Mac Davis]

Magglio needs to go to management and say, "I know I've stunk this year, and I know you're paying me millions this year. Let's cancel the rest of the contract (2010-11) because you and I both know I don't deserve it. How may million does a guy really need?"

Unlikely, but that would be the honorable thing to do. One can always hope. A few fans or media members encouraging him to do this might help.

Heck, I remember when Al Kaline turned down a raise because he thought he hadn't had a good enough year.

[Bubba]

Originally Posted by Chili Mac Davis

Heck, I remember when Al Kaline turned down a raise because he thought he hadn't had a good enough year.

There is no one in sports today that would do this... its sad but very true.

[84 Lives!!!]

Originally Posted by wingnut736

... I think people aren't realizing that if he does start tearing the cover off the ball, his trade value will go up...

Maggs has ZERO trade value.

Now. Today. Tomorrow. Rest of the season. ZERO. No matter HOW much tearing off the cover of the ball he does.

Period.

You realize that, don't you?

[sportz4life]

Nice swings today..2.. 26 hopopers and a whiff..he's back all right..

[kdog]

Since the 3 game benching vs. Milwaukee,
36 AB, 8 hits, 2 HR, 1 Double, 1 BB, 9 K

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Earlier I stated that I wouldn't want him even if he started hitting the cover off of the ball. I looked at the numbers, and I think that is a reasonable position.

Supposing that Magglio could start hitting to the tune of his career average OPS+, which is 127, and coincidentally happens to match what he did in 2008, what is 1/2 season's worth of that (2008) offense worth?

Well, using runs created formula, he is estimated to have created 96 runs in 2008 and used 421 outs to do it. So 1/2 of a season of that level of production is 48 runs, 210.5 outs used.

Clete Thomas MLB career average offense, projected for 1/2 a seasons worth of play is 37.5 runs created, 195.5 outs used.

So even if Ordonez could start hitting to his career norms, he is likely only worth an extra 10.5 runs of offense over Thomas, which is offset slightly by Magglio using 15 extra outs to create those runs, so the real difference is closer to 8 runs. Throw the defensive and baserunning advantages Thomas provides, and the difference is probably at most a 5 run advantage for Ordonez. All provided Ordonez matches his career average offense for the rest of the season.

I am sorry, there is no freaking way I would take 5 extra runs of net value if it meant I were locked into 2 years of paying $33M

In order for it to be worthwhile, Magglio would have to OPS+ > 200 for half of a season, which ain't going to happen. Time to move on.

[The Truman Show]

Well, vesting 2010 doesn't vest 2011. But, otherwise, terrific post Bigglesworth.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by The Truman Show

Well, vesting 2010 doesn't vest 2011. But, otherwise, terrific post Bigglesworth.

I did not know that.

I still wouldn't lock myself into $15M next year for an extra 5 runs of production this year.

[Chili Mac Davis]

So we mostly all agree that we don't want him at this price even if he performs well.

Makes sense to me. What we don't know is Mr. I's financial sensitivity, and is that greater than his love for Maggs.

He needs to get out while he can.

[ToledoTigerFan]

Originally Posted by sportz4life

Nice swings today..2.. 26 hopopers and a whiff..he's back all right..

That describes a lot of guys today. There were a ton of lousy at-bats.

What's with the swining at the first pitch all the time? There was a lot of that today, also. Cabrera and Magglio being the biggest offenders. A pitcher could almost roll it up there on the first pitch and Cabrera would swing. Be a little choosier, boys.

[caseyo4]

Originally Posted by Chili Mac Davis

Magglio needs to go to management and say, "I know I've stunk this year, and I know you're paying me millions this year. Let's cancel the rest of the contract (2010-11) because you and I both know I don't deserve it. How may million does a guy really need?"

Unlikely, but that would be the honorable thing to do. One can always hope. A few fans or media members encouraging him to do this might help.

Heck, I remember when Al Kaline turned down a raise because he thought he hadn't had a good enough year.

Players union and his agent would kill him, no way it'd happen...

[Tim Mitchell]

let me think about that for a minute...NO! He is not.
and what was our record while Maggs was out?

[Edman85]

Originally Posted by Tim Mitchell

and what was our record while Maggs was out?

Who cares? It's a team sport

[tigerbomb13]

Wob Parker just said on WDIV Sports Final Edition that his "moles" were telling him that the Tigers are working on a trade with the Cubs. Magglio for Milton Bradley. Right Rob

[The Truman Show]

Originally Posted by tigerbomb13

Wob Parker just said on WDIV Sports Final Edition that his "moles" were telling him that the Tigers are working on a trade with the Cubs. Magglio for Milton Bradley. Right Rob

I could see the Cubs doing that just to try and save face for getting that moron. I don't see Mr. I or DD wanting any part of it.

[InfanteIago]

Originally Posted by tigerbomb13

Wob Parker just said on WDIV Sports Final Edition that his "moles" were telling him that the Tigers are working on a trade with the Cubs. Magglio for Milton Bradley. Right Rob

Even though I don't believe that rumor I would be all for it.

[Tyrus]

Originally Posted by Chopper

Nah. I'd rather live in fantasy land and hope for the best.

Why not? Some people get enough "reality" in their everyday lives, and they turn to sports for an escape.

So if some fans want to live in fantasy land and hope for the best...what's wrong with that?

[Tyrus]

Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth

Earlier I stated that I wouldn't want him even if he started hitting the cover off of the ball. I looked at the numbers, and I think that is a reasonable position.

Supposing that Magglio could start hitting to the tune of his career average OPS+, which is 127, and coincidentally happens to match what he did in 2008, what is 1/2 season's worth of that (2008) offense worth?

Well, using runs created formula, he is estimated to have created 96 runs in 2008 and used 421 outs to do it. So 1/2 of a season of that level of production is 48 runs, 210.5 outs used.
....

In order for it to be worthwhile, Magglio would have to OPS+ > 200 for half of a season, which ain't going to happen. Time to move on.

But you're leaving out the postseason. What if Magglio reverted to his career average for the rest of the season and continued that fine hitting through the postseason, enabling the Tigers to win the World Series? Would that be worth it?

To me, it would -- even if he never played another game after 2009.

[Tyrus]

Originally Posted by tigerbomb13

Wob Parker just said on WDIV Sports Final Edition that his "moles" were telling him that the Tigers are working on a trade with the Cubs. Magglio for Milton Bradley. Right Rob

Does Rob Parker ever utter a sentence without mentioning a black ballplayer? Ever?

[DET Mr Malefic]

Originally Posted by InfanteIago

Even though I don't believe that rumor I would be all for it.

+1

[The Truman Show]

Originally Posted by Tyrus

But you're leaving out the postseason. What if Magglio reverted to his career average for the rest of the season and continued that fine hitting through the postseason, enabling the Tigers to win the World Series? Would that be worth it?

To me, it would -- even if he never played another game after 2009.

That's quite the "what if" though. They would pretty much have to win another pennant for it to be worth it.

[tiger337]

I think that's the first time Infanteiago ever got a +1

[DET Mr Malefic]

Originally Posted by tiger337

I think that's the first time Infanteiago ever got a +1

The World where Magglio Ordonez slugs .353 is indeed a strange one. It's like the alternate universe in the "Mirror, Mirror" episode of Star Trek.

EDIT: In just typing the above, it brought to my attention the fact that his slugging percentage is lower than his 2007 batting average.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Tyrus

But you're leaving out the postseason. What if Magglio reverted to his career average for the rest of the season and continued that fine hitting through the postseason, enabling the Tigers to win the World Series? Would that be worth it?

To me, it would -- even if he never played another game after 2009.

I left out the post-season because it is highly unlikely that either of the following, let alone both, occurring:

a. Magglio can revert to career norms for hitting, and

b. the slight advantage that Magglio would provide in such an instance over Thomas is the difference between making the post-season or not.

A 5-run difference in overall performance is likely worth either 0 or 1 extra win. Even presuming Magglio's play leads to 1 extra win relative to Thomas (which again REQUIRES him to revert to 2008 levels of offense immediately), that extra win only matters if the Tigers would have finished either tied or 1-game back in the division had Magglio not been released / benched in favor of Thomas. Not only that, supposing the Tigers finished tied, they still could win the tie-breaker without Ordonez or lose it with him.

I think the likelihood that Ordonez returns to form is maybe 10%. I think the likelihood that the Tigers make the postseason with Ordonez and would not have otherwise is also around 10%. That makes for a 1% chance (10% X 10%) it even matters. It ain't worth $15M to find out. Heck, even if one bumps the odds up to 25% for each event, the likelihood both come to pass is still only 6.25%. Seems like an insanely expensive insurance policy to me.

Frankly, I think the Tigers are simply losing runs right now by playing Ordonez over Thomas. They HAVE almost certainly done so up until this point this season. Where is the hand wringing over that? Maybe the Tigers would be a game or two better than they are right now if they had been simply playing Thomas.

I read various posters suggest that the Tigers should do anything to get into the post-season, and that includes vesting Ordonez. My view is doing anything to get in the post-season almost certainly probably means benching or releasing Ordonez. Time to move on. The Tigers have better internal options.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Originally Posted by InfanteIago

Even though I don't believe that rumor I would be all for it.

I agree with this as well.

Bradley switch hits, is better and more flexible defensively, and almost certainly has more in the tank than Ordonez. He also is one of only a few players that I think the concept 'benefits from a change of scenery' might apply to.

[tater6]

Originally Posted by Tyrus

But you're leaving out the postseason. What if Magglio reverted to his career average for the rest of the season and continued that fine hitting through the postseason, enabling the Tigers to win the World Series? Would that be worth it?

To me, it would -- even if he never played another game after 2009.

What if Willis or Robertson reverted to their career average blah blah blah....

The chances of this happening are the same so don't hold your breath waiting for it.