What is your biggest concern with the Tigers?

[jake]

We are winning with mirrors right now. This is the type of team chemistry-wise that I think can keep doing it all year, though.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by jake

We are winning with mirrors right now. This is the type of team chemistry-wise that I think can keep doing it all year, though.

I thought they were winning with pitching and defense.

[A.J.K.]

Originally Posted by tiger337

I thought they were winning with pitching and defense.

Yeah, but Knapp uses a mirror in his instruction.

[jake]

Originally Posted by tiger337

I thought they were winning with pitching and defense.

True. The performances of Jackson, Rodney, Porcello and Verlander from a pitching standpoint have carried this team from that standpoint. The offense has been criticized but we've had tons of timely hits. The infield defense, catching defense, and even the outfield defense has been excellent. Historically, Verlander usually has a huge dip late July/early August and Porcello won't be able to keep up what he's doing. Knowing that, I still think this is one of those teams where if the pitching struggles a little the offense will pick them up and vice versa.

[DTroppens]

It's a team with three bats - Granderson, Inge and Cabrera - and that's a concern. It's also a team that has two strong starters, one that you wonder if he's going to get shut down eventually and then two black holes. It's hard to believe the team can win a division by doing the revolving door with Toledo/Erie hurlers every fifth or sixth day.

I think it'll probably catch up to the team eventually. You hope it doesn't, but I still look at this as a sub-.500 team, as silly as that may sound right now with them being 8 over .500. But then you look at the rest of the division and someone has to finish with 85-86 wins and make the playoffs - why not the Tigers? I can probably make a post like this for every team in the division right now.

[Seattle Mike]

Originally Posted by DTroppens

It's a team with three bats - Granderson, Inge and Cabrera - and that's a concern. It's also a team that has two strong starters, one that you wonder if he's going to get shut down eventually and then two black holes. It's hard to believe the team can win a division by doing the revolving door with Toledo/Erie hurlers every fifth or sixth day.

I think it'll probably catch up to the team eventually. You hope it doesn't, but I still look at this as a sub-.500 team, as silly as that may sound right now with them being 8 over .500. But then you look at the rest of the division and someone has to finish with 85-86 wins and make the playoffs - why not the Tigers? I can probably make a post like this for every team in the division right now.

My feelings exactly. I think it's possible the Tigers could play .500 or slightly above .500 ball the rest of the way. And that will be enough to keep them in the race and maybe even win it.

But this is a flawed team, one with a record much better than they deserve. I believe their third-order wins over at BP is 37.5, so they're playing 4+ plus games over their expected record.

I'm tickled they're playing meaningful games but under no delusions they are, in the true sense, a playoff caliber team (which of course doesn't matter once you get in, look at the Cardinals of 2006, yada, yada, yada).

[diamondhead]

I'm worried about a lot of things on this team. An injury to Granderson, Inge and especially Cabrera would be devastating to an already weak offense. I'm worried that Verlander will run out of gas. I'm worried Jackson will pitch like he did in the 2nd half of last season. I'm worried that the Tigers will never find acceptable performance out of the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. I'm especially worried that this team will have an awful August/September just like every Tiger team has had since the year 2001.

The only thing I'm not worried about is Cabrera's offense.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by jake

True. The performances of Jackson, Rodney, Porcello and Verlander from a pitching standpoint have carried this team from that standpoint. The offense has been criticized but we've had tons of timely hits. The infield defense, catching defense, and even the outfield defense has been excellent. Historically, Verlander usually has a huge dip late July/early August and Porcello won't be able to keep up what he's doing. Knowing that, I still think this is one of those teams where if the pitching struggles a little the offense will pick them up and vice versa.

They have scored 363 runs this year which is 20 more than they should have scored according to their numbers of walks, singles, doubles, etc. so your timely hit theory seems to be correct. I'm not counting on them keeping that up though. If their pitchers tire which I think they will, they will need more offense through trade or from players on the team or in the system.

Another thing that needs to happen is for the division to stay mediocre. If Minnesota or Chicago decides to have a big second half, then they will likely pass the Tigers. Minnesota scares me the most.

[sabretooth]

I guess I'm not worried about the offense because we know what we've got. We have only been "lucky" with Inge. We have been "unlucky" with getting zeros from Guillen, Thames and Maggs for the first half.

The disappearance of run support will be an occasional problem, but overall production should be mediocre, which can be good enough if our rotation holds.

I think Verlander is a solid bet to repeat his overall first half level.

I think Jackson will be less than spectacular, but still above average.

I think the #4 and #5 positions (whoever they will be) will be below average (hopefully not killers) and basically offset Verlander and Jackson.

That leaves the #3 position with Porcello -- I think where he goes in the second half, so will our rotation. He's very young and inexperienced, and he's likely to tire, and that concerns me more than anything else.

[jake]

Originally Posted by tiger337

They have scored 363 runs this year which is 20 more than they should have scored according to their numbers of walks, singles, doubles, etc. so your timely hit theory seems to be correct. I'm not counting on them keeping that up though. If their pitchers tire which I think they will, they will need more offense through trade or from players on the team or in the system.

Another thing that needs to happen is for the division to stay mediocre. If Minnesota or Chicago decides to have a big second half, then they will likely pass the Tigers. Minnesota scares me the most.

I'd like to see Guillen back. That's like picking somebody up in a trade. Thames could have a big 2nd half, also. I think Laird will really pick it up. He seems to be gaining confidence. Cabrera could have a huge 2nd half. You can't count on Inge to be nearly as productive in the 2nd half (hopefully he will, though). Polanco should be better. It really all boils down to Verlander, Jackson, and Rodney, though. If those 3 continue to pitch like they have, we'll be in the fight until the end.

[jaymo]

Originally Posted by tiger337

They have scored 363 runs this year which is 20 more than they should have scored according to their numbers of walks, singles, doubles, etc. so your timely hit theory seems to be correct. I'm not counting on them keeping that up though. If their pitchers tire which I think they will, they will need more offense through trade or from players on the team or in the system.

Another thing that needs to happen is for the division to stay mediocre. If Minnesota or Chicago decides to have a big second half, then they will likely pass the Tigers. Minnesota scares me the most.

Your post made me look at expected wins and losses based on runs. The Tigers have won two more than expected and the Twins have lost two more than expected. So, if both teams keep scoring and allowing runs at the same rate we have to hope the lead from the first half the season carries us through.

(Or we find a fifth pitcher or another hitter.)

Gulp.

[sabretooth]

Originally Posted by jake

I'd like to see Guillen back. That's like picking somebody up in a trade. Thames could have a big 2nd half, also. I think Laird will really pick it up. He seems to be gaining confidence. Cabrera could have a huge 2nd half. You can't count on Inge to be nearly as productive in the 2nd half (hopefully he will, though). Polanco should be better. It really all boils down to Verlander, Jackson, and Rodney, though. If those 3 continue to pitch like they have, we'll be in the fight until the end.

I agree with Thames and Polanco being potentially big pluses.

I think Laird and Guillen are likely not to contribute much.

The bullpen could easily go to hell in a handbasket, but they have some good spare parts in reserve (Ni, Rapada, etc.) that could offset some problems.

[DTroppens]

Originally Posted by tiger337

Another thing that needs to happen is for the division to stay mediocre. If Minnesota or Chicago decides to have a big second half, then they will likely pass the Tigers. Minnesota scares me the most.

My best guess right now - I'd put the over-under for the most wins in this division at about 86 right now. The Tigers right now are a bit over that pace right now, while the Twins and White Sox would have to play about .550 ball the rest of the way. I'm guessing 85-87 wins will win this thing.

I think the Twins scare me the most as well, but I think it's more gut feeling that tells me that than "breaking it down."

[ToledoTigerFan]

Injuries that lead to a significant loss of playing time to any one of the following..... Cabrera, Inge, Laird, Granderson, Verlander, Jackson, and Seay. Anyone else that gets injured I feel as if there is an equal or close to equal replacement.

[tiger337]

Originally Posted by jake

I'd like to see Guillen back. That's like picking somebody up in a trade. Thames could have a big 2nd half, also. I think Laird will really pick it up. He seems to be gaining confidence.

I think Laird got tired because he was playing too much. Now that they have a backup who can hit, he can rest more and hit better. Guillen would be a big boost if he gets back to where he was the first half of last year. I have doubts about him staying healthy though.

[The Truman Show]

Originally Posted by ToledoTigerFan

Injuries that lead to a significant loss of playing time to any one of the following..... Cabrera, Inge, Laird, Granderson, Verlander, Jackson, and Seay. Anyone else that gets injured I feel as if there is an equal or close to equal replacement.

Agreed and that's my main concern. I still believe the team, as constructed right now, is the best in the division. But if a key injury happens, I don't know if we could replace it. I'd add Rodney to your list.

[TigersFan81371]

I'd like to see some more offense, and I don't think Maggs is going to be providing any of it. I'm curious to see what kind of wheeling and dealing DD might be able to pull off to get another bat into the lineup.

I'd like to see Zumaya throwing more strikes.

I'd like to see the back of the rotation solidified. Hopefully French can give them a boost, even if he turns out to be just a short-term guy. I don't think AG has much leash left, so another change is probably on the horizon.

[Eric Cioe]

Originally Posted by sabretooth

That leaves the #3 position with Porcello -- I think where he goes in the second half, so will our rotation. He's very young and inexperienced, and he's likely to tire, and that concerns me more than anything else.

That's my thought, too. The back end of the rotation as a whole is scary but if Porcello throws 150 decent innings in the 3 spot, that makes it look much better.

Cabrera, Granderson, and Inge will end up just fine by the end of the season. Laird and Everett will be fine once the whole package of offense and defense are concerned. Polanco and Santiago will probably be in that group, too. The offense could improve a good deal if they got any production at all out of the corner outfield and DH spots. Hopefully Thames can hold down the DH spot for a while. You know, they could even punt the hope of getting great offense out of the corners and just get average offense and great defense from some combination of Raburn/Clete/Anderson/Ramirez. Right now, right field is a black hole on both sides of the ball. If they could get league average offense from there and good defense, that would make the team better.

[jake]

Now that I think about it, Fernando Rodney is my biggest concern. . . I can't believe how well Brandon Lyon has been throwing, though.

[tigermojo]

The biggest concern is Magglio. The lack of production with bad defense and a big contract looming is a scary thing. I had predicted at the start of the season he would win the batting title this year because he was batting ahead of Cabrera. That doesn't look likely now. If Ordonez was producing this team would be the clear favorite. If they can pick up a good bat to replace him, they'd be in good shape.

The starting rotation concerns me the least. I think the top three can continue to pitch above average in the second half. The big surprise to everyone will be Galarraga. I think he's tired right now. We saw how well he did at the beginning of the season when he was well rested but now all those innings last year have caught up to him. After the All-Star break, I predict he's going to pitch much better and give us four solid starters. One of my predictions has to work out at some point.

[Clancy]

Originally Posted by jake

We are winning with mirrors right now. This is the type of team chemistry-wise that I think can keep doing it all year, though.

I don't particularly agree with this fellow on a number of points.... but apparently you're not the only one who thinks we're winning with "smoke and mirrors". He also promotes the whole Adam Dunn thing.

Power Rankings: Cubs failing chemistry class - MLB - CBSSports.com Baseball

"I have less of an idea what to make of the Tigers than I do any other team in the majors. On paper, the lineup is anorexic and the pitching staff is shallow. Yet here they are on the last day of June, eight games over .500 despite only outscoring their opponents by 21 runs ... Of course, the .500 Twins have outscored theirs by 25, meaning that the Tigers have enjoyed some fine luck ... It's too bad the Tigers lack the cash to add any non-discounted player, as Adam Dunn would be a perfect fit here ... I'm not going to riff on the names of Alfredo "Opera Al" Figaro or Fu-Te "Futey Knee" Ni. Nope. Not me. I'm better than that and so are you."

[Eric Cioe]

Originally Posted by tigermojo

I had predicted at the start of the season he would win the batting title this year because he was batting ahead of Cabrera. That doesn't look likely now.

You, sir, have the gift of absolute understatement.

[sabretooth]

Originally Posted by Eric Cioe

field is a black hole on both sides of the ball. If they could get league average offense from there and good defense, that would make the team better.

At this point I would be perfectly fine with musical chairs in the corners and at DH, provided that if Inge starts to show cracks in his hitting in July, we try to pull the trigger on getting a hitter. There is plenty of trade bait available that could replace Inge's current production from the OF/DH positions.

[Eric Cioe]

Originally Posted by sabretooth

At this point I would be perfectly fine with musical chairs in the corners and at DH, provided that if Inge starts to show cracks in his hitting in July, we try to pull the trigger on getting a hitter. There is plenty of trade bait available that could replace Inge's current production from the OF/DH positions.

The thing is, they don't even need to go out and get some great slugger to play right for them. They need someone who isn't playing below replacement level. They don't need to trade for anyone. They just need to quit screwing around, cut Magglio, and let Raburn and Thomas get the playing time in right. The offense would be a bit better and the defense would be much better.

[sabretooth]

Originally Posted by Eric Cioe

The thing is, they don't even need to go out and get some great slugger to play right for them. They need someone who isn't playing below replacement level. They don't need to trade for anyone. They just need to quit screwing around, cut Magglio, and let Raburn and Thomas get the playing time in right. The offense would be a bit better and the defense would be much better.

I would agree with this if Inge keeps it up -- my point was if he starts to slide offensively, we should not hesitate to acquire a good bat.