2008 Mark Anderson/TigsTown.com Chat - Monday, 10.20.08 (4:00 pm EST)

[Microline133]

As some of you may have seen in another thread last week, I'm going to try and do another chat similar in fashion to the one we did last year at this time...We have the blessing from MWG to conduct this again (Thank you, sir!), and we'll be having it on Monday, October 20, 2008.

2007 Mark Anderson/TigsTown.com Chat

As with last year's discussion I'll make myself available beginning at 4:00 pm EST to field questions on the Tigers in general, their prospects, the minor league system, and baseball in general. Questions can be submitted to me prior to the chat if you are not available at that time, via either PM or email (mark@tigstown.com), and I'll answer them that day when we get rolling. Otherwise, those of you that can attend, can fire away with your questions once we get going. I'll try to stick around for about two hours on that day.

As Scott has been gracious enough to allow me to reference (aka advertise) TigsTown.com with this chat, I'd like to touch on some of the great features we've got ongoing at the site right now....

As many of you probably know, I recently returned from a trip to the Instructional League in Lakeland, and I compiled a series of articles pertaining to what I saw, talked about, and heard while on the ground there. The first series of articles linked below are my daily box scores and game notes from the three days. The second series of articles is a compilation of my impressions and discussions while there, broken out player-by-player.

Day One Box Score/Notes (FREE)
Day Two Box Score/Notes (FREE)
Day Three Box Score/Notes (FREE)

Live From Fall Ball: Catchers and First Basemen (Premium)
Live From Fall Ball: Infielders (Premium)
Live From Fall Ball: Outfielders (Premium)
Live From Fall Ball: Pitchers (Premium)

My Instructional League Photos










In addition to this series, we'll be starting our annual TigsTools series next week, with a slightly different twist on the matter. In past years we've simply ranked prospects based on the scouting information of any given tool, and discussed things in that context. The change this year will be a statistical component that will be ranked separately where appropriate. On Tuesday's we'll release the scouting based tool ranking, then for those categories where there is a direct statistical measurement of the tool, we'll release a ranking of players based on that analysis each Thursday. We're hopeful that this cross-breeding of the tools lists will allow for some interesting discussion on the raw talent of players and their respective abilities to translate it to production on the field. I'll link the first in the series (Hitting for Average) when they go live next week.

TigsTools - Hitting for Average (Premium Article)
TigsStats - Hitting for Average (Premium Article)

The final big feature that will be rolling out soon, is the Annual Top 50 Prospect Rankings (We actually rank over 200 Tiger prospects). Starting the first week of November we'll be counting down the Top 50, followed by months worth of Prospect Profiles and analysis of the system, right up until spring training. As many of you are aware, TigsTown's rankings are developed based on a unique formula that weighs both statistical performance in areas such as walks, strikeouts, stolen base success, and others, in conjunction with 20-80 scouting scores for the basic tools and attributes of a player. We are confident that our blending of performance and scouting metrics provides the most in depth ranking of Tiger prospects found on the web. At the time of this chat, the rankings will be nearly finalized (sans some last minute tweaks or additions heading up to the release date), and I'll be able to give some insight into how things may fall out when they are released.


I'm truly looking forward to the opportunity to chat with you guys and field your questions! Don't forget, if you won't be around and have questions you want answered, you can send them to me ahead of time and I'll make sure to respond to them on chat day.

Thanks everyone, and a big thanks to Scott for letting me do this again!
Mark

[Los Gatos]

Great stuff - loved the game notes and photos. Thanks for sharing.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Excellent. I have a dentist thing @ 3:20, hopeful he drills fast!

[sportz4life]

awesome stuff Mark..very enjoyable read..what about Robles..I saw he only lasted 3 hitters..

[Microline133]

Just a reminder to those interested, I'll be ready to go about 4:00 tomorrow afternoon for a couple hours of Q&A/chatting. Looking forward to it!

[Microline133]

About an hour to show time...I'm going to try and be ready to go right at 4:00 but I'm waiting on a couple call-backs from coaches/scouts, so if one of them calls right then I've got to take it....

If people want, feel free to start submitting questions at any time, and I'll try hit them when I start around 4:00....

[Buddha]

Questions:

1) Do any of the pitchers drafted last year have a chance to start the season with the major league team? Perry? Sattherwaite?

2) Who in last year's draft class, in your opinion, has the best stuff and the best chance to be a contributor in the majors?

2) Is Willis done?

[sbcaptain2]

Rank the big four (Perry, Satterwhite, Green, and Jacobson).

Do you think Moscoso could make an impact on the Tigers bullpen at some point in 2009?

What do you think of Trevor Feeney? When I saw him pitch this summer I was very impressed with his pitchability.

[TonyJM]

Mark,

None of these guys appear to be top prospects at this point, but I wanted to get your thoughts on some of the Tigers recent high school pitching draft picks.

-Jade Tade posted an impressive ERA for an 18 year old in rookie ball.

-Brandon Hamilton and Matt Hoffman both got roughed up at West Michigan, but rebounded well in rookie ball.

-Aaron Fuhrman is fairly small and given up a fair amount of runs the past two seasons - but has also been victimized by a particularly high BABIP and maintained a pretty impressive K/9 rate.

What are the long term projections for these guys?


Tony

[Hongbit]

What is the latest on Jordan Tata? Any additional details on his issues from last season.

[Jack Crow]

What quality of a prospect is Jonathan Kibler?

[sinister porpoise]

Is Ryan Strieby going to be an impact hitter?
Prognosis for Luke French?

[sagnam]

Mark,

Just curious about my AAT, Lester Oliveros. He seemed to handle the transition to the States pretty well while in the New York-Penn League posting some pretty impressive numbers (20.2 IP, 6 BB, 34 K, 1.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), but didn't fare so well in Lakeland (10.2 IP, 9 BB, 3 K, 4.22 ERA, 1.97 WHIP).

Any info on why he struggled so bad in high-A? Can we simply attribute those struggles to his youth in a league of more mature hitters? Was he pressing? Tighter strike zone?

After his first short season, has the scouting report changed much? Do you think he will start next season in WM or Lakeland? Where do you rank him relative to the other relievers in the system?

Thanks.

[CaliforniaDreaming]

Which corner outfield prospect should I really have any hopes for for the near future? Are Joyce or Clevlen or Thomas going to develop into legitimate, full-time outfielders or should I be waiting for someone else? Is Guillen's move to left field simply desperation to find someplace to put him or is it an admission that we really don't have anyone who is worthy of winning that outfield spot?

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by Buddha

Questions:

1) Do any of the pitchers drafted last year have a chance to start the season with the major league team? Perry? Sattherwaite?

2) Who in last year's draft class, in your opinion, has the best stuff and the best chance to be a contributor in the majors?

2) Is Willis done?

1 - I don't see any of last year's draft class starting the year in Detroit. I won't be shocked at all if a couple get some time in Detroit, just not from the get go. If anyone does it, I'm guessing either Perry or Jacobson.

2 - Best pure stuff in last year's class, is a toss-up between Perry and Satterwhite. Jacobson isn't far behind. Best chance to contribute in the Majors I'd say is a tie between Perry and Jacobson. Satterwhite's command just has so far to go in my eyes.

3 - I don't think Willis is done, but I don't think we can expect him to compete at much more than a 4/5 level from here on out; which still has value.

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by sbcaptain2

Rank the big four (Perry, Satterwhite, Green, and Jacobson).

Do you think Moscoso could make an impact on the Tigers bullpen at some point in 2009?

What do you think of Trevor Feeney? When I saw him pitch this summer I was very impressed with his pitchability.

1 - Perry, Jacobson, Satterwhite, Green, in that order.

2 - Moscoso's a guy that I just don't have a warm, fuzzy on. His flyball tendancies and solid but unspectacular stuff just don't go over well in my mind. He's more of a long man for me, which carries value, possibly as soon as 2009, but I do think there are other pitchers that will get a chance before him.

3 - Feeney's four pitch mix is nice, but I haven't heard good things about him maintaining his velocity while piling up innings; and he doesn't have that true out pitch you like to see in a high leverage guy, making him more of a 2-3 inning guy in the middle of your pen. I'd be concerned that over the course of the year, you'd be at risk of having him working with four solid-average pitches, instead of two average to a tick above, and two solid-average....which is dangerous.

[Edman85]

What are some specific things you look for in a pitcher's mechanics?

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by TonyJM

Mark,

None of these guys appear to be top prospects at this point, but I wanted to get your thoughts on some of the Tigers recent high school pitching draft picks.

-Jade Tade posted an impressive ERA for an 18 year old in rookie ball.

-Brandon Hamilton and Matt Hoffman both got roughed up at West Michigan, but rebounded well in rookie ball.

-Aaron Fuhrman is fairly small and given up a fair amount of runs the past two seasons - but has also been victimized by a particularly high BABIP and maintained a pretty impressive K/9 rate.

What are the long term projections for these guys?


Tony

1 - Todd's an intersting guy, but I'm not a fan of the body; it's a bit soft. He works hard on the mound, but he's got some work to do on cleaning up his mechanics for consistency, and I'm not sure there's a ton of projection here. If he gets in better shape, that projection could change some. The jury is still out in a major way.

2 - Hamilton still has reliever written all over him. Honestly, I'd like to them move him there right now; and just let him develop in that role. The fastball is electric, but he's got to keep it down and let the explosiveness do the work instead of trying to blow it by people. Hoffman's similar to Todd in terms of body and stuff. His command has to come around, or he's going to continue to struggle against even marginally more advanced hitters.

3 - Fuhrman's a tough guy to read. Reports are typically pretty good about his raw stuff, despite the small frame, but he can't quite get the results. He's generally pretty hittable, and works too much in the middle of the zone. If he can get to the corners and knees with more regularity, his numbers will improve dramatically, but that's not going to be an easy feat.

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by Hongbit

What is the latest on Jordan Tata? Any additional details on his issues from last season.

2009 is a critical season for Tata; I don't think there is any doubting that. He's got to both pitch like he's healthy, and get over any health concerns in his own head. If he can do that, he's still got enough stuff (though not nearly what he had two or three years ago) to be of help in relief. His prospect window is closing fast, and without a strong spring showing, he may not be with the organization.

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by Jack Crow

What quality of a prospect is Jonathan Kibler?

Kibler's a low-C level guy for me. He's got solid stuff across the board, with a much improved curveball over what he showed at Michigan State. His velocity isn't what he showed in the summer of 2007, but he's got enough to be effective. He's not a guy that's going to fly through the system, but he's a better prospect than Duane Below was at this time last year; with a likelihood of more staying power.

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by sinister porpoise

Is Ryan Strieby going to be an impact hitter?
Prognosis for Luke French?

1 - Impact hitter? Probably not. He's got real power, there is zero doubt about that, and it really showed in games in the second half. There are still some holes in the swing, and a tendancy to chase breaking balls, which will have to be corrected to avoid getting carved up in Erie or Toledo. He's got a chance to slug his way to the big leagues, but it won't be easy given both the road blocks in Detroit, and his overall offensive skill set.

2 - French is a guy I've always been partial to. He's never going to blow you away with stuff, but he gets outs at pretty good rates, keeps his team in games, and has enough projection left in a big frame that you can still think there is more to come. We have to remember he was only 22 for his first exposure to Double-A this past season; which is a significant positive in his favor. I see a return trip to Erie in 2009, with a slim shot at starting the year in Toledo. He's more an innings eater type in the long run, but that has value both to the Tigers and in trade.

[Edman85]

Where would Casey Fien rank? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Other?

[DaYooperASBDT]

Mark, do you think Caspar Wells has become a serious OF prospect now?

[zimm]

does Rick Knapp's hiring signal an organization shift in philosophy? something that trickles down all the way to say, the scout level?

sometimes i feel like they just sent scouts to the field with one directive-find power arms!!!

are there scouts in place to properly assess a broader skillset?

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by sagnam

Mark,

Just curious about my AAT, Lester Oliveros. He seemed to handle the transition to the States pretty well while in the New York-Penn League posting some pretty impressive numbers (20.2 IP, 6 BB, 34 K, 1.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), but didn't fare so well in Lakeland (10.2 IP, 9 BB, 3 K, 4.22 ERA, 1.97 WHIP).

Any info on why he struggled so bad in high-A? Can we simply attribute those struggles to his youth in a league of more mature hitters? Was he pressing? Tighter strike zone?

After his first short season, has the scouting report changed much? Do you think he will start next season in WM or Lakeland? Where do you rank him relative to the other relievers in the system?

Thanks.

The report really hasn't changed much at all on Oliveros. I loved him when I saw him at Instructs....he really stood out with his demeanor on the mound, and the way he attacked hitters with his stuff. His fastball was hard and down, with some late life, and his breaking ball was sharp and around the zone with regularity. He's got a thick lower half and he uses it well. In discussions I've had, the struggles in Lakeland were likely at least in part due to him pressing after the promotion, and some fatigue during his first season stateside. I wouldn't be too worried about those struggles long term. He'll be in the mix for both West Michigan and Lakeland in 2009, but I see him as a shade more likely for West Michigan. The rankings aren't finalized yet, but I've currently got him fifth among relievers.

[redshark63]

Mark,

Anything to read into the latest hiring of the new Asian scouting director/coordinator?

Any thoughts on whom in the organization may become minor league managers?

Who do you think may end up the Oneonta mgr?

[Buddha]

Are you still bullish on Jeff Larish's big league future?

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaDreaming

Which corner outfield prospect should I really have any hopes for for the near future? Are Joyce or Clevlen or Thomas going to develop into legitimate, full-time outfielders or should I be waiting for someone else? Is Guillen's move to left field simply desperation to find someplace to put him or is it an admission that we really don't have anyone who is worthy of winning that outfield spot?

Of the three listed, Joyce is the most likely to develop into a solid regular outfielder. Clevlen's at a crossroads heading into 2009, being out of options and still a very unproven commodity. I love his power and defense, but still fear he's more fourth outfielder on a contending club than anything. Thomas is another fourth outfielder in my eyes, though he could probably play center full time on some second tier clubs. Joyce's skill set is well rounded and I'd be most inclined to hold out hope for further development from him.

As for Guillen's move, I think it's simply a desparate attempt to find somewhere to put him.

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by Edman85

What are some specific things you look for in a pitcher's mechanics?

The big three for me are balance, drive, and arm action. I want to see balance throughout the delivery, from the first motion to the peak of the balance point, down to the landing of the stride foot. Balance throughout this process is huge for both the consistency of pitch quality, and the ability to throw strikes. The drive off the back leg is something I look for, though I put the other two factors a ways ahead of it. Good drive indicates to me their trying to utilize the large muscles of their body to help generate velocity, rather than just slinging it. Lastly, arm action, I want something that looks long and loose, not something that is tight with added movements and excess stress throughout the process; good extension off the back side, a clean action coming through, and a nice long follow through.

[Edman85]

I'll just throw some names out there to see if any stand out:

Victor Larez
Brayan Villareal
Cody Satterwhite
Mauricio Robles
Zach Simons
Luis Sanz (the pitcher)

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by Edman85

Where would Casey Fien rank? Top 10? Top 20? Top 30? Other?

As of now -- and I'll continue to throw this disclaimer out until the Top 50 is actually released -- I've got Fien in the Top 20.

[Chitownsizzle]

Mark,

Do you know of any chatter about the rash of injuries the past few years? It seems like all the shortstops have been hurt along with the tommy johns: Crosby, McBride, Furbush, etc.

Also, your personal take on Crosby.

[zimm]

Originally Posted by Microline133

Thomas is another fourth outfielder in my eyes, though he could probably play center full time on some second tier clubs.

my "aspirational" comp for Clete has been another Leyland favorite, R.J. Reynolds. sound fair? it seems to line up with what you just mentioned i.e. CF skillset, quality 4th Of, passable starter on a bad team. imo, probably not a long career window.

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by DaYooperASBDT

Mark, do you think Caspar Wells has become a serious OF prospect now?

The power, defense, and arm are certainly for real, but I'm still a skeptic of the strike zone judgement and contact ability. I think he's light years ahead of his prospect status at any point in his career, and I've been intrigued by him since his GCL days. I think he needs to show that he can duplicate this before I bark about him too loudly.

[zimm]

Originally Posted by Microline133

The big three for me are balance, drive, and arm action. I want to see balance throughout the delivery, from the first motion to the peak of the balance point, down to the landing of the stride foot. Balance throughout this process is huge for both the consistency of pitch quality, and the ability to throw strikes. The drive off the back leg is something I look for, though I put the other two factors a ways ahead of it. Good drive indicates to me their trying to utilize the large muscles of their body to help generate velocity, rather than just slinging it. Lastly, arm action, I want something that looks long and loose, not something that is tight with added movements and excess stress throughout the process; good extension off the back side, a clean action coming through, and a nice long follow through.

did you forget "finishes in good fielding position"?

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by zimm

does Rick Knapp's hiring signal an organization shift in philosophy? something that trickles down all the way to say, the scout level?

sometimes i feel like they just sent scouts to the field with one directive-find power arms!!!

are there scouts in place to properly assess a broader skillset?

1 - I think a shift in organizational philosophy may be a bit of a reach, but I think it is an acknowledgement by the organization that they need to have a more focused effort on commanding pitchers and working ahead in counts where these power guys can utilize their best stuff aggressively.

2 - In some respects they have. You can't teach arm strength, you simply can't.

3 - Yes, they are. All of these guys are trained to scout players in totality, the organizational ranking of such players and subsequent selection is more a function of how they weight the scouting reports they receive from the field.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Mark, could we see Mr. Fien closing any ballgames for the Tigers this season?

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by redshark63

Mark,

Anything to read into the latest hiring of the new Asian scouting director/coordinator?

Any thoughts on whom in the organization may become minor league managers?

Who do you think may end up the Oneonta mgr?

1 - I think we'll see more activity, though I wouldn't read too much into it quite yet. They have to work to make their in-roads there, and Tang is a good start.

2 - There's a few guys I can see taking on a role like that, including someone like Devin Thomas, Tyler Weber, Bryan Pounds, and a few others, though I think it may be a ways off for all three.

3 - I really have no idea on the Oneonta manager, and I can't even begin to speculate accurately.

[Microline133]

Originally Posted by Buddha

Are you still bullish on Jeff Larish's big league future?

Certainly not as bullish as I have been in the past, but I do still think he can be a contributing player for an extended stretch at the big league level. The patience and power are just very tough to ignore. Do I think he's an All-Star; certainly not. But I do believe he can contribute on any team.

[TonyJM]

Mark,

You seemed pretty skeptical of mlb.com's assessment of Will Rhymes. Where do you seem in the long-term?


-Tony