Way Too Early: Final 53

[Stormin' Norman]

Been trying to figure out who I want to make the Lions final 53. I think I like this breakdown:

QB - 2 (Stafford, Hill)
HB - 3 (Best, Leshoure, Smith)
WR- 5 (CJ, Young, Burleson, Broyles*, Edwards*)
TE - 3 (Pettigrew, Scheffler, Heller)
OT - 5 (Bachus, Cherilus, Reiff*, Hillard, Fox)
OG - 2 (Sims, Peterman)
C - 2 (Raiola, Gandy)
DT - 4 (Suh, Williams, Hill, Fairley)
DE - 6 (Avril, KVB, Young, Jackson, Brown, Lewis*)
OLB 4 (Durant, Levy, Houge, Lewis*)
MLB 3 (Tulloch, Palmer, Tahir*)
CB - 6 (Houston, Berry, Lacey, Bentley*, Greenwood*, Smith)
S - 4 (Delmas, Spivey, Coleman, Silva)
K - 1 (Hanson)
P - 1 (Donahue)
LS - 1 (Mulbach)

Practice Squad: CB Jonte Green*, OT Johnny Culbreath, QB Kellen Moore*, DB Alonzo Lawrence*, RB Joique Bell, FB Bryant James*

Notable Releases (players that can make a roster elsewhere): Andre Fluellen DT/DE, John Wendling S/ST

I would love to find a player who can do more than long snapping. I hate dedicating a roster spot on that position. If Bryant James was smart, he would have dedicated himself to that craft.

(* indicates rookie)

[sagnam]

I think Fluellen makes the team and one of the offensive tackles won't. I also think Stovall makes the team and one of your defensive ends doesn't.

[KleShreen]

Considering the injury history of all three RB's, I have to think the Lions would open the season with four on the active roster. I'd like to see Bell on the active roster and another RB to replace him on the practice squad.

[Stormin' Norman]

I like what Stovall can bring to special teams, but I hope one of our rookie DBs can fill that role.

If Everette Brown is good enough to make the roster, we are in great shape. In that case, I think we do bring 6 DEs.

[84 Lives!!!]

Norman, your list only adds to 52. I’m going to take a stab, and add some comments as to my reasoning (also, I’m using your format as much as possible):

QB – (2): Stafford, Hill. – Nothing of note here, unless the team feels they’d lose Moore by trying to send him to the Practice Squad (PS)… I think they like him enough that they won’t want to risk that happening… but, we’ll see…

HB – (4): Best, Leshoure, Smith, Bryant. – I don’t think the Lions start the year with any less than four running backs. In my mind, the last spot will come down to Bell or Bryant. I’m going to opt for Bryant for a couple of reasons: (1) I think he’ll become a Special Teams Monster. This will allow us to release someone like Ashlee Palmer, and keep Travis Lewis instead and a fringe player at a different position (such as, possibly, Kellen Moore) that isn’t a ST player, but needs to be kept for the future or for depth at another critical position (Safety, CB, QB, etc…?) (2) Linehan might toss in a few traditional FB plays, just to throw some changeups at defenses. (3) Bell might make it to the PS. He’s pretty much been a PS guy so far in his career anyways. I’m thinking it might be harder to get Bryant there – IF – a team is looking for a traditional FB and takes a liking to him… (4) This one might push Bryant to the PS instead of Bell: whether he can catch the ball or not. If he can’t, he can’t be an H-Back for us and may lose this spot to Bell (if he can catch the ball). If he can, it might lock him into the 4th RB spot, IMO. I think Bryant makes it here for the 1st three reasons. If there’s an injury, Bell can be pulled from the PS as the 3rd RB.

WR – (5): CJ, Young, Burleson, Broyles*, Logan. – The first 4 are givens. I’m not certain who they’ll go with as #5. It depends on what they are looking for: another returner so it doesn’t all fall on Titus Young and they can release Logan, or a backup starter at receiver in case we have an injury. I think Logan doesn’t offer enough at WR to stick long-term (they’re giving him RB plays to try and make him a multi-purpose returner, #4 RB, #6 WR?). If Edwards can do both, he might have an in. However, I’m going to go with Logan lasting at least 1 more year here, and Edwards sent to the PS.

TE – (3): Pettigrew, Scheffler, Heller. – Status quo.

OT – (4): Bachus, Cherilus, Reiff*, Hilliard/Fox? – I think somebody is going to lose here. Either Hilliard to youth and upside, or Fox due to an inability to stay healthy. But I don’t know which trigger to pull. I would lean towards cutting Hilliard in favor of Fox, but the team may need the veteran ability/ position flexibility/ health of Hilliard. If I had to make a tough call, Fox makes the team and Hilliard doesn’t. It’s just too hard to cut Fox, at this point… One other issue though: In a group of “bubble guys” trying to make the 53: (including Kellen Moore; James Bryant/ Joique Bell & Keiland Williams; Stefan Logan/ Stephfon Green/ Patrick Edwards; Hilliard/ Fox/ Culbreath; Everette Brown; Andre Fluellen; Palmer/ Whitehead/ Lewis; etc…), you could easily pick amongst Culbreath, Brown, or Lawrence, and replace them with the loser of the Hilliard/ Fox battle, if the team wants to go that way.

OG – (3): Sims, Peterman, Culbreath. – I put Culbreath here for the following reasons: (1) supposedly he is an uber-athletic big guy, from a small college, just like Sammie Lee Hill. And I think he is going to show serious strides forward in Training Camp this year. He’s my dark-horse candidate to unexpectedly grab a spot on the 53 (at face value, it looks like the #’s are against him…). What I would like to see is Culbreath getting time in Training Camp at the right guard position. I think he’d be perfect to take over from Peterman eventually; and maybe sooner rather than later. If he could at least have the flexibility to play both right tackle and right guard this year though, it would significantly increase his value to the team as a backup. This would also improve the team’s ability to eliminate one tackle spot (either Hilliard or Fox) and use that spot elsewhere. PS: I don’t see any of the UDFA’s having a chance at gaining an O-Line spot, at any position, on the 53. Maybe 2 or 3 on the practice squad…?

C – (2): Raiola, Gandy. – Status quo. But can Gerberry take a step up this year and unseat Gandy? Gandy also plays Guard though… Still, I wonder…

DT – (4): Suh, Williams, Hill, Fairley. – No surprises here. I also think Fluellen is at the end of his Lions “useful life”. Maybe Mayhew can get a 7th rounder for him?

DE – (6): Avril, KVB, Young, Jackson, Brown, Lewis*. – I love this unit. And all 6 guys on this list here.

OLB – (4): Durant, Levy, Hogue, Tahir*. – I think Hogue has grown into a Sam, and Tahir sounds like the perfect Will prospect. Hogue will become the “#4 LB’er” this season, with Travis Lewis (see below) and Tahir also getting some play.

MLB – (2): Tulloch, Lewis*. – The reasons I put Travis Lewis here, and cut Ashlee Palmer, are: (1) Lewis is supposedly an ace at learning the playbook, and is becoming quite the “field general” in off-season practices. I see Lewis as having much more significant upside than Palmer, specifically at the Mike. (2) He’s not a long-distance speed guy, and may have trouble in pass-coverage. Both of these two issues tell me he’s a Mike, not a Will. The reason I dropped Palmer: He’s a special teams ace, and I don’t think he is noted for having much upside as a LB’er. I might be wrong; but I believe he will be usurped as a backup LB’er by Tahir, Lewis, AND Hogue, and be replaceable on Special Teams by both Lewis’s, the two other LB’ers, and by Everett Brown and James Bryant. We may have a slight drop in ST experience, but I think the team will opt for the much higher upsides of all these other players rather than holding onto the more limited Palmer. Unless he flashes some serious improvement in Preseason…, or the team opts for 7 LB’ers (they’ll lose any of the other 3 backups if they try to slip them to the PS…) and not losing Palmer’s experience for the time being. I guess that could happen, but what other position loses?

CB – (6): Houston, Berry, Lacey, Bentley*, Greenwood*, Smith. – The first 3 are easily “in”. And between Bentley, Greenwood, Smith, and Green, only Green gets pushed to the PS. If Lawrence is capable of playing both CB and Safety (a very tall order), and Alphonso gets traded (that was an earlier rumor), I don’t think Green makes the 53. Again, I think it puts the loser of the Hilliard/ Fox battle back on the 53.

S – (5): Delmas, Spievey, Coleman, Silva, Lawrence. – The reason I have a 5th Safety here, is that I think the team will be reluctant to lose the upside of Lawrence; and I’m going to guess that he won’t make it to the PS. He could easily go though, if the team prefers to hold onto both Hilliard and Fox. Also: Coleman is in no danger… but could Silva be usurped by Lawrence? I’m not really certain what the upside is of each, and it could be a lot less than what I’m guessing at. But I’m going to say that the team views Coleman and Silva as their top-2 “must-have” backup safeties; and that Lawrence will be flexible enough to be both a “press-corner” and CF-type safety. If this blurb feels a bit scatter-shot, well, that’s probably because that’s what our safety position/ depth feels like too.

K – (1): Hanson. Status Quo
P – (1): Donahue. Status Quo
LS – (1): Mulbach. Status Quo

Practice Squad: CB Jonte Green*, QB Kellen Moore*, RB Joique Bell, WR Patrick Edwards*, 1 or 2 UDFA O-Lineman.

Notable Releases: Andre Fluellen DT/DE, John Wendling S/ST, Ashlee Palmer LB/ST.

I definitely agree with Norman on the following: “I would love to find a player who can do more than long snapping. I hate dedicating a roster spot on that position.” Ditto on James Bryant.

(* indicates rookie)

[Stormin' Norman]

I would love for Culbreath to make the team, the same with Lawrence. If either of those players are good enough to stick on the final 53, they could end up being real gems. I also think it is very possible Fox misses the roster with him having to sit out again with knee issues.

With the spot I left out, I could see either Fluellen or Bell taking it. I like Bell more than Williams, but the versatility offered by Fluellen is very nice.

I am also love that we are experimenting more with the line. Utilizing that 4 DT front would be fantastic in certain situations.

[Nastradamus]

I'm in the camp that wants Bell on the roster. We have fragile RBs, we can't roll with just 4, plus Leshoure is out 2 games, so we'll need a short term replacement at the least.

I think Fluellen makes it.

Hopefully we sign a veteran S like Atogwe or Grant.

[Stormin' Norman]

Hopefully our young guys show enough for us to not need to do so. Signing Atogwe or Grant is worst case.

[Nastradamus]

Man i sure don't think so. Both played quite well last year. With the way our secondary performed last year, I can't fathom veteran help being worst case scenario. Atogwe struggles vs. the run, but has nice range in pass coverage. Grant consistently has very nice metrics and brings some vet leadership. Coleman sucks and I'm not depending on Silva or Spievey.

[Stormin' Norman]

I wouldn't mind replacing Coleman with another veteran, but it is better for our team to be comfortable depending on Silva or Spievey.

[84 Lives!!!]

On the Safety side, I'd rather NOT sign a FA, at least for now, until we can evaluate what the young guys can contribute.

Near the middle-end of Training Camp, if Schwartz sees a serious need at the position, enough that it hurts our playoff-run chances, then go for it. But if Spievey/ Silva/ Lawrence show enough upside/ ability, then let's at least give them a chance.

[KleShreen]

I believe Joique Bell is more than capable of playing a fullback role if that's what it comes down to. He's 5'11" 220 and would be a nightmare for an LB to cover out in the flat. He would obviously need to practice blocking, but he's athletic enough to do it, IMO. He's a decent pass catcher. In college he averaged 20 catches a season at 250 yards a year.

Am I the only one who would prefer to have Ben Graham back as punter rather than Ryan Donahue? Obviously Donahue is much younger, but I was pretty impressed with Graham at the end of last season.

[Stormin' Norman]

Bell absolutely dominated a preseason game last year. I believe he was playing in New Orleans against Oakland. If he shows enough to earn a roster spot, I would be excited.

The key is that we want the back end of the roster full of young players who are skilled enough to make this roster because that means they will have to beat some quality veterans to do so. We want more Silvas and Lawrences and Joique Bells and fewer Chris Harris and Nathan Vashers.

[KleShreen]

Bell absolutely dominated a preseason game last year. I believe he was playing in New Orleans against Oakland. If he shows enough to earn a roster spot, I would be excited.

The key is that we want the back end of the roster full of young players who are skilled enough to make this roster because that means they will have to beat some quality veterans to do so. We want more Silvas and Lawrences and Joique Bells and fewer Chris Harris and Nathan Vashers.

Joique Bell 60-yard reception Vs Raiders - YouTube

[84 Lives!!!]

I’m going to make a few tweaks to my projected 53 based on the following:

1) I noticed I over-weighted the defense by 27-23, and the Lions never do that. So I need to balance my roster to 25-25-3, Offense-Defense-Special Teams.
2) Mikel Leshoure is suspended the first 2 games, so I am going to take advantage of that as I will explain. Also, I am going to assume that Fairley ends up in the same situation, so I am going to use that as well in my roster management.

So here are the basic changes: I am adding a RB and OT position, and removing a DE and Safety position. So, by position: QB (2), RB (5), WR (5), TE (3), OT (5), OG (3), C (2), (that equals 25 on Offense); DE (5), DT (4), LB (6), CB (6), S (4), (25 on Defense); and then 1, 1 and 1 (still hate having a LS-only position…!!!).

However, with Leshoure suspended at the start of the season, I think Kellen Moore will initially make the 53, and then be waived/ signed to Practice Squad in week 3. And shifting an additional position to RB means that Bell & Bryant will both make the 53-man squad. Bell as the #4 RB behind Best/ Leshoure/ Smith, and Bryant as a ST’s monster, and occasional FB/ H-Back.

Adding the 5th OT will allow both Hilliard & Fox to make the team; although there is still pressure to teach Culbreath how to play OG (and hopefully he plays it WELL!!!) in order to keep him on the 53… I don’t think the team will want to lose any O-Line depth this year, so it’s important to keep Hilliard’s experience and versatility, as well as Fox’s & Culbreath’s upside… The switch of positions from Defense to Offense allows us to do just that…

On Defense: When Fairley gets his 2-4 game suspension, it will be a bit trickier. It will leave us with only (3) DT’s, which I don’t think the coaching staff will go for… And it will also be difficult even with all (4) active, in the sense that, as much as the coaching staff loves to rotate and depend on its interior D-Line, it might not make it easy to lose Andre Fluellen’s backup/ flexibility capabilities. I don’t see how the staff will want to lose any of Avril/ Young/ KVB/ Jackson/ or Lewis either, however. So how many/ who to carry on the D-Line is going to be tricky…

I guess my solution is if it’s (2) games, then get by with having Lawrence Jackson take a few snaps at DT (on a limited, emergency basis). If it’s (4) games, then we might hold onto Fluellen on the original 53, and adjust in week 5 when Fairley comes back.

If it’s only (2) weeks, I could see the staff POSSIBLY going with Jackson as the emergency #4 DT, and keeping either Everett Brown or the loser of the Silva/ Lawrence battle… This is what I would prefer (rather than holding onto Fluellen), and who I see as the losers of the 2-man shift from Defense to Offense. I don’t know who the odd man out is, amongst Brown, Silva, and Lawrence (1 of the safeties will make the 53, and 1 of the other 2 might hold a spot on the 53 until Fairley gets back and then get sent to the PS…)?

I’m too tired to think about it now though, and will instead, open up the floor…

[sagnam]

I don't think there is any chance of Kellen Moore making the team. I have my doubts that Fox makes the team too, he just can't stay healthy.

I think they like to rotate the DL so I think they will carry 5 DEs and 5 DTs at the expense of the LBs.

[Stormin' Norman]

Joique Bell 60-yard reception Vs Raiders - YouTube

There you go. His stat sheet for that game was also: 6 carries, 50 yards 1 TD, 2 rec 93 yards. No player stood out more to me last preseason.

I noticed I over-weighted the defense by 27-23, and the Lions never do that.

I think the balance here is overstated. If we decide to go with two QBs, I don't think Schwartz is going to see it necessary to add an OT to make up for it. I think we will go with the 53 players that can best help us win. That places a higher emphasis on DE and CB rotation.

I do think a running back and Fluellen will make the initial 53 with Leshoure and Fairley on the suspended list .

[84 Lives!!!]

I guess that tells us what the team thinks of Lawrence's potential... scratch him off the list...