Stafford season in perspective

**Johnny Mac** · 12-24-2011, 11:19 PM

NFL Passing Record Yards
1 Marino 5084 1984
2 Brees 5069 2008
3 Brady 4897 2011 (active)
4 Warner 4830 2001
5 Brady 4806 2007
6 Fouts 4802 1981
7 Brees 4780 2011 (active)
8 Schaub 4770 2009
9 Marino 4746 1986
10 Culpepper 4717 2004
11 Fouts 4715 1980
12 Rivers 4710 2010
13 Manning 4700 2010
14 Moon 4690 1991
15 Moon 4689 1990
16 Gannon 4689 2002
17 Brees 4620 2010
18 Lomax 4614 1984
19 Green 4591 2004
20 E Manning 4587 2011 (active)
21 Warner 4583 2008
22 Manning 4557 2004
23 Bledsoe 4555 1994
24 Cutler 4526 2008
25 Stafford 4518 2011 (active)

Stafford projects to end up at 4819 (if he plays the whole game next week and throws an average day). That would put him 7th on the all time passing list (assuming all the active guys ahead of him stay ahead of him) edit* Aaron Rodgers still plays 2 more games (if he plays) and he could pass Stafford as well.

TD passes in a season
1 Brady 50 2007
2 Manning 49 2004
3 Marino 48 1984
4 Marino 44 1986
5 Warner 41 1999
6 Rodgers 40 2011 (active)
7 Culpepper 39 2004
8 Favre 39 1996
9 Favre 38 1995
10 Brees 37 2011 (active)
11 Stafford 36 2011 (Active, tied with multiple people including Brady this year)

Stafford could easily climb into the top 10 or tied for 10th if he plays next week.

I know passing records seem to continuously be getting broke, but the fact he could be having one of the 10 best seasons in terms of passing yards and passing TDs is something special.

**Johnny Mac** · 12-24-2011, 11:27 PM

BTW, I am not in anyway saying he should play the whole game next week

**Yoda** · 12-25-2011, 12:09 AM

NFL Rankings

QB Rating: 6th
Comp: 2nd
Pct: 5th
Yds: 4th
TD: 3rd(t)
40+: 2nd

**Yoda** · 12-25-2011, 12:10 AM

I can't help but wonder what his numbers would be like if his team didn't kill so many drives by dumb penalties.

**Johnny Mac** · 12-25-2011, 12:15 AM

Originally Posted by Yoda

I can't help but wonder what his numbers would be like if his team didn't kill so many drives by dumb penalties.

Or if he didn't have a three week stretch where he had a broken bone on his throwing hand and was passing with gloves on

**drownwithyou** · 12-25-2011, 12:49 AM

Nice thread JMac! Cool to see, I had no idea about this stuff. It is nice to have a young QB to be excited about (well actually excited with reason, I drink the Kool Aid every year so sadly I'm usually always excited).

**Truth** · 12-25-2011, 01:01 AM

Originally Posted by Johnny Mac

Or if he didn't have a three week stretch where he had a broken bone on his throwing hand and was passing with gloves on

Exactly. I still can't believe that the Detroit Lions have a QB putting up these kinds of numbers. And he's young. This is like a dream, one I hope lasts as long as the nightmares of so many years.

**Johnny Mac** · 12-25-2011, 01:51 AM

183 yards next week and he will have thrown for more yards than Peyton Manning has ever done

**DTroppens** · 12-25-2011, 02:30 AM

I think it's hard to compare stats for QBs today with historical numbers because the league is so much more a passing league for every team vs. 20 or 30 years ago, even from 10 years ago. Passing tendencies are higher than ever before.

But the fact he compares so favorable among his peers as what is essentially a second-year QB is pretty darn good.

**Big Frame** · 12-25-2011, 08:01 AM

I wounder how much better Stafford's number's would be if he was in NYC

**number20** · 12-25-2011, 08:42 AM

He's going to get better

**nd1377** · 12-25-2011, 08:42 AM

Originally Posted by Big Frame

I wounder how much better Stafford's number's would be if he was in NYC

I love watching the Jets and Sanchize lose.

**Johnny Mac** · 12-25-2011, 10:38 AM

Originally Posted by DTroppens

I think it's hard to compare stats for QBs today with historical numbers because the league is so much more a passing league for every team vs. 20 or 30 years ago, even from 10 years ago. Passing tendencies are higher than ever before.

But the fact he compares so favorable among his peers as what is essentially a second-year QB is pretty darn good.

Well the only other QBs to throw for 4500 yards at the age of 23 or younger were Marino and Bledsoe, both happening over 15 years ago.

**DTroppens** · 12-25-2011, 10:51 AM

Originally Posted by Johnny Mac

Well the only other QBs to throw for 4500 yards at the age of 23 or younger were Marino and Bledsoe, both happening over 15 years ago.

Not trying to discredit Stafford at all, but there also have been very few QBs that have been asked to throw it as much as he has at his age with the receiver weapons he has. And while not having a running game is a pretty serious downfall, in some ways it works to his advantage. Because the run game is so bad and the weapons with the passing game are so potent, it makes sense to throw it an ungodly number of times. Of course, if Stafford stunk the joint as well, he wouldn't have those stats. They mean something, but I think what he has done at 23 vs. the rest of the QBs have done this season means a little more - that's all I'm saying.

**DTroppens** · 12-25-2011, 11:07 AM

If trends continue the way they are, the 5,000-yard passing season with 40 TDs is going to be pretty typical - kind of like how 50+ home runs became normal in baseball during the steroid era.

**PuNk42AE** · 12-25-2011, 11:12 AM

Does anyone have the Pass/Rush numbers this season for the Lions?

**Johnny Mac** · 12-25-2011, 11:13 AM

6 of the top 15 passing seasons were from 1980-1991. And 4 of the top 9 passing td seasons are pre 1996. So while I see your point, I dont think its AS crazy of a passing league now as others might think. From 1980-1995 there seemed to be a lot of records in that time as well. Then there is a gap from like 1995 to about 2002 or so where basically no one is on the list. I think the down turn before the recent upturn makes it seem a little more dramatic than it is.

**Vonlenska** · 12-25-2011, 11:44 AM

Originally Posted by PuNk42AE

Does anyone have the Pass/Rush numbers this season for the Lions?

The ratio? Pretty easy to figure out, just go to espn and check out the stats.

They've ran it 341 times. Passed it 607. They pass the ball 1.78 times for every run.

**T&P_Fan** · 12-25-2011, 11:58 AM

Pretty incredible when all the stats are put on paper like this. After looking through all the past stats I am going to side with JMac, and furthermore I don't think 40 TDs/5,000 pass yards will become typical. Only 2 or 3 QBS have a legit shot at 40 TDs this year, and only one can reach the 5,000 passing yards.

Stafford is a legit top 5 QB right now.

**Mr. Bigglesworth** · 12-25-2011, 07:27 PM

Whatever happened to Stormin' Norman?

He must be loving life.

**Johnny Mac** · 01-01-2012, 02:17 PM

UPDATE THROUGH CALVIN JOHNSON TD IN 2ND QUARTER
1 Marino 5084 1984
2 Brees 5069 2008
3 Brady 4897 2011 (active)
4 Warner 4830 2001
5 Brady 4806 2007
6 Fouts 4802 1981
7 Brees 4780 2011 (active)
8 Schaub 4770 2009
9 Marino 4746 1986
10 Culpepper 4717 2004
11 Fouts 4715 1980
12 Rivers 4710 2010
13 Manning 4700 2010
14 Moon 4690 1991
15 Moon 4689 1990
16 Gannon 4689 2002
17 Stafford 4644 2011 (active)

*Eli could still pass him later today

TD passes in a season
1 Brady 50 2007
2 Manning 49 2004
3 Marino 48 1984
4 Marino 44 1986
5 Brees 42 2011 (active)
6 Warner 41 1999
7 Rodgers 40 2011 (active)
8 Culpepper 39 2004
9 Favre 39 1996
10 Stafford 38 2011

*Brady is only one behind Stafford

**lordstanley** · 01-01-2012, 05:26 PM

So Stafford's passing yardage this year was 5th most (behind Brees 2011, Marino 1984, Brees 2008, Brady 2011) of all time?!

**Cylander** · 01-01-2012, 05:30 PM

Stafford is only the 3rd player in the history of the NFL to pass for 5000 or more yards and 40 or more TD. I hope Eli Manning feels terrible about himself when he plays in the Pro Bowl.

**Yoda** · 01-01-2012, 05:37 PM

Final statistics, I think:

5,038 yards, 41 TD, 16 INT.

Good first full season, Matt.

**Shelton** · 01-01-2012, 05:46 PM

I think stafford had a great season, but it is hard to compare him historically given the 16 game season and the recent rules favoring receivers and QBs. Either way, he's pretty good and the lions are lucky to have him. I do wonder what his numbers would be like if he had a halfway decent run game to pick up yards.

**Cylander** · 01-01-2012, 05:50 PM

If the Lions had a better running game, he would have fewer yards and TD. With a good run game, they wouldn't be asking him to pass as much.

**Shinzaki** · 01-01-2012, 05:56 PM

and with a legitimate running game he'd face LB's and safeties taking the run seriously...the LB's wouldn't be dropping back into his passing lanes as quickly and the safeties would be closer to the LOS. The DL wouldn't just be ponning their ears back and rushing the passer either..

**bob2009** · 01-01-2012, 06:18 PM

I think he's had an outstanding season. It's good to see he played in all the games and shook the injury bug. If the math is right, he's number 5 or 6 on the list above after today's shootout (Brady had a big day, as did Brees). He and Calvin are the only reasons this team is 10-6 and not 6-10 or 7-9. Unfortunately, he's off to the slaughterhouse next week against NO. Maybe we will find a way to get the kid a defense next year and a running game so he doesn't have to do it all himself.

**Yoda** · 01-01-2012, 06:21 PM

I don't believe he missed a single snap this year, did he? I think I recall Hill coming in a couple weeks ago for a play but they just ran it. I may be thinking of something else, though.

**Cylander** · 01-01-2012, 06:24 PM

Shaun Hill took a couple snaps this year but Stafford wasn't taken out for injury.

**Porcelain God** · 01-01-2012, 08:12 PM

Originally Posted by Cylander

Stafford is only the 3rd player in the history of the NFL to pass for 5000 or more yards and 40 or more TD. I hope Eli Manning feels terrible about himself when he plays in the Pro Bowl.

Wow, that is amazing. I am so very happy that he will not be playing at Hawaii just for injury reasons. He certainly deserved to be there.

**Motor City Sonics** · 01-01-2012, 08:17 PM

Originally Posted by Yoda

Final statistics, I think:

5,038 yards, 41 TD, 16 INT.

Good first full season, Matt.

Good? Are you kidding me? That is amazing. Didn't miss a start and that 41-16 could have been something like 45-10 if not for a broken finger.

Yes, the Lions would be better off with a running game and only asking Stafford to throw the ball 70% of the amount that he did this year.

Step one is replacing Raiola and Peterman in the offseason.....the two most important priorities between now and September.

**T&P_Fan** · 01-01-2012, 08:52 PM

Top 6 or 7 seasons all time in the NFL.

**Cylander** · 01-01-2012, 08:59 PM

Stafford has one of the best season of all time and didn't make the Pro Bowl. Maybe the league really is conspiring against Detroit.

**T&P_Fan** · 01-01-2012, 09:02 PM

Originally Posted by Cylander

Stafford has one of the best season of all time and didn't make the Pro Bowl. Maybe the league really is conspiring against Detroit.

I like your style.

**alwaysthrowheat** · 01-01-2012, 09:08 PM

Obviously this is a fantastic season. Easily the best one in Lions history. However, it's not one of the 10 best seasons of all time, probably closer to 20, just because of the era. I know the NFL doesn't have a stat like OPS+ in baseball, so that stats can be compared to the rest of the league. But, Stafford threw 663 times. That's third most in history. That was 100 times more than when Marino broke the record, just to put it into perspective.

**Cylander** · 01-01-2012, 09:16 PM

Why are there always people who need to devalue what Stafford has done? 5000 yards has only been done by 4 QB's. Until it's done more often, that ranks pretty high. I think Stafford dropping back to pass as much as he has, makes him better. He carried this offense. No one talks about Stafford for MVP, but he deserves some consideration.

**alwaysthrowheat** · 01-01-2012, 09:31 PM

Originally Posted by Cylander

Why are there always people who need to devalue what Stafford has done? 5000 yards has only been done by 4 QB's. Until it's done more often, that ranks pretty high. I think Stafford dropping back to pass as much as he has, makes him better. He carried this offense. No one talks about Stafford for MVP, but he deserves some consideration.

In NFL history, there were only two 5000 yard seasons. There were 3 this year. In the 1980s, there were 14 4000 yard seasons. 4 were Dan Marino. There were 16 such seasons in the last two years alone, and 10 just this year assuming Romo throws for 100 yards tonight.

If Rodgers team wouldn't have been so incredible, he'd have easily gotten to 5000 yards. He easily had the highest Y/PA. Manning is going to be pretty close after tonight, too. The point is that it's all relative.

Once again, Stafford had a fantastic year, and there is no taking that away from him. But you have to compare personal statistics to the rest of the league in order to truly put them into context.

In 1984, when Marino threw for 5000+ yards, the average QB rating was 73.1, and avg yards per game were 205.9. Now, it's 82.3 QB rating and 228.8 yards per game, obviously the most in NFL history in both categories. Huge difference.

**Cylander** · 01-01-2012, 09:37 PM

In 1998, there was only two players to hit 60 or more HR in baseball. Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire each hit over 60 HR. There's only been one other player to hit 60 or more HR. Mark McGwire's 70 HR doesn't fall out of the top 10 because another player hit 66 the same year.

**alwaysthrowheat** · 01-01-2012, 09:39 PM

Originally Posted by Cylander

In 1998, there was only two players to hit 60 or more HR in baseball. Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire each hit over 60 HR. There's only been one other player to hit 60 or more HR. Mark McGwire's 70 HR doesn't fall out of the top 10 because another player hit 66 the same year.

He was using performance enhancing drugs so that doesn't exactly validate anything. The way the league is going, 5000 yards is going to be surpassed much more often than it was before.