Football Outsiders Almanac 2009

[Edman85]

Worth the 12 bucks... you can purchase and download it here. In previous years, this was called the Football Prospectus, but the publishing company opted not to pick them up this year.

There's also a college section.

Anyways, I figured I'd post a teaser paragraph from the Lions' section, on Jim Schwartz:

While too easily labeled as the NFL’s first “Moneyball” coach, Schwartz has a background in analytics and research that should appeal
to readers of this tome. An economics major at Georgetown, Schwartz started off his career as a coaching assistant in Cleveland under Bill Belichick, where he conducted research on the year-to-year randomness of fumble recoveries that predated the existence of Football Outsiders (and our
similar research) by a decade. Schwartz went on to become the defensive coordinator in Tennessee, where he rebuilt a defense that was taken apart by salary cap moves — twice. The Titans led the league in defensive DVOA in 2007 and were fifth a year ago.

Although Schwartz has consulted with us on projects in the past (as well as contributed a quote to the back cover of previous versions of this book), don’t expect him to be quoting a player’s DVOA when talking to the media. Schwartz isn’t a mathematician who happens to be a football coach; he’s a football coach who is comfortable using numbers, a film junkie who uses metrics to help make sense of what he sees on tape. Detroit fans won’t get a
coach who reduces players down to a number or a metric (nor should they), but one who knows when and how to employ statistical analysis properly and effectively.

A good example is third down. Schwartz knows that a team’s performance on third down has a disproportionate impact on their success relative to how they do on first and second down, so the Lions will spend more time in practice and film study breaking down both the plays they’re likely to run on third down and likely to see the other team employ in those situations. He’s aware that teams historically enjoy more success running the ball in third-andshort situations, so offensive coordinator Scott Linehan’s play-calling will likely be tilted accordingly.

Schwartz’s decision-making will be equally affected, though, by his experiences as a pro coach. As he initially struggled with rebuilding the Tennessee defense, Schwartz realized that all the scheming and analysis in the world was useless if it didn’t fit the personnel he had in front of him. As a result, he began to construct his defenses with the primary goal of fitting the personnel he had in place. It seems like an odd thing to not take for granted, but one need only look at the defensive shift of the Chiefs this offseason to find a team that’s attempting to make its players fit a desired scheme, not vice versa.

There's more in there... I didn't want to go overboard, since it is a paid book. Good research as always in there. A refreshing break from the world of football cliches.

[Edman85]

One more blurb, on John Standeford:

The Lions had Megatron at one receiver position. On the other side, they started with Thundercracker before resorting to Frenzy, then Rumble, and finally Laserbeak. Forced into the starting lineup after Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey went on IR, Standeford ended up being part of our favorite Lions play of the season. On second and-1 from the Vikings 30, the Lions lined up in the I-Formation and ran play-action. Not a bad idea, of course — sell the play fake, try and hit Calvin Johnson going to the end zone, right? Nope — Lions offensive coordinator Jim Colletto kept Johnson in to pass block on the play so he could send Standeford out on a pattern. Remember, readers: These are the professionals.

[cruzer1]

Good stuff. Thanks alot Ed.

[djhutch]

The blurb on Standeford is hilarious, without slighting him. That's the best analysis I've read so far of explaining Schwartz's crazy math skilz.

[Buddha]

Football Prospectus is one of my favorite books every year.

I'm pretty excited about Jim Schwartz.

[Jason_R]

Originally Posted by Edman85

One more blurb, on John Standeford:

The Lions had Megatron at one receiver position. On the other side, they started with Thundercracker before resorting to Frenzy, then Rumble, and finally Laserbeak. Forced into the starting lineup after Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey went on IR, Standeford ended up being part of our favorite Lions play of the season. On second and-1 from the Vikings 30, the Lions lined up in the I-Formation and ran play-action. Not a bad idea, of course — sell the play fake, try and hit Calvin Johnson going to the end zone, right? Nope — Lions offensive coordinator Jim Colletto kept Johnson in to pass block on the play so he could send Standeford out on a pattern. Remember, readers: These are the professionals.

Oh dear God. I don't know how Colletto could be worse than I thought, but this little nugget proves he was.