DRAFT 1.1 QB Matthew Stafford

[RedRamage]

In the interest of consolidating discussion of each player, please use this thread to discuss the draft pick of the title.

[RedRamage]

Well, I'm not sure I'm for this pick... I think Curry could have made more of an immediate impact, but I hope, for all out sakes, that he ends up being a successful QB.

I will say this much: I've VERY happy that we have the deal done with before the Draft started. I'm glad we don't have to worry about any holding out.

[WMUDan]

I'm okay with the player. I hate the cap hit of taking a QB #1.

[wingnut736]

Originally Posted by RedRamage

Well, I'm not sure I'm for this pick... I think Curry could have made more of an immediate impact, but I hope, for all out sakes, that he ends up being a successful QB.

I will say this much: I've VERY happy that we have the deal done with before the Draft started. I'm glad we don't have to worry about any holding out.

Why do we need a player with immediate impact? This team is not going to compete next year.

Adding to this, I did want Curry, but still think Stafford was the way to go.

[RedRamage]

Originally Posted by wingnut736

Why do we need a player with immediate impact? This team is not going to compete next year.

Don't need to get immediate impact... But given a 0-16 team, fans as a rule are gonna want to see progress. Stafford is more of a long term project.

[snoogit]

I have a feeling we'll see immediate impact with Stafford's future weapon, and Kevin Smith's new best friend in Pettigrew.

[Johnny Mac]

Originally Posted by RedRamage

Don't need to get immediate impact... But given a 0-16 team, fans as a rule are gonna want to see progress. Stafford is more of a long term project.

would you rather have them improve a little bit next year or improve a lot in the future?

[djhutch]

I think they picked the right guy, though I'm not thrilled with the guaranteed money either. Still if you're gonna spend it I'd rather spend it on a QB than a LB.

[Dawgs]

Had to pick Stafford. I loved Curry but ya cant take an OLB whose strength is speed on the edge make him a MLB asking him to cover the deep middle and pay him 30 million. And the tackles just werent 1 overall tackles. My biggest regret with this selection is that we had 1 overall this season and not last year or next year or just about any year but this one.

[Hongbit]

Please be good.

[Tramfan]

I'm for it, and I'd go with the Troy Aikman rebuilding plan 10 out of 10 times and our oline and supporting cast will be better than his first year was, next year.

[snoogit]

from ESPN:

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nfcnorth/...fatuation.html

Lions coach Jim Schwartz called Stafford's throwing motion "classic," which we've heard from many people. Schwartz noted Stafford's ability to step in as a freshman starter at an SEC school. General manager Martin Mayhew said Stafford convinced him by "the way he carried himself" and "how smart he was about the game."

But the most telling explanation I heard came when Schwartz related how Stafford performed during a spring film session. Here's how Schwartz put it:

"We said, 'Before we start watching this game and you start talking us through it, why don't you tell us a little about the game?' He started saying, 'Oh I remember this. The first play of the game we wanted to take a shot. We went 'Twins right demon' and threw an 18-yard pass over the right side.'

"And he started talking through the whole game extemporaneously. We didn't tell him we were going to watch that game. It reminded me of golfers who can tell you every shot they made in a game. We actually had high school film of him when he was here for his visit. He could tell me everything that was getting ready to happen in those games. That kind of recall, that kind of intelligence, was the thing that was most interesting."

[InfanteIago]

Originally Posted by Johnny Mac

would you rather have them improve a little bit next year or improve a lot in the future?

Anything to avoid having a #1 pick again next year and having another cap hit.

[snoogit]

Originally Posted by Tramfan

I'm for it, and I'd go with the Troy Aikman rebuilding plan 10 out of 10 times and our oline and supporting cast will be better than his first year was, next year.

The first three rds of the Aikman draft for the Cowboys:

1 1 Troy Aikman QB UCLA
2 29 Steve Wisniewski G Penn State
2 39 Daryl Johnston RB Syracuse
3 57 Mark Stepnoski C Pittsburgh
3 68 Rhondy Weston DE Florida

not saying that's what the Lions needed to do.

[tigerkid23]

I've been sold on Stafford since February and I am very pleased with his selection. The money was kind of ridiciculous, but that's just the nature of the business at this point.

But, we have a big guy with a big arm who played in a pro offense and is very cerebral and intelligent by all accounts. I'm sold that he is going to be a very good quarterback for us. Hopefully, we'll continue to surround him with talent on the offensive line to make his job a little easier.

[snoogit]

I hope there is a stub OL in the top 10 for us next year, I wasn't totally sold on Oher, since a lot of people were pegging him as a better RT.

[tigerkid23]

Originally Posted by snoogit

I hope there is a stub OL in the top 10 for us next year, I wasn't totally sold on Oher, since a lot of people were pegging him as a better RT.

Russell Okung out of Oklahoma State looks like he's going to be a good one.

[snoogit]

Originally Posted by tigerkid23

Russell Okung out of Oklahoma State looks like he's going to be a good one.

There we go!

Again out of Ok. St! I'm liking the orange cowboys!

We haven't had problems drafting a guy from that college yet! (although lets hope Pettigrew doesn't jinx it.)

[tigerkid23]

Not an OT, but I really like Brandon Spikes out of Florida for next year's draft too. He's going to be a very good ILB for some NFL team.

[Buddha]

Jay Cutler 2.0?

[tigerkid23]

Originally Posted by Buddha

Jay Cutler 2.0?

That seems to be the most common comparison and it seems pretty accurate. They had comparable college careers in the SEC, similar size, both are regarded as very intelligent, and they both have cannons for arms. If Stafford can take care of the ball better than Cutler (Cutler averages an INT per game), he will be a top-ten QB. Can't really complain about that.

[lesgoblu02]

I don't get the "Diva" feeling from Stafford I get from Cutler.

[latiger12]

Originally Posted by WMUDan

I'm okay with the player. I hate the cap hit of taking a QB #1.

Yeah, maybe we can get someone that can throw to the 500 WR we have drafted.

[tigerkid23]

Originally Posted by lesgoblu02

I don't get the "Diva" feeling from Stafford I get from Cutler.

To be fair, Cutler didn't seem like a "diva" coming into the draft either. He was from Vanderbilt and had the "good ol' boy" reputation. It wasn't until this offseason that Cutler got that reputation.

[lesgoblu02]

Originally Posted by tigerkid23

To be fair, Cutler didn't seem like a "diva" coming into the draft either. He was from Vanderbilt and had the "good ol' boy" reputation. It wasn't until this offseason that Cutler got that reputation.

I have always heard about his diva tendencies.

[kajoreh]

the two keys i see here were gone over during the draft...

1) dilfer did a great service to everybody by asking if this kid has the mental makeup to do this job...not is he smart enough or good enough...is he the "alpha" male that he has to be to take the pressure that this position on this particular club will require him to be...only time will tell what he is made of...but if he doesn't have that core inside him, none of the other things are going to matter...that was a very insightful...does he have the aikman/payton/brady/montana "thing"?...cuz he is going to need it here

2) and how does the team handle him?...do they make it a place where he can succeed?...or do they feel the pressure to make something happen before it is time?...the good news is the ownership is loyal to a fault re: it's management people, so they may feel that the do not have to rush this and can let it develop naturally...when he is ready, then he plays...and nothing (the record/the fans/the press/the contract etc) changes that...but that's going to be a lot of pressure from a lot of directions...how do they (the team) get past that?...

[cruzer1]

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2009/05...-contract.html

Monday, May 11, 2009
Matthew Stafford's contract
No. 1 draft pick Matthew Stafford's contract with the Detroit Lions is an example of how the value of a contract often gets exaggerated when reported by the media. Stafford's contract has been reported as being for six years and $72 million, with $41.7 million guaranteed and an additional $6 million in incentives that could push the total value to $78 million. Those numbers could be correct -- if Stafford plays a certain percentage of the Lions' offensive snaps. However, if Stafford doesn't achieve certain qualifying incentives in his contract, he'll never receive close to that $41.7 million he's supposedly "guaranteed."

The only parts of Stafford's contract that he's fully guaranteed to receive right now are most of his base salaries and the protected value of his option bonus. He did not receive a signing bonus, which isn't unusual for a high draft pick. In 2008, none of the first seven players drafted got a signing bonus. Stafford's base salaries are $3.1 million for 2009, $395,000 for 2010, $1.17 million for 2011, $1.95 million for 2012 and $2.7 million for 2013. In 2010, the Lions will have to decide whether to exercise an option for 2014 by paying Stafford a $17.4 million option bonus. If they exercise the option, the bonus gets prorated from 2010 to 2014, and Stafford gets a base salary of $3.495 million for 2014.

Here are Stafford's salary cap numbers if the Lions exercise the option and Stafford does not achieve any playing-time or performance incentives --

2009 $3.1 million
2010 $3.875 million ($395,000 base salary plus $3.48 million option bonus proration)
2011 $4.65 million ($1.17 million base salary plus $3.48 million option bonus proration)
2012 $5.425 million ($1.945 million base salary plus $3.48 million option bonus proration)
2013 $6.2 million ($2.72 million base salary plus $3.48 million option bonus proration)
2014 $6.975 million ($3.495 million base salary plus $3.48 million option bonus proration)


Those are the basic elements of Stafford's contract, and they illustrate the 25 Percent Rule, which applies to rookies' contracts. The 25 Percent Rule essentially says that certain amounts in a rookie's contract can't increase each year by more than 25 percent of the first-year total of those amounts. Signing bonus prorations and most other amounts treated as signing bonuses aren't included in the calculation of the 25 Percent Rule, but option bonus prorations are included. The only first-year money Stafford gets is his base salary of $3.1 million, 25 percent of which comes to $775,000. So the applicable amounts in his contract -- in his case, those are his base salaries and option bonus prorations -- can't increase by more than $775,000 each year. And not coincidentally, that's exactly how much they increase each year.

The amounts listed in the chart represent the minimum he is scheduled to earn if he's on the Lions' roster through the 2014 season. The total of those amounts is $30.21 million. Not only is that not anywhere close to $41.7 million, Stafford isn't even guaranteed to receive all of that $30.21 million. The actual amount he's absolutely guaranteed to receive under any circumstances is a mere $17.05 million.

Let's take a look at what happens if the Lions decide very early in Stafford's career that they made an egregious mistake, and Stafford is closer to being the next Bobby Garrett than he is to being the next Bobby Layne. Suppose Stafford plays less than 35 percent of the Lions' offensive snaps during the 2009 regular season, and the team decides not to exercise the option in his contract for 2014. Stafford's option bonus is mostly protected, which means that if it's not exercised, a clause in his contract automatically kicks in and assures that he'll get most of the money anyway. If the option isn't exercised, Stafford's base salaries automatically increase to $3.875 million in 2010, $4.65 million in 2011, $5.425 million in 2012 and $6.2 million in 2013, and he becomes a free agent in 2014. You'll notice that those amounts are the same as his cap numbers if the option is exercised, and the total amount is the same. However, there's a catch to that $6.2 million in 2013.

In an NFL contract, base salaries can be guaranteed "for skill" and "for injury" and against cap considerations. A fully guaranteed salary protects a player in all three scenarios. If he can no longer play effectively, suffers a career-ending injury or simply has too high of a cap number, he'll still receive his salary if it's fully guaranteed. And Stafford's base salaries are fully guaranteed through 2012. His 2013 base salary, however, is not fully guaranteed, because of a rule in the Collective Bargaining Agreement that deals with guaranteed salaries. Article XXIV, Section 7, (d)(ii) of the CBA says, "In a Player Contract entered into in a Capped Year, 50% of the Salary fully guaranteed for any League Year beyond three years after the Final Capped Year will be included in Salary and Team Salary during the League Year or Years of the Contract in which the Salary Cap is in effect in a proportion to be determined by the Team." The "Final Capped Year" currently is 2009, which means that half of any salary fully guaranteed beyond 2012 would be charged against the Lions' salary cap in 2009. As a result, Stafford's 2013 base salary (and 2014, if his option is exercised) is not fully guaranteed. It's guaranteed against cap considerations and "for injury," but it's not guaranteed "for skill." So if the Lions decide Stafford simply doesn't have the skill to play for them, they can cut him without paying his salary for 2013. If that happens, and if Stafford never acheives any playing-time or performance incentives, the Lions will have paid him only $17.05 million.

So, why has Stafford's contract been reported as having $41.7 million in guaranteed money? Most likely, it's because Stafford's agent, Tom Condon, wants everyone to think that he got his client that much guaranteed money. In reality, though, that's not the amount that Stafford is guaranteed to receive -- it's the amount that he COULD BE guaranteed to receive, if he achieves certain qualifiers and the Lions exercise his option. If Stafford achieves his qualifiers in 2009, there's a $9.105 million roster bonus in 2010, an additional $7.83 million in fully guaranteed salary for 2011 and an additional $755,000 in fully guaranteed salary for 2012. Along with the $17.4 million option bonus and his standard base salaries for 2009 through 2012, the total comes to $41.7 million, the figure cited by the media. But $24.65 million of that "guaranteed" money is dependent upon Stafford meeting his qualifiers. (The contract also includes built-in ways for Stafford to receive most or all of that money even if it takes him until 2010, 2011 or 2012 to achieve his qualifiers.)

The rest of Stafford's $72 million consists of a potential $7.8 million salary escalator in 2012 and escalated salaries of $11.5 million in 2013 and $11 million in 2014. But again, the only way for him to have those salaries is by reaching his qualifiers in certain seasons. And if those aren't enough, he has additional escalators of up to $1.5 million in certain seasons that could push his total contract value to its maximum of $78 million.

On a related note, I hate to correct ESPN.com's NFC North blogger, Kevin Seifert, considering that he has cited my blog three times. But in his May 8 entry about Stafford's contract, he mistakenly says that the use of the option bonus is "exact strategy" I wrote about in this post that I made on March 21 about a loophole around the 30 Percent Rule (and possibly the 25 Percent Rule for rookies). But it's not the same strategy. Option bonuses aren't a loophole around the rules, because the CBA specifically states that option bonuses count in the calculations for either rule. The loophole involves completion bonuses, which can be guaranteed but do not count in the calculations for the 30 Percent Rule.
Posted by AdamJT13 at 7:52 AM
Labels: NFL, NFL draft, NFL salary cap

[djhutch]

This bugs me a bit. All we heard about for 2 weeks after the draft was that Matthew Stafford, who's never played a down, is the richest guy in the NFL. ESPN & NFL Network both paraded people in front of the cameras saying something as to be done. They put the Commish & the Players Union Chief on camera together to get their reactions. Not one time did I hear anybody say we really need to wait to see how the deal is structured before we know how much guaranteed money we're really talking about. Of all the ex-players on those networks, you'd think one of them would say "Wait a minute"...

[mtutiger]

Originally Posted by djhutch

This bugs me a bit. All we heard about for 2 weeks after the draft was that Matthew Stafford, who's never played a down, is the richest guy in the NFL. ESPN & NFL Network both paraded people in front of the cameras saying something as to be done. They put the Commish & the Players Union Chief on camera together to get their reactions. Not one time did I hear anybody say we really need to wait to see how the deal is structured before we know how much guaranteed money we're really talking about. Of all the ex-players on those networks, you'd think one of them would say "Wait a minute"...

They did the same crap with Matt Ryan last year, so it's nothing new. I still think the deal is too big myself

[djhutch]

Originally Posted by mtutiger

They did the same crap with Matt Ryan last year, so it's nothing new. I still think the deal is too big myself

I agree the deal is probably a bit excessive, not in comparison with what other top picks have gotten but in comparison to QBs who've proven themselves on the field. The new lawyer just passing the bar doesn't make more than Alan Dershowitz right out of the gate. I don't think that business model is sustainable long term. But it still should have been described better by the people who get paid to know this stuff.

[slfairless]

Originally Posted by djhutch

This bugs me a bit. All we heard about for 2 weeks after the draft was that Matthew Stafford, who's never played a down, is the richest guy in the NFL. ESPN & NFL Network both paraded people in front of the cameras saying something as to be done. They put the Commish & the Players Union Chief on camera together to get their reactions. Not one time did I hear anybody say we really need to wait to see how the deal is structured before we know how much guaranteed money we're really talking about. Of all the ex-players on those networks, you'd think one of them would say "Wait a minute"...

It makes for good TV.

[RestortheRoar]

Let's put the over/under for how many regular season games it will take before Stafford gets a start at 10. What do you guys take?

I'll give the coaches some credit at not rushing him in and take the OVER, but if Culpepper looks senile, and the season is in the dumps, it could easily happen earlier than that.

[djhutch]

Originally Posted by slfairless

It makes for good TV.

I know. I actually thought about mentioning that in my post, but decided not to. Still, I'm amazed that not one person mentioned the way this guaranteed money works. At least not that I heard.

[GuitarGod19]

Wonder what the qualifiers are, making the playoffs or pro bowls? Throwing for a certain amount of TDs or Yds? Percentage of snaps taken?

[cruzer1]

Snaps.

[itsallgood8989]

Seriously, I think I read that making the probowl was a qualifier for each individual year... I forget the other ones, but i did read it somewhere before..... I remember when reading it, thinking that there was no way he would achieve most of them....

[cruzer1]

Originally Posted by RestortheRoar

Let's put the over/under for how many regular season games it will take before Stafford gets a start at 10. What do you guys take?

I'll give the coaches some credit at not rushing him in and take the OVER, but if Culpepper looks senile, and the season is in the dumps, it could easily happen earlier than that.

I believe the bye week is week 6, so he'll be starting after that. That's my guess.

[itsallgood8989]

I predict 0 starts.... will get playing time, but no starts this season

[Jason_R]

Cruzer, thanks for posting this.

For everyone asking why the media is reporting something different than this, I suspect the answer is that they don't know the facts, and it is easier just to continue to report innuendos because everyone believes them than it is to do the research.

I wonder how Stafford's contract, when viewed at this level of detail, stacks up against Ryan's contract or the contracts of other top picks. The answer to that question would go a long way toward answering the question of how Mayhew/Lewand are performing.

[brighteststar69]

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2009/05...-contract.html

A little info on Stafford's contract for those interested. It is worded nicely, he will not make near what is being reported.