Football Outsiders on Fox Unit Rankings

[Edman85]

I figured I'd start this thread because I like their analysis and it would put some perspective upon where the Lions stand.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5764156

Ranking the quarterbacks, team by team
Aaron Schatz / FootballOutsiders.com
Posted: 3 days ago

Nothing stirs up debate like a good set of rankings, and ranking all 32 NFL teams unit-by-unit is an annual FOXSports.com tradition. This year, the debate comes with a little twist, as our rankings are grounded not in the conventional wisdom but in the advanced statistics of Football Outsiders.

Any discussion of an NFL team usually starts with the quarterback, and our rankings are no exception. Rating quarterbacks as a unit means taking into account more than just the first-stringer on each team. However, quarterback is very different from other positions, because the bench players only see action if the starter is injured. So a lack of depth at quarterback is less of an issue than it is at other positions. (We're looking at you, Patriots.)

Since we'll be rating each unit as it exists in 2006, we're taking into account performance over the last couple of years, but we're also considering age and injuries. All those teams whose starting quarterbacks are still iffy for the start of the 2006 season get penalized, as do teams whose quarterbacks are currently healthy but have a bad injury record. It's better for your backup to be a first-round rookie with potential than a mediocre journeyman, but Tennessee doesn't get to rank higher because Vince Young might be the best quarterback in football five years from now. Our judgment of inexperienced quarterbacks is guided in part by our new rookie quarterback projection system, the subject of a long essay in our upcoming book Pro Football Prospectus 2006. You can read an introduction to the system here.

You'll see a lot of stats you recognize here, and one you may not: DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement. DPAR takes every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent, rewarding players for strong performance on third down and in the red zone and giving them less credit for meaningless gains like a six-yard scramble on third-and-12. For those interested, you can find all the 2005 DPAR numbers for quarterbacks on this page.

Without further ado, here's a list of the NFL's quarterback units from best to worst.

1. Indianapolis
If you have been reading Football Outsiders over the past couple years, you know that there is no topic in football that we despise more than the never-ending, always irrational debate over who is the best quarterback in the NFL, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. But since we're rating units here rather than players, we get to avoid that argument. If we assume that Brady and Manning are equivalent, then Indianapolis must rank as the top quarterback unit in the league thanks to Jim Sorgi.

Wait a minute ... Jim Sorgi? Sixth-round afterthought out of Wisconsin Jim Sorgi? He's the guy who shows up when the Colts have already clinched their playoff spot, and nobody even knows if his name is pronounced with a soft "g" or a hard "g." What gives?

Sorgi's numbers in limited playing time over the past two years are excellent: he's completed 66 percent of his passes with 10.3 yards per completion, five touchdowns, and just one interception. The typical response would be to discount Sorgi's numbers, because he's taking advantage of the powerful offensive weapons that surround him in the Indianapolis offense. Which is true, if by "powerful offensive weapon" you mean "fifth-string wideout Aaron Moorehead." Sorgi's numbers are far better than any of the backups who have played in similar situations for the league's other powerful offenses, including Seneca Wallace, Matt Cassel, Charlie Batch, and even Jon Kitna.

2. New England
Tom Brady has already secured his spot in the Hall of Fame, but if he's injured, the Patriots are in serious trouble. Matt Cassel hasn't started a game since high school, and until the Patriots sign a veteran of some sort, their third-string quarterback is undrafted rookie Corey Bramlett.

3. Seattle
Last year, the quarterback hierarchy in the NFL seemed clear. On top, you had Brady and Manning, with Carson Palmer close behind. The second tier featured Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, and Matt Hasselbeck. Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper were also worthy of consideration, if we assume that neither was fully responsible for his 2005 struggles.

Going into 2006, there's something obvious that separates Hasselbeck from every other quarterback in the NFL's second tier: he's the only one who has not had a significant injury in the past 12 months. That's enough to put Seattle ahead of the rest of the NFL behind the Colts and Patriots in our rankings. Behind Hasselbeck, there are depth problems: 2005 third-rounder David Greene has not been impressive in practice, and Seneca Wallace was more impressive in one postseason snap as a receiver than he was in his entire Week 17 cameo as a quarterback while Hasselbeck rested for the playoffs.

4. Pittsburgh
This is where it starts to get tricky because of all the injured quarterbacks. If you believe the media reports, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Culpepper, and Brees are all ahead of schedule. As Ron Borges of the Boston Globe pointed out, a year ago Chad Pennington was allegedly ahead of schedule, and that didn't turn out so hot.

Nonetheless, Roethlisberger is in better shape than Palmer, Brees, or Culpepper. Each one could miss the start of the season, and each one could have a setback that delays his return. But any quarterback would prefer to rehab his face and his diet rather than his knee or his shoulder. Once he can play, Roethlisberger will return to full strength quickly, and he's one of the best quarterbacks in the game whether you judge by rings or by stats. Big Ben is the only quarterback since 1978 with two seasons in the top 10 for net yards per pass attempt, and of course they happen to be the only two seasons he's played. If the injured quarterbacks all miss the start of the season, Charlie Batch has a better track record than Joey Harrington or Anthony Wright, and Omar Jacobs is a promising third-string prospect, although he really needed another year of college seasoning.

5. Denver
While he struggled in the AFC Championship game against Pittsburgh, Jake Plummer's huge year was not a fluke. Over the past three seasons, Plummer has ranked eighth, 11th, and sixth in Football Outsiders' advanced DPAR ratings. Obviously, a big difference between Plummer in Arizona and Plummer in Denver is the talent that surrounds him, but it isn't like Denver is the only team at the top of these rankings with a strong offensive line and a good running game. Denver gets moved up a couple spots because they happen to have a highly-regarded first-round pick learning behind Plummer, although anyone who thinks Jay Cutler should start ahead of Plummer in 2006 is delusional. Third-stringer Bradlee Van Pelt is not Alex Van Pelt.

6. Cincinnati
If Carson Palmer had not injured his knee, Cincinnati would rank third. But despite the rosy reports from the Queen City, it's hard to believe that Palmer can recover from a torn ACL in just nine months and be in the starting lineup, at full strength, ready to take on Kansas City on September 10. Anthony Wright is not a good quarterback, and Doug Johnson is even worse. Assuming that Palmer can be back to last year's level by halfway through this season, this seems like the right place to rank the Bengals.

7. Kansas City
Like Ken Anderson 30 years ago, or Jake Plummer today, Trent Green is often discredited by NFL fans who believe his outstanding performance is due to his offensive system or the talent surrounding him rather than his own abilities. But over the past four seasons, these are Green's ranks in our advanced DPAR stats: sixth, second, fifth, fourth. Tony Gonzalez and Larry Johnson and Willie Roaf are great players, but some of that has to be Green's doing. He's also an absurdly good scrambler who rarely runs with the ball without getting a first down. That being said, Green is on the downside of his career. If he gets injured, the Chiefs will have to play 2006 third-round pick Brodie Croyle before he is ready.

8. Philadelphia
For years, it was hard to tell if Donovan McNabb's numbers were unimpressive because he was overrated, or because he just needed better receivers. If you liked that argument, get ready to hear it again this year. The good news for the Eagles is that McNabb's sports hernia doesn't have long-term effects; unlike a torn rotator cuff or ACL, the player is basically healthy once the surgery is done. Jeff Garcia is okay as a backup, but at this point in his career he's just another replacement-level veteran. Koy Detmer likes to hold things.

9. Jacksonville
Byron Leftwich has gotten better each year, going from 23rd to 17th to 13th in our DPAR rankings. His advanced stats look better than his standard numbers because he was insanely good on third downs last year. Normally, that's the kind of thing that doesn't last ... except Leftwich was also one of the league's top quarterbacks on third downs in 2004. Meanwhile, every year or two, someone else gets to hold the title of "best backup quarterback in football," and now it's David Garrard's turn. Is this the best 1-2 punch in the league? Even if it is, it won't look like it in 2006, because Jimmy Smith's retirement leaves no go-to receiver and the running game continues to decline as Fred Taylor ages.

10/11. New Orleans and Miami
It's really hard to tell which of these two teams is better off because there are so many questions. Which is worse, the possible long-term shoulder damage from Brees's torn rotator cuff or the likelihood that Culpepper's ACL injury has robbed him of his mobility? Which of these two guys is coming back first, and at what strength? Who is the real Daunte Culpepper — the guy from 2004 who had one of the best quarterback seasons in history, the guy from 2005 who looked horrible, or some guy halfway in between? Is the disappointing Joey Harrington a better or worse backup than run-of-the-mill veteran Jamie Martin? Will Adrian McPherson ever actually play, and do the Saints pay him through direct deposit?

Will Steve McNair find new life in Baltimore? (Eliot J. Schecter / Getty Images)

12. Baltimore
For so long, the Ravens had a great defense and running game with no passing attack whatsoever. Now, with Steve McNair throwing to Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, the passing attack is probably the best part of the team. McNair somehow ranked ninth in DPAR last year in Tennessee even though he was throwing to a gimpy Drew Bennett, three tight ends, and a gaggle of fourth receivers. But he's still old and brittle, and will doubtlessly miss some games, which is why Baltimore isn't ranked higher. It's hard to know what to think about the demoted Kyle Boller — our KUBIAK fantasy projection system seems to think he was ready for a breakout season after his improvement in the second half, but Boller's poor mechanics have always defied our projections.

13. Washington
Mark Brunell's big comeback was a lot of fun, but it's unlikely that he will have a season as good — or as healthy — in 2006. Brunell dropped from 6.0 net yards per pass with three interceptions (Weeks 1-9) to 5.7 net yards per pass with seven interceptions (Weeks 10-17). He also went from converting 46 percent of third-down passes (with an average of 7.6 yards to go) to converting only 33 percent of third-down passes (despite a lower average of 6.6 yards to go). The good news for Washington fans is that backup Jason Campbell does very well in our rookie quarterback projection system. You can predict the NFL performance of first- and second-round quarterbacks with astonishing accuracy using just two college stats: games started and completion percentage. No other recent high draft pick ranks above Campbell in both categories.

14. Arizona
In 2005, Kurt Warner had his best season since 2001, and in a world where Drew Bledsoe and Mark Brunell can lead teams to winning records, it's not that unreasonable to think that Warner has a 9-7 season left in him — especially with Edge on board to take some of the heat off. Even better, the drafting of Matt Leinart shows that the Cardinals realize that Warner is a short-term solution, not a long-term one. Our rookie quarterback projection system says Leinart is as close to a sure thing as you will find in the draft. He may have a lower ceiling than Cutler or Vince Young, but he's also much less likely to be a bust. All that talk about Leinart being "too Hollywood" for the NFL is just a bunch of hot air until he shows that he can't get it done in the desert the way he did at USC.

15. Carolina
Jake Delhomme is a good quarterback, but not a great one. He has streaky accuracy, he moves well in the pocket and does a good job of avoiding hits, and he will look better now that Keyshawn Johnson has replaced that cardboard cutout at the No. 2 wideout spot. Chris Weinke is a mediocre backup, and third-stringer Stefan LeFors is an unknown.

16. Atlanta
When the Falcons missed the playoffs last year, the public's opinion of Michael Vick plunged faster than XFL television ratings. But while Vick has been a terrible passer for the last three seasons, that doesn't mean he lacks the talent to be a good passer in 2006 and beyond. It's really up to Vick — does he want to learn to be an NFL quarterback, or does he want to make excuses for why his play in real life doesn't match his video game stardom? It will be interesting to see what the Falcons do with Matt Schaub, who is highly regarded and a more polished passer than Vick. Schaub looked fabulous in his one start during 2005, but remember that last year's Patriots secondary wasn't exactly winning any awards.

17. St. Louis
Marc Bulger has been one of the NFC's better quarterbacks over the past few seasons, but nobody is quite sure what will become of him as the Rams transition from the Mike Martz offense to the Scott Linehan offense. Will he keep his interceptions low like 2004, or will they revert to the high level of 2003? He'll probably take fewer sacks, and perhaps that will keep him in the lineup and keep Gus Frerotte and Ryan Fitzpatrick on the bench. With the talent around him fading, our statistical projections say his fantasy value is going to plummet.

18. New York Giants
Giants fans think that Eli Manning is still going to turn into his brother. Perhaps they are right, and you don't want to judge a number one overall pick after just a year and a half, but so far Eli Manning hasn't been Peyton Manning. He's been Jay Schroeder. Manning was actually more accurate in the second half of the season (54 percent) than he was in the first half (52 percent), but he seemed to decline because all those bad passes that dropped harmlessly to the ground early in the season were suddenly finding the hands of opposing defensive backs. The backups are a bunch of replacement-level guys, and if the first-string defense ever faces the third-string offense in practice, Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora may accidentally kill Rob Johnson.

19. Green Bay
The hardest team to rank. Brett Favre is coming off the worst year of his career, but you also have to consider that his offensive line was horrible and his schedule was filled with good defenses: the Super Bowl champion Steelers, the ball-hawking Bengals, the Bears twice, the Bucs and Panthers, and so on. When the time comes for Favre to move on, Aaron Rodgers projects to be solid but unspectacular.

20. Tampa Bay
Chris Simms looked good as the starter last year, and improved as the year went along. Unfortunately, Simms has been injury prone in the past, and so have all his backups. Simms had shoulder issues in 2004. Jay Fiedler hurt his shoulder last year and might not even be ready for training camp. Luke McCown already blew out his knee. Tim Rattay broke himself in three places during the time it took you to read this sentence. It would surprise nobody if the Bucs had four guys on the injured list and undrafted rookie Bruce Gradkowski starting by Week 17.

Drew Bledsoe stay healthy in 2006? Don't count on it. (Street Lecka / Getty Images)

21. Dallas
Drew Bledsoe is just an average quarterback at this point. Each additional year saps a little bit of his ability, with a greater chance that he'll miss games due to the aches and pains that come with age. Tony Romo is a big fat question mark, and Drew Henson is a cautionary tale about talented young athletes who can't commit to a single sport. Are you listening, Jeff Samardzija?

22. San Diego
The good news: Philip Rivers scores higher in our rookie projection system than any other recently drafted quarterback. He started a whopping 49 games at North Carolina State and his completion percentage of 72 percent as a senior is an ACC record. Many people question the choice of Rivers over Drew Brees, but many people questioned the decision to start Carson Palmer over Jon Kitna in Cincinnati and that turned out pretty well. The bad news: The rookie projection system predicts how good a quarterback will be over his career, not in his rookie season alone. And if Rivers falters or gets injured, the Chargers have no depth. A.J. Feeley has been awful since leaving Philadelphia, and 2006 third-rounder Charlie Whitehurst isn't going to be ready any time this year.

23. Houston
David Carr was terrible last year, but conventional wisdom says he's the victim of circumstance. But now that a new coaching staff is taking over in Houston, this is probably the last year he can use that excuse. Sage Rosenfels is nobody's idea of a starting quarterback, but he's also not the bum that most people think he is. He's a serviceable backup.

24. Detroit
Mike Martz may be able to do wonders with Jon Kitna, Josh McCown, or even 2005 fifth-rounder Dan Orlovsky. But it's far more likely that none of these quarterbacks has a ceiling higher than "average." Kitna, in particular, isn't a guy you want to build your franchise around — he is 34 years old, and he's not getting any better.

25. Cleveland
Charlie Frye definitely has promise, but last year he had plenty of rookie struggles and he still needs some growth time. Ken Dorsey is the Rodney Dangerfield of backup quarterbacks — most people think he's awful, but his rookie numbers in 2004 were virtually identical to Eli Manning's, only better. Derek Anderson is.

26. New York Jets
Once upon a time, Chad Pennington was one of the league's most promising young quarterbacks. He finished second in DPAR in 2002, behind only Rich Gannon. But after constant shoulder problems, it's hard to tell how well he can still play. Patrick Ramsey isn't going to lead a team to victory on his own, although he would probably do well as a Trent Dilfer-like game manager quarterback on a team built around defense and the running game. Don't be surprised if second-rounder Kellen Clemens is the starter by December, but while Clemens has plenty of promise and could end up as one of the best picks in the 2006 draft, he's not going to win many games as a rookie.

27. Chicago
At this point, the only thing we know about Rex Grossman is that he's better than Kyle Orton. Brian Griese was very good in Tampa Bay in 2004, and his 2003 struggles in Miami were in large part caused by the terrible offensive line in front of him. But he's also coming back from the same ACL injury that has us all wondering about Daunte Culpepper and Carson Palmer, and neither Griese or Grossman has a good track record for staying healthy. The Bears would prefer to leave Orton on the bench all season.

28. Tennessee
Billy Volek started half of 2004, completing 61 percent of his passes and throwing 18 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions. This makes it sound like he can replace Steve McNair with no problem, but if you look closer you'll see that Volek put up those stats against a phenomenally week schedule: the Chiefs, Colts, Vikings, and Raiders all had terrible defenses in 2004. In reality, Volek is just another backup quarterback, and when he struggles this year, there will be pressure to play Vince Young early. The Titans can't risk that Young will fall into the same trap as Vick, leaning on the fabulous athletic talent that won games in college rather than learning the fundamental mechanics and strategy that will win games in the NFL.

29. San Francisco
Our advanced stats go back nine years, and in those nine years no quarterback had a season worse than Alex Smith's 2005. That being said, he was the number one overall pick for a reason, and he didn't really have a lot of talent around him in San Francisco. He also was much younger than the average NFL rookie: the only other quarterbacks to play their rookie year at age 21 were Drew Bledsoe, Michael Vick, and Tommy Maddox. Trent Dilfer is quite experienced at being the backup with experience. Cody Pickett has a fun name to pronounce.

30. Oakland
Aaron Brooks is a mediocre quarterback who has long been overrated because he put up strong fantasy football numbers. He gains plenty of rushing yards, and always is among the league leaders in meaningless 12-yard passes on third-and-15. Now, instead of being a mediocre quarterback, he's a below-average quarterback on the decline, stuck on a team that keeps avoiding a much-needed rebuilding process. Backup Andrew Walter, a 2005 third-rounder, has some promise, but has yet to play in the regular season. At this point, it's clear third-stringer Marques Tuiasosopo is not an NFL quarterback.

31. Minnesota
Brad Johnson has been in the NFL for 15 years, and he's managed to stay healthy through all 16 games only three times. At age 38, is this going to be the fourth? When the inevitable injury comes, the Vikings are in trouble. Mike McMahon scrambles far too often and has no touch on his passes, and if people think Vince Young needs a lot of preparation before he's ready to play in the NFL, where does that leave Tavaris Jackson?

32. Buffalo
Just a total disaster area. J.P. Losman looked terrible last year, and according to the rookie projection system, no recent first-round pick is less likely to become a productive NFL starter. Backing up Brett Favre is much like being the Maytag repairman, so nobody knows what to expect from Craig Nall. Kelly Holcomb is the other option.

[Edman85]

Running Backs

Ranking the running backs, team by team
Tim Gerheim / FootballOutsiders.com
Posted: 16 days ago

At some positions, depth is exclusively a matter of injury. The starter is the starter, and if all goes well, he's always the starter. Peyton Manning doesn't come off the field in certain formations. The Chiefs don't spell Willie Roaf on some plays or take him out for a series to keep him fresh. Evaluating those positions is about ranking the starters first and foremost, then making small adjustments based on the quality of the backups and the likelihood that they will play.

The same is not true for running backs. Herm Edwards wants the Chiefs to run the ball more than 500 times this year, and no team had fewer than 360 rushing attempts in 2005. 350 carries is heavy use for a single back. That leaves a lot of work for the rest of the depth chart. Add in the increasing number of teams that use a running back committee rather than a clear first-string starter, and it's clear that when ranking the NFL's 32 teams on their running backs, you have to consider more than just 32 players.

These rankings started with the productivity of each team's halfbacks in 2005 and then were adjusted subjectively for things like age (the cruel reality of the NFL, especially for running backs), the quality of fullbacks, and the likelihood of improvement or decline. Teams like the Giants, Falcons and Cardinals (including Edgerrin James) would top the charts based on last year, but they all rely heavily on aging backs likely to pull either a Curtis Martin — an injury-plagued season after a career year at age 31 — or a Marshall Faulk — a slow decline after a consistently productive career. The teams that top the rankings below have great starting backs who are relatively young and durable, with good players available behind them — and ideally great fullbacks in front of them.

You'll see a lot of stats you recognize here, and a couple you may not: DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement, and DVOA, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Both stats take every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent, rewarding players for strong performance on third down and in the red zone and giving them less credit for meaningless gains like a nine-yard catch on third-and-12. The difference: More DPAR means a running back with more total value, while a higher DVOA means a running back with more value per play. This page lists these advanced stats for all running backs in 2005, both rushing and receiving.

1. Seattle

The Seahawks' ground game starts with MVP Shaun Alexander. Alexander is still on the right side of 30 and hasn't had an inordinate number of carries in his career, so although he had a dangerous amount of work in 2005, he still has a good chance to stay healthy in 2006. If he does get injured, backup Maurice Morris has a solid track record with a 4.7 yards-per-carry average in four seasons. In last year's playoffs, the Seahawks' offense had no problem against Washington — the second-best defense in the league according to DVOA — even though Morris played the lion's share of the game after Alexander suffered a concussion. And if you're enough of an NFL follower to be reading this article, you probably already know Mack Strong's name — and considering how anonymous most NFL fullbacks are, that says a lot.

2. San Diego

The Chargers just missed the top spot because LaDainian Tomlinson has not been as good the last two years as Shaun Alexander. Woe are the Chargers, no doubt. Their starter is easily one of the top five backs in the league, he is only 27, and he has only missed one game in his career. In limited action, top backup Michael Turner has looked good enough to start for several teams. He and fullback Lorenzo Neal sported the two best rushing DVOAs in the league last year. Neal is also one of the best blocking fullbacks in football.

3. Washington

The Redskins may be a surprising choice at third, but they belong in the conversation with their neighbors in this list. Only five running backs posted more DPAR last year than Clinton Portis, and he is younger than any of them. After his rocky first year in Washington, Portis appears comfortable in Joe Gibbs' one-back offense. Last year, according to the Football Outsiders game charting project, only the Colts and Patriots ran behind a fullback less often than the Redskins. Ladell Betts and Rock Cartwright work well as change-of-pace backs — Cartwright in particular deserves more playing time — although neither has the all-around talent to really take over for Portis should he suffer a major injury.

4. Cincinnati

Rudi Johnson is for real. Trading Corey Dillon to make room for Johnson now looks like the smartest thing the Bengals have done since drafting Carson Palmer. Or maybe since they hired Marvin Lewis. These Bengals have been on a roll lately. Johnson is young and doesn't have very many carries under his belt, so he's one of the safest bets among the top backs to stay healthy. Johnson has a strong backup in Chris Perry, a one-time first-round pick who also is one of the more misunderstood players in the NFL. By reputation, Perry is a great outlet receiver but nothing special as a runner. Our numbers say Perry did well when he carried the ball, but his -5.4 DPAR was the second-worst receiving total for a running back in 2005. Sure, he had 52 catches, but many of them were meaningless: only 7 of his 17 catches on third or fourth down actually converted for a new set of downs, and Perry actually lost yardage on four of his receptions. Jeremi Johnson is (characteristically) underrated at fullback; the Bengals run behind a fullback more than any other team in the league, 93 percent of the time.

5. Kansas City

Running back depth charts, it turns out, shake out into two general groups. Some teams have multiple backs, including fullbacks, who are very good at what they do. Sure, the backup isn't as good as the starter (except in Baltimore, more on that in a bit), but compared to his fellow backups he's a valuable, quality player.

Other teams have running back depth charts that look like quarterback depth charts: the starter is so much better than the backups that it would be a disaster if he were injured. The Kansas City Chiefs are kings of the second group. Larry Johnson had the best running back season in the league last year — yes, according to DPAR, he was more valuable than Shaun Alexander — and he only started nine games. He's young. He doesn't even have two seasons' worth of carries for his career. If this were a simple ranking of running backs, he would be at the top.

But this is a depth chart ranking. Priest Holmes has one foot in the grave, NFL-ogically speaking, and the team's other backups are Dee Brown, Quentin Griffin, and some undrafted rookies. On top of that, standout fullback Tony Richardson left for Minnesota, leaving no one on the roster who has ever started at fullback. Although the Chiefs only run behind fullback 60 percent of the time, the lack of experience at the position is still worrisome. The Chiefs squeak into the top five because they have the best running back in football, and nothing else; if Larry Johnson stays healthy and effective, nobody will notice the lack of depth behind him.

6. Baltimore

Jamal Lewis: great Ravens running back, or the greatest Ravens running back? A year ago, Lewis was 13.1 points below replacement level. So the Ravens replaced his backup, Chester Taylor, who was more effective. They brought in Mike Anderson, who was much more effective last year. (Some of this was the difference between the Denver and Baltimore offensive lines, of course.) Lewis had a lot of reasons for performing poorly last year — chiefly injury and incarceration. This year he's in danger of losing his starting job. A depth chart of Mike Anderson backed up by Jamal Lewis, led by fullback Alan Ricard, looks formidable indeed. If Lewis makes an unlikely return to near his 2003 form, Baltimore will have the best running back group in the league.

7. Chicago

They lack the top-end talent of the teams ranked above them, but the Bears have the deepest running back pool in the league. On the right teams, Thomas Jones, Adrian Peterson, and Cedric Benson could all start. Jones was the most effective last year, ranking 11th in DPAR, but Peterson was the most efficient: he led all backs with at least 75 carries in rushing DVOA. Benson held out and got injured, so he really didn't contribute anything last year, but if your third running back was the fourth overall pick in the draft only one year ago, you have some strength at the running back position.

8. Pittsburgh

The Steelers prepare — a tear in their eye — to begin life after Bettis. Duce Staley will try to do a better job this year of staying healthy and being the MicroBus. Willie Parker is the Steelers' little engine that could. He looks like a poor man's Clinton Portis, built the same way and given a similar number of carries in his first year as a starter. Apparently the difference between a second-round pick and an undrafted free agent is the difference between 5.5 and 4.8 yards per carry. With Parker starting and Staley playing the role of short yardage battering ram, all behind superlative blocker Dan Kreider, the Steelers shouldn't miss Bettis' production on the field nearly as much as his leadership off it.

9. New York Giants

Tiki Barber had a phenomenal 2005 season, gaining 1,860 rushing yards, the 11th-highest total in NFL history. But 31-year-old running backs don't repeat career years, particularly career years that also included a career-high 357 carries. Only two running backs in NFL history managed 1,500-yard seasons at age 31 or older: Curtis Martin and Walter Payton. With increased age and usage comes increased chance of injury and/or slowdown. Brandon Jacobs provided some of the thunder-and-lightning counterpunch last year that the Giants never quite got out of Ron Dayne, particularly late in the season as he got better at not running so upright. But the Giants would not be happy if Jacobs had to start for an extended period of time.

10. New England

A banged-up Corey Dillon who missed four games and came off the bench in two others was still worth over 20 points above replacement level. With first-round pick Laurence Maroney available this year to spell the aging Dillon, the Patriots shouldn't have to go so far down the depth chart that the backup fullback gets over 50 carries again. Even though he'll be 32 at midseason, Dillon should be healthy and effective enough, when paired with Maroney, to allow Kevin Faulk to return to his proper role as third-down back. That, in turn, will help Faulk rebound from the third-worst rushing DVOA in the league last year.

11. Arizona

It almost seems wrong to rank the Cardinals' backs so high. The Cardinals, with Marcel Shipp and J.J. Arrington, are in hot competition with the Chiefs for the distinction of having the worst backup rushers in the league. Denny Green and company obviously thought so as well, and that's why they brought in a back as superlative as Edgerrin James. He has been in the top 10 in DPAR for the last three years, including third last year. But he has a lot of mileage on his tires, and research you can find in Pro Football Prospectus 2006 indicates that he's due for a drop in yards per carry — and that's before taking into account the atrocious Arizona offensive line. He'll also have to get used to running behind fullback Obafemi Ayanbadejo; the Colts ran with a fullback a league-low 27 percent of the time last year, while the Cardinals did it a league-average 77 percent of the time.

12. Tampa Bay

Cadillac Williams won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors even while being banged up for much of the middle of the season. If he can improve his strength and conditioning for 2006 so that he is able to play all season at the level he played at last September, the Bucs could ride back to the playoffs in style. Michael Pittman is in the running for best backup/third-down back in the NFL. Nobody runs a wheel route better than Pittman. "Fullback" Mike Alstott may not be the best short-yardage back in the league anymore, but he is probably the best-loved by his fans. The real fullback will be veteran Jerald Sowell, formerly of the New York Jets, who was among the league leaders in receiving DVOA for years and years before crashing down to earth with an awful season in 2005.

13. Atlanta

31-year-old running backs don't repeat career years. It's as true now as it was four paragraphs ago. With 90 fewer carries in 2005 than Tiki Barber had, Dunn isn't as much of a risk to break down physically. Of course, Dunn gives up 20 pounds to Barber and at least 50 to any NFL linebacker, so the carries may affect him disproportionately, and Dunn has set career highs in carries in consecutive years. T.J. Duckett is the bowling ball to Dunn's shuttlecock; with Jerome Bettis retiring, the Falcons probably have both the lightest and the heaviest regularly contributing running backs in the NFL. But Duckett had his worst year as a pro in 2005, so rookie Jerious Norwood could take over as Dunn's primary backup.

Chester Taylor has a huge upside and is looking to break into the Vikings' starting lineup in 2006. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

14. Minnesota

The staff of Football Outsiders has loved Chester Taylor ever since he outplayed Jamal Lewis (on a per-play basis) in 2004 and then again in 2005. He has a lot of upside, especially running behind former Chiefs fullback Tony Richardson. However, this is another team like Chicago, with good depth and some potential but not a lot of top-shelf talent. Last year Mewelde Moore was worth nearly 10 DPAR each as a rusher and as a receiver; if Taylor can establish himself as the starter, Moore would be a superlative third-down back. The Vikings round out the depth chart with Ciatrick Fason and the most euphonious name in the league, Adimchinobe Echemandu. The Minnesota backs have a lot of potential if they can each just find a niche and fill it.

15. Denver

We trust Mike Shanahan. But we just can't trust Ron Dayne. He did look good in limited action last year, posting the second-highest DPAR and fourth-highest DVOA of any running back with fewer than 75 carries. Still, he's Ron Dayne. Tatum Bell shows flashes of greatness, but Shanahan has shown that he doesn't fully trust Bell — in particular, he doesn't want him carrying the ball more than 15 times a game. It was certainly a risk letting Mike Anderson leave for Baltimore, and it shows Shanahan's faith in Dayne. It could always be worse: The Broncos could be relying instead on their 2005 third-round pick. Who was that guy again?

16. New Orleans

So begins the career of Reggie Bush, messiah. It's probably a shock to him to move to a team, and particularly a backfield, that's not as talented as what he had around him at USC. The popular perception is that the Saints didn't really need Bush (though they're glad to have him) because Deuce McAllister is a franchise back. He isn't; he's not consistent enough to help the offense stay on the field and score points. But like Jamal Lewis, McAllister would make one of the best (and least affordable) backup running backs in the league. Aaron Stecker and fullback Mike Karney are excellent complementary pieces.

17. Oakland

While the franchise was collapsing all around him, LaMont Jordan quietly posted the 10th best combined (rushing and receiving) DPAR among all running backs. However, that rank comes with an asterisk. There was a big gap between the top nine elite backs and Jordan, who had just two-thirds as many DPAR as ninth-ranked LaDainian Tomlinson. Jordan also doesn't have the supporting cast that guys like Tomlinson and Clinton Portis enjoy. When short-yardage bruiser Zack Crockett is the second-best back on your team, you have to really hope the best back on your team doesn't get hurt.

18. Miami

This is the Ronnie Brown show. Now that Ricky Williams is gone, the Miami backups are pictured in the Football Outsiders dictionary under "replacement level." But our KUBIAK projection system loves Brown — so much so that we put him on the Pro Football Prospectus 2006 cover. As long as he stays healthy, Brown should be good for over 1,300 yards. And that as much as anything will make Daunte Culpepper's knee feel better.

19. Carolina

We at Football Outsiders don't care for DeShaun Foster. He's an inconsistent boom-or-bust back, mixing his highlight-reel runs with too many runs for approximately zero yards on early downs. But apparently the Panthers do like him, and they've found a way to win with him: the "Pass to Steve Smith" method. Being in unfavorable down-and-distance situations seems almost to play into Jake Delhomme's swashbuckling style of quarterbacking. First-round pick DeAngelo Williams should provide some more consistency, however. If there's one thing you can expect out of the player with the NCAA record for most career all-purpose yards and the fourth-most career rushing yards, it is consistency. A running back's college career just simply isn't long enough to run up huge numbers if he's only playing well half the time.

20. Buffalo

Take the Dolphins prediction, replace "Ronnie Brown" with Willis McGahee, and you basically have the lowdown on the Bills. The differences are slight. Ratchet down the prediction for McGahee a little bit because of that pesky "as long as he stays healthy" proviso. He has some injury history, something about gruesomely blowing out a knee on national television in January, 2003. The one thing the Bills have going for them over the Dolphins is that backup Shaud Williams is young yet and has shown some promise, so he could still turn into a solid backup. With older backups, unless they're Priest Holmes, you know what you've got.

21. Philadelphia

The Eagles are like Chiefs Lite. He's no Larry Johnson, but Brian Westbrook is a very good back in his own right, and he's a perfect fit in Andy Reid's offense. Trouble is, he's a little guy, and he's never been the most durable. The Eagles learned last year how fun it is to try and run their offense through Ryan Moats and Reno Mahe, and they would prefer not to do it again. They don't really have a lot of other options; Correll Buckhalter will never play a full NFL season unless the nymph Thetis dips him in the river Styx — and even then he would probably still hurt his ankle.

22. Dallas

Like the Bears and Vikings, the Cowboys are a team whose running backs are fairly deep but don't show much superstar upside. Julius Jones has a tendency to get banged up, and that tends to get him stowed in Bill Parcells' doghouse. Marion Barber showed some ability as a rookie, but it was the ability to play up to the level of about ... Julius Jones.

23. Cleveland

Everyone takes the success of Reuben Droughns in Cleveland as final clinching proof that Mike Shanahan really knows how to find good running backs. Except Droughns really didn't have that great a season in Cleveland last year, posting just the 39th-best DPAR and 41st-best DVOA. Maybe it's something in the mountain water. It seems to work in Coors commercials. Even on the shores of Lake Erie, Droughns and Lee Suggs, if he can ever stay healthy, could make a decent tandem, and they should be able to do some real damage this year behind the revamped Browns line.

24. St. Louis

Remember the good old days, when everyone wanted the first fantasy draft pick in order to take Marshall Faulk? He averaged over five yards a carry and 10 yards a catch from 1999 through 2001. Now he's a backup and mentor with balky knees, considering retirement. Take a moment to appreciate the greatness that was Marshall Faulk. Too often in our quest to find the next great thing, we don't properly appreciate the last.

Steven Jackson is the next thing, at least for the Rams. He's in that middle tier of good backs with guys like Thomas Jones and Domanick Davis. He seemed a strange fit in St. Louis — a big, powerful back stuck in Mike Martz's offense — so new head coach Scott Linehan may be able to get even more out of him. Faulk should still be a serviceable third-down back if his knees don't betray him, but our advanced stats say that even his receiving value has fallen to league-average levels.

25. Houston

Domanick Davis is a good back, but he's inconsistent. Part of that is a reflection of playing for the god-awful Texans, but he also misses a few games a year to injury and plays banged up a lot of the time. Vernand Morency has much of the same talent as Davis but not as much feel for the game. Davis is a much better receiver. Expect the Texans to use the fullback, newly acquired Jameel Cook, much more than last year. New head coach Gary Kubiak's Broncos ran behind the fullback 80 percent of the time, while the Texans did it just 53 percent of the time last year.

26. Indianapolis

It's one thing to bring in a rookie running back and then design a system around him, like Reggie Bush in New Orleans. It's quite another to bring in a rookie running back, ask him to replace the second-most productive back in football, and require him to fully assimilate a complex, one-back offense using a lot of no-huddle. Joseph Addai has his work cut out for him. One of Edgerrin James' most underrated skills in the Colts offense was his ability to identify and pick up the blitz, which enabled him to stay on the field almost every down.

To the extent Addai can internalize his blocking assignments and learn to read Peyton Manning's chicken dance, he'll enable the offense to run like the well-oiled machine it has been. When he doesn't know what he's doing, markedly less athletic players like Dominic Rhodes and James Mungro will have to come in. That throttles down the offense, and it forces the Colts to huddle to make substitutions when Manning and the coaches may prefer to keep the pressure and pace up. And you know what that means: that patented Peyton Manning bitter beer face. No one wants to see that.

27. Detroit

Football Outsiders is still trying to get the last of the egg off our faces after putting Kevin Jones on the cover of Pro Football Prospectus 2005. Something about making a football omelet comes to mind, but we'll save the elucidation of that metaphor for a more intrepid article. In the meantime, we expect a modest bounce back from Jones. Disappointing as he may have been, opponents still preferred the games he missed. The names Shawn Bryson and Artrose Pinner have never struck fear into the hearts of any NFL defender. A full year with a healthy Cory Schlesinger should provide Detroit a big boost. The Lions run behind the fullback 90 percent of the time, so the running game really missed the lead blocker for much of 2005.

28. Tennessee

It's one thing to bring in a rookie running back that draws comparisons to some of the greatest backs in NFL history. It's quite another to bring in a guy who careened down the draft boards due to an injury at his pro day, a bit of a perceived attitude problem, and a general inability to push away from the table. That doesn't mean LenDale White is no good. It means that he's no lock to be good. And since Chris Brown and Travis Henry are pretty much locks to be about average, the Titans look unlikely to have a particularly good group of running backs this year.

[Edman85]

Continued

29. San Francisco

Cadillac Williams won Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he didn't even have the highest rushing DPAR among rookie running backs. That title belonged to Frank Gore of the lowly 49ers. The Kevan Barlow experiment has been a complete failure, but Gore and Maurice Hicks have the potential to be a serviceable running back pair. Of course, when you have "potential" to be "serviceable," you fall into the range of damning with faint praise. And that's right about 29th out of 32.

30. Jacksonville

All NFL running backs can be considered old at the age of 30, but in terms of physical wear and tear, Fred Taylor is the oldest 30-year-old running back around. Taylor has entered the inevitable decline phase of his career, and while he will probably remain the starter for the Jaguars in 2006, he won't be the most effective rusher. That will be Greg Jones, the man without a position. The team seems to think of him as a fullback, but that title doesn't fit unless he's a fullback in the mold of Mike Alstott circa 1999.

31. Green Bay

If Taylor is the oldest 30-year-old running back in the league, Ahman Green is very clearly the oldest 29-year-old running back in the league. He too has entered the inevitable decline phase of his career. He may experience something of a bounce back, but it will be a stretch for him to get back to 1,000 yards. His longtime fullback William Henderson, a major part of the offense, is 35 and overdue to start fading as well. Najeh Davenport and 2005 surprise Samkon Gado are ready to take the mantle, but each had his shot last year and neither set the frozen tundra on fire. This is yet another team that has depth but lacks any real star power.

32. New York Jets

Curtis Martin is 33, and the inevitable decline phase of his career hit him like a ton of bricks in 2005. Running backs just don't rebound from the kind of season Martin had last year. It's time for the young Jets to step up, but there's not much there. Derrick Blaylock failed to accomplish much of anything in his first year with the team, and rookie Cedric Houston was mediocre. Veteran fullback Jerald Sowell is gone, replaced with B.J. Askew, who has very little experience aside from special teams. It will be easier going for the backs behind first-round offensive linemen D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold, but by midseason the Jets may find themselves wishing they had found a way to get Reggie Bush. The Official Football Outsiders Favorite Rookie, fullback Nick Hartigan, has a better chance of making the roster with New York than just about any other team in the league.

[Edman85]

Recievers/Tight Ends

Ranking the WRs and TEs, team-by-team
Ned Macey / FootballOutsiders.com
Posted: 7 days ago

Our quarterback and running back unit rankings were arguably topped by the team with the best player at that position.

Steve Smith was undisputedly the best receiver in football last, yet Carolina comes in eighth in the wide receiver rankings. This disconnect highlights the uniqueness of wide receivers among the skill positions. As great as Smith was, he was only targeted on 1/3 of all Carolina passes. Wide receivers within a unit are directly responsible for each other's success. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is one of the most efficient receivers in football because of the attention paid to Chad Johnson. Marvin Harrison is aging gracefully because Reggie Wayne keeps defenses honest.

With that in mind, we continue with Football Outsiders' unit-by-unit rankings with wide receivers and tight ends. In the era of tight ends like Antonio Gates and Jason Witten, it would be foolish to isolate tight ends from receivers. Would Eric Parker be able to be productive without the entire secondary keyed on Gates?

Since we'll be rating each unit as it exists in 2006, we're taking into account performance over the last couple of years, but we're also considering age and injuries. Projecting future performance of wide receivers is particularly difficult because of an on-going changing of the guard. Stalwarts like Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Rod Smith, Joe Horn and many other greats are all on the wrong side of 30. Some have seen the start of their decline, while for others it is lurking around the corner. Many of the top teams on this list have key players in this generation. As they continue to age, they may fall quickly from the ranks of the elite.

You'll see a lot of stats you recognize here, and a couple you may not: DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement, and DVOA, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Both stats take every single play during the season and compares it to the league average based on situation and opponent, rewarding players for strong performance on third down and in the red zone and giving them less credit for meaningless gains like a nine-yard catch on third-and-12. The difference: More DPAR means a wide receiver with more total value, while a higher DVOA means a wide receiver with more value per play.

Included in these statistics are all passes intended for a receiver, not just those they catch. Why a quarterback is given all the credit or blame for a completion in traditional stats is beyond us. An incomplete pass to a wide receiver is a bad play, and he should bear some responsibility for failing to connect. This page lists these advanced stats for all wide receivers in 2005, and this page shows tight ends.

1. Dallas

The addition of Terrell Owens is a major reason why the Cowboys are ranked first, but this is far from a one-man show. Terry Glenn provides an excellent deep threat, and Jason Witten may be the game's second best tight end. Throw in the intriguing Patrick Crayton, and this is a complete unit that will confound opposing defenses with its depth and versatility. Despite the talent, the Cowboys have three major question marks. The first is age. Will Owens and Glenn start to decline as they turn 32? Second, with so many options, will there be enough footballs to spread around? And finally, how much will these guys be held back by the mediocrity that surrounds them on the Cowboys' offense?

2. Seattle

For years, no amount of stick ‘em or special gloves allowed the Seahawks' receiving corps to hold onto the ball. Now, it is one of the best in the game. Darrell Jackson doesn't make a lot of noise in the press, but he's emerged as a legitimate No. 1 receiver. The Seahawks paid too much for Nate Burleson, but he should be productive in his return to the No. 2 receiver. Bobby "The First Down Machine" Engram can then slide back into the slot receiver role where he is more comfortable. Last year, Jackson and Engram each caught 69 percent of intended passes, tied with Steve Smith for second in the league. (Behind whom? The answer is below.) Tight end Jerramy Stevens was very productive in the regular season and proved in the Super Bowl that he knows how to get open. D.J. Hackett may be the best fourth receiver in football: Our stats say he had more value last year than any other wide receiver thrown fewer than 50 passes.

3. Indianapolis

In Peyton Manning's record-breaking season, opposing defenses almost always double-teamed Marvin Harrison. As a result, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley were the NFL's two most valuable receivers on a per pass basis. Last season, defenses played the Colts more honestly. As a result, Harrison's production went up slightly, but Wayne's declined a bit and Stokley's fell steeply. Each year Harrison ages, Wayne will see more and more double teams. One way to free up defenses would be to use Dallas Clark more. Clark dominated the middle of the field when he was not kept in to block. Bryan Fletcher was also productive as a second tight end. The loss of Edgerrin James in the passing game could be mitigated by using the talented tight ends.

4. Cincinnati

If Chris Henry is on the field come September, the Bengals may have the best receivers in the league. Chad Johnson is one of the top-five receivers in football. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is one of three receivers to rank in the top 11 in DVOA the past two seasons. Henry is an excellent complement as a deep threat. It often goes unmentioned that he was injured on the same play as Carson Palmer in the playoffs. Without Henry and with the departure of Kevin Walter, the Bengals will have no clear third option. The tight ends provide nothing in the passing game; Matt Schobel was useful on third down, but he's gone to Philadelphia.

5. San Diego

All talk about the Chargers' receiving corps rightfully begins with tight end Antonio Gates, but he is hardly a one-man unit. Keenan McCardell set a career high in touchdowns at the age of 35 and posted a season nearly as impressive as his career-best 2003 campaign. If you are still scratching your head after the Seattle comment, here's your answer: Chargers wideout Eric Parker caught 71 percent of passes thrown to him, leading the NFL's wide receivers in 2005 (minimum 50 targets). The Chargers have no proven third wide receiver: Second-year player Vincent Jackson and former 49er Rashaun Woods will compete for the job. Nonetheless, Chargers WRs/TEs had more DPAR in 2005 than any other team.

6. Arizona

Every team ahead of the Cardinals can put three top weapons on the field. The Cardinals will not be bothered with such trivialities when they feature the top young receiving duo in football: Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Unfortunately, their third young receiver, former first-round pick Bryant Johnson, has been a complete disaster. Last year he ranked 85th out of 89 wide receivers in DVOA, and the year before he ranked 79th out of 84 (minimum 50 passes). The Cardinals have no tight end threat unless rookie Leonard Pope can mature very quickly, and when raiding the Colts' talented receiving corps, Troy Walters isn't a big prize. Still, Boldin and Fitzgerald are studs. Fitzgerald, by the way, already has amassed 161 catches and 18 touchdowns, and he is younger than his "quarterback of the future" Matt Leinart.

7. Kansas City

Tony Gonzalez is the Chiefs' marquee name, but he is no longer their most potent threat. The 30-year-old tight end had his lowest yards per catch since 1999 and only scored two touchdowns. The ageless Eddie Kennison, meanwhile, has become one of the best big play receivers in the league. Samie Parker has developed as a solid third option, and even Dante Hall was useful as a receiver a year ago. The only question with the Chiefs receivers is how much longer Kennison and Gonzalez can remain among the game's elite.

8. Carolina

Lovie Smith may have missed the memo, but everyone else who follows the NFL knows the Panthers only had one receiving option a year ago: Steve Smith. Despite the attention paid him, Smith had an amazing season, leading the league in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He also led the league in DPAR and DVOA, our two primary advanced stats. This off-season, the Panthers added Keyshawn Johnson who may no longer be an upper-echelon receiver but remains an ideal complement to Smith. After those two, however, the pickings are slim. Keary Colbert? Karl Hankton? Drew Carter? Kris Mangum? No thank you.

9. St. Louis

Five years ago, the "Greatest Show on Turf" featured the most feared receivers in football. Now, the Rams have the still-dominant Torry Holt, and not much else. The venerable Isaac Bruce battled injuries a year ago and turns 34. Kevin Curtis is an asset as a third receiver but a liability as a second. One positive change comes at tight end, where the disappointing Brandon Manumaleuna was sent packing. Rookie Joe Klopfenstein will be an upgrade on the field without sacrificing much in the amusing name category.

10. New England

The Patriots are a testament to quantity over quality. Deion Branch is a legitimate number one, but the departure of David Givens leaves them without a known quantity on the other side. Ben Watson and Daniel Graham form the most dangerous tight end duo in football. Troy Brown is capable of holding down the third receiver position. They simply need Reche Caldwell or rookie Chad Jackson to emerge as the second receiver. Look for Caldwell to get playing time early with Jackson overtaking him as the season goes on.

11. Pittsburgh

See New England above, replacing Deion Branch with Hines Ward, and the two tight ends with Heath Miller. Add in Santonio Holmes for Chad Jackson as a talented rookie. The difference is that Troy Brown and Reche Caldwell are more dependable than Cedrick Wilson and Quincy Morgan. Wilson was very productive for San Francisco two years ago, but he caught fewer than half the passes intended for him last season. Also, Holmes has started on the Chris Henry career path, so the tie goes to the Patriots.

12. Oakland

The Raiders are often considered one of the best wide receiving groups in football. Our advanced stats are not so sure. The main problem is Jerry Porter. After his breakthrough as a third receiver in 2002, Porter has posted a below average DVOA in all three of his seasons as a starter. Randy Moss, for all his amazing gifts, has only ranked higher than 18th in DPAR once in the last five years. Nagging injuries like those he suffered last season affect him more than most receivers because his game is so dependent on speed. Doug Gabriel could be an emerging star, and if Ronald Curry can stay healthy, he would be better than the more-heralded converted college quarterback Antwaan Randle El. The tight end position offers nothing special. With Aaron Brooks as the quarterback and these receivers, expect a ton of yards but not a ton of wins.

13. Washington

Speaking of Randle El, he and Brandon Lloyd were the Redskins' additions to help the splendid Santana Moss. Randle El was stretched as a starter last season and returns to his more comfortable slot position this season. Lloyd shows flashes of brilliance but has yet to perform consistently. What the Redskins do boast is Chris Cooley who, despite technically being an H-back, counts as a tight end for our purposes — and he's a talented one at that. In our 2006 statistical projections, he comes out as the second-best tight end for fantasy football purposes, and he's a lot closer to Antonio Gates than you might expect.

14. Denver

The addition of Javon Walker will pay dividends as soon as this year, but he will not be back to 100 percent just one year removed from his ACL injury. Look for better performances from him in 2007. Rod Smith continues to stave off Father Time, but the Ashley Lelie situation is uncertain. The Broncos have an offensive system that features the tight end and yet boasts no tight end worthy of being featured. Stephen Alexander should never leave the line of scrimmage — over the past two years he ranked 34th and 40th in DVOA while ex-teammate Jeb Putzier ranked fourth and 11th. Putzier's replacement, rookie Tony Scheffler, may need a year or two to adjust to the NFL from Western Michigan.

15. New York Giants

Plaxico Burress had 1,214 yards last season. Jeremy Shockey had 891. Yards, however, are a poor barometer of quality. Burress was targeted 166 times, tied for the most in football. Shockey was targeted 122 times, second most among tight ends. Combined, they caught fewer than 50 percent of the passes intended for them, and that's not all the quarterback's fault. (We should note that, according to our stats, Shockey's performance is much more in line with his reputation than Burress' is.) Amani Toomer's best days are behind him. Sinorice Moss may hope to be his brother, but that is about as likely as Eli Manning being as good as his brother.

16. Green Bay

Donald Driver has ranked in the top 15 in DPAR in three of his four seasons as a starter, including his shining performance while the rest of the Packers' offense crumbled around him last year. Unfortunately, he will be on his own again this season. Robert Ferguson should be a third receiver. Marc Boerigter and Rod Gardner are lucky to have NFL jobs. Rookie Greg Jennings is unlikely to be ready for prime time. To compensate for suspect receivers, the Packers have acquired a stable of tight ends. Bubba Franks' best days as a receiver are gone. Donald Lee and David Martin's best days will probably not be too memorable.

17. Minnesota

For proof that head coach Brad Childress learned under Andy Reid, look no further than his decision to try playing the season with little-respected receivers. Travis Taylor, Koren Robinson, Marcus Robinson, and Troy Williamson? The difference between this and Philadelphia is that all four of these players have talent, even if in some cases it has never been fully realized. Meanwhile, Jermaine Wiggins and Jim Kleinsasser form a potent tight end duo, although Wiggins is the one who is a valuable receiver.

18. Baltimore

Catching passes from Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright can be hazardous for your health. Still, Derrick Mason gained the most yards for a Ravens receiver this decade and ranked a respectable 19th in DPAR. He is likely the least-appreciated great receiver of this generation. Todd Heap is widely respected and deserves some of the praise. It is a steep drop after those two. Everyone is convinced Mark Clayton will contribute simply because he is a first-round pick. Just like Rod Gardner, Charles Rogers, Bryant Johnson, and Reggie Williams are sure to work out some day.

19. Atlanta

Like the Lions, the Falcons spent three No. 1 picks on receivers between 2003 and 2005. The 2003 pick was used on an ill-advised trade for Peerless Price. The two later selections, Michael Jenkins and Roddy White, may work out better. Both players are serious breakout candidates, although the organization seems to be favoring White as the better candidate for the number one role. More importantly, unlike the Lions, the Falcons developed other options. They have one of the game's top tight ends in Alge Crumpler. They also picked Brian Finneran off the free talent market and watched him develop into a very dependable receiver. The poor supporting cast excuse will not fly for Mike Vick this year, and it is on him to see if he truly belongs among the upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks.

20. Tampa Bay

Imagine if Joey Galloway and Michael Clayton both had good years at the same time. Move this unit into the top 10. Galloway ranked 11th in DPAR in 2005, while Clayton was fourth in 2004. Unfortunately, Galloway was 40th two seasons ago while Clayton was a dismal 84th last season. What happened to Michael Clayton is one of the great mysteries of 2005 — a few nagging injuries don't fully explain why he was so entirely dropped from the game plan. Rookie Alex Smith showed some promise at tight end, but Ike Hilliard is ready to be put out to pasture.

21. New York Jets

The Jets really fleeced the Redskins when Laveranues Coles demanded a trade out of Washington. That Santana Moss is way too small. Meanwhile, the Jets acquired a good, but not great, receiver to be paired with Justin McCareins, a good but not great receiver. Chris Baker was very valuable in the few looks he got as a receiver. Jerricho Cotchery is intriguing but far from a sure thing.

22. Houston

In 2004, Andre Johnson gained 1,142 yards and averaged 14.5 yards per reception. Last season, he gained 688 yards and averaged 10.9 yards per reception. Which one is the real Johnson? Expecting a repeat of 2004 may be unreasonable, but Johnson is certainly highly talented and likely destined to stardom. The Texans imported Eric Moulds to be their second receiver. Apparently, Andre Reed was unavailable. The more important acquisition may be Jeb Putzier, who provides a solid tight end threat. Further down the depth chart, Derrick Armstrong has posted impressive advanced stats the past two seasons in very limited playing time.

23. Miami

Chris Chambers is a hard player to evaluate. He hints at greatness but appears hampered by poor quarterbacking. His statistics, both advanced and traditional, have never been impressive. He has had an above-average DVOA only once since his rookie season, and last year was the first time he ever gained over 1,000 yards. He is inconsistent and catches a low percentage of passes intended for him. Chambers gained 460 yards in one three-game stretch and never gained 100 in any other game. Despite his obvious talent, he will need to show more to be considered a top receiver. Marty Booker is adequate but not an asset. Randy McMichael has been passed by Crumpler and Witten as emerging tight ends. Wes Welker posted a solid DVOA as a third receiver.

24. Tennessee

The Titans' wide receivers were so bad last year that the team threw over 200 passes to tight ends. While Ben Troupe has talent and Erron Kinney is adequate, the pass direction had much more to do with the lack of options on the outside. Drew Bennett at least is a solid receiver. Adding David Givens gives the Titans a tandem that will not embarrass them. Behind those two, however, is a gaggle of unproven players. Rumors of substantial playing time for Bobby Wade — owner of the lowest DPAR among receivers two years running — speaks to the inadequacy of those options.

25. Cleveland

Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow should form a potent duo in years to come. For 2006, however, both have serious injury concerns. Winslow is ready to play but is one year removed from reconstructive knee surgery. Edwards, who was excellent when on the field in an injury-marred rookie campaign, will be out until mid-season and unlikely to be in form until 2007. Joe Jurevicius is a nice addition, but would fit better as a No. 2 receiver. Dennis Northcutt and Frisman Jackson will not strike fear in opposing secondaries.

26. Jacksonville

Had Jimmy Smith not retired, this group would have ranked in the upper half. Ernest Wilford emerged as an excellent complement to Smith, and Matt Jones had a promising rookie year. Neither is ready to be a No. 1 receiver for a playoff quality team. Reggie Williams, the third receiver, improved immensely in his second season. After being the second worst regular receiver in 2004 according to DVOA, he was 78th out of 89 a year ago. One nice addition is rookie Marcedes Lewis, who will gradually replace Kyle Brady, the second-least productive tight end in football last year (in terms of receiving, not blocking).

27. Detroit

After everybody stopped paying attention to the Lions in Week 4, their head coach benched first-round picks Charles Rogers and Mike Williams in favor of Scottie Vines. Vines is an undrafted player out of Wyoming who is the very definition of "replacement level." Dozens of players on practice squads and the CFL are as good as Vines. The Lions determined he was better than two players drafted in the top 10. This off-season, the Lions added Corey Bradford, the erstwhile third receiver for the 2-14 Texans. He too may push ahead of Rogers and Mike Williams on the depth chart. The struggles of Rogers and Williams obscure the fact that Roy Williams is developing into a quality receiver worthy of his draft status.

28. Philadelphia

The good news is that the Eagles made the NFC Championship game multiple times with James Thrash and Todd Pinkston as receivers. The bad news is that the 2006 unit may be worse. Pinkston should show few effects of the Achilles injury that cost him all of last season and will help provide stability. Reggie Brown flashed potential as a rookie. Greg Lewis will be happy to return to number three receiver. This is a big season for L.J. Smith to show he is an elite tight end. To date, he has been mediocre.

29. New Orleans

Some receivers, such as Jimmy Smith, leave before they hit the wall. Others, like Rod Smith, age gracefully. The third option is to be Joe Horn and just absolutely run into and even through the wall. After a brilliant 2004 campaign, Horn was Reggie Williams-bad last season. Donte' Stallworth had the best year of his career, but it was not enough to overcome Horn's decline. To make matters worse, the Saints have no other contributing receivers. Take the over on Reggie Bush receptions.

30. San Francisco

Antonio Bryant has been productive for two teams, but both have been happy to see him move on to other teams. The 49ers drafted the talented Vernon Davis in the first round, but rookie tight ends rarely make huge impacts. After those two, the cupboard is bare. Meanwhile, former 49ers Brandon Lloyd and Cedrick Wilson are starting for playoff contenders.

31. Buffalo

When Peerless Price is your salvation, your receiving corps is in disarray. Lee Evans' impressive rookie season was followed by a very average sophomore campaign. Josh Reed was supposed to assume the second receiver position in 2003, failed, and will be asked to do so again despite little improvement in his play. It's going to be a long year for the Buffalo passing game.

32. Chicago

Everyone agrees that the Bears needed a wide receiver before last season. The mistake was signing a 32-year-old coming off his first 1,000-yard season in four years. The Bears are stuck with Muhsin Muhammad, who led the league in dropped passes according to the Football Outsiders game-charting project. He has to be better this year, but he'll never match his 2004 career year. Mark Bradley will get the inside track to start thanks to his draft position, but Chicago's most promising receiver may be Bernard Berrian. Tight end Desmond Clark is nothing special as a receiver.

[Edman85]

I'll post the O-Line and Linebackers tommorow. It's good analysis, IMO. Granted, things can get crazy in football where one or two guys go crazy or there is a big variance in health issues with teams.

[cruzer1]

It was good analysis for last year. The Lions offense is probably middle of the pack-ish, but it remains to be seen. As far as ceiling with their QB's are concerned, Dan Orlovsky is probably the QB of the future, and has a good upside. For what it's worth, Mike Martz calls this WR group the best he's ever had.

[BiggieG]

Mirrors.

[RedRamage]

Think they are rating Kitna a little low, but only a little.

Jones I think it rated FAR to low. Last year was the product of a bad coached team that went into the toilet quickly and couldn't, or wouldn't, pull out of it.

I also think that the receivers are rated too low.

[Ozarkruffrider]

Uhhh, no it's not a good analysis. All based on last years production and for the exception of the QB's, it does not take into account any changes made. Since when is Kurt Warner better than Drew Bledsoe? None of this makes sense, except that they look at last years stats and no insight on any changes made to any teams. Brad Johnson down at the bottom???? Waste of time, hope you didn't pay any money for this.

[Ozarkruffrider]

I like this one better by Clark Judge: http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/9582164

ALLEN PARK, Mich. -- The Detroit Lions are halfway through practice when quarterback Jon Kitna takes a snap, retreats several steps, then uncorks a pass to his right -- a perfectly wound spiral that travels 30 yards before hitting Mike Furrey just before he steps out of bounds.

There is nothing extraordinary about the completion ... until what happens afterward.

Kitna turns to pat his center on the back. He shakes hands with his tight end. And he rushes to Furrey to congratulate him, with Kitna grinning as he pulls off his helmet.

So what? So it is everything you didn't see from the Lions a year ago, and I'm not talking about execution. I'm talking about harmony, with the quarterback and his teammates acting as if they actually belong together -- or, as they did not in 2005.

Of course, those were the days of Joey Harrington, and I don't know why he didn't fit in with the Lions or why coaches disliked the guy. All I know is that he's gone, and the Lions ... and Harrington ... are better for it.

Now they're in the hands of Kitna, who served the last two years as Carson Palmer's caddy in Cincinnati, and having him here is a good thing. In fact, it could be a very good thing.

Forget that he has the trust of a coaching staff. What's critical is that he's liked and admired by teammates who tired of Harrington. The difference is that they see Kitna as one of them -- someone who is tough, resilient, competitive and determined to do the right thing.

"What I like about him, more than the fact that he's bright, is that he's confident," said new head coach Rod Marinelli. "He knows how to lead, and the No. 1 thing this team needs is directional leadership."

That is what makes Kitna the right man at the right moment for Detroit. The Lions were short in the leadership department until Marinelli stepped into the picture, hired two top-notch coordinators -- Mike Martz and Donnie Henderson -- and put the club on alert that he would tolerate no nonsense.

"Coach Marinelli doesn't let any little thing go," said Kitna. "There is nothing that will handle itself; he handles it right up front."

He proved it by hiring Kitna and firing Harrington, and what a difference. The black cloud that hung over this franchise much of last season has lifted -- and maybe it's only because it's training camp -- but players, coaches and front-office staff seem more comfortable with the new order.

Maybe Marinelli's style flies. Maybe it doesn't. But it's worth a try, especially if it has players rallying around the quarterback.

"I'm glad we have a veteran guy here," cornerback Dre' Bly said of Kitna. "He's more of a leader. Guys seem to respond well to him, and that's what has to happen for you to be a winning team or a playoff team."

Wait a minute, did he say playoff team? The last time the Lions won anything was 2000 when they were 9-7. The last time they were in the playoffs was 1999. But if the Detroit Tigers can jump to the top of the major league standings, I guess anything's possible.

"Can we reach the playoffs?" said Bly. "Damn right, because we have the talent. The same thing happened to us in St. Louis when I got drafted (1999). The year before we were 4-12, and we were able to turn it around just like that because we believed and we were prepared. This is the same situation. We have the playmakers."

But it's not a shortage of playmakers that handicapped the Lions. As Kitna pointed out, "It's not about talent; it's about attitude and having 53 guys pulling together."

That's where the Lions belly-flopped a year ago, with the coaching staff and front office in a tug-of-war over Harrington.

The results were predictable. The club swooned, players griped and coaches were fired. Now there's peace and stability, with Marinelli announcing at the beginning of camp that he was committed to one quarterback ... and it was Kitna.

"From day one, he told us how it was going to be," said Bly. "Either we were going to abide by his rules or we weren't going to be here. We're not going to slow up and wait for guys; we're going to keep moving -- and that's a difference from the past.

"'Mooch' (Marinelli's predecessor, coach Steve Mariucci) won in San Francisco, but I guess that system wasn't meant for the guys we have. I love 'Mooch.' But I'm a veteran guy, and the older you get the more you understand what you need to do to prepare. With Coach Marinelli he doesn't sugarcoat anything. It's his way or the highway, and that's what we need."

They could also use a quarterback who makes plays, something that hasn't happened in years. Look at the history of the position here. Any idea how many times the Lions produced a Pro Bowl quarterback since Bobby Layne in the 1950s? Try once. Greg Landry in 1972.

Kitna doesn't have to be a Pro Bowler. All he must do is act as a compass for others to follow. I don't know if he does, but I know he can. He helped resurrect the hapless Cincinnati Bengals in 2003, with the club producing a non-losing season for the first time in seven years.

Coaches there were sad to see him leave this year, and Detroit's Martz is so happy with his play he can't quit rhapsodizing about him.

"This is his moment," Martz said. "He's everything I want in a quarterback. I'd ride him into the sunset."

He'd rather ride him to the playoffs. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think there's a chance -- and not just because of Jon Kitna. But because of what Marinelli has accomplished already in a few months, exorcising a sad-sack mentality and replacing it with accountability, precision and --- dare we say it? -- teamwork.

Imagine. Hey, if it can work for Jim Leyland, why not Rod Marinelli? "There's pressure on my shoulders," said Kitna, "but not because of the history or legacy of this team. It's because you're the starting quarterback, and whatever you do everyone is living with you.

"You can say whatever you want, whatever you do you're taking everyone with you -- and I love that. If you don't want that you shouldn't play quarterback. I know there are some guys like that, but that's not me.

"My faith means a lot to me, and I really believe God used my first 10 years in the league to prepare me for this situation. Two years ago I wouldn't have been ready for this situation and what they're asking me to do; not to abuse the freedom they give me and to be the leader they ask me to be. Now I can't wait to go out there and play and finish the process that was started."

[Shinzaki]

I'd rank Atlanta a bit higher. Vick is still rough around the edges, but coordinators pull their hair out scheming a defense for him and Schaub is a guy that a number of teams were looking at trading for to groom as a starter.

I'd rank Pittsburgh higher too, but then I'm a MAC whore. (One thing that bothers me aboutthe eval of Pittsburgh is the notion that Jacobs needed another year in college. The biggest knock on him was that he played in a gimmick offense against weaker competition. How would playing another year in a gimmick offense against weak opposition help him?)

[Edman85]

It's not based on last year. It says, these stats from last year can be found here, but "here" in this case is a link that didn't make it through the system.

So you guys honestly think that Kitna and co. are an above average QB unit?

[cruzer1]

Originally Posted by Edman85

It's not based on last year. It says, these stats from last year can be found here, but "here" in this case is a link that didn't make it through the system.

So you guys honestly think that Kitna and co. are an above average QB unit?

Depth-wise, absolutely. Anybody who puts Kevin Jones at the bottom, then mentions Pinner as a backup instead of Calhoun or Arlen Harris, is talking about last year. Kevin Jones is a top 10 back in the NFL. Roy Williams is a top 10 WR.

[RedRamage]

I think Kitna is better than 24th of 32. Probably not higher than 20th... As a Lions fan, I looked at the list of starting QBs above our ranking and asked myself: Would I rather have him or Kitna? I answered yes for most people, but I said no for the following:

Kurt Warner
Steve McNair
David Carr

[Edman85]

Originally Posted by cruzer1

Kevin Jones is a top 10 back in the NFL.

If you say so...

[flbob]

Originally Posted by Edman85

It's not based on last year. It says, these stats from last year can be found here, but "here" in this case is a link that didn't make it through the system.

So you guys honestly think that Kitna and co. are an above average QB unit?

it's summertime, baby. the kitti...uh, lions are sb bound!

[Buddha]

I think they're underrating Kevin Jones and not taking into account the awful play calling last season and the average to below average offensive line. Not to mention the lack of fear in the passing game with Joey back there.

That being said, the fact that we've drafted receivers in the top 10 three years in a row (until this year obviously) and are ranked as a unit in the bottom 10 says a lot about the talent evaluation skills of Matt Millen.

And yes, I realize these kind of lists are pretty dumb and, as much as they may deny it, obviously based on last year's statistics. But the fact that Vines, Martinez, Furrey and the like are beating out Mike WIlliams and Charles Rogers says a lot about Matt Millen. Most GMs would have been fired for screwing up 2 #1 picks. Much less three like Millen has.

[Euphdude]

Originally Posted by Buddha

I think they're underrating Kevin Jones and not taking into account the awful play calling last season and the average to below average offensive line. Not to mention the lack of fear in the passing game with Joey back there.

That being said, the fact that we've drafted receivers in the top 10 three years in a row (until this year obviously) and are ranked as a unit in the bottom 10 says a lot about the talent evaluation skills of Matt Millen.

And yes, I realize these kind of lists are pretty dumb and, as much as they may deny it, obviously based on last year's statistics. But the fact that Vines, Martinez, Furrey and the like are beating out Mike WIlliams and Charles Rogers says a lot about Matt Millen. Most GMs would have been fired for screwing up 2 #1 picks. Much less three like Millen has.

Your lack of respect for Millens clearly shows that you are unintelligent. Salu!

[RedRamage]

Enough Euphdude... we don't need to instigate verbal battles, we get enough of those on our own.

Now, as to 'screwing up' 2 #1 picks, it's hard to say how much of this is Millen and how much of it was due to something else. If I recall correctly, Rogers was VERY highly rated coming out of college. I don't think anyone was really saying that he wasn't worthy of being picked as high as he was. If everyone in the media and in the NFL generally considered him a top 5 guy, can you really point fingers directly as Millen and say that he screwed the pooch on it?

Same with BMW. He was widely considered a very good player who was very worthy of a high pick. Again, I'm relying on a faulty memory here, but didn't many projections have him gone before the Lions picked? Now, on BMW I think some critizism can be leveled at Millen for getting a third WR with their 1st pick in three years. But I remember Mel Kiper Jr. calling BMW the best player in the draft, so the even calling Millen a bad scout is hard for me to do here.

[RedRamage]

On a side note, I do think it's interesting that when Millen was first hired and conducted seemingly good drafts Millen detractors wanted to chaulk it up to Bill Tobin making the draft picks, not Millen. Now that the picks are starting to look bad, now it's was Millen's fault.

[Buddha]

Originally Posted by RedRamage

Enough Euphdude... we don't need to instigate verbal battles, we get enough of those on our own.

Now, as to 'screwing up' 2 #1 picks, it's hard to say how much of this is Millen and how much of it was due to something else. If I recall correctly, Rogers was VERY highly rated coming out of college. I don't think anyone was really saying that he wasn't worthy of being picked as high as he was. If everyone in the media and in the NFL generally considered him a top 5 guy, can you really point fingers directly as Millen and say that he screwed the pooch on it?

Same with BMW. He was widely considered a very good player who was very worthy of a high pick. Again, I'm relying on a faulty memory here, but didn't many projections have him gone before the Lions picked? Now, on BMW I think some critizism can be leveled at Millen for getting a third WR with their 1st pick in three years. But I remember Mel Kiper Jr. calling BMW the best player in the draft, so the even calling Millen a bad scout is hard for me to do here.

GMs are paid to know when those talent evaluators are full of it and when they're not. They also, presumably, know information about the players that laymen like us (and Mel Kiper too) don't know. Like if the guy is pot head or a lazy POS or a fruit loop from Oregon.

The GM also picks the coach and hopefully sets the agenda for the team. It's his team. He has to make the pieces fit. If he's drafting pieces that are nice and shiny on the outside that "everyone" says look really neat, but that are really rotten to the core behind that shiny exterior, that's on him.

The buck stops with Millen. All failures are laid at the door of upper management. That's their job. They're accountable.

I lay the blame ultimately on Millen. He's in charge.

[Edman85]

Bingo, Buddha. No excuses can be made after five years. Any failures of the coaching staffs and players during that time eventually works its way up to Millen.

My question is, if there is so much "talent," why isn't that translating into success? Point to poor coaching all you want, but Mariucci didn't stand in the way of good San Fran teams.

[Ozarkruffrider]

Well, if we are going to hijack another topic talking on Millen, I'm outta here.
If we are going to talk about rating the Lions in respect to the rest of the league, fine. What did everyone think of Clark Judge's analysis?

[Edman85]

Honestly, I thought it was a typical preseason fluff piece... It's not analysis when it's simply a conglomeration of people associated with the team.

[Buddha]

Originally Posted by Ozarkruffrider

If we are going to talk about rating the Lions in respect to the rest of the league, fine. What did everyone think of Clark Judge's analysis?

Fluff. Go back to last year and you can find the same thing written before training camp. I don't see much analysis in it other than, "the people are different this year and the guy who is gone is the problem."

They wrote the same thing when Scott Mitchell left town.

[pyrotigers]

RBs are ranked far too low, the QB and WR look right, I thought the QBs might be lower actually.

[lesgoblu02]

Originally Posted by RedRamage

Now, as to 'screwing up' 2 #1 picks, it's hard to say how much of this is Millen and how much of it was due to something else. If I recall correctly, Rogers was VERY highly rated coming out of college. I don't think anyone was really saying that he wasn't worthy of being picked as high as he was. If everyone in the media and in the NFL generally considered him a top 5 guy, can you really point fingers directly as Millen and say that he screwed the pooch on it?

I have always had a gut feeling that had Charles Rogers went to school anywhere but the state of Michigan, we would have Andre Johnson opposite Roy Williams. Publicity ploy gone wayyyyyy wrong.

Originally Posted by RedRamage

Same with BMW. He was widely considered a very good player who was very worthy of a high pick. Again, I'm relying on a faulty memory here, but didn't many projections have him gone before the Lions picked? Now, on BMW I think some critizism can be leveled at Millen for getting a third WR with their 1st pick in three years. But I remember Mel Kiper Jr. calling BMW the best player in the draft, so the even calling Millen a bad scout is hard for me to do here.

Every time I see a Chiefs game, I die a little inside. That and I want to throw up. The fact that this team was well below average defensively and couldn't stay healthy, then Millen takes Mike F'n Williams makes me want to seriously injure someone.

[Hongbit]

Originally Posted by cruzer1

Depth-wise, absolutely. Anybody who puts Kevin Jones at the bottom, then mentions Pinner as a backup instead of Calhoun or Arlen Harris, is talking about last year. Kevin Jones is a top 10 back in the NFL. Roy Williams is a top 10 WR.

He didn't do enough homework as there is no debate what the RB depth chart as of today is:

Kevin Jones
Arlen Harris
Brian Calhoun
Soon to be ex-Lion Artose Pinner

Originally Posted by Cruzer1

Kevin Jones is a top 10 back in the NFL. Roy Williams is a top 10 WR

That's the super homer Cruzer that we've all come to know and love. Both of these guys have the potential to have this label after this season. Neither has it right now. KJ is actually pretty close and possibly an argument can be made for the 9 or 10 spot. No argument can be made for Roy right now. Way too inconsistant to this point. He has the ability to be more than just a top 10 WR. His upside is becoming the top WR in the league but he's not close to this yet.

[pape06]

The fact of the matter is that this team has the talent to win, but was hampered by way too conservative play calling and a hesitant quarterback the last 4-5 years. Much like the Tigers, once we have real leadership, which we now do, this team will win. Probably not the best team in the bigs, but then again before the season were anybody's realistic expectations for the Tigers to lead the league by almost ten wins almost 2/3 into the season?

[Edman85]

Originally Posted by pape06

The fact of the matter is that this team has the talent to win

I keep hearing that, but you would think that talent would show up at sometime. Maybe this "talent" I keep hearing about doesn't actually exist, or is a misconception due to the fact that Millen drafts guys at skill positions and almost neglects the offensive line.

[pape06]

Originally Posted by Edman85

I keep hearing that, but you would think that talent would show up at sometime. Maybe this "talent" I keep hearing about doesn't actually exist, or is a misconception due to the fact that Millen drafts guys at skill positions and almost neglects the offensive line.

It isn't that he ignores the offensive line, he has just made poor decisions. Signing Woody to that ridiculous deal was a mistake given that he had just undergone reconstructive knee surgery and then let him show up to camp way overweight, and has signed players like Demulling that did not fit the scheme. Martz is the right guy to turn around this offense, and our defense is already there, just needs to make sure we have safeties that play their position right, and don't let anybody get behind them. I think with Marinelli's discipline we won't see those types of mistakes.

[cruzer1]

Originally Posted by Edman85

I keep hearing that, but you would think that talent would show up at sometime. Maybe this "talent" I keep hearing about doesn't actually exist, or is a misconception due to the fact that Millen drafts guys at skill positions and almost neglects the offensive line.

LT- Jeff Backus 1st Rounder
LG- Ross Verba 1st Rounder
C- Dominic Raiola 2nd Rounder
RG- Damien Woody 1st Rounder
RT- Rex Tucker 3rd Rounder

[Ozarkruffrider]

Originally Posted by Buddha

Fluff. Go back to last year and you can find the same thing written before training camp. I don't see much analysis in it other than, "the people are different this year and the guy who is gone is the problem."

They wrote the same thing when Scott Mitchell left town.

yeah, right---link, please? It looks like to me that with some of you guys there is no analysis that is good unless it says "Lions suck". Pretty jaded way of thinking.

I was comparing Judges analysis as being a whole lot more up-to-date than Fox's.

[cruzer1]

I consider all analysis BS until they play the games.

[Edman85]

Originally Posted by cruzer1

LT- Jeff Backus 1st Rounder
LG- Ross Verba 1st Rounder
C- Dominic Raiola 2nd Rounder
RG- Damien Woody 1st Rounder
RT- Rex Tucker 3rd Rounder

So we are basing "talent" on when a player was drafted. May as well go snag Tim Couch and Jim Drunkenmiller to play quarterback, as they are talented. Besides, only Backus and Raiola were drafted by the Lions. Verba and Tucker have washed out and are afterthoughts at this point. Regardless, there still isn't much in the way of depth behind them. That is just as important.

[cruzer1]

Originally Posted by Edman85

So we are basing "talent" on when a player was drafted. May as well go snag Tim Couch and Jim Drunkenmiller to play quarterback, as they are talented. Besides, only Backus and Raiola were drafted by the Lions. Verba and Tucker have washed out and are afterthoughts at this point. Regardless, there still isn't much in the way of depth behind them. That is just as important.

Verba is still highly thought of in the league. He got a lot of money because he can also play LT. Depth wise, they're pretty deep, with Jonathon Scott, Barrie Stokes, Rick Demulling, Kelly Butler, Fred Matua, etc. They also have a great deal of versatility when they can move Verba over to LT in case anything happens to Backus, who plays every play anyways. The Lions had problems in the past with LG and RT. They should be in much better shape now. They also never got much help blocking from the TE position, which is also much improved with Dan Campbell, one of the best blocking TE's in football.

[Edman85]

Is Dan Campbell really one of the best blocking TE's in football, or is he just thought of that because he can't catch or run?

[Hongbit]

Once again, having talent and being a good NFL player are not the same thing. Talent is just one of many variables. Intelligence, work effort, and health are a few others. Players that have all four usually turn into stars. 3 of 4 can still be pretty decent players. Anything less is a quick exit from the league.

[cruzer1]

Originally Posted by Edman85

Is Dan Campbell really one of the best blocking TE's in football, or is he just thought of that because he can't catch or run?

The reason he's been in the NFL is because of his blocking.

[Edman85]

Originally Posted by cruzer1

The reason he's been in the NFL is because of his blocking.

I agree that he is a good-great blocker, but this isn't a good reason. The reason he's been in the NFL is that he's percieved as a good blocker. That does not mean he's actually a good blocker.