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    Default BCS Bowls... Michgian could make it, but MSU couldn't?!?




    Okay, I'm not a huge college football fan, so maybe I'm missing something here, but I heard that if MSU loses the championship game, they could easily be out of a shot at a BCS bowl, but Michigan could still be in it.

    This isn't about UofM or MSU... I'm not partial to either, it just that they are in the situation so I'm using them as the example. And I understand that if MSU loses, they are 10-3 vs. Michigan being 10-2. But really... come on... who had the better season?

    Who won the head-to-head match up?
    Who won the division?
    Who played in the conference championship game?

    These seems like such a joke to me. It's like saying: Sorry, you were good enough to be in the championship game, but you lost that, so this other team that you beat and wasn't in the championship will get placed ahead of you. Now, if you'd like declined to play in the Championship game, then you would've been ahead of them, but you didn't... so, sorry.

    That just seems so messed up to me.

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    Well Michigan will have 2 losses and MSU 3 in that scenario and the two are similarly ranked already. Plus MSU played Michigan at home. It's not that crazy/unusual to me.

    And it's nothing new. Look what happens to LSU if lose to Georgia, there is a chance they could fall behind Bama, who they beat, and not only be out of the title game but out of the BCS altogether.

    Same thing could happen if Oregon loses to UCLA (which would be unlikely), Stanford would pass them in the pecking order, who they beat and didn't make the conference title game.

    Or look what happens if LSU wins and has a rematch with Bama in title game and loses. LSU will have played Bama twice, once AT Bama and once at a neutral site. They would be 1-1 against them without playing a home game yet Bama would be the national championship (the same thing happened to FSU in '96 v. Florida).

    Stuff like this happens all the time.
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    MSU also got thumped in their two losses.

    Not saying it's right, but it's the system "everyone" wants.


    For the record, I also don't think UM should be in a BCS game.
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    It's what happens when champions are decided off the field. In my opinion, college football has the best regular season and worst post season of all major sports.

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    Beyond the national title game, conference winners, Notre Dame, and non-AQ conference winners (Houston), the bowls can pick who they want just like always. So the Sugar Bowl can pick Michigan or Boise State or OkSt/Okla over Michigan State if they want, assuming both are top 14.

    The BCS sucks, but don't blame it for this one. Blame the Sugar Bowl (or whatever bowl might pick M).
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    Quote Originally Posted by Who is the Drizzle? View Post
    Beyond the national title game, conference winners, Notre Dame, and non-AQ conference winners (Houston), the bowls can pick who they want just like always. So the Sugar Bowl can pick Michigan or Boise State or OkSt/Okla over Michigan State if they want, assuming both are top 14.

    The BCS sucks, but don't blame it for this one. Blame the Sugar Bowl (or whatever bowl might pick M).
    I expect a 10-3 Michigan State to be ranked outside the top 14.

    But even theoretically, lets say Michigan finishes 10-2 and #13. Michigan State is 10-3 and #14, I would expect say the Sugar Bowl to pick Michigan over State, so I agree with you there
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    Well, the BCS would be at fault because the Top 14 requirment would eliminate Michigan State, but make Michigan eligible...
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    Michigan State doesn't have much of a gripe if you ask me. They will be outside the top 14, were barely in top 14 even before this game. They have a chance to win and be in.

    The biggest gripes to me are Arkansas (#8) and Kansas State (#11) and Boise State (#7). They will all finish in the top 10, yet none of them are going to end up in BCS games because either they are a smaller school or are blocked by BCS rules.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Who is the Drizzle? View Post
    Beyond the national title game, conference winners, Notre Dame, and non-AQ conference winners (Houston), the bowls can pick who they want just like always. So the Sugar Bowl can pick Michigan or Boise State or OkSt/Okla over Michigan State if they want, assuming both are top 14.

    The BCS sucks, but don't blame it for this one. Blame the Sugar Bowl (or whatever bowl might pick M).
    Okay... well this makes at least a little more sense... I guess.

    So the Sugar Bowl could decide to take, say Penn State, over Michigan even though Penn State has a worse record? (Again, nothing about the schools here, just an example.) They might decide to do it for any number of reasons (better fan following, some controversy at the university (obviously would work opposite in my example). Again, seems messed up to me... if this is the spot of honor (a BCS Bowl game) you are giving it to someone based on something other than performance on the field, but at least it's understood that that is why it happened.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Edman85 View Post
    Well, the BCS would be at fault because the Top 14 requirment would eliminate Michigan State, but make Michigan eligible...
    It wouldn't really be the BCS fault for two reasons

    1. I expect both human polls would also rate Michigan over State
    2. Even with no BCS, Id expect a bowl to take Michigan over State especially one that is ranked higher.

    So the BCS rule does not make a difference in this case to me
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Mac View Post
    Michigan State doesn't have much of a gripe if you ask me. They will be outside the top 14, were barely in top 14 even before this game. They have a chance to win and be in.
    So really, it's would be in Michigan State's best interest, from a bowl stand point, to not play in the Championship game.

    Seems messed up to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RedRamage View Post
    So really, it's would be in Michigan State's best interest, from a bowl stand point, to not play in the Championship game.

    Seems messed up to me.
    No, not at all

    Look at it this way

    Michigan State can control their destiny. They have an opportunity to win and be in the Rose Bowl.

    If they weren't in it and in Michigan's shoes. They would have to sit and wait and hope other things happen and hope they get picked.

    State controls their own destiny, I dont get how that is a disadvantage. Especially with the stigma the Rose Bowl has in Big Ten country. They can play in the Rose Bowl still, Michigan cant.
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    I also don't get the assumption around here that MSU loses.

    Instead of complaining about how Michigan can get in, than can get in easier. Just beat Wisconsin, that is it. Beat Wisconsin and you are in.
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    It's not a perfect system, but I prefer the Championship game then having 25% of the conference claiming they are conference champions. The second place team might get slightly screwed, but at least there is a champion being crowned. And second place team had their chance to win, so their complaints dont hold as much weight to me, because they had their shot.
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    Look at it this way. The top 14 in BCS can be picked for BCS Bowl Games which will be 10 teams. #1-v-#2 in the Championship game, Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl. Most of the BCS slots are based on winning your League, ect leaving with 2 teams at Large bid (Unless the same league gets #1 and #3 and has a third team in the top 14 that can be picked). So there are 8 of 14 teams LOCKED into the BCS, leaving 6 teams who can be picked. If you're a BCS bowl do you take a team that has HUGE national appeal or a smaller school with a better record? That is the problem with the BCS if you believe it's a problem.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedRamage View Post
    Okay... well this makes at least a little more sense... I guess.

    So the Sugar Bowl could decide to take, say Penn State, over Michigan even though Penn State has a worse record?

    If PSU were in the top 14 of the BCS, then yes, they could do that.
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    It's not "the bcs" that is doing this. It is the sugar bowl or fiesta bowl. Their interest is in selecting whatever qualified team they want based on certain criteria.

    Assuming for a moment that msu and mich are both 10-2 and neither one is in the championship game, what should the bowl do?

    Michigan had wins over Nebraska (big), nd (close), osu (close) and losses to Iowa (close) and msu (close or moderate depending on how you want to view it).

    Msu had wins over wisc (close), Michigan (depends), Iowa (big) and osu (close against a worse version) and losses to Nebraska (big) and nd (big).

    The sugar or fiesta could look at those resumes and come to the conclusion that Michigan, based on their entire body of work, is the better team. Maybe they would be wrong. The point is that these bowls don't care about conference record. When you include nd, the overall records are the same. Michigan could easily be 12-0. Msu at best could be 10-2.

    That is also reflected in various computer records that take margin of victory and defeat into account, most of which have Michigan ahead of msu.

    Deciding on the best overall team based on a single game would be folly. The m-msu game was not a sugar bowl qualification playoff. It was one game out of 12. I'm not taking anything away from state based on that game. They have the trophy. I'm just saying there are no tiebreakers for bowl selection as an at large.
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    Once you get past the selection rules, the BCS is a beauty pageant. Michigan is still a much bigger TV draw than MSU, so even if MSU was eligible to be selected, Michigan would be chosen.

    Would you really rather play Houston in your bowl game? As a Michigan fan, I know I'd rather see them play Arkansas, even if it means they're not in the BCS.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edman85 View Post
    Well, the BCS would be at fault because the Top 14 requirment would eliminate Michigan State, but make Michigan eligible...
    Actually, at this point the top 14 requirement is more likely to 'screw' Michigan than Michigan State.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedRamage View Post
    So really, it's would be in Michigan State's best interest, from a bowl stand point, to not play in the Championship game.

    Seems messed up to me.
    I suppose if MSU loses and M moves above them into #14 you could say that in theory, as otherwise M would not be eligible. But if both teams end at 10-2 and both are in the top 14, M is going to get picked, I'm fairly confident of that.

    Of course, if the game isn't played MSU goes to the Rose Bowl :-/
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sparks4Ever View Post
    Once you get past the selection rules, the BCS is a beauty pageant. Michigan is still a much bigger TV draw than MSU, so even if MSU was eligible to be selected, Michigan would be chosen.

    Would you really rather play Houston in your bowl game? As a Michigan fan, I know I'd rather see them play Arkansas, even if it means they're not in the BCS.
    Yep, if LSU wins Saturday, and no other upsets, you would have the 6 conference winners, Houston, Alabama, and Stanford as automatic locks. Beyond that, you would have 5-6 teams left in the top 14 to choose from for the 1 at-large bid with no SEC or PAC-12 teams eligible.

    Choice would be between 4 teams: Boise St., Ok/OkSt loser, Kansas State, Michigan (or Baylor if they jump M).
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    Its a money grabbing joke.


    Brad Edwards think Michigan is out either way, and Michigan fans should root for LSU, Texas, and....MSU.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Mac View Post
    I also don't get the assumption around here that MSU loses.

    Instead of complaining about how Michigan can get in, than can get in easier. Just beat Wisconsin, that is it. Beat Wisconsin and you are in.
    Yeah, "just" beat Wisconsin. For the third time in two years. While Michigan doesn't even have to play Wisconsin. And didn't beat MSU.

    Don't make this sound merit based, its not at all. The discussion begins and ends with $$$.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedRamage View Post
    So really, it's would be in Michigan State's best interest, from a bowl stand point, to not play in the Championship game.

    Seems messed up to me.
    That is only true if:

    a. One values all BCS bowls equivalently and puts no weight on playing the the Rose Bowl and winning the Big Ten, and

    b. if you have a scenario where:

    • b1. the 2nd place team would fall behind the 3rd place team in the BCS with the Championship game loss,
      b2. the 2nd place team falls out of the top 14 teams in the country because of the Championship game loss, and
      b3. the 2nd place team has less appeal from the Bowl planners' POV than the 3rd place team in the conference.


    I personally think winning the Big 10 and playing in the Rose Bowl carries more to much more cache than playing in a BCS bowl. It doesn't mean much to me personally (and I suspect from a recruit's standpoint as well) whether UM plays in the Sugar Bowl and MSU plays in the Capital One Bowl. They are just exhibition games with a huge payday, nothing more. The term 'BCS Bowl' is pretty arbitrary, frankly. Winning the Big Ten, that carries more cache, IMO.

    As to the other conditions - how often is that really going to happen in the Big Ten? Things have to fall a very specific way for all of that to happen, so it is hard for me to bag on it or worry about it too much. It really says to me there is not much separating #2 and #3, to be honest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RedRamage View Post
    So really, it's would be in Michigan State's best interest, from a bowl stand point, to not play in the Championship game.

    Seems messed up to me.
    Exactly. Skip the championship game, get a BCS berth (we're top 14 of BCS right now). Play in the championship game, and you have a >50% chance (higher, if you count the point spread) of not playing in the BCS.

    *** backwards.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpartanValor View Post
    Its a money grabbing joke.
    The bowls, as a group, have always been money grabbing jokes.

    They are just glorified exhibition games that tell us relatively little about the quality of teams participating in them, and very few impact the National Championship.

    That a large percentage of fans put as much weight into them as they seem to do probably says more about fans as a group than anything.
    Last edited by Mr. Bigglesworth; 11-29-2011 at 02:19 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpartanValor View Post
    Yeah, just beat Wisconsin. For the third time in two years. While Michigan doesn't even have to play Wisconsin. And didn't beat MSU.

    Don't make this sound merit based, its not at all. The discussion begins and ends with $$$.
    Hmm, sounds a lot like last year, where MSU didn't have to play OSU and yet MSU thought that system was unfair. And MSU also beat Wisconsin both times at home. It is more merit based than you make it sound.

    And State should be cheering for Michigan to make it, if they dont Michigan has a good chance of getting picked by the Cap One bowl over MSU, knocking MSU all the way down to the Outback.
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    So MSU didn't like how it was set up last year without a championship game and claimed they got screwed

    Now they are saying they are getting screwed this year by having to play in a championship game?

    Stop complaining and just go win the title game.....geeze
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    No matter what the system is, it is possible for a team to be screwed by the system.

    I guess that is the lesson here. There is no perfect machine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Mac View Post
    Hmm, sounds a lot like last year, where MSU didn't have to play OSU and yet MSU thought that system was unfair. And MSU also beat Wisconsin both times at home. It is more merit based than you make it sound.

    And State should be cheering for Michigan to make it, if they dont Michigan has a good chance of getting picked by the Cap One bowl over MSU, knocking MSU all the way down to the Outback.
    Last year MSU beat Wisconsin who beat OSU. I only wish we could have played OSU. Then we would have had a chance in the BS tiebreaker scenarios.

    And if we lose we're headed to outback anyway I don't see your point.
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    I would prefer to be playing for the Big Ten championship and a Rose Bowl berth with the knowledge that a loss would knock my team out of a BCS bowl and send my rival who did not qualify for the championship game to a BCS bowl.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Mac View Post

    Stop complaining and just go win the title game.....geeze
    While other teams sit and home and watch someone else win a game for them....
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpartanValor View Post
    Last year MSU beat Wisconsin who beat OSU. I only wish we could have played OSU. Then we would have had a chance in the BS tiebreaker scenarios.

    And if we lose we're headed to outback anyway I don't see your point.
    If Michigan makes the BCS, why wouldn't MSU go to Cap One? Doesn't it pick before Outback?
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpartanValor View Post
    Last year MSU beat Wisconsin who beat OSU.
    Does history tell us beating a team who beat a team a good gauge for determining who would win in a head to head match-up?

    Quote Originally Posted by SpartanValor View Post
    I only wish we could have played OSU. Then we would have had a chance in the BS tiebreaker scenarios.
    This seems inconsistent. You wish you could play OSU last year, but don't wish to play UW this year?

    Forgive me for suggesting the following, but it sounds an awful lot like you wanted the OSU game because you had nothing to lose then, but don't want the UW game because you perceive to have something to lose now.

    Quote Originally Posted by SpartanValor View Post
    And if we lose we're headed to outback anyway I don't see your point.
    I think his point is if MSU loses and UM goes to a BCS Bowl, then MSU would likely be selected for the Capital One Bowl. Or are you thinking Nebraska or PSU get that?
    Last edited by Mr. Bigglesworth; 11-29-2011 at 02:40 PM.

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    And aren't bowl game payouts divided amongst the teams in the conference? So it realistically is Michigan or no one in a 2nd BCS spot for Big Ten. And the Bowl payout difference between a 2nd BCS bowl and whatever bottom end bowl they would go to instead is significant (Michigan in BCS bumps every team up, either getting an extra team in or the bottom team not playing in like the Pizza Bowl)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Mac View Post
    I also don't get the assumption around here that MSU loses.

    Instead of complaining about how Michigan can get in, than can get in easier. Just beat Wisconsin, that is it. Beat Wisconsin and you are in.
    I'm not assuming that MSU loses. I'm just saying if they lose it seems odd to me that they would then be ranked lower than a team that wasn't good enough to get into the Championship game.

    I'm guess I've stuck seeing it from a playoff stand point, and I shouldn't because there isn't a playoff system in college football. Here's two situations to try and compare it too:

    Let's say the Lions end up with the same or a slightly better record than the Bears and they make it to the playoffs while the Bears don't. They are lose their first playoff game. If you ranked the teams now, would there be any way that you would rank the Lions as worse than the Bears? Sure they lost their first playoff game, but they still made to the playoffs, the Bears didn't. Who would say that the Bears are better because they didn't make the playoffs than the Lions who lost in the first round?

    Or situation two: Let's say there are two teams with very similar ranking in college BBall and an identical record in the Big Ten. One team makes it into the Big Ten tournament, the other doesn't. The first team loses their first game in the tournament. Who has a better shot at making the NIT (I'm assuming neither would get an NCAA invite)? Would the NIT really look at the first team and say... Sorry, because you played in the Big Ten Tournament and lost that game, you now have more losses than the other team, so we're going to invite them because we think they are better than you.

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    If msu loses and Michigan does not make top 14, I think we will see Michigan in the capital one bowl, Nebraska in the outback, and msu in the insight. I do wonder whether the insight might prefer osu, though, knocking the Spartans down to the gator. I don't think it's likely, but the insight might prefer the osu brand, and a fanbase that is excited about urban and the future of osu over an msu team that doesn't move the needle nationally and is downtrodden over missing out on the rose bowl, cap one, and outback.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedRamage View Post
    I'm not assuming that MSU loses. I'm just saying if they lose it seems odd to me that they would then be ranked lower than a team that wasn't good enough to get into the Championship game.
    The two teams in question are ranked closely to each other, and as a practical matter whenever any ranked college team loses, it drops in the rankings.

    I never understood why when #15 on the road loses to #1 on a last second field goal, it falls to #19 or whatever. Yet it has been that way since I could remember. Asking for explanations on rankings to be logically sound is an exercise in futility.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shelton View Post
    If msu loses and Michigan does not make top 14, I think we will see Michigan in the capital one bowl, Nebraska in the outback, and msu in the insight. I do wonder whether the insight might prefer osu, though, knocking the Spartans down to the gator. I don't think it's likely, but the insight might prefer the osu brand, and a fanbase that is excited about urban and the future of osu over an msu team that doesn't move the needle nationally and is downtrodden over missing out on the rose bowl, cap one, and outback.
    Forgive my ignorance, but are bowl bids based on where you finished in the conference anymore?

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpartanValor View Post
    While other teams sit and home and watch someone else win a game for them....
    Because MSU did not benefit when UM beat Nebraska.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Bigglesworth View Post
    Forgive my ignorance, but are bowl bids based on where you finished in the conference anymore?
    Nope, they never really were. The bowls get to pick in order, they are just tied by conference. The Rose bowl takes the winner of the Big Ten Championship Game, that is slotted. The Cap One bowl gets its pick of any Big Ten teams that are eligible that are left. Then the Outback gets to pick. Then the Insight, etc. etc.
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