The Offense

[Yoda]

Why are people so up in arms over the offense not scoring runs? I think it's because they don't bother to even look at where they rank among other teams. They're 7th out of 14 teams in runs scored. The two teams ahead of them have played one additional game, and if the Tigers had not missed that game they'd probably be top 5. Scoring is down everywhere, mostly because of the cold weather.

If you just have to complain about something, then complain about the fact that they've given up the third most runs in the league, or that they have the 4th worst ERA.

[Oblong]

because we scored 10 runs in one of the 6 games. What would it look like if you took away each team's top run scoring game?

[Yoda]

because we scored 10 runs in one of the 6 games. What would it look like if you took away each team's top run scoring game?

And we won by 1 run. The offense bailed the horrible pitching out. Why shouldn't that be counted?

[Yoda]

The Tigers have score 3, 10, 1, 6, 3, 2. Look at the rest of the league. Everyone is doing this.

[Oblong]

I'm not saying the complaint is justified, I'm just explaining why people are saying this. In 2/3 of our games we've scored 3 runs or less.

[Yoda]

I'm not saying the complaint is justified, I'm just explaining why people are saying this. In 2/3 of our games we've scored 3 runs or less.

And what I'm saying is that everyone is doing this outside of NY and Toronto. Most of the teams are averaging around 3.5 to 4 runs a game. Scoring is way down this year for the most part. It'll start picking up.

I also don't get why people are wo willing to give the pitching a free pass. It's been pretty bad. I think complaining about the offense has just carried over from years past. It's the first thing that people notice.

[billfer]

And what I'm saying is that everyone is doing this outside of NY and Toronto. Most of the teams are averaging around 3.5 to 4 runs a game. Scoring is way down this year for the most part. It'll start picking up.

I also don't get why people are wo willing to give the pitching a free pass. It's been pretty bad. I think complaining about the offense has just carried over from years past. It's the first thing that people notice.

People haven't given the pitching a free pass. The bullpen has received a ton of criticism, and until yesterday they were the main culprits. Bonderman made 2 solid starts, and Robertson and Verlander were strong as well.

Even then it isn't all on the bullpen. The corner outfield defense has been horrible.

People are ragging on the offense because 2/3's of the lineup is slumping and half of the games came against the Royals.

[Gabraham]

People are ragging on the offense because 2/3's of the lineup is slumping and half of the games came against the Royals.

Indeed. This is the anus end of our schedule, and a clutch victory against the Royals was celebrated like we had just beaten Moses.

Sheffield a'int hitting. Inge a'int hitting. Monroe a'int hitting. If they were, we done gone have even mo' runs.

[DaYooperASBDT]

We have exactly three guys hitting consistently right now. The weather could indeed be a factor though. We did miss Kenny yesterday, but the way Cabrera threw, the O's would have been tough to beat.

[billfer]

I don't think people have a problem with the 3 run effort against Halladay. It is the one run against Jorge De La Rosa and Brandon Duckworth combined that has people upset. The fact that they ran into Daniel Cabrera on top of his game yesterday just lended to the frustration.

[Oblong]

tonight's game against Jaret Wright should hopefully quell any concerns on the offense (pronounced in teh Canadian way in honor of the nHL playoffs starting).

[HeyAbbott]

_____________________________RS_____ RA__ Run Diff
6 games 2007 _________________25______30_________-5
Forecasted 162 games__2007____675____810_______-135
2006 Totals____________2006___822____675_________147
Net Change__________________-147_____135

When looking at runs for 6 games, it becomes obvious that in comparison to last year, both the offense and the defense and pitching is not up to last years standard. If the current trends were to continue we would be looking at a net change in the run differential of 282 runs. To Solve the problem on offense alone, assuming pitching and defense stay the same, would require a runs scored total of 957 runs.

Looking at projected totals for runs scored (RS), and runs allowed (RA), it is clear that unless total defensive effort improves. this will not be an 81 win season.

Having said all of this, it is only six games.

[Oblong]

:silly:

What's our Pythagorean W/L record???

[HeyAbbott]

25 runs scored and 30 runs allowed will yield a .417 winning percentage. That' a 68-94 record.

[billfer]

:silly:

What's our Pythagorean W/L record???

2.5-3.5

[HeyAbbott]

I am using the "refined" pythagorean formula of runs scored raised to the 1.83 power divided by the quantity (runs scored to the power of 1.83 plus the sum of runs allowed raised to the power of 1.83)

[DaYooperASBDT]

They've sucked. Hopefully they will suck less soon. Bright side is they did managed to salvage 3 wins, and have "manufactured" a few runs here and there, which helps. I still prefer the 3-run BOMB, however!

[HeyAbbott]

with six games, Bilfer's calc are correct. .417 times six yields 2.502 games.

[HeyAbbott]

One further note, after six games last year Minnesota was 1-5.

It's just six games.

[Domino]

Something is going on. It's like baseball is boring this year so far.

I think we expected this team to be one of the top few in scoring, and one of the top few in ERA, and neither of those are even close to happening right now. Keep in mind that Cleveland has a few makeup games also so if all teams were equal they have just as good a shot as moving us down one also.

I hope it turns around fast. If I was Manager I'd sit Inge and Monroe for a game, and put Sheff in the outfield for a game. Give some others like Infante and Thames more of a shot and do something to mix it up because what's happening now isn't working.

[Charles Liston]

tonight's game against Jaret Wright should hopefully quell any concerns on the offense (pronounced in teh Canadian way in honor of the nHL playoffs starting).


That's "honour".

[Oblong]

yes, sorry about that. Why is it not spelled offence since defence is spelled that way?

[tiger337]

Something is going on. It's like baseball is boring this year so far.



The only boring thing for me is that they've been mostly day games so I haven't been able to watch. I'm looking forward to watching them more regularly starting tonight.

[tiger337]

yes, sorry about that. Why is it not spelled offence since defence is spelled that way?

The Tigers need to start hitting the ball over defence.

[thewave84]

yes, sorry about that. Why is it not spelled offence since defence is spelled that way?

Those spellings come from the Queen's English, so you'll probably have to ask the Queen. :glasses:

[billfer]

Something is going on. It's like baseball is boring this year so far.


You mentioned this in another thread, and I guess I just don't get it. A walk off grand slam by A-Rod was kind of neat. Johan Santana has been amazing. Elijah Dukes early homers were fun. Tony Pena Jr had 3 triples in his first 4 games. The Tigers have a dramatic come from behind win under their belt. The Pirates swept their opening series on the road. There was a game that was one strike away from becoming an official no-hitter only to have it cease to exist because of snow. Even the Nationals have a come from behind win.

That seems like a pretty good week to me. Or is it boring because the Tigers are .500 and you expected them to be undefeated?

[DaYooperASBDT]

Factoid of the day: Tigers have scored 25 runs, and the Red Sox have scored 19 runs. Clearly the Tigers' offense is better.

[estrepe1]

I also don't get why people are wo willing to give the pitching a free pass. It's been pretty bad. I think complaining about the offense has just carried over from years past. It's the first thing that people notice.

Who is giving the pitching a free pass? Some of the pitchers have been just awful.

You mentioned this in another thread, and I guess I just don't get it. A walk off grand slam by A-Rod was kind of neat. Johan Santana has been amazing. Elijah Dukes early homers were fun. Tony Pena Jr had 3 triples in his first 4 games. The Tigers have a dramatic come from behind win under their belt. The Pirates swept their opening series on the road. There was a game that was one strike away from becoming an official no-hitter only to have it cease to exist because of snow. Even the Nationals have a come from behind win.

That seems like a pretty good week to me. Or is it boring because the Tigers are .500 and you expected them to be undefeated?


Agreed completely.

[Surfer Joe]

I think it's because the same thing as last year. At times they can shell shock you and at other times, they can't buy a run. Basically the offense seems to have an inconsistent reputation.

The pitching has shocked me though. The starters have done relatively well but the bullpen has been horrid. If pitchers have the advantage early in the season (and they do right?), our bullpen looks to have a rough year ahead.

[tiger337]

Scoring is down everywhere, mostly because of the cold weather.



This is very true. Nobody is hitting around baseball. There have been 1.8 homers per game so far. Last year, there were 2.4. Until the weather warms up, we won't really know much.

[Surfer Joe]

They should still be hitting home runs in Colorado though eh?

[estrepe1]

I think it's because the same thing as last year. At times they can shell shock you and at other times, they can't buy a run. Basically the offense seems to have an inconsistent reputation.

The pitching has shocked me though. The starters have done relatively well but the bullpen has been horrid. If pitchers have the advantage early in the season (and they do right?), our bullpen looks to have a rough year ahead.


I think Rodney will be fine and he is the only pitcher that has really shocked me so far.

Mesa is going to be a wildcard this year. He could be pretty good or he could be really bad.

Grilli I think was okay if you look at ERA last year but his other stats told a different story.

Overall I think the pitching will be fine. They will not be as good as last season but last season was ridiculous. They will probably settle in with a 4.10 - 4.30 team era.

[Gabraham]

I think Rodney will be fine and he is the only pitcher that has really shocked me so far.

Overall I think the pitching will be fine. They will not be as good as last season but last season was ridiculous. They will probably settle in with a 4.10 - 4.30 team era.

Rodney will straighten out.

Sadly, I think the impact of losing Rogers will prove to be pretty major. It's not just wins; he was such a mentor to the staff last year, and an inspiring senior. I hate the chemistry crap too, but I think there are certain players that make a noteworthy psych impact.

[estrepe1]

Rodney will straighten out.

Sadly, I think the impact of losing Rogers will prove to be pretty major. It's not just wins; he was such a mentor to the staff last year, and an inspiring senior. I hate the chemistry crap too, but I think there are certain players that make a noteworthy psych impact.

The loss of Rogers will be more major because they will send someone like Durbin out there ever 5 days instead of Maroth being the worst pitcher on the staff.

[Charles Liston]

yes, sorry about that. Why is it not spelled offence since defence is spelled that way?

You do see both of those with the "ce" ending. When I was a kid I think that those were the more common spellings around here. Lately I don't know which is more common, the "ce" or the "se" endings...you might be just as likely to see "se" within the context of football for example. I think that "defence" is still a pretty common way of describing the hockey position, and if you're arrested you'll be charged with an "offence" I'm fairly sure.

Also, a hockey player who plays at the blueline plays de-FENCE, while a football player plays DEE-fence.

[tiger337]

Rodney will straighten out.

Sadly, I think the impact of losing Rogers will prove to be pretty major. It's not just wins; he was such a mentor to the staff last year, and an inspiring senior. I hate the chemistry crap too, but I think there are certain players that make a noteworthy psych impact.

It could have an impact but so far the young starters that he supposedly helped the most are doing fine.

[DaYooperASBDT]

They should still be hitting home runs in Colorado though eh?The past few years, the Rockies have started to keep their baseballs in a humidor, which makes the ball harder to hit for distance, so the homers have declined there. Although trying to throw a curveball in that thin air is still nearly impossible. Of course there's always a chance that the humidor quit working due to the cold weather, right? :cheeky:

[PuNk42AE]

I thought this year every team had to keep their balls in a humidor to negate Colorado doing it the last few years? Pretty sure they have to be all kept at the same temp/humidity now.

[DaYooperASBDT]

I thought this year every team had to keep their balls in a humidor to negate Colorado doing it the last few years? Pretty sure they have to be all kept at the same temp/humidity now.No, just have to be kept at a standard temperature, but not in a humidor. Here's the article: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070208&content_id=1798476&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

[PuNk42AE]

Ok, so some of them do and others don't.

[monkeytargets37]

my problem with the offense is the plate discipline. There's no way we dont lead the league in 2 pitch ABs that result in a "tapper" to the shortstop. Even most of our fly balls are pop-ups or lazy flies on pitches that could be at least driven into the outfield for a single.

Inge and Monroe (who are next to each other in the lineup) are a combined 3-37 (.081 avg) with 16 strikeouts and 4 walks. Granderson has struck out 7 times, Sheffield has struck out 6 times. Polanco, Pudge and Granderson are the only guys hitting over .240.

And this is coming in the first 6 games after we spent all off season hearing about how our offense had no holes, was much improved, and that there had been a focus on plate discipline. Instead, we couldnt hit Duckworth or De La Rosa, and we didnt draw a single walk from Daniel Cabrera (the first time he has ever done that in his career).

The pitching isnt taking as much of the heat, because out of the 12 pitchers we have on the roster, only 4 of them have been awful (Durbin, Mesa, Rodney and Grilli---and you could at least make a case that Grilli was a victim of bad luck and poor defense.) Everyone else has been outstanding except Maroth, and he at least kept us in the game and actually got a win.

We're 5-27 with 1 run scored and one extra base hit against left handed pitchers.


So you can certainly understand the frustration from people considering the buildup to this season and then what has transpired in the first 6 games.

But again, its 6 games.......I'll jump on the bandwagon if we are stinking it up on offense through 25 games.



And man, Jeff Weaver sucks.

[tater6]

Factoid of the day: Tigers have scored 25 runs, and the Red Sox have scored 19 runs. Clearly the Tigers' offense is better.I am willing to bet that Boston will have scored more after today. The fact Boston has 11 runs and it's only the 4th inning has nothing to do with it.:laugh:

[billfer]

my problem with the offense is the plate discipline. There's no way we dont lead the league in 2 pitch ABs that result in a "tapper" to the shortstop. Even most of our fly balls are pop-ups or lazy flies on pitches that could be at least driven into the outfield for a single.



I'm not sure what the latter has to do with plate discipline, or how you're defining it? The Tigers rank 5th in the league in walks and 8th in strikeouts. Granted limited sample-size and such, but both of those ranks are improvements over last year.

I haven't seen a problem with pitch selection for the most part. By and large guys aren't chasing pitches out of the strike zone. I'll try and run some numbers on first pitch swings and PA length tonight.

It seems to be more of a problem of not hitting the ball hard consistently (the latter part of your post).

[estrepe1]

It seems to be more of a problem of not hitting the ball hard consistently (the latter part of your post).

Which is more of a random thing that is called a slump.

[DaYooperASBDT]

I am willing to bet that Boston will have scored more after today. The fact Boston has 11 runs and it's only the 4th inning has nothing to do with it.:laugh:Hoo doogies, they got 7 runs off our old friend Jeff Weaver, during his 2 innings pitched! The Seattle fans will be howling for scalps pretty soon, eh?

[monkeytargets37]

I'm not sure what the latter has to do with plate discipline, or how you're defining it? The Tigers rank 5th in the league in walks and 8th in strikeouts. Granted limited sample-size and such, but both of those ranks are improvements over last year.

I haven't seen a problem with pitch selection for the most part. By and large guys aren't chasing pitches out of the strike zone. I'll try and run some numbers on first pitch swings and PA length tonight.

It seems to be more of a problem of not hitting the ball hard consistently (the latter part of your post).


Hitting the ball hard consistently has been the problem. Again, its a slump and not a serious problem.....so far. If pitch selection also isnt a problem, why isnt consistent hard contact being made? Slump. My point about plate discipline is that they actually have appeared to be more patient at the plate and have worked the counts in their favor.....but what good is that if you arent gonna even get on base. The team still only has a .302 OBP even though the plate approach has seemed to improve.


I'll say this as the reason for that low OBP number. If Monroe and Inge werent completely horrible to start the season so far, that number would probably be up much higher. Long story short, I think if/when Monroe and Inge start hitting, the offense will be considerably better on all fronts.

Casey has walked 4 times and only struck out once, so you could make the case that he's making contact, but just off a little bit on his timing to start the season. His ABs, in that regard, are much less troubling than the slow starts by Inge and Monroe.

We know Sheff will start hitting. Granderson, Pudge, Polanco, Maggs and Guillen have all been solid on offense. We just have to wait for everyone to get going.....but how long do you wait before the Inge and Monroe debacles really become problems? Not saying you pull them out now (although I'd have put Thames in Left to start the season) but I'm asking at what point does it officially become a problem? Thats what seems to be bothering people.

[estrepe1]

OBP is connected to batting average. When you take the BA and look at it at .231 the fact that their OBP is .071 above the BA is a good sign because you know they won't continue to hit in the .231 range. If you assume that they can get it up to the .274 that they had last season then the OBP if it stays consistently .081 above the BA would be .345. To me that is a huge improvement over the recent years and would rank as 8th amongst AL teams last season.

[DaYooperASBDT]

We know Sheff will start hitting. Granderson, Pudge, Polanco, Maggs and Guillen have all been solid on offense. We just have to wait for everyone to get going.....but how long do you wait before the Inge and Monroe debacles really become problems? Not saying you pull them out now (although I'd have put Thames in Left to start the season) but I'm asking at what point does it officially become a problem? Thats what seems to be bothering people.I don't have a great answer, but I would say: treat a slump at the beginning of a season the same way you would treat a slump at any other time of year. Give them a few weeks to work out of it, then start reducing their playing time.

[estrepe1]

BTW Carlos Guillen has not been solid this season. He is batting .217/.308/.261... I gurantee we will lose 90 games if he hits like that.

[tigerkid23]

BTW Carlos Guillen has not been solid this season. He is batting .217/.308/.261... I gurantee we will lose 90 games if he hits like that.

You think Dombrowski would regret giving Guillen the extension if he hits for a .569 OPS for the season? :lick:

[tater6]

You think Dombrowski would regret giving Guillen the extension if he hits for a .569 OPS for the season? :lick:
yes

[tigerkid23]

yes

That was a rhetorical question.