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Rosenthal Picks Tigers to Win it All [Archive] - MotownSports.com Message Board

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CapitalTigers
04-01-2007, 06:13 PM
Tigers will take it one step further


Stop looking for this year's surprise World Series winner.


The Tigers are the best team on paper. And, shocking as it might sound in this age of parity, the best team is going to win the Series.

Seven different clubs have won the last seven titles, many of them improbably. But at some point, reason must prevail.

The Tigers have the right manager, Jim Leyland. They boast a new slugger, Gary Sheffield. And they possess enough depth to withstand the various pitfalls that occur over 162 games — starting with the loss of left-hander Kenny Rogers, who likely will be out until July after undergoing surgery to remove a blood clot in his left shoulder.

Truth is, the Tigers should have won the Series last season, but their six-day layoff after the American League Championship Series disrupted their rhythm.

A charmed revival ended in acute disappointment.

And the Tigers won't forget.

"The most important thing about last year was actually losing that World Series," Tigers third baseman Brandon Inge says.

"You can probably go around this clubhouse and ask anyone if he was satisfied with last year. And I'll guarantee you that every person says, without hesitation, ‘Not even a chance.'"

Funny, but from a psychological standpoint, Leyland takes precisely the opposite view of 2006. Talking to his players on the first day of spring training, he delivered a clear message:

Last season is over. Forget it.

The Tigers, to a man, bought in.

Hey, Pudge Rodriguez, how different is it now that the team knows how to win?

"We don't know nothing," Rodriguez fires back. "We've got to play hard. We can not take anything for granted. We can not take any chances."

Hey, Gary Sheffield, what must the Tigers do to sustain their 2006 momentum?

"A lot of people think that teams that are supposed to win it all are built on force and intimidation," Sheffield says. "That's the last thing that is going to get it done.

"It's built on finesse, playing the game the right way, doing the little things, being capable of doing the big things. When you have all of that, it makes for a dangerous team."

Sheffield preaching finesse?


Rosenthal's picks


So how will the 2007 MLB season pan out? Here's Ken Rosenthal's take …
AL EAST
Yankees: Shaky rotation could make for year of transition.
Red Sox: Must figure out how to get to Papelbon.
Blue Jays: Maybe higher if Halladay, Burnett stay healthy.
Orioles: Much riding on young starting pitchers.
Devil Rays: Weak bullpen will impede progress.

For all of Ken Rosenthal's team predictions, click here ...


Awards picks
NATIONAL LEAGUE
MVP: Albert Pujols, Cardinals. This time, there will be no debate.
Cy Young: Chris Carpenter, Cardinals. I pick him every year.
Rookie: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies. The game's next outstanding shortstop.


For all of Ken Rosenthal's awards picks, click here ...



Maybe Leyland is practicing hypnosis.

Actually, Leyland need not remind the Tigers that two other clubs in the AL Central, the Twins and White Sox, won 90 games last season, and a third, the Indians, seems poised to rebound.

The strength of the Central alone will prevent the Tigers from being complacent. So will the threat of Leyland turning on them the way he did in April, when he punctured the team's losing culture with a memorable post-game rant.

The margin for error is small, and the Tigers know it. The injury to Rogers highlighted their biggest concern — attrition to their starting rotation similar to what the White Sox experienced after winning the 2005 World Series.

Rogers worked a total of 227 innings last season at age 41, throwing harder in October than he had in years.

Right-hander Justin Verlander threw a combined 207 2/3 innings, 77 2/3 more than he did in his first year as a professional.

Righty Jeremy Bonderman exceeded his career high in innings by more than 45, lefty Nate Robertson by nearly 30.


Justin Verlander anchors a deep rotation that will have to survive without Kenny Rogers until July. (Eliot J. Schechter / Getty Images)

Meanwhile, lefty Mike Maroth is returning from elbow surgery, and righty Chad Durbin — while impressive in Triple A last season — has a 6.14 career ERA in 337 1/3 major-league innings.

As if all that isn't alarming enough, three Tigers position players with injury histories — Rodriguez, shortstop Carlos Guillen and right fielder Magglio Ordonez — played in 149, 166 and 168 games respectively last season, including playoffs.

On the surface, it appears as if the whole team might crumble, but general manager David Dombrowski made sure to keep the team's depth intact during the off-season, ensuring that the Tigers would be protected at most positions.

Durbin, the new No. 5 starter, is merely the first rotation option. Behind him are righties Zach Miner, Jordan Tata, Jair Jurrjens and — most significantly — lefty Andrew Miller, the team's No. 1 draft choice last June.

Outfielder Marcus Thames, who hit 26 homers in 348 at-bats last season, can substitute for Ordonez, Sheffield or left fielder Craig Monroe. Infielder Ramon Santiago and first baseman Chris Shelton, both of whom will open in Triple A, could play regularly, if necessary.

Not that the Tigers are perfect. Guillen is losing range at short. Closer Todd Jones turns 39 later this month. And right-handed setup man Joel Zumaya, for all his gifts, isn't necessarily ready to close if Jones falters.

While righties Zumaya and Fernando Rodney are effective against left-handed hitters, Wil Ledezma is the Tigers' only lefty reliever in a division that features the Indians' Travis Hafner, White Sox's Jim Thome and Twins' Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

And, while Sheffield brings a .398 career on-base percentage, Leyland doesn't want other Tigers mimicking his aggressive yet disciplined style, even though the team ranked 12th in the AL last season in OBP.

"He swings harder than anyone in baseball and he doesn't strike out much," Leyland says. "If I had other guys doing that, they wouldn't hit anything."

Sheffield adds a certain swagger to the Tigers' lineup — "moxie," first-base coach Andy Van Slyke calls it. He also brings a certain toughness to a team that admittedly had it easy early last season.

The Tigers were the darlings of the sport as they rebounded from five consecutive seasons of 90 or more losses, including 119 in 2003.

"The first six weeks, everyone was really happy for us," Jones recalls. "There was always that pat on the back from the managers. When we'd go through different towns, everyone was like, ‘Man, you guys are doing really well.'

"I don't think that's going to be the case this year. People are going to be gunning for us. They're going to want to beat our butts. We might have snuck in a couple of wins early last year that probably aren't going to be there this year. But the tradeoff is, your whole team is way more confident."

They're confident because they're good.

Good enough to win it all.




http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6628922?MSNHPHMA

estrepe1
04-01-2007, 06:14 PM
Ugh.... the national writers have it out for the Tigers this year.

zachcadillac
04-01-2007, 06:16 PM
Ugh.... the national writers have it out for the Tigers this year.

No joke. I get more nervous with each cover story.

tigerfanfromchicago
04-01-2007, 06:20 PM
Is he also predicting us to trade Maybin for Soriano... again?

tigersfandm
04-01-2007, 06:22 PM
How many writers and such picked the White Sox last year to go all the way since they 'bolstered' their rotation last year. They had a winning year, but didn't even get into the playoffs.

Oblong
04-01-2007, 07:08 PM
Having a year like the 2006 White Sox won't be so bad. They were right in it until the last few weeks.

estrepe1
04-01-2007, 07:11 PM
Having a year like the 2006 White Sox won't be so bad. They were right in it until the last few weeks.

Agreed. I am not worried about the team making the playoffs this year to be honest. Thats not what it will take to be successful. Just be in the race all year.

tigerkid23
04-01-2007, 08:41 PM
Agreed. I am not worried about the team making the playoffs this year to be honest. Thats not what it will take to be successful. Just be in the race all year.

This is how I feel as well. Win somewhere between 85-90 games (and all of the games where I am in attendance) and I'm happy with the season. Anything more than that is welcome, but I'm not necessarly expecting it. Unfortunately, it seems like the general public is expecting it and that's not really a good thing.

Oblong
04-01-2007, 09:07 PM
It'll be a good thing for opening day 2008 when there's suddenly quite a few more tickets available again
:)

chasfh
04-01-2007, 09:24 PM
National writers are lemmings, or more exactly, like moths -- they follow wherever the light is, and the Tigers emanated a bright light last year. With one significant exception, this is essentially the same team we had last year, and I don't recall anyone last April saying we were one of the best teams in baseball, on paper or anywhere else.

Baseball writers for major national media -- meaning those who write columns for a living -- do not look very critically at every component of every team, and unless you can do that, you can't really say who is the best team, on paper or anywhere else. You can only say whatever the current flight of fancy leads you to say.

This is one area where statistical analysis and projection models trump some dude at his laptop meeting a word count target and a deadline. The Tigers are closer to being the 10th best team in baseball than to being the very best team. Tenth ain't bad -- that still puts us in shouting distance of a playoff berth. But I wouldn't put much stock in what writers say.

Oblong
04-01-2007, 09:48 PM
I only do when there's a consensus because it seems their consensus is always wrong and this year I want their consensus to be right.

MackAveKurt
04-01-2007, 10:33 PM
A revisit to 2006 is interesting because it shows how the experts are both right and wrong.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview06/news/story?page=06expertpicks

Quite a few picked the Cardinals to make it to the World Series, and we know the rest. But I'm certain it doesn't matter either way.

Chaz
04-01-2007, 10:46 PM
I just hope they don't follow the Pistons and Wings of last year!

Go Tigers

IdahoBert
04-01-2007, 11:19 PM
For years we have moaned that no one respects the Tigers and now that they do we complain about it. I know the reasons for people's apprehensions but it's good that the team is getting noticed. I like it. Whether it turns out to be true or not doesn't matter. Live for today and enjoy the pure potential of the unknown--a season opener with more promise than many of us have every known. It's like walking home from school on the last day and having summer vacation stretching out before you. Enjoy it. We deserve this and our team deserves it. The Detroit Tigers have arrived. Rejoice!

zachcadillac
04-01-2007, 11:36 PM
For years we have moaned that no one respects the Tigers and now that they do we complain about it. I know the reasons for people's apprehensions but it's good that the team is getting noticed. I like it. Whether it turns out to be true or not doesn't matter. Live for today and enjoy the pure potential of the unknown--a season opener with more promise than many of us have every known. It's like walking home from school on the last day and having summer vacation stretching out before you. Enjoy it. We deserve this and our team deserves it. The Detroit Tigers have arrived. Rejoice!

For the most part, the people who are questioning Rosenthal now aren't the same people who complained about disrespect last year.

tiger337
04-01-2007, 11:59 PM
A revisit to 2006 is interesting because it shows how the experts are both right and wrong.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview06/news/story?page=06expertpicks

Quite a few picked the Cardinals to make it to the World Series, and we know the rest. But I'm certain it doesn't matter either way.

The reason they picked the Cardinals was because the Cardinals were so good in 2004 and 2005. I wonder how many thought they would go 83-79 in the regular season? You are right it does not matter much either way who anybody picks because you can't predict injuries or peak/valley seasons with much accuracy. I think the statistical projections work a little better but even they make a lot mistakes.

I will point out that Baseball Prospectus and, I believe, Diamond Mind were about the only ones outside of Michigan who felt the Tigers could contend last year. PECOTA did a great job predicting breakthrough seasons for Zumaya and Verlander and also improvement for Robertson and Bonderman last year. PECOTA doesn't usually work that well for pitchers but it works a little better than one person like Rosenthal. Does it work better than fan consensus? Maybe not. I'll be curious to see how the fans do versus projection systems in Tango's community forecasts.

estrepe1
04-02-2007, 12:00 AM
For the most part, the people who are questioning Rosenthal now aren't the same people who complained about disrespect last year.

Pretty much. I couldn't care less whether the national media gives the Tigers any respect.

djhutch
04-02-2007, 07:35 AM
Is he also predicting us to trade Maybin for Soriano... again?

I read a quote in either the Sporting News or ESPN The Mag where DD said "I would not trade Cameron Maybin straight up for Alfonso Soriano." DD is smart.

Dawgs
04-02-2007, 08:51 AM
This is how I feel as well. Win somewhere between 85-90 games (and all of the games where I am in attendance) and I'm happy with the season. Anything more than that is welcome, but I'm not necessarly expecting it. Unfortunately, it seems like the general public is expecting it and that's not really a good thing.

Tigers win 85 games thier liable to be 15 out and I dont think Ill be happy or satisfied one bit about it. Playoffs are what its about. Ill be disappointed with anything less.

chasfh
04-02-2007, 09:21 AM
For years we have moaned that no one respects the Tigers and now that they do we complain about it. I know the reasons for people's apprehensions but it's good that the team is getting noticed. I like it. Whether it turns out to be true or not doesn't matter. Live for today and enjoy the pure potential of the unknown--a season opener with more promise than many of us have every known. It's like walking home from school on the last day and having summer vacation stretching out before you. Enjoy it. We deserve this and our team deserves it. The Detroit Tigers have arrived. Rejoice!

Were you referring to my post? I wasn't complaining about it -- I was just pointing out that columnists are not savvy on the details of every aspect of every team, and thus really aren't good judges of who the best teams are.

I don't mind getting love in the national press -- it sure beats the alternative. All I'm saying is, for the most part, they don't really know what they're talking about, because rather than try to actually figure out who's the best team and why, they tend to follow each other around -- or on the flip side, choose differently for the sake of being different.

By way of example, an XM Home Plate commentator named Mark Gray (the broadcast equivalent of a columnist) said yesterday he was choosing against the Brewers for the NL Central specifically because they're the fashionable pick among all the writers. I mean, really, how can anyone take that seriously?

tiger337
04-02-2007, 10:40 AM
Were you referring to my post? I wasn't complaining about it -- I was just pointing out that columnists are not savvy on the details of every aspect of every team, and thus really aren't good judges of who the best teams are.

I don't mind getting love in the national press -- it sure beats the alternative. All I'm saying is, for the most part, they don't really know what they're talking about, because rather than try to actually figure out who's the best team and why, they tend to follow each other around -- or on the flip side, choose differently for the sake of being different.

By way of example, an XM Home Plate commentator named Mark Gray (the broadcast equivalent of a columnist) said yesterday he was choosing against the Brewers for the NL Central specifically because they're the fashionable pick among all the writers. I mean, really, how can anyone take that seriously?

Ken Rosenthal and Mark Gray get payed to talk about baseball. I think they know a little more than you. :smoker:

djhutch
04-02-2007, 10:44 AM
Ken Rosenthal and Mark Gray get payed to talk about baseball. I think they know a little more than you. :smoker:

See also, Joe Morgan.

IdahoBert
04-02-2007, 11:08 AM
Were you referring to my post? I wasn't complaining about it -- I was just pointing out that columnists are not savvy on the details of every aspect of every team, and thus really aren't good judges of who the best teams are.I was not referring to any one poster but more to the collective sense of the board. My feeling is that it's a good thing to be recognized as a good team for a change and that it's alright to enjoy it. It's not much but it signifies a major shift in the perceived fortunes of the Detroit Tigers.

Often last year many people (not specifically those disinterested in the media's analysis this year) bemoaned that the Tigers were not getting credit for being real. Now most of the comments that are posted dismiss the recognition the team is finally getting. I'm not tracking or singling out any particular poster for a lack of consistancy. I just find it ironic that when the team is finally for real and when the national media agrees, most of the posts minimize this recognition.

I guess I'm just willing to sit back on opening day and to enjoy some of the long denied attention the team is now getting without analyzing it's source or motivation. It's a day when a person can take a breather and dream big.

There's nothing intrinsically wrong with scrutinizing this newfound attention the team is getting, and this board would be boring if it were to be nothing more than a kissy-face love fest of easy to please fans. But one day a year I enjoy being easy to please.

iceteebone
04-02-2007, 11:14 AM
i predicted the tigers to win 85 games last year. i predited bonderman to have a break out year last year and i'm picking him to have a breakout year this year, and will continue to do so till he has a break out year.