Verlander and my epiphany.

[DennisDubay]

I've been thinking about this, now for some time. And i'm ready to say it, and it has NOTHING to do with the case of beer missing from my refriderator.

Justin Verlander will win the cy young this year.

22-7 3.71ERA 182k's.

You read it here first.

[Doctor Detroit]

I think you're wrong but I really hope you are right.

I think 17-11 3.71 and 155 Ks is more likely. Actually, even that sounds pretty good.

Will say it now just like you have done with Verlander: Bonderman is a Cy Young darkhorse and this will be the year we see him mature. I think Bondo outperforms Verlander.

[Johnny Mac]

heck, i feel like i need to throw a prediction in here.

18-8 3.70 era and 150 K's

[DennisDubay]

Doc:

Your probably right about Verlander. I'm just in a good mood, and I wanted to read and write something positive tonight. I've been sensing some real negative nancy's lately. Maybe i'm just reading into things wrong. I don't know.

It's almost as if we're all waiting for the shoe to drop .. like last year was a dream.

I think this team is real. And i JUST CAN"T wait till the season starts.

[Doctor Detroit]

Doc:

Your probably right about Verlander. I'm just in a good mood, and I wanted to read and write something positive tonight. I've been sensing some real negative nancy's lately. Maybe i'm just reading into things wrong. I don't know.

It's almost as if we're all waiting for the shoe to drop .. like last year was a dream.

I think this team is real. And i JUST CAN"T wait till the season starts.
Not a problem with me. The one thing I can't stand about Detroit fans in general is the pessimism. One minute it's we are gonna sweep the Cards and after three outs in the first we aren't winning a game. Can't stand it. I've been out of Michigan for 14 of the last 16 years and I'm a very even keeled fan who looks at substance over subjectivity. What some of the fans said after the WS last year sickened me. I traveled 4000 miles to see game 6 and I left disappointed but as proud as a fan could be. I've been waiting 15 years for the Tigers to come back and I enjoy every minute. Keep the positive stuff coming, and keep it coming in bulk. Hope you're right on Verlander and then some.

[Bondo]

A 3.7 ERA most likely won't win the Cy young award. Especially under 200 k's.

20 wins is very hard to attain these days as well.

Shoot I hope it happens though. Why not. I really think though that if Verlander flashes the curve he had last year earlier in the year more often, he outpitches Bonderman.

[Microline133]

I think Bonderman's more likely to win the Cy in '07, than Verlander.....

[Lbh24]

I'll take Bonderman's chances over Verlander's as well. We must remember that JV had a pretty sizable innings increase last year -- it will be interesting to see if that effects him this year.

[DrWho17]

Verlander has already had 1 season far better then any of Bonderman's 4, why am I to think Bonderman will close the gap so much in 1 year. I'll take Verlander over the long season, I think he won't have the streaks Bonderman has, he seems to me to be mentally stronger. Main Difference between the two, Bonderman freaks with runners on base, Verlander doesn't.

[jadefalcon]

I think Bondy will be more likely to win the Cy Young than Verlander.

Prediction for my AAT: 16-7, 3.80 ERA, 170 K's

[tiger337]

Verlander has already had 1 season far better then any of Bonderman's 4, why am I to think Bonderman will close the gap so much in 1 year. I'll take Verlander over the long season, I think he won't have the streaks Bonderman has, he seems to me to be mentally stronger.

Verlander had a better ERA than Bonderman last year but whether he was actually better last year is questionable. He certainly wasn't far better. In fact, it's much easier to make a case that Bonderman was better. Here are the stats:



Player IP H/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB% K ERA FIP
Bonderman 214 9.00 2.69 0.75 48.2 8.50 4.08 3.31
Verlander 186 9.05 2.90 1.02 41.7 6.00 3.63 4.41



Verlander had the better ERA but ERA is very fielding dependent. Bonderman beat him on every other stat and he blew him away on the fielding independent stats - strikeouts,walks, groundball percentage and I'll throw home runs in there too. All these stats are better indicators of future success than ERA. Thus, I'll conclude that Bonderman has a very good chance to do as well or better than Verlander in 2007.

[Yoda]

Main Difference between the two, Bonderman freaks with runners on base, Verlander doesn't.

Bonderman does walk a lot more batters with runners on but his BAA gets better with runners on than without runners. I don't think he "freaks". He just has to trust his stuff more and not nitpick so much.

[tiger337]

Verlander had a 78.3% LOB% last year. Bonderman was 69.2%. So Verlander was significantly better with runners on base. The problem is that LOB% is not as repeatable as BB, K and GB%. It's unlikely that Verlander will do so well next year in that area.

Another difference was fielding support. Verlander had better fielding support. The DER behind Verlander was .706. The DER behind Bonderman was .682.

[LJK004]

Bonderman does walk a lot more batters with runners on but his BAA gets better with runners on than without runners. I don't think he "freaks". He just has to trust his stuff more and not nitpick so much.

Exactly what I've always thought. I'd say Bonderman has a better chance at a Cy Young in the next couple of years but, long term I see Verlander being in the race for one as well. I still think Bonderman needs another effective pitch to reach his full potential. Without a third pitch he's not Cy Young material.