Granderson on the Move?

[Ron Burgandy]

He's been targeted by Atlanta, according to Baseball Prosectus:

Oh, the tease. While I can’t give specifics on the deal, there are still at least six teams involved in some discussions centering on Atlanta. The Braves are in full dump mode, trying to get something for Andruw Jones, trying to find Jones’ replacement on the cheap, and working more on the bullpen. Leo Mazzone isn’t there to build a bullpen out of dreck anymore. So how does this all work together? Why trade a young player like Andy LaRoche if they’re trying to control the payroll? Why deal Jones right now rather than at the deadline? The team is determined to find a solid bullpen and think they can do it with a series of deals that include LaRoche, Mike Gonzalez, Andruw Jones, and several CF candidates that I’m told include Rocco Baldelli, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Markakis. The deals appear to also have some other big names like Tim Hudson, Mark Teixeira, and Dontrelle Willis on the periphery. The three team deal that seemed close over the weekend doesn’t seem so close now as the complexity has increased. Remember that John Schuerholz is normally a slow worker, so quiet on this front doesn’t mean that nothing is happening.

Hopefully this keeps everyone happy. It certainly gives a lot of teams something to talk about, think about, or just ignore.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?PHPSESSID=6bfaa956f2252e8f7065371c80bff4bd

It would be hard to trade Granderson, the first really good position player we've developed in a long-time. For the right price, though, it would have to be considered, especially with Maybin in the wings (yes I realize that Grandy and Maybin can play together).

Who would do an Andruw Jones for Granderson swap? Long-term it is a loser, but it would make us the undisputed WS favorite in 2007.

[Yoda]

Refresh my memory... What is Jones' contract situation? I'd be inclined to say no, just because I want this team to be good for a long time. Curtis and Cameron could be a nice combo for the next 10 years.

[Ron Burgandy]

I believe Andruw is a free agent after 2007.

[Oblong]

Isn't Andruw still like 19 or something?
I couldn't be a GM. I get too attached to players. Granderson's one of my favorites in a long time. He's already reached Lance/Alan levels with me.

[Buddha]

I'd do Granderson for JOnes if Jones signed for a couple more seasons.

But I think I'm probably lower on Granderson than most people here. His inability to hit any ball that is curving is troubling to me.

[Oblong]

What if we end up with Texiera and Markakis and only lose Granderson?

[DrWho17]

He's been targeted by Atlanta, according to Baseball Prosectus:



http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?PHPSESSID=6bfaa956f2252e8f7065371c80bff4bd

It would be hard to trade Granderson, the first really good position player we've developed in a long-time. For the right price, though, it would have to be considered, especially with Maybin in the wings (yes I realize that Grandy and Maybin can play together).

Who would do an Andruw Jones for Granderson swap? Long-term it is a loser, but it would make us the undisputed WS favorite in 2007.
I'd do it, Granderson to me is going to be a good player, but I'm not sure he will ever put up Andrew Jones type numbers. Maybin will move him out of center field, and I'm not sure Granderson is going to put up much but average numbers from a corner spot. Andrew Jones will only be 30 by next years opening day, he's not that old, but has a lot of miles on him.

[Yoda]

Isn't Andruw still like 19 or something?
I couldn't be a GM. I get too attached to players. Granderson's one of my favorites in a long time. He's already reached Lance/Alan levels with me.

Curtis will be one of those memorable players when all is said and done.

[Yoda]

Maybin will move him out of center field, and I'm not sure Granderson is going to put up much but average numbers from a corner spot.

I agree with this but his defense adds a lot of value as well. And he's already a big fan favorite. I'd really hate to lose him for a guy that is going to either walk after 1 season or will be really expensive.

[Sparks4Ever]

With Maybin waiting in the wings, the Tigers would be smart to save their money for a top-shelf free agent infielder, or even to just re-sign Guillen. Their outfield of Granderson, Monroe, Ordonez, Thames, Sheffield and in a year or two Maybin is more than satisfactory. The Tigers need to start saving some money for infielders, or better yet, spend it now on Guillen.

[zachcadillac]

I wouldn't do it.

[smitchell24]

Wouldn't it cost more than just Granderson to get Jones??

[tigerkid23]

Granderson for pending free agent Andruw Jones who'll probably leave after the season? Pass. Now, if he was to sign an extension....

[Euphdude]

If Jones agrees to sign an extension then absolutely yes.

[Sparks4Ever]

Wouldn't it cost more than just Granderson to get Jones??

It shouldn't. Granderson is essentially stuck with the Tigers (or whoever the Tigers trade him to) for another 4 or 5 years, while Jones is a free agent after 2007 and costs about $13 million dollars more. While Granderson probably will never become the player that Jones is, he should be a huge bargain for a couple more years or so.

[Zakk_Wylde]

Isn't Andruw still like 19 or something?
I couldn't be a GM. I get too attached to players. Granderson's one of my favorites in a long time. He's already reached Lance/Alan levels with me.

Andruw is 29, 30 in April.

[JonBenke]

Curtis will be one of those memorable players when all is said and done.
And I think your feelings are too much in this statement, sorry.

Andruw is much younger than allot of people think, being he started so young, and Jones/Maybin .. that's better than Granderson/Maybin, sorry.

What if we end up with Texiera and Markakis and only lose Granderson?
GOOD POINT!

[FloridaTigers]

I don't want to lose Grandy

[JonBenke]

Yeah, no one wants to lose Grandy, their buddy, their pal .. but this is a simple decision, I am sorry, and it's also way too good to be true.

[Just Some Dude]

I don't want to lose Grandy

Me either, but I am a big Andruw Jones fan. This is a no brainer if Andruw is willing to sign at least a 3 year extension.

[Yoda]

And I think your feelings are too much in this statement, sorry.

I have no idea what this means.

[JonBenke]

I have no idea what this means.
No offense, but you said - Curtis will be one of those memorable players when all is said and done.

That's your opinion, and your bias feelings towards a player you like, and not a good reason not to trade him, especially for an upgrade like Jones.


Dude, I am sure you feel the same way about Verlander and Zumaya, amongst others .. and that's because you're a fan.

This all said, I understand the love people have for Granderson. He's a great player, a great person, but it's also why a GMs job is never easy.

[Shaggy Ry]

I didn't think Granderson would even be in any discussions, and think this is more Atlanta asking about him that Detroit really looking to move him. I'm in the camp that wouldn't trade him for a re-signed Andruw Jones for the simple reaosn we are not a franchise that has money growing on trees and signing Andruw would handcuff in the future. The way I look at it is that Granderson will give us 60% of Andruw Jones production going forward, however at 1/15th the cost for the next few years - This sorta math the Detroit franchise cannot ignore. Now if we were the New York Yankees...

I think many hear really underestimate Nick Markakis here, for whatever reason. He's never been a sexy prospect name, and plays for the never-talked-about Baltimore Orioles, but he had a very solid rookie campaign, with a blazing second half after probably getting rushed up this season.

We're not going to get Markakis and Teixeira for Granderson but if that was somehow offered, surely you'd have to jump at is, just as you'd have to jump at a Pujols for Verlander offer or a Miguel Cabrara for Andrew Miller offer.

[Yoda]

I wasn't saying that I wouldn't trade Granderson because I like him. Just saying I'd hate to see him leave. The reason I wouldn't make the trade is because Jones may be entering the downside of his career while Granderson is just reaching his prime. In 5 years Granderson will probably be more productive than Jones. Its just not a trade I would make. Especially with what we'd have to pay Jones.

[JonBenke]

The reason I wouldn't make the trade is because Jones may be entering the downside of his career...
Do you even know how young Andruw Jones is ?

A-Jones :: April 23, 1977, which puts him at 29 .. 30 by the start of the season.

C-Granderson :: March 16, 1981, which puts him at 25 .. 26 by the start of the season.

FOUR YEARS -- Andruw Jones is only a mere four years older than Granderson, so you might not want to act as if they are so far apart.

[SpartanValor]

They said it was a three team trade, who's saying we would get andruw jones for him?

If its granderson for teixiera I think you have to do it.

[spikesglaring]

Do you even know how young Andruw Jones is ?

A-Jones :: April 23, 1977, which puts him at 29 .. 30 by the start of the season.

C-Granderson :: March 16, 1981, which puts him at 25 .. 26 by the start of the season.

FOUR YEARS -- Andruw Jones is only a mere four years older than Granderson, so you might not want to act as if they are so far apart.

Andruw's build makes his body more likely to break down than Granderson's to do the same. It's likely Andruw's mobility in centerfield will diminish in the coming years. Granderson still has room to grow and become stronger.

[Shaggy Ry]

Andruw Jones has been in the league since he was 19 years old, meaning he has 10 years of wear and tear on his body. There is more than just raw age in the equation. That being said, its the pay difference compared to the output difference that keeps me from making this deal.

[Yoda]

FOUR YEARS -- Andruw Jones is only a mere four years older than Granderson, so you might not want to act as if they are so far apart.

I'll act how I want, but thanks.

4 years is a big deal when discussing 2 players in their upper-20's. Especially with players moving around as often as they do these days. Jones has a career OPS of .850. Over the next 5 years, do you really think Jones is going to be that much better than Granderson? I don't. Jones is a good player but I think you're overrating him and underrating Granderson.

[pyrotigers]

Andruw's build makes his body more likely to break down than Granderson's to do the same. It's likely Andruw's mobility in centerfield will diminish in the coming years. Granderson still has room to grow and become stronger.

Jones mobility already has diminished, he wasn't very good defensively last year at all.

Of course, he's still such a good hitter that if he can even be adequate in center field defensively he's a great player.

[84 Lives!!!]

Maybe Andruw would be the better LF'er than Grandy?

Edit: (PS - That was a "Maybin's future is in CF" reference... Obviously requiring AJ to extend to even be considered as an issue... sorry if I caused any confusion there...)

But...

I'm with the crowd that says Andruw's pay/production ratio compared to Grandy's... would make a straight-up trade not worth it. I don't know what's up Schuerholz's or DD's sleeve though... maybe DD comes out of this "potential" deal with something better...

[ian_a]

Andruw Jones is going to get $120,000,000+. Pass

[JonBenke]

This thread is a joke. Yeah, ten years of "wear and tear" is allot for Jones, but moving to a corner spot when Maybin is ready...

Whatever, Granderson is a golden boy around these here parts, and when you get that label, the glare rarely ever comes off.

[DaYooperASBDT]

If the Tigers received Markakis and LaRoche, I would jump on it.

[tigermojo]

Would Jones' numbers be as good at Comerica? How many of his 41 HRs last season would be out at Comerica? What are the chances of him agreeing to an extension? He'd be worth alot of money on the open market. He'd probably get a similar contract to Vernon Wells.

[Shaggy Ry]

This thread is a joke. Yeah, ten years of "wear and tear" is allot for Jones, but moving to a corner spot when Maybin is ready...

Whatever, Granderson is a golden boy around these here parts, and when you get that label, the glare rarely ever comes off.


Can't others just have a difference of opinion? Why do you feel the need to come off as a condescending ***? Santa put coal in your stocking this year??

[DaYooperASBDT]

One of the reindeer peed in Johnny's Cherios .... :grin:

PS I had two of my presents wizzed on by small dogs this year.
Is that some kind of bad karma ??? :paranoid:

[JonBenke]

I am far from a condescending tool, but it's hard to argue with anyone about their selective golden boys, I am sorry.

You go out of Detroit, and ask people what they think, about moving Granderson in this sort of deal, getting A'Jones, etc .. and not just anyone, but of well educated people like those on this board, and I think you would get a much different opinion, so, yeah, call me whatever you all want - lol.

[Biff Mayhem]

Would Jones' numbers be as good at Comerica? How many of his 41 HRs last season would be out at Comerica? What are the chances of him agreeing to an extension? He'd be worth alot of money on the open market. He'd probably get a similar contract to Vernon Wells.

Turner Field is not a HR friendly park. 19 were hit at home. 13 of the 41 were hit with a 0-0 count.

Given that, I'm not ready to give up on Granderson and I'd be more bummed if he was traded than I was when Catalanotto was traded and Lord knows I've been burning that candle for 6 years.

[ian_a]

Hey JonBenke why don't you try arguing against what people are saying?

Andruw Jones is 30 and has a bad baseball body, his decline is likely to start sooner than for most people, especially considering when he first entered the majors. We'd rather pay Granderson $327,000/yr than pay Jones $20,000,000/yr, thinking that Jones' marginal value over Granderson is not worth the salary hamstringing.

Are you going to insult me now? (I am not saying Granderson is better than Jones btw!)

[Biff Mayhem]

You go out of Detroit, and ask people what they think, about moving Granderson in this sort of deal, getting A'Jones, etc .. and not just anyone, but of well educated people like those on this board, and I think you would get a much different opinion, so, yeah, call me whatever you all want - lol.

A lot of White Sox fans call Granderson "the one who got away".

[Yoda]

I am far from a condescending tool, but it's hard to argue with anyone about their selective golden boys, I am sorry.

You go out of Detroit, and ask people what they think, about moving Granderson in this sort of deal, getting A'Jones, etc .. and not just anyone, but of well educated people like those on this board, and I think you would get a much different opinion, so, yeah, call me whatever you all want - lol.

Instead of being an ahole, why don't you just answer my question and join a civilized debate with the rest of us.

4 years is a big deal when discussing 2 players in their upper-20's. Especially with players moving around as often as they do these days. Jones has a career OPS of .850. Over the next 5 years, do you really think Jones is going to be that much better than Granderson? I don't. Jones is a good player but I think you're overrating him and underrating Granderson.

[JonBenke]

I agree with you all about Andruw's decline, but I think that decline will take him from playing CF, over to the corner, where we then have Maybin.

I think not playing CF everyday, actually, would help A'Jones out a great deal.

[baseball3]

The Braves would LOVE to dump Jones as they will get NOTHING for him after next season. There is NO way they re-sign him, so, if we want to go in that direction, we can do it without trading, but, waiting merely 1 year...........................NO to the trade !!

We are NOT going to end up trading net for Texeria AND LaRoach (who I don't like anyway), so, no need to debate the issue

[PuNk42AE]

I think i'd keep Granderson over Jones just due to age and current athletic ability. Again just like Shelton we have to wait and see how Granderson does in 2007 to see if he's going to keep the K rate that high or drop it by 50 this coming year.

[JonBenke]

...answer my question and join a civilized debate with the rest of us.
I think moving to one of the corner spots, with Maybin in CF, would help a great deal. The best thing for A'Jones is to not play CF, and here - he won't, at least, not that long, or until Maybin is ready. So over that five year span, thinking about all that, and with the prospects of DHing - YES.

[Yoda]

I think i'd keep Granderson over Jones just due to age and current athletic ability. Again just like Shelton we have to wait and see how Granderson does in 2007 to see if he's going to keep the K rate that high or drop it by 50 this coming year.

Oh youre just blind because he's the golden boy!! You need to learn to stop being such a homer!! "lol"

[Yoda]

I think moving to one of the corner spots, with Maybin in CF, would help a great deal. The best thing for A'Jones is to not play CF, and here - he won't, at least, not that long, or until Maybin is ready. So over that five year span, thinking about all that, and with the prospects of DHing - YES.

So how much better do you think he'd be? I think he'd be better too, but not worth all of the extra money he'd require. In fact, I think the difference in production will not be as great as you seem to think. We'll see.

[JonBenke]

A lot of White Sox fans call Granderson "the one who got away".
My friends all like him (new york, atlanta, florida, california, pennsylvania), but to say he is an elite player .. I don't think he is, and neither do they.

Three team deals, hey, maybe we turn A'Jones to Texas for Mark Teixeira - what about that, does that all of a sudden change the arguement of some?

[JonBenke]

I think the difference in production will not be as great as you seem to think. We'll see.
I am not arguing money, because that's all on Mike Ilitch, and if he really wants to win or not. It wasn't when the Wings were winning, we'll see.

Do you think that Granderson can put up, over the next five years, numbers anywhere similar to A'Jones, in that same time? I don't he can, honestly.

Again, I think Granderson is a great, great player .. but he is not an elite player, which even at his age, for the next five years, I still think Jones is.

[Yoda]

Who said Granderson was elite?

[PuNk42AE]

Oh youre just blind because he's the golden boy!! You need to learn to stop being such a homer!! "lol"

Pff Euph is the Homer, and i'm the Hammer.

[PuNk42AE]

I am not arguing money, because that's all on Mike Ilitch, and if he really wants to win or not. It wasn't when the Wings were winning, we'll see.

Do you think that Granderson can put up, over the next five years, numbers anywhere similar to A'Jones, in that same time? I don't he can, honestly.

Again, I think Granderson is a great, great player .. but he is not an elite player, which even at his age, for the next five years, I still think Jones is.

Granderson isn't going to be Elite, but I don't see him being a #3 type CF. In my opinion he'll be a good player, but not something of high status who whenever they smell a rumor "GRANDERSON COULD BE TRADED FOR...." I think he'll end up being like Higginson overall.

[Yoda]

I am not arguing money, because that's all on Mike Ilitch, and if he really wants to win or not. It wasn't when the Wings were winning, we'll see.

Do you think that Granderson can put up, over the next five years, numbers anywhere similar to A'Jones, in that same time? I don't he can, honestly.

Again, I think Granderson is a great, great player .. but he is not an elite player, which even at his age, for the next five years, I still think Jones is.

Well, let's see. Over the last 5 years, Jones has had an average OPS of .876. Granderson's minor leage average OPS was .878. This is certainly not an exact science, but yes, I think Curtis has the ability blossom into that type of hitter.

What are you using to conclude that he won't? Just the fact that he's a Tiger and doesn't play in Atlanta?

[DaYooperASBDT]

I think Jones would burn us just like Juan Gonzalez did.

PS - I will never forgive Randy Smith for trading Catalonotto. Not until the day I die. And possibly a while past that point .....

[PuNk42AE]

Everytime I think about that trade I cringe.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Everytime I think about that trade I cringe.

I cringe, rub the bruised spots, vomit, and fire another 15 rounds at my autographed 8x10 of Randy Smith (the one posted at the base of the tree that all the neighbors' dogs urinate upon).

But really, I'm not bitter ...... :cheeky:

[PuNk42AE]

"Fearing they would be unable to meet González' rising salary demands, Texas elected to trade him in the postseason, eventually settling on a deal with the Detroit Tigers. On November 2, 1999, he was traded with Danny Patterson and Gregg Zaun to Detroit for Frank Catalanotto, Francisco Cordero, Bill Haselman, Gabe Kapler, Justin Thompson and Alan Webb."

Honestly if Millen made a trade it'd be exactly like that. 'Lets trade Barry, Moore and Morton for Reggie White.

[Euphdude]

Wow - so many prospect busts in that trade.

[theycallmeKat]

Keep Granderson!

[Yoda]

Word. Nice quote.

[Just Some Dude]

If it was a 3 way trade.. ATL getting Granderson, Texas getting Jones, and the Tigers getting Teixeira (with a contract extension)I would be happy with that.

Who would play Cf you ask? Who friggin cares we have Mark Teixeira :)

[Yoda]

Hell, stick Omar out there for a year. I'd take that deal.

[Shaggy Ry]

Again I think it is cost prohibative. In today's baseball environment you are not only trading the player, but you are trading the contract. We have Granderson on the cheap for five more years and though he might not be Teixeria or Jones calibre even at his peak, I think we'll get tremendous bang for our buck from Curtis over the next five seasons.

I love Teixeira and Andruw Jones, but Jones is a FA after the 'o7 season and Mark is a firstsacker and a FA after 'o8.

Is Maybin still projected as a centerfielder? From what I understand he's got the frame that should really fill out as he matures and that he is destined for a corner spot and middle of the order thumper(Vlad Guerrero-esque).

[Yoda]

Is Maybin still projected as a centerfielder? From what I understand he's got the frame that should really fill out as he matures and that he is destined for a corner spot and middle of the order thumper(Vlad Guerrero-esque).

Yes but even if he does fill out he should still be plenty fast and athletic enough to play center for at least another 10 years or so. I don't it'll be a problem until he reaches his 30's. As long as he doesn't go Bonds on us or something.

[chasfh]

I am also not on board with a Granderson for Jones trade, straight up. I don't think it would be straight up, either. Which side do you think would be more expected to add something to make the deal? I'd think it would be us. I don't think Dombrowski gets talked into that.

Besides, In addition to Jones' probable decline and the move to a park that's death to RH home run hitters -- Jones' career indices are 96 and 92 for doubles and triples, but 179 for home runs -- another factor to consider is the superiority of the American League. He'd probably lose at least double digits on OPS just on the transition.

I would be very surprised, shocked even, if Dombrowski made this trade happen.

[jadefalcon]

I'd only trade Grandy if we end up with the obvious upper hand in the deal (Grandy for Tex, or Grandy for Markakis, etc.). However, I really want to see Grandy and Maybin in the same outfield for the next ten years for selfish reasons.

[zachcadillac]

I'd only trade Grandy if we end up with the obvious upper hand in the deal (Grandy for Tex, or Grandy for Markakis, etc.). However, I really want to see Grandy and Maybin in the same outfield for the next ten years for selfish reasons.

I'm not sure Granderson-for-Markakis is a clear win. I think it's a lateral move, with a probable downgrade in centerfield defense.

[JonBenke]

I'm not sure Granderson-for-Markakis is a clear win.
Especially since it follows a deal for Big Tex :bandit:

[tiger337]

I am also not on board with a Granderson for Jones trade, straight up. I don't think it would be straight up, either. Which side do you think would be more expected to add something to make the deal? I'd think it would be us. I don't think Dombrowski gets talked into that.

Besides, In addition to Jones' probable decline and the move to a park that's death to RH home run hitters -- Jones' career indices are 96 and 92 for doubles and triples, but 179 for home runs -- another factor to consider is the superiority of the American League. He'd probably lose at least double digits on OPS just on the transition.

I would be very surprised, shocked even, if Dombrowski made this trade happen.

This is how would analyze the trade as well. Jones in Comerica Park over the next few years likely would not be the same Jones. I wouldn't make this deal.

[Barrie]

I wouldn't make that trade, the reason is Granderson hits lefthanded. Also, I don't see a real big need to add Jones to the lineup. We have enough righthanded hitting on the team already.

[zachcadillac]

I am also not on board with a Granderson for Jones trade, straight up. I don't think it would be straight up, either. Which side do you think would be more expected to add something to make the deal? I'd think it would be us. I don't think Dombrowski gets talked into that.

Besides, In addition to Jones' probable decline and the move to a park that's death to RH home run hitters -- Jones' career indices are 96 and 92 for doubles and triples, but 179 for home runs -- another factor to consider is the superiority of the American League. He'd probably lose at least double digits on OPS just on the transition.

I would be very surprised, shocked even, if Dombrowski made this trade happen.

I agree. Carroll wrote the piece as if Atlanta would take any warm body in return for Jones, which seems farfetched. I think Granderson has significant trade value, but I'm not sure he'd yield Jones by himself. Furthermore, I like Granderson's offensive skill set, defense, and bargain-basement price. I won't argue Jones would make us better next year, but to justify the trade we'd have to secure an extension, and I'm not sure I'd want Jones after this summer.

[kwales]

Just the thought of this trade makes me feel ill.

Yes, most of why I wouldn't want this trade is because I'm thinking with my heart. I'm crazy about that young man.

However, it just doesn't make sense to me to trade a very good center fielder with a small contract for years to come for Jones and the price tag he would come with.

[djhutch]

Why does it have to be for Jones? LaRoche was mentioned as well. What about Granderson for LaRoche?

[grendel]

the Tigers would be smart to save their money for a top-shelf free agent infielder

These are the best hitting infielders out there right now (2006 Stats).

Player POS Age Bats OBP SLG OPS
Aubrey Huff 3B 30 Left .344 .469 .813
Fernando Tatis 3B 31 Right .313 .500 .813
Doug Mientkiewicz 1B 32 Left .359 .411 .770
Craig Wilson 1B 30 Right .314 .446 .760

The Best Free Agent Relievers (2006 Stats).


Player POS Age Throws ERA WHIP
Kent Mercker RP 38 Left 4.13 1.38
Scott Schoeneweis RP 33 Left 4.88 1.39
Eddie Guardado RP 36 Left 3.89 1.54
Dustin Hermanson RP 34 Right 4.05 1.05
Keith Foulke RP 34 Right 4.35 1.19
Dan Kolb RP 31 Right 4.84 1.51

[tater6]

Relax everyone, this is never going to happen.

[baseball3]

Anyone think Jones could play LF, then, in a year or so, be moved to 1B due to the bad "body factor" he has ?

Texeria for Granderson net works for me, but, like the above posters, i do NOT see this happening.....

Yes, Atlanta would trade jones in a heartbeat for any living, breathing, decent player, ESPECIALLY if a "Rodney" type reliever were thrown in the mix....

[Tigercub33]

Relax everyone, this is never going to happen.

I agree. Leyland and DD seem to really value character/clubhouse guys. Granderson fits that bill quite well. He is one of the faces of the rebirth of this franchise.

If Tex could be had WITH an extension, I would do that instantly though. Infante to CF then and Thames traded for Church.

[Tyrus]

On paper, trading Jones for Grandy straight-up is a no-brainer. Jones is clearly a better player, while Granderson is still a "prospect" in that regard. He had a decent rookie year, with some really good "D," but he hasn't actually "done it" the way Jones has.

However, put me down as being against this trade. As pointed out, there are salary and clubhouse issues to consider.

Jones always struck me as having million-dollar swing -- and a Karim Garcia brain.

[sabretooth]

I am also not on board with a Granderson for Jones trade, straight up. I don't think it would be straight up, either. Which side do you think would be more expected to add something to make the deal? I'd think it would be us. I don't think Dombrowski gets talked into that.

Besides, In addition to Jones' probable decline and the move to a park that's death to RH home run hitters -- Jones' career indices are 96 and 92 for doubles and triples, but 179 for home runs -- another factor to consider is the superiority of the American League. He'd probably lose at least double digits on OPS just on the transition.

I would be very surprised, shocked even, if Dombrowski made this trade happen.

Grandy is already on a par fielding-wise with Jones, and will probably be better pretty soon and into the future. Then again, everybody's saying that Maybin will be the CF, so as long as we're talking about unrealized potential, is the potential for becoming a better fielder really a clear edge for Grandy?

Offensively, I can see Grandy potentially matching or beating Jones in terms of average, walks, doubles and triples into the future. However, Granderson's no sure thing as a hitter. He crashed for several months in the latter part of 2006, and has trouble with the curveball. Not good for his power-hitting potential. I think Granderson will be a good all-around hitter, but he has holes that need to be addressed, particularly if he's going to be on a par or superior to Jones offensively.

Jones has had between an 830 and 900 OPS for his whole career. He had one off-year out of the last 10, but was still at 833 OPS. Mostly he has been in the upper 800s.

Jones has had very strong HR power, and I don't see this changing dramatically, even with the change from Turner to Comerica. I believe Jones would still hit 30+ HR as a Tiger. In fact, given his recent upswing in HR power, Jones could become one of those HR monsters in his 30's, similar to Luis Gonzales and Barry Bonds. Jones doesn't have any major weaknesses offensively.

The salary issue is a real one, even if I'm not writing the checks. I don't want to see Illitch ruin his bottom line or hamstring himself with a bloated contract that doesn't pan out.

Bottom line, I probably wouldn't make this trade unless the Braves were to pick up some of Jones' contract, but I would seriously entertain it.

Chas, I'm not clear on the AL superiority vs. the NL. What is this difference, and how does it affect players who switch between leagues? This is the one statistic that could change my mind, if it were really significant.

[Oblong]

Remember that the source didn't say it was a Granderson and Jones trade in the works. It said a 3 way was beign discussed and threw out some names of those involved.

[baseball3]

Maybe Salty was one of those names as well ?

[Tigercub33]

Remember that the source didn't say it was a Granderson and Jones trade in the works. It said a 3 way was beign discussed and threw out some names of those involved.

The source also talked about Andy LaRoche, not Adam. I am not sure why the Braves are trying to deal away one of the Dodgers prospects. If this is soemthing new that can be done, DD really needs to start moving some of Clevland's and Minnesota's talent.

[baseballglove007]

Why does everyone discussing trading every player under 30? Young, role players are the backbone of the team.

[baseball3]

1)............Because it's fun
2)............Because we have NO LIFE and need BASEBALL discussion, we're addicts !!!

[Yoda]

Because you always have to be open to upgrading and Curtis loses a lot of value when he gets moved to left. Its worthy of discussion.

[pyrotigers]

In regards to Laroche:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7253

Was his magic ADD pill fueled improvement last year for real? It's not like he's some proven stud everyone is salivating over.

[Shaggy Ry]

The D-Rays moving Rocco Baldelli just makes so much more sense. I could see Andruw Jones dealt for young pitching, and then some of that pitching dealt to TB for Baldelli.

Dombrowski has a history of trading closers does he not? Believing they are over valued and that you can get a team to drastically overpay for a good one. Would he move Zumaya? Rodney would be much more likely, but would have much less value as well.

[tater6]

Curtis loses a lot of value when he gets moved to left. No he doesn't. If he can play CF for us he could play it for anyone else too.

[Tigercub33]

No he doesn't. If he can play CF for us he could play it for anyone else too.

If Granderson is moved to LF FOR THE TIGERS he loses his value over being a CFer FOR THE TIGERS. Thus, it would make sense to deal him while his value is high as a CFer rather than as a Corner OFer.

Craig Monroe can play CF too, but his value tag is placed as that of a LFer and as such has a significantly lower value.

[Yoda]

No he doesn't. If he can play CF for us he could play it for anyone else too.

That's my point. He's a very good CFer. He'd have more value in a trade as a CFer than he'd have as a LFer for us I think. Or enough that it would be something to consider.

[baseball3]

Yoda,

I couldn't agree with you more. When DD moves him to LF, he becomes worth a whole lot less to the Tigers, but, as a CF, is extremely valuable to another team. He'd be a perfect fit for the $$$$$less Braves at the moment, but, as pointed out above, Rocco makes much more sense and is an easier deal to get done than Curtis!! I'd much rather have Crawford, anyway. Could you imagine the athleticism with he and Maybin in the OF ?

Let's see what happens, should be fun ....................

[Tigercub33]

Yoda,

I couldn't agree with you more. When DD moves him to LF, he becomes worth a whole lot less to the Tigers, but, as a CF, is extremely valuable to another team. He'd be a perfect fit for the $$$$$less Braves at the moment, but, as pointed out above, Rocco makes much more sense and is an easier deal to get done than Curtis!! I'd much rather have Crawford, anyway. Could you imagine the athleticism with he and Maybin in the OF ?

Let's see what happens, should be fun ....................

Wouldn't it be a similar situation with Baldelli though. He would lose his value as a CFer if he was moved to LF.

I am hoping Curtis can show 25 HR power and actually start to swipe soem bags. If he displays more plate discipline and gets a bit more of a power stroke I think he could be a decent LFer for the Tigers.

[Yoda]

I don't think they're at all interested in trading him, I'm just playing devil's advocate. Dave would have to be wow'ed. I think Granderson will have a lot mroe value after this next season.

[baseball3]

I was indicating that Baldelli would be an easier trade for the Braves to make, I was NOT advocating that WE trade for Rocco...........wayyyyyyyyy tooooooooooooooo injury prone for my liking.

I would, however, trade net Curtis for Crawford..................

[Tigercub33]

I was indicating that Baldelli would be an easier trade for the Braves to make, I was NOT advocating that WE trade for Rocco

Oh ok.

I agree with you.

[chasfh]

Chas, I'm not clear on the AL superiority vs. the NL. What is this difference, and how does it affect players who switch between leagues? This is the one statistic that could change my mind, if it were really significant.

There is a really great analysis of this phenomenon on Hardball Times (part 1 (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-the-al-really-superior/), part 2 (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-the-al-really-superior-part-2/) and part 3 (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-the-al-really-superior-part-3/)). Don't get bummed out with the final paragraph in part 3.

[zachcadillac]

Why does it have to be for Jones? LaRoche was mentioned as well. What about Granderson for LaRoche?
Granderson is more valuable than LaRoche. First basemen aren't all that hard to find, although the Tigers are trying to prove otherwise.

[zachcadillac]

Because you always have to be open to upgrading and Curtis loses a lot of value when he gets moved to left. Its worthy of discussion.

That's why it's dumb to simply shuffle Granderson to left for Maybin, whose bat plays better in a corner spot. I don't know why it is automatically assumed that Granderson will be moving. What has he done to deserve such inconsideration?

[DTroppens]

I have read the first post here. I ave read nothing else so I know I'm way behind here in terms of the development of the conversation.

If this was a true option this is a clear no-brainer for the Tigers. You have to do it. Granderson probably was my favorite Tiger but this is a steal in every sense of the word.

[DTroppens]

Here's how I look at it.

1. Granderson shows potential in the field...
Jones has won a ton of gold gloves and is apparently a pretty awesome defensive player. Jones is better.
2. Granderson looks like he can be a 20-30 HR hitter in a few years time.
Jones hits 30 in his sleep and should be a traditional 40-guy the next few years barring injury.
3. Granderson is young and will develop into a fine player.
Jones IS STILL young and already is a fine player.
4. Granderson may be an all-star one day.
Jones is an All-Star and has a shot at the HOF if he remains healthy.

He's always been healthy. Played at least 153 games every year since his first season - at least 560 ABs every year since then. Okay Granderson has more base stealing potential now, but that's marginal even if that is a true argument.

I don't see a negative in this trade at all.

[Shaggy Ry]

$$$

Andruw Jones will make $14M (give or take) this upcoming season and will look for a Vernon Wells-esque free agent deal (will actually look to eclipse it, with Boras being his agent) all the while Granderson will be under the arbitration umbrella for the next five years and will probably make $20M max in those five years. For arguments sake say Granderson offers 60% of Andruw Jones output, you cannot justify paying somebody almost 10x as much money for 40% more results.

I'm certainly not saying Granderson is or ever will be better than Andruw. Heck, if we could somehow move Ordonez for nothing (just to move his contract), I might even be open to such a trade. However nobody will touch Magglio with a ten-foot pole.

Bonderman is locked up and Verlander and Zumaya are five years away from the big money. Inge was secured as well, with Monroe and Casey nothing more than place holders. Basically the person such a trade would effect the most would be Carlos Guillen who would certainly be heading elsewhere. With Guillen a switch hitter and Granderson a lefty, we'd be further stacking our line-up full of RHB.

Now if they were willing to make a Magglio Ordonez and Fernando Rodney for Andruw Jones deal...

[Yoda]

1. Granderson shows potential in the field...
Jones has won a ton of gold gloves and is apparently a pretty awesome defensive player. Jones is better.
2. Granderson looks like he can be a 20-30 HR hitter in a few years time.
Jones hits 30 in his sleep and should be a traditional 40-guy the next few years barring injury.
3. Granderson is young and will develop into a fine player.
Jones IS STILL young and already is a fine player.
4. Granderson may be an all-star one day.
Jones is an All-Star and has a shot at the HOF if he remains healthy.


I agree with the majority of your post, except a couple things... Jones is not longer a superior fielder to Granderson. If he does have any advantage, it will beshort lived. He's losing range and Granderson is just about to begin his 2nd full season in a park that isn't easy to play in. I don't think Jones has much of an advantage there at all.

And Jones will definitely be more of a power threat. But I think Granderson will be much closer to matching his overall production than a lot of people think. I really think people underrate Granderson strongly at times. He has a chance to become one of the top 5 or 6 CFers in the game if he stays there.

[Biff Mayhem]

First basemen aren't all that hard to find, although the Tigers are trying to prove otherwise.

I think DD seeks talent and clubhouse demeanor. It's not that he isn't searching for a high quality 1b as much as he's looking for clubhouse role players that have the ability to play the postion. That's why I think people like UUU and DY were shown the door.

[Biff Mayhem]

That's why it's dumb to simply shuffle Granderson to left for Maybin, whose bat plays better in a corner spot. I don't know why it is automatically assumed that Granderson will be moving. What has he done to deserve such inconsideration?

I'm not saying Granderson can't handle center but Maybin runs like a gazelle.

[Yoda]

That's why it's dumb to simply shuffle Granderson to left for Maybin, whose bat plays better in a corner spot. I don't know why it is automatically assumed that Granderson will be moving. What has he done to deserve such inconsideration?

I don't think he's done anything to deserve a demotion, but they need to put their best CFer in centerfield. It would be foolish not to.

[DTroppens]

ShaggyRy,
Absolutely you can justify doing just that. This isn't numbers. We don't expect 10 homers to go to 100 because he makes 10 times the amount. If I can get 40% increase production that would actually be more than I would expect. I'd drool over such improvement.

Defense dramatically declining....
.995 fielding percentage (1 error every 200 attempts)
range is higher than the league average

Oh and he's also won the gold glove basically since it's existence.

And you have Maybin coming. If he's half of his potential, this is going to be a steal.

[Shaggy Ry]

If Maybin can play even above average CF and hit up to "best case scenario" projections you play him in CF and trade Granderson for a better hitting corner OF option if Granderson's bat doesn't move to the corners too well. Isn't the argument here that Guillen is so valuable because of his offense from the shortstop position? Wouldn't Maybin's offense be that much more spectacular if it was coming from a centerfielder??

I love how we all talk like Cammy is a sure thing after one year of Low-A professional baseball.

[estrepe1]

Can't others just have a difference of opinion? Why do you feel the need to come off as a condescending ***? Santa put coal in your stocking this year??

Sometimes Jon just gets that way. Its alright.

Trading Granderson for Jones would be an okay idea as long as they had Jones for at least 5-6 more years. Also don't expect him to be Andruw Jones the Gold Glover.

[Yoda]

I love how we all talk like Cammy is a sure thing after one year of Low-A professional baseball.

Well he's probably only 5 months of baseball away from making his debut. You'll be able to decide for yourself. I wouldn't call anyone a sure thing but watching this kid play is a lot of fun. And pretty much every scout in the world agrees that he has nearly limitless potential. There are very few players like that in the game.

[tiger337]

Here's how I look at it.

1. Granderson shows potential in the field...
Jones has won a ton of gold gloves and is apparently a pretty awesome defensive player. Jones is better.


I don't think this is true anymore:


Granderson did slightly better than Jones on the Probabilistic Model for Range stat and he did much better on Zone Rating and RAA.

Jones did Rank #2 and Granderson #5 on the Fielding Bible Awards.

Jones also ranked a little better on the Fan Fielding Survey: 78 to 71.


I think Granderson is an excellent center fielder and I believe the idea that he's more suited to left field is just an old label which doesn't fit anymore.

[estrepe1]

Defense dramatically declining....
.995 fielding percentage (1 error every 200 attempts)
range is higher than the league average

Oh and he's also won the gold glove basically since it's existence.


I don't know if Jones defense is dramatically declining. I think it has declined. You can't tell that from fielding percentage which goes from a bad metric with infielders to a terrible one for outfielders.

He is actually very good still though. Just not the best CF in the Majors like he was for a while.

GG's are won by offense and reputation.

Like I said above....

If I am guaranteed 5-6 more years of Andruw Jones I would make the deal. Simply because I believe that Jones will outperform Granderson offensively.

I think Markakis will also outperform Granderson offensively but I don't think Markakis will be able to handle CF.

[DTroppens]

Tiger337,
Two out of your three points proved I'm either right or things are equal. And if defense is equal (or even a bit lesser) I'd make this trade in a heartbeat. And even the issue you brought up that Granderson was stronger, looking at the range factors Jones is still above average.

This is a no brainer. If people here honestly think the Tigers have a dramatic downside to this trade possibility, honestly don't know what to say. Heck, by the time Jones is King Kong Bundy with his range (as people are seeminlgy suggesting is going to happen) hopefully Maybin will be here patrolling center. But I don't even care about that right now. For next season I can't see how this is a bad trade.

[DTroppens]

I know that Gold Gloves are by reputation. That's one reason why I put it last on the list. Still, if he was putrid or of someone was strong enough defensively in the NL by a great deal, that wouldn't have happened. Heck, you can argue that Rogers and Pudge may have won their awards this year more on reputation - although both are still very good with the gloves.

I like Granderson a ton. I think he's going to be a very good ball player. But this is a trade for a guy that's at his prime now for a guy that may be there in a few years. This team can contend and win a World Series with some moves. I honestly think if we stay where we are this team won't match last year's totals because this team clearly peaked and maximized its potential from what I saw out there talent-wise and what I expected health-wise. This move makes the team significantly better offensively and - even at worst - only hurts the team a tiny bit defensively. And that's giving up a ton of ground for me to say that (because I don't think that's honestly true). If it really is out there - do it.

[tiger337]

Tiger337,
Two out of your three points proved I'm either right or things are equal.



Your post made it sound like Granderson was not a good defender (and only had potential) and that Jones was clearly better defensivelty. That's not true. Granderson finishes ahead of Jones statistically. Jones finishes ahead on subjective measures which are probably somewhat influenced by past reputation.





This is a no brainer. If people here honestly think the Tigers have a dramatic downside to this trade possibility, honestly don't know what to say. Heck, by the time Jones is King Kong Bundy with his range (as people are seeminlgy suggesting is going to happen) hopefully Maybin will be here patrolling center. But I don't even care about that right now. For next season I can't see how this is a bad trade.

I don't think anybody said there was a dramatic downside and probably most agree that Jones would be better next year. However, unlike you, there are some who do care what happens after next year.

[Yoda]

Trop - Most people are saying they wouldn't do an even trade because the salaries are so far apart. In fantasy baseall, heck yeah I'd make that trade. But I don't think it would be a good idea. Plus he's about to become a FA.

[estrepe1]

Why does it have to be for Jones? LaRoche was mentioned as well. What about Granderson for LaRoche?

No.

[estrepe1]

I don't think anybody said there was a dramatic downside and probably most agree that Jones would be better next year. However, unlike you, there are some who do care what happens after next year.

This is a good point. Will Jones be as good as Granderson 5 years from now?

I think its an important question for which I don't have a good answer.

[Shaggy Ry]

Well he's probably only 5 months of baseball away from making his debut. You'll be able to decide for yourself. I wouldn't call anyone a sure thing but watching this kid play is a lot of fun. And pretty much every scout in the world agrees that he has nearly limitless potential. There are very few players like that in the game.


I wasn't taking a shot at anybody or the collective, as I'm in the same boat and I've never even seen the kid play. Maybe it's just because we haven't had a highly touted positional prospect in awhile with Gabe Kapler (to a lesser extent) and Juan Encarnacion being the last two I remember. Gibby was the next Mickey Mantle though wasn't he? That was a bit before my time though.

Other teams can have can't miss all-stars, why can't we? I mean even recently Stephen Drew and Rickie Weeks were can't miss from the moment they were drafted and both are now in the show with great expectations as were Zimmerman, Gordon, Delmon Young, David Wright, Jeremy Hermida and Prince Fielder off the top of my head...

[JonBenke]

Jones always struck me as having million-dollar swing -- and a Karim Garcia brain.
heh?

Yoda, and I said about the money issue .. over the years, money wasn't much of an issue for the Wings, as long as they were winning.

Why not the Tigers - now?

Now, of course, if Ilitich said he wouldn't pay for an extension or up the payroll to accommodate A'Jones, yes, you make for an interesting point.

[Buddha]

I'm not saying Granderson can't handle center but Maybin runs like a gazelle.

If he runs on all fours how the hell does he catch the damn ball?

[Biff Mayhem]

If he runs on all fours how the hell does he catch the damn ball?

Well, to be polite I left out the part about his beaver teeth.

[DTroppens]

ShaggyRy,
I'm not even talking about Maybin for next year. I'm talking maybe two years from now or three years even. My point is that when Jones possibly could be reaching a decline, Maybin should be ready.

Tiger337,
Where did I say I don't care about after next year? He's going to be 30 this year. How does making a trade for a 30-year old All-Star reflect I'm not concerned about the future after this season? He's not another Sheffield. He's 30. And I never said Granderson was a bad fielder. All my points are pretty much how I feel about Granderson and would've stated (and actually probably stated) on this message board five months ago. I think he's plays the game with extreme intellegence and seems to be one of our smarter players on the squad from what I've seen. Heck, he was my favorite Tiger last year. I love the guy. This is how I view his defense. I think it is slightly above average already. I think he shows great range. I think he's solid with balls hit in front of him but could learn how to take better lines on balls hit diagonally behind him - of couse an issue with many well established vets. I also think that's something with time he'll be very good with as well. I think even through all his strikeouts, he works counts better than most give him credit for. Sometimes I think people equate Ks with lack of intellegence of lack of discipline. I hardly think Granderson qualifies as that - or will in the near future. Even during many of his Ks I think he presents very solid at bats.

This is not a knock on Granderson. This is an established star that has a lot to give a team for many years yet for a guy that's still working his way up the ropes. Will he reach Jones' level one day? He may. I'm guessing he'll fall a bit short though. But right now it's fair to say I think Jones will be at that level at least a few years and should be a very good player for 4-5 years (the level of time you can realistically can expect to hold a player these days).

Again,
As much as I like Granderson and think he has potential and has already developed on some of that potential, I think Jones brings us more NOW and even through the next 2-3 years. And in that time Maybin should be ready. And if he's not, that's still time for us to address that issue when it arrives.

[DTroppens]

If money is an issue then I don't know what to say. Attendance was great at Comerica Park. The team was successful. We were given the impression when the Tigers were contenders, (barring being ridiculous) that ownership will take necessary measures to contend. This doesn't seem ridiculous to me if you truly want to contend. Will Jones bring 10 times the production for 10-times the salary? Of course not but you don't make deals like this thinking that will happen. This is baseball - not a math problem.

[Shaggy Ry]

Well, to be polite I left out the part about his beaver teeth.
Wynona's got herself a big brown beaver
And she shows it off to all her friends.
One day, you know, that beaver tried to leave her,
So she caged him up with cyclone fence.
Along came lou with the old baboon
And said "recognize that smell?"
"smells like seven layers,
That beaver eats taco bell."
Now rex he was a texan out of new orleans
And he travelled with the carnival shows.
He ran bumper cars, sucked cheap cigars
And he candied up his nose.
He got wind of the big brown beaver
So he though he'd take himself a peek,
But the beaver was quick

And grabbed him by the kiwis.
Now he ain't pissed for a week.
(and a half!)
Now wynona took her big brown beaver,
And she stuck him up in the air.
Said "i sure do love this big brown beaver
And i wish i did have a pair."
Now the beaver onces slept for seven days
And it gave us all an awful fright.
So i tickled his chin and i gave him a pinch
And the bastard tried to bite me.
Wynona loved her big brown beaver
And she stroked him all the time.
She pricked her finger one day and it
Occurred to her she might have a porcupine.

[Yoda]

That just made me laugh out loud. I haven't heard that in forever.

[estrepe1]

There is a question of whether Maybin will develop into a great hitter or not. I am optimistic but it is not a given.

[Tigercub33]

If money is an issue then I don't know what to say. Attendance was great at Comerica Park. The team was successful. We were given the impression when the Tigers were contenders, (barring being ridiculous) that ownership will take necessary measures to contend. This doesn't seem ridiculous to me if you truly want to contend. Will Jones bring 10 times the production for 10-times the salary? Of course not but you don't make deals like this thinking that will happen. This is baseball - not a math problem.

Contract length is also an issue. There is no assurance that Jones would stay in Detroit even if the Tigers paid him above market rate. Granderson is with the Tigers for 5 more years - unless he retires - they control his rights.

Long term, holding on to Granderson, or trading him for a player in a similar contract situation is the smarter move.

[tiger337]

Tiger337,
Where did I say I don't care about after next year?

You talked about a scenario involving Maybin and Jones in the future and then you said "I don't care about that now. For next season, I don't see how that's a bad trade". I inferred from that that you were only thinking about the trade in terms of next year and not caring about future years.

[Biff Mayhem]

There is a question of whether Maybin will develop into a great hitter or not. I am optimistic but it is not a given.

He should show more power this year now that he is out of Whitecapland National Park.

[estrepe1]

He should show more power this year now that he is out of Whitecapland National Park.

This is true but he also had a high strikeout rate and some struggles with offspeed stuff (according to scouts).

Its just not a given that he will be a special hitter. I still think he is the best prospect in the system and that he has a bright future in front of him but there are no guarantees.

[tiger337]

If money is an issue then I don't know what to say. Attendance was great at Comerica Park. The team was successful. We were given the impression when the Tigers were contenders, (barring being ridiculous) that ownership will take necessary measures to contend.

Leyland said they had some interest in Nixon but that he might cost too much (this was here a while ago. sorry I don't have the link). This suggests to me that they are still on a moderate budget and need to be careful about the contracts they take on.

[Shaggy Ry]

Gary Sheffield at $14M per season is a necessary measure, of course Percival and Young came off the books. However Nate, Monroe, Inge, Bonderman were all due arbitration raises as well. I think we're right around the $100M payroll right now, a little less, though probably first or second in our division.

Has anybody in our division added a player the calibre of Gary Sheffield? Sure the Yanks and Boston are going nuts, but we can't even try to compete with them financially.

From what I can find we were 14th overall last season with an $82M payroll, 6th amongst the AL, behind, Yanks, Bosox, LAA, White Sox and Mariners. We'll probably fall between 8-12 next season given this off-season spending(acquiring Jones would likely put us in top 5).

[DTroppens]

Just curious - do people think if we stay with the team we have right now we are a clear WSeries favorite? A playoff contender? Just a good team?

I think a lot of this question also revolves around what each of us think about the Tigers entering the season right now with what we have.

I think we are an 80-something win team and probably no higher than 87 wins. Make me pick a number, I'd say 85. That's a possible scenario that could get us in the playoffs but probably looking out and not in. I think this team got a bit lucky with injuries and catching lightning in the bottle. I look at it as a team that isn't what it was at the season's start but not where it was at the season's end. It's a decent team that probably finish above .500 but it will take a lot of breaks to match the production it got via the bodies they have or because of injury. I think the pitching will probably do a bit worse. Verlander's tired arm concerns me. I can't start rattling off the exact pitchers but there is a tendency when a young player has this, their next season could be a bit of a struggle. Even if it's not an issue, I think it will be hard for him to match his numbers. Rogers probably won't as well while Bonderman will be right at par, as will Robertson. The pen, while a strength, probably won't match last year's outstanding production. Both will be clearly above average in baseball but not at the levels they were last year.

Offensively, I think we overproduced just a tad as well. I said a ton last year I thought our offense was what it had been in year's past. I think it was with one exception - it was healthy for the most part the entire year. That created a bit more production than I expected. However, I think expecting that same health is unrealistic. I think Scheffield could aid that, but he also could be a part of that problem at his age and his wrist issues. It's probably safe to say he'll be healthy at least 120 games though, which means that should be a bit of an improvement. That said I don't think think this offense is better than last year at this point.

I think Jones does make it better - even if we have more injuries than a year ago. I think he gives you a guy you can throw in the outfield at least 145 times and probably have him DH for another 10. He's going to give you 150 games at a high level barring a fluke injury. And it probably would have to be a fluke injury looking at his past.

I think Jones can be the difference between 5-7 more wins. Those are critical victories for a team I have pegged at 85 wins - or even for someone who may have them pegged at 88 wins. I think if we want to be a CONTENDER and not just a contender if all the breaks go our way, this is the type of deal we must make. Of course, I was wrong last year about this team's talent. But generally I've been good about my assessments in the past and I think I'm about right on this one.

[baseball3]

I think we're a VERY good team who would be considered a World Series Contender along with about 5 other AL teams..................

Once a team gets into the playoffs, ANYTHING can and normally does happen...........As WE all know!

[Tigercub33]

DTrop, I think this is ignoring an obvious problem. The Tigers are not improving their positional weaknesses. When all is said and done (if this is Jones for Granderson) you still have holes at LF, 1B, possibly 2B and declining players at C and RF. If this is Jones for Granderson it does not help in any of those areas, areas that should be addresses before trying to upgrade CF - which is pretty good already.

[baseball3]

Sooooooooooooooooo, we're good at 3B as well, right ?

[estrepe1]

Inge is fine at 3B.

[Tigercub33]

Sooooooooooooooooo, we're good at 3B as well, right ?

Yes

(although I do note the sarcasm)

[DTroppens]

I think our "future" on this team is the arms. With this trade we do little to change that. We lose a guy that I think we all agree has a promising future but it's much easier to find position players in the future than arms. If we have the arms, we will always be a solid team. You can create the lineup through many other venues (as we did last year). I'd argue our lineup in many ways has mortaged the future. And I really don't think trading Jones for a younger Granderson further mortages it. I think getting Sheffield did that to a greater extent because it involved a young arm.

[Tigercub33]

I think our "future" on this team is the arms. With this trade we do little to change that. We lose a guy that I think we all agree has a promising future but it's much easier to find position players in the future than arms. If we have the arms, we will always be a solid team. You can create the lineup through many other venues (as we did last year). I'd argue our lineup in many ways has mortaged the future. And I really don't think trading Jones for a younger Granderson further mortages it. I think getting Sheffield did that to a greater extent because it involved a young arm.

Sheff fills a void now though, Jones does not. Jones's value to the Tigers is contingent upon Maybin developing into the player we are praying he does.

[baseball3]

Maybin will be fine, we just need to be patient with the arrival date.

Catching, 2B, corner OF, possibly ss and 1B (I guess) is where the concentration needs to be...........

[DTroppens]

Tigercub33,
You are right. It doesn't address those issues that you appear are issues but that doesn't mean it's not a trade definitely looking at. It doesn't create others as well by making it. It still upgrades your team in my mind. Unfortunately trades for these issues aren't on the board right now. Of course you could argue by making this trade you are bargaining away one of those players that could help make such a trade happen in the future, but I would argue it's still worth making. I would have to admit I never looked that far into the decision.

I don't necessarily think 2b is an issue as you did. In left and right we do have issues, but I think most would reguard Ordonez's bat makes up for his defense (which improved last year) liabilities.

I still think this is a no-brainer, but you brought up a point that I can say was something I didn't consider.

[DTroppens]

I see people posting about second base as being an issue. I am kind of currious to why that is. I know Polanco had the injury last season, but I don't see us making any serious moves to address depth issues there. Unless it was a large deal with many involved, we are not going to make any trades that will enhance that depth while keeping Polanco as a starter. I haven't followed the offseason as close as most of you so is there something I don't know?


An aging catcher is an issue but most likely we aren't going to address that horrendously serious until Pudge is gone. For the same reasons I posted about Polanco. That's just how it'll most likely be.

[DTroppens]

Tigercub33,
I won't agree with you necessarily there. I think Jones adds immediate value and that immediate value doesn't hinge on Maybin at all.

[berneree]

1) My feeling is Granderson will have a better OBP in 2007 than Andruw Jones.
Which is what Detroit really needs, considering the rest of the line-up.
2) If we did this trade straight up.....now who bats lead-off for the Tigers?

3) Andruw Jones will require a 7 yr/$140 million contract to hopefully resign him.
while Granderson will get $20 million over the next 5 yrs if he performs.
4) Granderson offers at least as good of defense....likely better.

5) Granderson is LH, Jones in RH.

6) Granderson is 4 years younger.

Jones offers more power, and a significantly better track record of hitting.

Just way too many reasons to say NO to Andruw Jones.

[Tigercub33]

Tigercub33,
I won't agree with you necessarily there. I think Jones adds immediate value and that immediate value doesn't hinge on Maybin at all.

This is true, but one must address current and future value when examining a trade I think.

Let me just say in the world of trades, I am much more in favor of upgrading LF by adding Ryan Church rather than upgrading CF by adding Andruw Jones. I think both upgrades could have similar influence and one is signicantly cheaper and has a better long range impact.

[JonBenke]

What is the overall opinion of everyone thinking that we need to add another NEW bat to the lineup, before spring training?

Not necessairly Andruw Jones, but .. just someone else, because I think we do, though I would rather see us add a NEW LF, but .. that's me, thoughts?

[DTroppens]

berneree,
1. I don't know if Granderson was an ideal leadoff hitter either. We never had that and I don't think the trade really destroys something that we had.
2. I'll take the production he'll give us this year and say it's worth that value. If we sign him long term, I'd still be pleased with the move regardless of the contract differences.
3. I don't necessarily know if agree with your defensive position.
4. Platoon issues - when you are talking about a potent bat I really don't care the side of the plate he's coming from. Jones is going to command respect and produce against either type pitcher. Looking at last year's numbers, the difference isn't even worth noting.
5. The age issue may make sense to me if we were talking 35-31. We're talking two guys who aren't 30 right now. And because Jones is older at these ages he's closer to his prime or actually in his prime. The four-year older argument I think is a big edge to making the trade instead of not making it.

And I notice how Jones' advantages that you see you just quickly mention without numbers. That's not an equal evaluation on your own post. Makes me think maybe you are trying to tell yourself that Granderson is not worth this trade because you simply don't want to make it instead of truly looking at both sides.

[tiger337]

What is the overall opinion of everyone thinking that we need to add another NEW bat to the lineup, before spring training?

Not necessairly Andruw Jones, but .. just someone else, because I think we do, though I would rather see us add a NEW LF, but .. that's me, thoughts?

I would like to see them sign Trot Nixon.

[DTroppens]

I think we need another bat because I don't see the offense producing as it did last year.

[DTroppens]

If we signed Trot Nixon that means he would:
A) help us.
B) not kill our pitching.

What has that guy batted against Detroit pitching over his career anyway?

[Tigercub33]

I would like to see them sign Trot Nixon.

As would I.

Also, as stated previously, I woudl like to see them try for Ryan Church.

Nixon & Church > Monroe & Thames

Patt Burrell would also be interesting

[DTroppens]

Ugh,
I'm checking right now.
.358 batting average, .447 OBP, .684 Slug.

And he's a lefty!

Tiger337,
That would be a very good signing.

[DaYooperASBDT]

I would like to see them sign Trot Nixon.

I like Nixon. A lot. Would be a perfect guy to platoon with Monroe/Thames in left.

[chasfh]

Trot Nixon? Why? Because he's a Tiger killer?

[tiger337]

Trot Nixon? Why? Because he's a Tiger killer?

No, because I think he'd be a good platoon partner for Monroe. He fields well too.

[Yoda]

I don't think we'd platoon those guys. Monroe would likely be gone if we signed Nixon.

[zachcadillac]

I think DD seeks talent and clubhouse demeanor. It's not that he isn't searching for a high quality 1b as much as he's looking for clubhouse role players that have the ability to play the postion. That's why I think people like UUU and DY were shown the door.

Well, it's silly to punt such an important position because the guy we have is friendly.

[Just Some Dude]

I like Nixon. A lot. Would be a perfect guy to platoon with Monroe/Thames in left.

Trot's best days are behind him now, I would rather get Huff to play LF.

[zachcadillac]

I don't think he's done anything to deserve a demotion, but they need to put their best CFer in centerfield. It would be foolish not to.

Fair enough, but who made the determination that Maybin is a better centerfielder? Granderson sets a high standard, and people act as if he's Alex Sanchez compared to Maybin.

DTrop, I think this is ignoring an obvious problem. The Tigers are not improving their positional weaknesses. When all is said and done (if this is Jones for Granderson) you still have holes at LF, 1B, possibly 2B and declining players at C and RF. If this is Jones for Granderson it does not help in any of those areas, areas that should be addresses before trying to upgrade CF - which is pretty good already.

I agree.

[tiger337]

I don't think we'd platoon those guys. Monroe would likely be gone if we signed Nixon.

I agree. I wouldn't mind a Nixon/Thames platoon either.

[Oblong]

What would happen if suddenly we found out Maybin was a white guy instead of a black guy?

They should do that as an experiment. Like on SNL with Eddie Murphy. I'd love to see how the profiling went.

[tiger337]

Trot's best days are behind him now, I would rather get Huff to play LF.

Huff's best days are behind him as well. Plus, he is a terrible fielder.

[Yoda]

Fair enough, but who made the determination that Maybin is a better centerfielder? Granderson sets a high standard, and people act as if he's Alex Sanchez compared to Maybin.

Maybin has been regarded as an even better CFer by several within the organization, and they've also made comments about him being Detroit's CFer of the future. It's unfair to Granderson but I think they're going to give Cameron every opportunity to play center. I've heard several people talking about this. Not only are scouts predicting it but people within the organization have commented off-record on it.

[Yoda]

What would happen if suddenly we found out Maybin was a white guy instead of a black guy?

They should do that as an experiment. Like on SNL with Eddie Murphy. I'd love to see how the profiling went.

I'm not sure what you mean. I do but I'm not sure what you'd expect the reactions to be.

[Oblong]

It touches on what was said previously, maybe in this thread, maybe in another. People are assuming Maybin's the CFer and I think it's because he's a athletic looking black guy, like Ken Griffey Jr.

The experiment would be a phony prospect but let 1/2 of the writers/experts think he's a black guy and the other 1/2 think he's a white guy.

[Yoda]

I think it has more to do with the fact that he's faster than Granderson and his instincts and skill level are just as good. And he'd have the strongest arm in the outfield by a long ways. It only makes sense to put him in the deepest part of the park.

[Oblong]

How do we know he's faster and that his instincts are better?

[Yoda]

How do we know he's faster and that his instincts are better?

Scouting reports. That's all I'm going off of. I can't really tell a difference when I see the two run but I'm not trained to notice things like that. He does look incredibly fast though so I have a hard time questioning their accuracy.

[tiger337]

Are these the same scouts who said that Granderson would be a 4th outfielder?

[Yoda]

Are these the same scouts who said that Granderson would be a 4th outfielder?

Who said that? That must have been a few years ago.

[billfer]

I think we need another bat because I don't see the offense producing as it did last year.

I think we need another bat because I don't see the run prevention performing like last year.

[DaYooperASBDT]

As for Trot Nixon, yeah he's always injured it seems, but perhaps we could get him on a one-year deal? A platoon of Nixon/Monroe would be a good bridge to Mr. Cameron Maybin, methinks?

Huff would be nice, as he provides another option at first base, but he will want a long, expensive deal, and could wind up being quite overpaid.

[DaYooperASBDT]

I would be nearly amazed if the Tigers moved Granderson. He has a good skill set and he's a smart guy.

And I hate to say it, but a black dude with "good media presence" is always attractive to an MLB club with a large minority market (like the Tigers). Now that Dmitri is gone, Curtis could become the new "face guy" for all of the Tigers' various promotions and TV spots.

[jeremiah_vc]

I don't understand why these "what if a trade that is actually never going to happen really happens" threads get so much attention. Does anybody here really think that Granderson will be traded?

[tiger337]

I don't understand why these "what if a trade that is actually never going to happen really happens" threads get so much attention. Does anybody here really think that Granderson will be traded?

I don't think anybody thinks he will be traded but this is better than the Guitar Hero thread.

[tigerkid23]

I don't understand why these "what if a trade that is actually never going to happen really happens" threads get so much attention. Does anybody here really think that Granderson will be traded?

Because, it's the end of December and we literally have nothing else to talk about besides this and Joel Zumaya's video game addiction.

I miss baseball...:bored:

[DaYooperASBDT]

I don't think anybody thinks he will be traded but this is better than the Guitar Hero thread.

And time better spent than what Lee does in HIS spare time ....

Could always bump the "Man Boobs" thread ...........
:cheeky:

[jeremiah_vc]

Points taken. I think I am going to buy the Guitar Hero game sometime soon. And I miss baseball, too.

[DaYooperASBDT]

I am really wearing out my MVP 2005 disk. And yes I have Sheff batting cleanup. Wish I had Zumaya, suppose I could fudge one of the players into a fake Zoom ..... What is really fun in that game is putting an all-righty lineup in Houston's ballpark! Thames just savages the lefties, and Pudge/Maggs/Inge/Polanco are all absolute worldbeaters versus LHP that year!

[DTroppens]

billfer,
If you read one of my previous posts I agreed with you there as well. I don't see us being as good offensively or defensively. I expect our staff to be above average, but not to the great degree they were last year.

[209A12]

Huff's best days are behind him as well. Plus, he is a terrible fielder.
That is ignorant. Typical of a Red Sox fan.

[Yoda]

That is ignorant. Typical of a Red Sox fan.

I thought what he said is pretty accurate. And 337 is a Tigers fan. No need to insult him. :)

[zachcadillac]

That is ignorant. Typical of a Red Sox fan.

This might be the worst post of all time.

[tiger337]

That is ignorant. Typical of a Red Sox fan.

You sound like a White Sox fan.

[Yoda]

209 is a good guy. I'm not sure what he sees in Huff though. He'll never be nearly as good as he used to be again.

[Oblong]

What i hate about the guitar hero stuff is I get "Jukebox hero" stuck in my head.

[chasfh]

No, because I think [Nixon would] be a good platoon partner for Monroe. He fields well too.

It's possible, I guess, but I'm not sure Trot Nixon is aging too well (he'll be 33 next year). He does have some terrific platoon splits, but one key thing I worry about is that his power is really dropping. Since 2003, against RHP, his ISO has gone from .305 to .216 to .195, and dropped to .132 in 2006. I'm afraid it's possible he might have Bobby Higginson disease, and I wouldn't want to see him further deteriorate on our watch.

Besides, Monroe does not have a clearly-established platoon split himself. Even though he had a clear on base advantage against LHP last year (.327 vs. .292), slugging is Monroe's reason for being, and he slugged .509 against righties and only .407 against lefties last year. Also, in 2004, Monroe was way better against righties (.314/.362/.519) than lefties (.256/.291/.431). So I think that regarding Monroe, platooning is the second option after replacement.

Pass on Nixon.

[baseball3]

Wonder how Monroe is sooooooo much better against RHP and he's a righty hitter? Usually, this is the other way around. Kind of like Sir Nasty (Rodney) being soooooooooo good against lefty hitters..........

Agreed, PASS on Nixon, wish we could get Luke Scott

[DaYooperASBDT]

Hey Chuck, should the Tigers give Neifi a few more AB's this year ???
:cheeky:

[DaYooperASBDT]

Wonder how Monroe is sooooooo much better against RHP and he's a righty hitter? Usually, this is the other way around. Kind of like Sir Nasty (Rodney) being soooooooooo good against lefty hitters..........

Agreed, PASS on Nixon, wish we could get Luke Scott

Monroe was better vs. RHP last year, but that may have been a fluke.

Luke Scott is going nowhere. Ryan Church is a possibility, if the Nats become reasonable with the price.

[estrepe1]

Who said that? That must have been a few years ago.

I remember reading it from people around here who shall remain nameless that he would be only a 4th OF even during his year in AAA.

[estrepe1]

209 is a good guy. I'm not sure what he sees in Huff though. He'll never be nearly as good as he used to be again.

Everyone is a good guy to you :classic:... other than maybe TM79.

What 209 said was pretty ignorant... especially since T337 is a big Tigers fan.

Huff is a terrible fielder and his best days likely are behind him. I see nothing wrong with either point.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Everyone is a good guy to you :classic:... other than maybe TM79.

Not true. Everyone knows what a dick I am !!

[Tigercub33]

Not true. Everyone knows what a dick I am !!

I think we discussed that in another thread.

[DaYooperASBDT]

I think we discussed that in another thread.

:lick: :lick: :lick:

[DaYooperASBDT]

:lick: :lick: :lick:

Dang, that was my best post of 2006!

[Tigercub33]

Dang, that was my best post of 2006!

I am pretty sure you had a post with 4 smiley's this year. I think that was probably your best.

[chasfh]

Hey Chuck, should the Tigers give Neifi a few more AB's this year ???
:cheeky:

I think you know where I stand on the Neifi Question, Andy. :wink:

[DaYooperASBDT]

I think you know where I stand on the Neifi Question, Andy. :wink:

You really need to do a chat. The "sabers" have been woefully underrepped.

[chasfh]

You really need to do a chat. The "sabers" have been woefully underrepped.

Can't talk now, crunching correlation analyses on run scoring and run prevention for Federal League years ...

:wink:

[tiger337]

Everyone is a good guy to you :classic:... other than maybe TM79.



This is true but I consider it to be one of Yoda's good qualities.