Mad Money

[zachcadillac]

I had heard the rumblings about the outrageous contracts that will passed out this winter, but I didn't realize quite how silly it will get until I read Buster Olney's article in ESPN the Magazine. (It's also on the Web site here, (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=2645545) for those who have Insider).

If he's right, the Tigers may want to avoid the FA market altogether. He says Jason Schmidt, who's 34 and doesn't have the best health history, will get a Burnett-type deal (5 years, $55 million). And he says Ted Lilly and Jeff Suppan may each get $40 million deals.

I know the influx of cash will probably change the way players are valued, but I don't think any amount of revenue justifies giving $40 million to Lilly.

This will be interesting.

[tigerbomb13]

I had heard the rumblings about the outrageous contracts that will passed out this winter, but I didn't realize quite how silly it will get until I read Buster Olney's article in ESPN the Magazine. (It's also on the Web site here, (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=2645545) for those who have Insider).

If he's right, the Tigers may want to avoid the FA market altogether. He says Jason Schmidt, who's 34 and doesn't have the best health history, will get a Burnett-type deal (5 years, $55 million). And he says Ted Lilly and Jeff Suppan may each get $40 million deals.

I know the influx of cash will probably change the way players are valued, but I don't think any amount of revenue justifies giving $40 million to Lilly.

This will be interesting.

Yikes! Looks like we will be staying put with our rotation.

[estrepe1]

Yikes... 40 million for Lilly? I was thinking you could get him for 2 years at 6 per....

I would just stay out of that one. Unfortunately it will make Bonderman's price skyrocket.

[rzzzzzzz]

Looking at the big free agent pitching signings from last year:

Burnett (5/55M) [10-8 (W-L), 118 ERA+]
Byrd (2/14M) [10-9, 92]
Loaiza (3/21M) [11-9, 91]
Millwood (5/60M) [16-12, 104]
M. Morris (3/27M) [10-15, 90]
K. Rogers (2/16M) [17-8, 118]
Washburn (4/38M) [8-14, 93]

No contract was under $7M per year, and for the most part, that got you mediocrity.

Given the performance of last year's crop, Zito [16-10, 116]; Schmidt [11-9, 125]; Lilly [15-13, 109]; and Matsuzaka, et al. all deserve contracts higher than $7-8 M per year.

Blame Cleveland, Seattle, and Toronto for the "mad money"!

[djhutch]

Unfortunately, the FA market on position players isn't all that great this year either. Schmidt & Zito are proven, & given DD's history with Pudge & Maggs I could see a deal with incentives for staying healthy.

[mikec444]

So at the time, how many people thought that we got the Big Prize in the free agents SP market last year? Anyone?

This is exhibit A why you DON'T TRADE BONDERMAN!!! You just can't find good young SP out there. I'd rather overpay Soriano by $5MM now, than overpay someone like Carlos Silva or Jon Garland by $5MM in a few years when we have a hole in the rotation.

[zachcadillac]

Unfortunately, the FA market on position players isn't all that great this year either. Schmidt & Zito are proven, & given DD's history with Pudge & Maggs I could see a deal with incentives for staying healthy.

But in this market, Schmidt probably won't have to settle for a deal with significant health incentives. Someone will give him guaranteed money.

And the dollar figures are really not as frightening as the contract lengths. Five-year deals for 34-year-old pitchers should be against the law I'd give Schmidt the mint on a two-year deal, but that won't be an option.

[zachcadillac]

So at the time, how many people thought that we got the Big Prize in the free agents SP market last year? Anyone?

This is exhibit A why you DON'T TRADE BONDERMAN!!! You just can't find good young SP out there. I'd rather overpay Soriano by $5MM now, than overpay someone like Carlos Silva or Jon Garland by $5MM in a few years when we have a hole in the rotation.

I wouldn't trade Bonderman. I would consider trading Robertson, who I think may regress next season.

Unfortunately it will make Bonderman's price skyrocket.

No joke. I would offer Bonderman 4 years and $30 million tomorrow and hope his agent hasn't been reading the newspapers.

[Yoda]

Bonderman will get at least 4/40, and that was before this new agreement. I think 4/30 would be an insult.

[Canon Fodder]

Bonderman will get at least 4/40, and that was before this new agreement. I think 4/30 would be an insult.

Though I agree with the likely numbers it will take to keep Bondo, it's a funny world we live in when you can say, "We'll give you thirty million for four years," and the response is, "That's an insult."

[zachcadillac]

Bonderman will get at least 4/40, and that was before this new agreement. I think 4/30 would be an insult.

You may be right. I'm terrible with numbers. My general point is the Tigers, if they have a choice, should not wait until the FA pitchers start signing contracts.

[Yoda]

Though I agree with the likely numbers it will take to keep Bondo, it's a funny world we live in when you can say, "We'll give you thirty million for four years," and the response is, "That's an insult."

The law of supply and demand. I like it.

[Tigercub33]

I heard on the news last night that the Phillies were offering Soriano 5 years for 75 Mill. Honestly, that seems like a pretty reasonable contract.

Maybe its just the market for pitchers that will be inflated......

[thewave84]

I wouldn't jump to any conclusions about this article. For all we know it is based on misinformation from agents to drive up perceived value of the players.

[qsilvr2531]

There is a good chance Bondermand gets 15-20 million per year when he becomes a FA, especially given the recent revenue growth. The list of 25/26 year old starting pitchers available on the Fa market is non-existent. A good starting point for Bonderman will be Burnett's deal, and then add either a couple years or some extra money. He's been every bit as effective as Burnett at similar ages, he'll be younger than Burnett was, and unless he gets hurt his injury history is much cleaner.

[djhutch]

But in this market, Schmidt probably won't have to settle for a deal with significant health incentives. Someone will give him guaranteed money.

And the dollar figures are really not as frightening as the contract lengths. Five-year deals for 34-year-old pitchers should be against the law I'd give Schmidt the mint on a two-year deal, but that won't be an option.

You're probably right. Although you would think that teams would learn from last year's Burnett contract.

[Tigercub33]

You're probably right. Although you would think that teams would learn from last year's Burnett contract.

What would give you the impression that teams EVER learn from the mistakes of years past in Free Agency?

[Glutn4Pnshmnt]

I heard on the news last night that the Phillies were offering Soriano 5 years for 75 Mill. Honestly, that seems like a pretty reasonable contract.

Maybe its just the market for pitchers that will be inflated......

Only thing is Soriano didn't think it was reasonable and said he was looking for a contract similar to what Beltran got in excess of 100 million.

[Domino]

I saw the title of this thread and thought it was going to be about this

http://www.nbccableinfo.com/insidenbccable/img/newsletter/madmoney.jpg

Must keep Bonderman if we want to have a chance at making the playoffs, or if we trade him, we need another power pitcher to replace him.

[Tigercub33]

Only thing is Soriano didn't think it was reasonable and said he was looking for a contract similar to what Beltran got in excess of 100 million.

I had not heard that any negiotions had been done yet, just that the Phils were going after him with that starting offer.

[Tyrus]

I had heard the rumblings about the outrageous contracts that will passed out this winter, but I didn't realize quite how silly it will get until I read Buster Olney's article in ESPN the Magazine. (It's also on the Web site here, (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=2645545) for those who have Insider).

If he's right, the Tigers may want to avoid the FA market altogether. He says Jason Schmidt, who's 34 and doesn't have the best health history, will get a Burnett-type deal (5 years, $55 million). And he says Ted Lilly and Jeff Suppan may each get $40 million deals.

I know the influx of cash will probably change the way players are valued, but I don't think any amount of revenue justifies giving $40 million to Lilly.

This will be interesting.


All the players you mention here are pitchers. If I were king, I would certainly shy away from spending a lot of FA pitchers. They always get way too much money, from Bud Black to Kevin Brown.

Yeah, Kenny Rogers worked out just fine for us last year. But for every Kenny Rogers, there are probably 20 Carl Pavanos.

I would still test the FA market for position players, though. That's where we need help, anyway, not on the mound.

[Tyrus]

So at the time, how many people thought that we got the Big Prize in the free agents SP market last year? Anyone?

This is exhibit A why you DON'T TRADE BONDERMAN!!! You just can't find good young SP out there. I'd rather overpay Soriano by $5MM now, than overpay someone like Carlos Silva or Jon Garland by $5MM in a few years when we have a hole in the rotation.


This is the correct answer. Give the man a lollypop. :smoker:

[zachcadillac]

I expect the market for position players will be outlandish, as well, but I thought the two most surprising examples were pitchers.

[ypsieast]

There is a good chance Bondermand gets 15-20 million per year when he becomes a FA, especially given the recent revenue growth. The list of 25/26 year old starting pitchers available on the Fa market is non-existent. A good starting point for Bonderman will be Burnett's deal, and then add either a couple years or some extra money. He's been every bit as effective as Burnett at similar ages, he'll be younger than Burnett was, and unless he gets hurt his injury history is much cleaner.
Some recent contracts for young star pitchers:
Oswalt 5/73 begins '07 (avg. 14.6 per)
Garland 3/29 began '06 (avg. 9.7 per)
Beckett 3/30 begins '07 (avg. 10 per)
Burnett 5/55 began '06 (avg. 11 per)

I expect DD to offer Bondo anywhere from 3-5 years at 10-12 per. That would be tough for Bondo to turn down - $40mil guaranteed and a contract that leaves him on the south side of 30. Oswalt just got 70mil at the age of 30. If Bondo waits for free agency sooner, he runs the risk of injury or losing market value. I think it would be smart for JB to sign an extension.

[Lou Ferigno]

I expect Bonderman to end up around 4/$40 with a club option at ~ $14M for year 5. That would be hard for him to turn down and is market value when considering that 2 or those are arbitration years. If the Tigers truly want him then I see no reason this doesn't get done real soon.

The FA market will be the craziest in years as everyone is flush in cash and mobile video download of games in coming for mobile devices very soon which will be another big NR jump for MLB. I actually think Soriano will end up around 6/$100 and Lee 5/$75 (at least). If Schmidt gets 5 years I'm going to be blown away but that could very well happen.

[estrepe1]

I heard on the news last night that the Phillies were offering Soriano 5 years for 75 Mill. Honestly, that seems like a pretty reasonable contract.

Maybe its just the market for pitchers that will be inflated......


A team could offer 5 and 60 but that doesn't mean they will get the player they are offering it to.

[Tigercub33]

A team could offer 5 and 60 but that doesn't mean they will get the player they are offering it to.

I know, I was just making the statement that the offer the Phillies were floating out (which was thought by the news and other places to be a strong offer) did not seem unreasonable.

[estrepe1]

There is a good chance Bondermand gets 15-20 million per year when he becomes a FA, especially given the recent revenue growth. The list of 25/26 year old starting pitchers available on the Fa market is non-existent. A good starting point for Bonderman will be Burnett's deal, and then add either a couple years or some extra money. He's been every bit as effective as Burnett at similar ages, he'll be younger than Burnett was, and unless he gets hurt his injury history is much cleaner.

This is probably right on target and I wouldn't mind it one bit if that happened.

[ballmich]

I think it would be smart for JB to sign an extension.

i don't, and if i was his agent i'd be advising him to test the FA market when he is eligible. the only reason Bonderman should be interested in signing that kind of contract at this point in his career is to safeguard against injury. however, even if he's injured next year, we will continue to pay him millions to rehab for 2007 and 2008. his upside is too high to just let him walk. then he becomes a FA after 2008. all he needs is one heathy season (presumably on an incentive based contract) after that and people will throw a multi-year million dollar contract at him. he is still set for life, with proper money management, before he gets to age 30. this is worst case scenario.

but the upside if he doesn't get hurt and doesn't give away any FA years is pretty phenominal. sure, maybe he could get $10-12 million per season on the open market this year. but in two years when he becomes a FA, the going rate could be $17-20 million a season. salary inflation in baseball does not follow the same growth curve as any other industries and it's nearly impossible to predict. and really it's affected each year by the supply of the free agent crop and the demand for players. but what we can predict is that player salaries increase almost every year. with good pitching is such short supply, it's easy to see how salaries could increase fairly significantly over the next two years.

now as a Tiger's fan, i'd love to get Bonderman to give up a few of his FA years.

[Canon Fodder]

23 years old and looking at more than 100 million in future earnings. It must be nice.

[qsilvr2531]

Some recent contracts for young star pitchers:
Oswalt 5/73 begins '07 (avg. 14.6 per)
Garland 3/29 began '06 (avg. 9.7 per)
Beckett 3/30 begins '07 (avg. 10 per)
Burnett 5/55 began '06 (avg. 11 per)

I expect DD to offer Bondo anywhere from 3-5 years at 10-12 per. That would be tough for Bondo to turn down - $40mil guaranteed and a contract that leaves him on the south side of 30. Oswalt just got 70mil at the age of 30. If Bondo waits for free agency sooner, he runs the risk of injury or losing market value. I think it would be smart for JB to sign an extension.

I could see Bonderman taking a 3 year, 30-36 million dollar deal right now (I can't see him taking more than a 3 year deal unless it is in the 15 mil per year range though). That costs him 1 year of FA and he earns close to what he'd expect to earn if he just went to arbitration and then went on the market. He'd be 27 at the end of that deal and in line for a contract somewhere between Burnett and Oswalt depending on his performance and any injury issues that crop up the next three years. As a Tiger fan, I'd be very happy with that deal as well, especially if it is back loaded (say 7 mil, 10 mil, 15 mil or something like that).

[JonBenke]

Every year is "MAD MONEY", so I don't see on how this comes as any surprise to anyone.

Now if DD/Ilitch want to attack the free agent market, two things must be certain .. they must be certain that the player they get is the player they want, and they must be willing to spend the money. Spending allot of money on a good player is not bad, but they must avoid paying the BUSTS!

As far as Bonderman goes, it should be interesting .. and I hope he signs. 5 yrs/50 million .. for his age, seems fair, so we'll see what happens.

[kitna2furrey]

sounds like a derek lowe like situation

[Oblong]

except that one's a very good pitcher and the other... well... isn't.

[thewave84]

Every year is "MAD MONEY", so I don't see on how this comes as any surprise to anyone.

I agree. It seems like every year there is an article like this, which is partly why I think that agents are fueling the fire.

[Statik]

Quality pitchers and FA are almost as rare as Tiger baseball in October than last 20 years, it happens, but not very often.

Great pitchers are generally not available because they get their contract 're-negotiated' while they wait for the 'MLB/MLBPA multi-year rookie protection from the Yankees bargaining agreement' to expire.

If a great pitcher (say 17-10 3.80era) is in the middle of a 4 year deal at cheese money (lets say 2 million) and has never seen a big payday, he will generally resign for a amount considerably less than his value as a free agent in lieu of scrapping his current contract. ie) 5yrs/50million, cancelling the last 2 years at 2 million...even though as a free agent he may be worth 20 million a season.

Two reasons:
A) he's a greedy bastard
B) fear of Tommy John.

So all available 'quality Free Agent' pitchers are generally:

A) old
B) 'crap-disturbers' that the team can't deal with
C) covering up some problem that everyone will be 'shocked' to discover when they hit the d/l in May.

Rule of thumb-->Buy Offense, Cultivate Pitching. Any owner that finds 20 bucks in his couch can have a great offensive team, but they still end up with the 1992 Tigers, oye.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/statistics/1992/11.shtml

[Shinzaki]

Put me amongst those who aren't as bothered by the money FA pitchers get as I am by the contract length. I'd never offer a 34 year-old pitcher a 4-5 year deal unless you put a really big gun to my head.

You are so much better off trying to develop and keep your own....to use a mythological reference, if I were an owner I'd tie my GM to the mast when the siren song of the FA starters began. Otherwise, you are almost certain to wind up in the rocks someday....

[estrepe1]

Put me amongst those who aren't as bothered by the money FA pitchers get as I am by the contract length. I'd never offer a 34 year-old pitcher a 4-5 year deal unless you put a really big gun to my head.

You are so much better off trying to develop and keep your own....to use a mythological reference, if I were an owner I'd tie my GM to the mast when the siren song of the FA starters began. Otherwise, you are almost certain to wind up in the rocks someday....


That is why Dombrowski seems to focus on drafting/developing pitchers. You can not count on free agency to shore up a pitching staff. It is far too risky.

I am also someone that doesn't mind the money as much as the length of the deal.

The fact is that someone is going to give Schmidt with his age and injury issues a 4 or 5 year deal.... that will be a huge mistake. I think the Mariners are just the team to make that mistake.

[mikec444]

Let's imagine Bonderman hits Free Agency in 2 years, he'll will have just turned 26. If things progress steadily, no big improvement but no decline or injury, it's reasonable to expect he'll have at least one All-Star appearance in the next two seasons. How many all-star starting pitchers under age 27 or even 28 have hit the free agent market?

I'm racking my brain, checking dates, Greg Maddux is the only one I've found so far. I'm not calling Bonderman the next Greg Maddux or anything, but you see the point.