What it will take offensively....

[estrepe1]

Okay in this thread I am going to discuss what it would take for the Tigers to right the ship and turn this around.

I am going to assume no Polanco... I would start by putting in Shelton but beyond that lets look at the starting lineup Leyland has run out there of late and think about it....

This analysis will use the lineup analysis from baseballmusings.com.

The basic idea is that you place the OBP and the SLG of each player and see what the predicted run total will be.

I will place the average numbers for the entire year and see if that would be enough runs to win a majority of their games. I am going to put the pitching staff down for 3.7 runs allowed per game (which is what they have averaged in September... although the staff has an ERA of 2.56)

With the following lineup:

Granderson 0.337/0.417
Rodriguez 0.324/0.424
Monroe 0.310/0.493
Ordonez 0.340/0.462
Guillen 0.386/0.504
Casey 0.266/0.320
Thames 0.331/0.571
Infante 0.329/0.430
Inge 0.310/0.459

Hitting at their average numbers for the year.... they would average 4.94 runs per game. Still not a great total... but better than what they have averaged.

Casey is a serious drain on this offense with a .230/.266/.320 line that only looks good if it is Neifi Perez.

So how many wins could a team get averaging out to 4.94 runs per game and allowing 3.7 runs per game....

They have 19 games left. If we use the pythagorean W-L formula to see the expected win percentage with 70 runs allowed and 94 runs scored it would be 0.631... which would be good for around 12 more wins this season but we will truncate it to 11 for the sake of argument. So if all of the hitters were hitting at their SEASON average they would get 97 wins this season. That would be enough for the playoffs.

So just for the sake of discussion... all we need is for the hitters to hit like their mediocre selves to finish out the season.... is that too much to ask?

The problem with the model that some might have is that it does not ask for batting average. But batting average is a part of obp.... and the majority of the Tigers have about the same BA as OBP....

[Yoda]

Nice job. That's what I was trying to get at yesterday. It isn't like they have to overacheive to win another 11-13 games. Either 3-4 hitters really heat up and start crushing the ball, as Lee pointed out, or everyone just needs to be average.

[IdahoBert]

So just for the sake of discussion... all we need is for the hitters to hit like their mediocre selves to finish out the season.... is that too much to ask?No it's not. That's why it seems they should break out of this funk and why it's so frustrating that they haven't. It's just not logical for them to struggle as much as they have. They should be due. If we can limp into the post season maybe they will get hot then?

[slim pickens]

Isnt this the same thing that happened to Chicago last year, then they caught fire in the playoffs?

[DrWho17]

Well, they need new players. They don't have any lockdown, deadly consistant hitters on the team. No Mauer/Morneau, no Thome/Konerko/Dye, no Ortiz/Ramirez. I'm not saying they need two, but they don't have one super deadly hitter, Monroe was getting there, but he's really cooled off.

On your Shelton suggestion, I think it's good, but I don't think he is someone Leyland likes a whole lot. He will probably get into the game today, against the best left handed pitcher in the game, but I wouldn't expect him to be able to show anything against Santana.

[estrepe1]

Well, they need new players.

But they aren't going to be able to find that this season... All they really need is for the hitters to start hitting to their average selves for the season to make the playoffs.

Next season they need to upgrade but at this point thats all they really need with this pitching staff. But my point for this thread was to discuss what it would take for this team to get enough wins to make it.

Guillen is pretty close to lockdown when he is healthy....

Isnt this the same thing that happened to Chicago last year, then they caught fire in the playoffs?

Somewhat... I hope it turns out the same way but the Tigers are playing with fire here...

[DrWho17]

Isnt this the same thing that happened to Chicago last year, then they caught fire in the playoffs?
Chicago wasn't this bad, for this long. Cleveland was also playing better then the teams pursuing the Tigers, for all the Tigers struggles, the Twins/WhiteSox have played poorly as well.

[DrWho17]

Looking at the lineup, Casey/Perez are getting whipped a lot, but with Polanco out, Granderson has to do something. His slump almost directly coincides with the offense falling apart. He needs to adjust, personally I'm not sure if Don Slaught's analytical approach is what this team needs, and I'd like to see Durham get a shot.

[Anthony]

Heres a solution: Hit the ****ing ball.

No seriously, like striking out, hitting is contagious. It only takes one or two guys to start consistently swinging the bats well and the rest will follow. Hopefully it'll happen sometime during this pennet race.

[estrepe1]

Looking at the lineup, Casey/Perez are getting whipped a lot, but with Polanco out, Granderson has to do something. His slump almost directly coincides with the offense falling apart. He needs to adjust, personally I'm not sure if Don Slaught's analytical approach is what this team needs, and I'd like to see Durham get a shot.

Granderson does need to turn it around. But I don't think it is all that fair to place all the struggles on his shoulders.... I mean if Magglio was hitting like he could in August then they likely would have one a few more games. Magglio is paid the most amount of money on this team for a reason. He is expected to be the one to provide the most amount of production.

[Jeremy"Cy" Bonderman]

They have 19 games left. If we use the pythagrean theorem to see the expected win percentage with 70 runs allowed and 94 runs scored it would be 0.631...

I can't believe you busted out the Pythagorean Theorem! Nice work. :chinese:

[T.O. Tiger Fan]

It's not too much to ask for career averages form here on out. It's not like they need a 15-4 run their last 19 to get in. An 11-8 record would probably get them in, and if they can't achieve that much, frankly they don't deserve to get in anyways.

[pyrotigers]

Chicago wasn't this bad, for this long. Cleveland was also playing better then the teams pursuing the Tigers, for all the Tigers struggles, the Twins/WhiteSox have played poorly as well.

As a team Chicago wasn't this bad, but their offense was perhaps even worse than ours.

[DrWho17]

Granderson does need to turn it around. But I don't think it is all that fair to place all the struggles on his shoulders.... I mean if Magglio was hitting like he could in August then they likely would have one a few more games. Magglio is paid the most amount of money on this team for a reason. He is expected to be the one to provide the most amount of production.
Look at Granderson's, August/September splits. Unacceptable for a leadoff hitter.

128 AB's, 24 hits, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 9 BB, 34 K's.

.187 Avg., .257 OBP, this is bad very bad, and as I've heard many times over the years, the leadoff hitter sets the tone of the offense. If you lack over the Tigers lineup, he stands out as struggling the most, and it's difficult when this is the person also getting the most at bats on the team.

[estrepe1]

Oh I didn't say it was acceptable or even good. I agreed that he needs to step it up. They all need to step it up and hit to their season averages.

[Just Some Dude]

Don't forget to include errors.. We have not been completely solid lately in the field. We need our pitchers to stay consistant, our offense to be at the least average and our defense needs to be pretty much flawless. We cannot waste great pitching performances due to errors and lack of hitting, it is unacceptable :)

[estrepe1]

Don't forget to include errors.. We have not been completely solid lately in the field. We need our pitchers to stay consistant, our offense to be at the least average and our defense needs to be pretty much flawless. We cannot waste great pitching performances due to errors and lack of hitting, it is unacceptable :)


The 3.7 runs per game includes unearned runs. If I was just going by earned runs it would be 2.56 runs per game.

[Just Some Dude]

The 3.7 runs per game includes unearned runs. If I was just going by earned runs it would be 2.56 runs per game.


Gotcha, thanks man.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Next year, we need a leadoff hitter, cleanup hitter, and better defense at SS (shift Guillen to first base)

This year? I'm running out of ideas. Inge at leadoff? He did OK there last year.

[DrWho17]

Next year, we need a leadoff hitter, cleanup hitter, and better defense at SS (shift Guillen to first base)

This year? I'm running out of ideas. Inge at leadoff? He did OK there last year.
Well, Inge has fallen off badly the last couple of months as well. They need to get Polanco in the hyperbolic chamber, and quickly. His OBP isn't all that wonderful, but he makes things happen and puts the ball in play at least.

[sabretooth]

So just for the sake of discussion... all we need is for the hitters to hit like their mediocre selves to finish out the season.... is that too much to ask?

I don't think it's too much to ask -- this is what I've been counting on for the whole second half. The offense has definitely been researching www.carlospenainmay.com for hitting tips since the beginning of August. I thought that last year they gave up on Trammell in September. I can't imagine that they're tanking on purpose here, so what gives????

Man, oh, man, we need to see Maggs, Thames and Grandy stinging the ball again but SOON! Just to hit like they always have as professionals, maybe even a little worse would be OK, just hit!!

[beek_27]

estrepe, thanks for that analysis. Great stuff.

You know....I'm warming up to you sabre types...:cheeky:

[tiger337]

I don't think it's too much to ask -- this is what I've been counting on for the whole second half. The offense has definitely been researching www.carlospenainmay.com for hitting tips since the beginning of August. I thought that last year they gave up on Trammell in September. I can't imagine that they're tanking on purpose here, so what gives????



The team did not have a good second half in 2004 either. Maybe they are not a good second half team for some reason other than choking or not caring. I don't have an answer.