Polanco: Separated Shoulder

[Yoda]

Horrible news. Probably done for the season.

So do we assume Infante is the full-time 2nd baseman now?

[dt35456884]

We lose depth and defense, but Polanco has actually been pretty dreadful at the plate this year. We don't lose all that much offensively with Infante in there.

I hope Raburn gets a shot. Santiago isn't even a Triple-A caliber hitter, much less a major league hitter.

[monkeynuts]

We lose a lot of defense though. Polanco has been great and Infante seems to have really struggled in the field this year. I also hate that we are taking out one of the few guys (Casey included) that doesn't strikeout all that much. This one hurts.

[pyrotigers]

Polanco is better than Infante, both offensively and defensively. So this is pretty worrysome.

Maybe we can pull a red sox and pick up a decent player to platoon with Infante through waivers.

[Edman85]

It's really not that huge of a deal. It would be if Polanco's lack of strikeouts were translating into other performance, but he has been the most overrated Tiger this year.

With some combination of Infante and Raburn, the team shouldn't miss too much over the course of 40 or so games. Maybe now we'll get somebody who can reach base in the #2 hole.

[DET Mr Malefic]

We lose depth and defense, but Polanco has actually been pretty dreadful at the plate this year.

We lose a lot of defense though.

Maybe now we'll get somebody who can reach base in the #2 hole.


I agree with all of the above.

[pyrotigers]

Polanco might not be good offensively, but Infante has been dreadful:

2005: .222 .254 .367 .621
2006: .263 .306 .372 .678

Career: .248 .293 .383 .676

Even in his 'good' year of 2004 he put up: .264 .317 .449 .766

So yes, I am concerned both offensively and defensively.

Polanco this year: .294 .325 .359 .684

Even his low OBP is still better than anything Infante has ever done.

[Anthony]

Polanco has bee great with RISP.
He's a soild ball player.

But as long as Omar can play solid defense, we should be ok for now.

[monkeynuts]

Polanco has bee great with RISP.
He's a soild ball player.

But as long as Omar can play solid defense, we should be ok for now.

I wish I was more confident in Omar than I am defensively.

[Truth]

Huh? I don't think this derails the team or anything but acting as if losing your number 2 hitter, who happens to be a great defender with one of the top averages in the league with RISP isn't an issue is off the mark.

[FloridaTigers]

Agreed, I'm not sold on Infante. I never was, never will be.

[DET Mr Malefic]

losing your number 2 hitter

He needed to be lost from the #2 spot a very long time ago.

Unfortunately, this was not the route I hoped for.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

like i said, maybe Dave will make a trade... we'll have to see though.

[tigersfandm]

Infante doesn't play everyday so it is hard to get into a rythm when you don't play everyday offensively and defensively. He may suprise many if he plays everyday. Who knows until he gets a shot. This has been a season where players step up for other players for the Tigers. He could step up nicely for polanco.

[DET Mr Malefic]

This has been a season where players step up for other players for the Tigers.

This is what I'm most banking on. I believe the Tigers can get it done.

[TonyJM]

Polanco this year: .294 .325 .359 .684

Even his low OBP is still better than anything Infante has ever done.


Pretty similar guys in my opinion...I'm not overtly worried (though I like Polanco.) Worrying about the major league track record of a 24 year old probably doesn't make a ton of sense. Polanco's 22 and 23 seasons were similarly erratic. Defensively I think they're pretty similar as well. It'll be interesting to see if Raburn gets a look in some capacity (though probably not second) at the major league level.


-Tony

[Tramfan]

I'm not entirely sold on Infante as an everyday player either. I don't think he'd resemble much more than the second coming of Damion Easley. It sucks that Polanco went down and I don't think he's as overated as Edman feels he is. However, it might actually be cool to see what Raburn can offer us at this stage. I just hope he gets the chance. Polanco's injury sure looked like a collar bone injury. Whatever the case let's hope we can get him back for playoff depth, if not let's get him healthy by next spring.

[monkeynuts]

I'm not entirely sold on Infante as an everyday player either. I don't think he'd resemble much more than the second coming of Damion Easley. It sucks that Polanco went down and I don't think he's as overated as Edman feels he is. However, it might actually be cool to see what Raburn can offer us at this stage. I just hope he gets the chance. Polanco's injury sure looked like a collar bone injury. Whatever the case let's hope we can get him back for playoff depth, if not let's get him healthy by next spring.

Am I the only one that is absolutely shocked to see Easley still playing major league ball this season?

[tiger337]

I'm not entirely sold on Infante as an everyday player either. I don't think he'd resemble much more than the second coming of Damion Easley.

That sounds like a good thing to me. Easley was a solid player for a few years. It's not his fault they gave him a stupid contract at the wrong time.

[Biff Mayhem]

Does this mean that Pudge gets moved up to the 2 hole?

[Truth]

He needed to be lost from the #2 spot a very long time ago.

Unfortunately, this was not the route I hoped for.

In a perfect world, yes but you work with what you've got. He doesn't strike out much and hits with runners in scoring position so he brings something to that spot in the order even if it's not getting on base at an ideal pace. Who do the Tigers replace him with?

[TonyJM]

I don't think he'd resemble much more than the second coming of Damion Easley.


Damion Easley circa 1997? I could live with that:happy:

[Domino]

A separated shoulder really knocks you out for the season?

Jeez I seem to remember having one back in my football days and I was back in a 2 weeks.

[Greenwit]

Did a quick internet check.....anywhere from a couple of weeks to end-of-season. The fact that they diagnosed it so quick suggests that it is probably not minor. Dislocated shoulders are much worse.

[tiger337]

Santiago will almost cetainly be coming up. By all accounts, Raburn is a sub-par fielder at every position and they need a utility player who can play both middle infield positions. I think they'll try hard to grab a second baseman off the waiver wire before September. Infante is an adequate short-term replacement but they likely don't want to take a chance on him starting big games down the stretch and in post-season.

[tigersfan25]

One thing to remember is that Omar hasn't had a consistant shot at a starting job in a year and a half.

Remember what a little confidence did for Marcus Thames earlier in the year, knowing that he'd be playing everyday. Perhaps the same will happen for Infante. Either way, I don't think it will be that big of a drop off. Plus, Rayburn (assuming it will be him called up) should help as well.

[DET Mr Malefic]

In a perfect world, yes but you work with what you've got. He doesn't strike out much and hits with runners in scoring position so he brings something to that spot in the order even if it's not getting on base at an ideal pace. Who do the Tigers replace him with?

Casey.

Although supposedly the reason for Rodriguez being dropped in the order was to get L-R-L-R-L-R in the batting order, and placing Casey second would put him back to back with Granderson.

However, when they acquired Casey I thought it was a done deal to put him in the #2 spot, even before Polanco got hurt. I was amazed when they put him lower in the lineup.

[TigersMeow79]

Carlos Pena was just released by the Yankees, could Carlos play 2B?

[Tramfan]

You guys make a valid point about that one and half season stretch Easily had. I guess what I'm trying to say I'd be suprised if Infante did more than the balance of Easily's career and overextended stay in the everyday lineup. In other words, I'd be pretty happy with one career year from Infante similar to Damion Easily's. I still don't think that's saying very much though.

[tigersfan25]

Carlos Pena was just released by the Yankees, could Carlos play 2B?
Well, I guess getting a rid of Carlos was a good idea after all, huh?

[DaYooperASBDT]

A separated shoulder really knocks you out for the season?

Jeez I seem to remember having one back in my football days and I was back in a 2 weeks.

Depends how badly he popped it, but swinging a bat does require a fairly healthy shoulder joint, so it could be a long while.

[TigersMeow79]

Well, I guess getting a rid of Carlos was a good idea after all, huh?

Where is your sense of humor?

[dt35456884]

Carlos Pena was just released by the Yankees, could Carlos play 2B?

Can he learn how to throw right-handed?

[DaYooperASBDT]

Carlos Pena was just released by the Yankees, could Carlos play 2B?

Dang, I'm not convinced he could play with himself at this point ....

[Franks151]

DD should pick up the phone and call the Angels. See if they are interested in moving Adam Kennedy. Howie Kendrick could play 2B every day instead of rotating positions at 1B, 2B and 3B.

[OldeEnglishD]

We already have the answer on our roster. This is an excellent time for Fernando Vina to step up.

[Greenwit]

He hit .260 at Columbus. 17 HR 66 RBI. SLG .454 OPB .370.

Not horrible. He'll get another shot. Evil Empire must have a decent prospect to get rid of those numbers.

[TigersMeow79]

Can he learn how to throw right-handed?

He could be a trend setter. :cheeky:

[tigersfan25]

Where is your sense of humor?
Oh, sorry, I actually thought this bit of negativity was serious. My bad.

[Franks151]

The Rangers also may be willing to move Jerry Hairston since he's buried on the bench behind Mark DeRosa and Ian Kinsler. I'm not sure Hairston is an upgrade over Infante though...

[TigersMeow79]

DD should pick up the phone and call the Angels. See if they are interested in moving Adam Kennedy. Howie Kendrick could play 2B every day instead of rotating positions at 1B, 2B and 3B.

That's actually a pretty good idea, not sure if AK would pass through waivers. I see the Tigers getting a guy like Marlon Anderson.

[DET Mr Malefic]

DD should pick up the phone and call the Angels. See if they are interested in moving Adam Kennedy. Howie Kendrick could play 2B every day instead of rotating positions at 1B, 2B and 3B.

Kennedy is about Infante-level offensively, though I'm not sure how he is defensively. That said, if he could be had for someone lesser than Brian Rogers, I'd still rather have him than Ramon Santiago. He also bats left handed and if I'm not mistaken he's a FA after this year (though I could be wrong on that).

It's certainly not a bad thought....intriguing indeed.

[Tramfan]

We already have the answer on our roster. This is an excellent time for Fernando Vina to step up.

Now that's humor. Nice moniker btw. I'm a little suprised that one was still available. Good work. :cool:

[Greenwit]

Now that's humor. Nice moniker btw. I'm a little suprised that one was still available. Good work. :cool:

Two words......Damion Easley. I bet he's available. :nervous:

[pyrotigers]

The key thing is that almost anyone would be an upgrade over Santiago, so even if they aren't a big upgrade over Infante...

[dt35456884]

Not for nothing, but Omar Infante was one of the top 3-4 second basemen in the American League in 2004. Dude was 22 years old. He's still an intriguing player in my mind.

At the very least, he's a Marco Scutaro type player. And I'll bet if we acquired Scutaro over the waiver wire, people here would be pretty thrilled about that. But Infante has been in the org for a long time, has gone through some growing pains, and has battled injuries recently. So I think people tend to underrate him here.

[DET Mr Malefic]

The key thing is that almost anyone would be an upgrade over Santiago, so even if they aren't a big upgrade over Infante...

I agree 100%. When Polanco got hurt I wasn't very concerned about the starting 2nd baseman. Infante is a step down (I think a bigger step down than Ed is saying, but not as big of a step down as others are saying), but he's not a dramatic step down.

The problem is the difference between Infante and (insert player #25) is rather gargantuan. Getting an *adequate* player #25 that plays infield is my greater concern.

[dt35456884]

Santiago will almost cetainly be coming up.

I really hope you are wrong. Raburn might not be any great shakes in the field, but Santiago is essentially a DF. The exact opposite of a designated hitter.

[Tramfan]

My biggest problem with Infante is that I never seeing him hitting off speed pitches consistently enough to hit with very much success as an everyday player. I like the other parts of his game and certainly like him as a reserve.

[pyrotigers]

Santiago has been called up, per Knobler on Mlive.

[Anthony]

No surpise. They said he'd be back. I still think Omar gets the start.

[monkeynuts]

Santiago has been called up, per Knobler on Mlive.

I was really hoping I'd never, ever see him again in a Tigers uniform. This sucks.

[gamtchll]

Don't the Nationals have a pretty good 2B? Hmm...in our dreams.

[Bubba]

WHo bats 2nd? (Sorry if this has been posted). I bet its Guillen or Pudge. I would love to see Pudge out of that 3 spot, preferably down in the order like 6.

[Anthony]

Leyland usually likes to put power in that spot when PP isnt in the lineup.
I'm guessing Monroe, or Thames?
But I dont know how long you can do that if PP is out for an extended period of time.

[Tramfan]

Don't the Nationals have a pretty good 2B? Hmm...in our dreams.

Heck yeah, and they'd probably only ask for JJ, Sanchez and Miller. At least we wouldn't have to give up Maybin.

[dt35456884]

Santiago has been called up, per Knobler on Mlive.

A wholly tepid "welcome back" to the worst offensive middle infielder in the big leagues, this side of Ed Rogers (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7004).

[tiger337]

He hit .260 at Columbus. 17 HR 66 RBI. SLG .454 OPB .370.

Not horrible. He'll get another shot. Evil Empire must have a decent prospect to get rid of those numbers.

There was a clause in his contract which allowed him to opt out of his deal if he was not promoted and another opportunity came along. That might be what happened.

[Franks151]

Yes, I think we tend to underrate Infante. We know he weaknesses. He tries to pull outside pitches too much and can't seem to handle most offspeed offerings. But despite these weaknesses he's close to being a league average 2nd baseman. I still think sniffing a Adam Kennedy/Jerry Hairston trade would be wise. Would the Astros being willing to deal Chris Burke?

[flimflam]

Monroe has already been inserted at #2 a few times recently, right? I think that he may get a chance to sink or swim there for a little while.

I'll admit to still being a little intrigued by what Infante might do if he got a chance to play every day (at 2B, not SS). losing Polanco is in no way minor, but he is one of the more replaceable starters on the squad. that is, losing just about any other starter would have been more worrysome.

I'll be interested to hear if he can be healthy again by the end of next month.

[Franks151]

A wholly tepid "welcome back" to the worst offensive middle infielder in the big leagues, this side of Ed Rogers (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7004).

Did Ed Rogers ever hit 2 home runs off Pedro Martinez? :classic:

[TigersMeow79]

Santiago has been called up, per Knobler on Mlive.

Yikes just awful to hear that.

[tiger337]

I like Infante and I don't think he's as huge drop off from Polanco who I think is overrated. The problem is that he has had some mental lapses in the past. Plus, he's got that shoulder problem which keeps popping up. I haven't given up on him long term but now might not be a good time for him to play regularly. I expect them to end up with another infielder off waivers before September.

[Oblong]

I'm ok with Infante over Polanco. I think Infante could really shine in a regular role. It's tough to judge part time players.

[Truth]

Casey.

Although supposedly the reason for Rodriguez being dropped in the order was to get L-R-L-R-L-R in the batting order, and placing Casey second would put him back to back with Granderson.

However, when they acquired Casey I thought it was a done deal to put him in the #2 spot, even before Polanco got hurt. I was amazed when they put him lower in the lineup.

I have no idea what they are going to do but Casey is just so incredibly slow, as in below average x 3, that I would hate seeing him batting second. I'd almost rather see Inge or Pudge batting second though the numbers don't support it.

[monkeytargets37]

What ever happened to Mark Bellhorn?

[kdog]

What ever happened to Mark Bellhorn?

He's on San Diego. Losing Big Head isn't a gigantic loss. If you were to pick any infielder besides Casey, Polanco would be the most replaceable with someone on the roster.

Omah will be ok I think.

[jadefalcon]

How bout Jose Vidro?

[JS]

Infante for Polanco is a wash offensively. Maybe Infante gives away a tiny bit of OBP in return for a bit more power, but it evens out. As a 24-year old who hasn't played regularly for the last couple years, Infante also has some upside at the plate that Polanco lacks (not saying the upside will necessarily be realized, but some chance is better than none).

I'm a lot more concerned about the defensive end of things, where Polanco was one of the keys to our top-notch infield defense (and our groundball pitching staff). Strangely, Infante's career defensive numbers indicate that he's well above average at shortstop, but he's been a below average second baseman. The sample size isn't enormous, but he's basically got a full season's worth of experience at each position, which seems like enough to be significant. Since short is a more difficult position, that would seem to suggest that he has the talent to be a quality defender at second, so let's hope he can put it all together.

I'm surprised that Polanco is reported to be out for the season with this injury. Does that just mean the regular season, or are they saying he's done period? I would think that the 6+ weeks before the playoffs even start, plus another week per round, would give him a significant chance to heal. We'll have to see what Will Carroll has to say on Baseball Prospectus tomorrow.

I completely agree that if we had to lose an everyday player, Polanco or Casey would be the choice. As explained above, I think Infante is a reasonable replacement, but in that case we desperately need a better utility guy than Santiago. I'm curious to see who might be available for that role. None of the names that have been mentioned so far in this thread sound very exciting. I guess Kennedy would be all right, but he's not an improvement over Infante. I'd rather see the younger player get a shot at the job, but if we wanted Kennedy as a backup that would be ok. Kennedy may not be able to handle short or third, though, which would make him a less than ideal utility infielder.

P.S. I think it's awesome that Pudge got to play second.

[JS]

How bout Jose Vidro?

Vidro's not a bad idea if he's healthy. He would be a significant offensive upgrade over any of the other options mentioned. Unfortunately, his defense is pretty mediocre at this point. He's currently in AA rehabbing a hamstring injury and is due to come off the DL soon (this week). If he's really ready to go, I would certainly see what the Nationals wanted for him (although Bowden may not be reasonable), but it wouldn't be good to put him in a situation where he just pulls the hamstring again in a couple weeks.

[Bondo]

I do feel that Polanco was one of better clutch hitters, but I agree that Infante could be the the same if not better in some cases. Anyways this is a good time to see Infante in a full time role, lets see what we really have.

Regardless it sucks to lose Polanco.

[Yoda]

For those that didn't see the play, I think he actually hurt his shoulder when the ball hit his mitt. If you watch the replay, you can see as soon as the ball hit his mitt, it sort of forced his shoulder down, and he instantly cringes (which you can't see in the video) and reached for his shoulder with his right arm...

http://us.news1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids/20060816/i/r2424722268.jpg

Then he did a tumble on the ground and sat in this position, completely motionless, until after they broke for commercials. It was pretty disheartening to see.

http://us.news1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids/20060816/i/r743287838.jpg


You can watch the video here:
http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/multimedia/tp_archive.jsp?c_id=det

[Ingefanclub]

It could have been alot worse...the 2 starters who have gotten injured this year are Maroth and Polanco.

We have a former major league starter to fill in for Polanco in Infante. You had to expect someone would get hurt this year and thank goodness it wasn't one of our best players. It is bad news that Guillen won't get alot of rest for the stretch perhaps.

[tigersfandm]

In Infante we should trust. I believe if he knows he is playing everyday and will play everyday that he will be very good. Raburn is on the DL according to mudhens.com. Infante has done well playing when he is called upon this season. Sometimes he doesn't play at all for 2 weeks and then gets in there like for Inge last night and what does he do? He hits a double off the green monster. I think we will miss Polanco's low K's at the plate, but Infante can do the job in the field and he can hit for a bit of power as well. It does suck that Polanco is out right now, but no other teams will be sorry for the Tigers, so turn the page, move on and in Infante we shall trust. :)

Now Leyland has to manage even more, which I'm completely confident he can get that job done as well.

[pfife]

Rod thinks Infante is going to be a good player when he plays everday. In Rod I trust. (cue the bad jokes now...!)

[zachcadillac]

Not to be callous, but at this point I'd rather lose Polanco than Casey, Guillen, Inge, Ordonez, Granderson, and Monroe or most any pitcher.

That said, let's give Polly some credit for his incredible, game-saving catch.

[pfife]

and soriano is placed on waivers.... lol

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5876600

[Edman85]

Given that Polanco and Infante are roughly equals this year, the bad news here is that Santiago is going to see playing time, which is a true disgrace.

[Ron Burgandy]

Polonco is one of those guys which the SABRs don't value as much as more "traditional" fans. His biggest strengths are his ability to put the ball in play, hit with RISP, and making all the routine plays in the field.

This will be an interesting test to see just how valuable some of Polonco's intangibles really are...

[Oblong]

Consider the team's been .500 since August began and if they continue to be .500 the rest of the way, everybody will say it's because of Polanco's injury.

[Yoda]

Polonco is one of those guys which the SABRs don't value as much as more "traditional" fans.

He is a classic example of that.

The thing that upsets me the most about this injury is that he's one of the nicest and hardest-working players on the team and he's probably going to miss out on the best part of the season, and the playoffs. I do feel bad for the guy.

We're not missing much production-wise but he's a great guy to have around and deserves to be playing. Oh well. Maybe he won't be out as long as I'm expecting.

[tigersfandm]

Infante is only 24 or so? It seems like he has been with the Tigers for a long long time for some reason.

[Yoda]

Infante is only 24 or so? It seems like he has been with the Tigers for a long long time for some reason.

Yeah, they brought him up way too early. It served it's purpose, though, in telling the organization that he was more valuable than Santiago. That was one of the few good things that came out of the 2003 season.

[billfer]

Not to be callous, but at this point I'd rather lose Polanco than Casey, Guillen, Inge, Ordonez, Granderson, and Monroe or most any pitcher.

That said, let's give Polly some credit for his incredible, game-saving catch.

I was thinking the same thing. He is the most replaceable of member of the infield. I'm more concerned about a defensive drop off than I am about an offensive one.

[Ron Burgandy]

He is a classic example of that.

The thing that upsets me the most about this injury is that he's one of the nicest and hardest-working players on the team and he's probably going to miss out on the best part of the season, and the playoffs. I do feel bad for the guy.

We're not missing much production-wise but he's a great guy to have around and deserves to be playing. Oh well. Maybe he won't be out as long as I'm expecting.

I'm not convinced he'll be out that long. I think we'll see him back in mid-September...

[Yoda]

If he isn't healthy by the time the playoffs start, and they don't add him to the playoff roster, can they add him later if/when he's ready? I know you can change the roster when a player becomes injured, but what about when a player becomes healthy?

[Oblong]

I thought they were just going to pop the thing back in and he'd continue playing.

[Ron Burgandy]

If he isn't healthy by the time the playoffs start, and they don't add him to the playoff roster, can they add him later if/when he's ready? I know you can change the roster when a player becomes injured, but what about when a player becomes healthy?

I believe that you can re-set your playoff roster before each round, so if Polonco is ready for the ALCS he could be added at that stage. I'm hardly an expert on playoff roster rules, however, considering the last ~20 years...

The bigger question in my mind would be whether we'd want to add Polonco back in at that point, when he presumably wouldn't have been able to put in any minor league rehab time (i.e. the minor league season will have ended by then).

[cruzer1]

Given that Polanco and Infante are roughly equals this year, the bad news here is that Santiago is going to see playing time, which is a true disgrace.
Why? Because he can play decent defense? :confused:

[mckibbka]

I thought they were just going to pop the thing back in and he'd continue playing.

That's what I was hoping for too.

[Yoda]

I believe that you can re-set your playoff roster before each round, so if Polonco is ready for the ALCS he could be added at that stage. I'm hardly an expert on playoff roster rules, however, considering the last ~20 years...

The bigger question in my mind would be whether we'd want to add Polonco back in at that point, when he presumably wouldn't have been able to put in any minor league rehab time (i.e. the minor league season will have ended by then).

Those are a couple good points. I don't recall seeing teams add players like that in the middle of the playoffs. I think Polanco is a guy that could step in and make contact without much rehab, though, and his defense would still be solid, which is more important anyhow.

[hook316]

Infante is only 24 or so? It seems like he has been with the Tigers for a long long time for some reason.

Omar will be 25 in December of this year. Polanco getting hurt stinks. He is truly one of the unsung leaders of this team. He will be missed not just on the field. But...Omar Infante is a very good replacement. He has decent power and decent speed (16 HR and 13 SB in 2004). He strikes out a lot though. This is one area where Polanco was invaluable. PP always put the ball in play and his average with RISP has been awesome this year. I believe he's in the top five in the AL. But all in all, Tigers will be okay.

Tigs could do MUCH worse than Infante starting at 2B with Santiago backing up middle infield.

GO OMAR!

Go Tigs!

[pyrotigers]

Rodriguez apparently said he's out for the year, but the Tigers haven't confirmed.

I would assume that we won't know for sure until the mysterious tests today, but it sounds being out for the year is the most likely, and even at the best (and unlikely) he'd definitely be out for a month or so.

[MotownWebGuy]

X-rays show Polanco's shoulder isn't broken (http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060816/UPDATE/608160434)
Tom Gage The Detroit News

Injured Tigers second baseman Placido Polanco got some good news Wednesday morning. His left shoulder isn't broken.

That's as far as the good news goes, so far.

Polanco suffered a separated left shoulder in the seventh inning of the Tigers' 3-2 victory over the Red Sox on Tuesday night at Fenway Park. He has been placed on the 15-day disabled list. Infielder Ramon Santiago was recalled from Toledo to take his place on the roster, and at this point, it appears that Omar Infante will inherit the bulk of the playing time at second base.

X-rays on Polanco's shoulder Wednesday showed there is no fracture, but there is no timeline for the amount of time he'll miss, or if he's out for the rest of the season.

He will be examined by Tigers team physicians Thursday, after the Tigers return from Boston, at which time a more definitive outlook will be determined.

[kdog]

Consider the team's been .500 since August began and if they continue to be .500 the rest of the way, everybody will say it's because of Polanco's injury.

I'm waiting for the Dmitri has relapsed posts. Those were great after his horrific 3 error game.

[Ron Burgandy]

From Will Carroll:

When I got off the plane tonight, I passed the ubiquitous sports bar and saw… Ivan Rodriguez at second base? What? Had my flight from Philly landed in a parallel dimension? No, it was a desperate situation caused by a lack of infielders after an injury. Placido Polanco made a great diving play, but paid the price with a shoulder injury. Postgame reports indicated that Polanco had separated his shoulder when trying to catch himself after making the play, but further tests will be done tomorrow. The key will be controlling the swelling inside the joint and making sure that it has stabilized. Remember, a separation implies that the shoulder is now in its proper placement, in contrast to a dislocation. As for Pudge at the keystone, BP’s Dave Metz was at the game and reported that Rodriguez looked lost, but still made the necessary plays. Shades of Craig Biggio...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5431

[tiger337]

I was thinking the same thing. He is the most replaceable of member of the infield. I'm more concerned about a defensive drop off than I am about an offensive one.

I think there is only a defensive drop if Infante's shoulder is still unhealthy. If I'm remembering correctly, Infante has very good range but had a problem with throwing due to his shoulder injury.

[ballmich]

could be a hellava opportunity for Infante. and a good chance for the organization to see what Infante can contribute on a regular basis. this is a ball player that we need to further evaluate to determine what his role will be in the future. or if he's even a guy we want to keep around. i'm not sure what his salary is off the top of my head, but in the near future his salary will probably increase to the point that he will not be worth it, if he is simply a utility infielder.

in the short term, i don't see this as any meaningful downgrade to Polanco. with the exception that Santiago was recalled and is going to get playing time.

[CaliforniaDreaming]

I'm finally able to pull myself together enough to post. Hearing that my AAT has gone down with an injury and then hearing so many posters state their belief that he wasn't really all that important and can easily be replaced has been very difficult on me.

My shoulder hurts right along with Enrique's!

I will join with Enrique in hoping that Infante plays extremely well! (By the way, who has Infante as their AAT? The pressure is on!)

[Tyrus]

Polonco is one of those guys which the SABRs don't value as much as more "traditional" fans. His biggest strengths are his ability to put the ball in play, hit with RISP, and making all the routine plays in the field.

This will be an interesting test to see just how valuable some of Polonco's intangibles really are...



I scratched my head when I opened this thread and read that people were describing Polanco as being "dreadful" at the plate, and otherwise disparaging his performance.

All I can say is: Are you frigging kidding me? Are these people watching the same games as I am? In the games I've watched -- which would be just about all of 'em -- I've seen Polanco get clutch hit after clutch hit. How many two-out opposite-field hits that score the go-ahead run does a guy need to have, for chrissakes?

I'm sorry, but these SABR people absolutely don't get it. Here's a slice of reality, Bill James worshipers: The Detroit Tigers have one of the best records after 100 games in the last quarter-century -- and they have a mediocre OPS.

Here's more reality: If you were to put Polanco on the market, I'll bet there would be a long line of GMs waiting to plug him and his "dreadful" play into their lineups.

Of course, baseball general managers don't know what they're doing, other than Billy Beane. And we can all see how many championships he has won in his illustrious career.

Oh, wait. Beane hasn't won jack crap.

Polanco "dreadful"??!!!? I don't want to be rude to anyone, but to say Polanco has been dreadful is ridiculous on its face.

[Atom]

i'm not sure what his salary is off the top of my head, but in the near future his salary will probably increase to the point that he will not be worth it, if he is simply a utility infielder.

1 year - $385,000

[mcqfesijiba]

Am I one of the few who think that Polanco has been one of the best hitters on the team for a couple of months? I thought he was getting over early injury troubles and had returned to form as a very good #2 hitter before this happened. He slumped a little in August, but was huge in June and July.

I'm not overly optimistic on Infante, but hopefully he'll make the most of his opportunity and step up. I don't think we'll be disappointed with his defense. However, I'm with most everybody else that the bench takes a big downgrade. Santiago has a very good glove, but I don't like him as the primary backup infielder. Hopefully the rest of the infield holds up down the stretch and Polanco can return by the playoffs (or sooner). Just have to make sure to hold onto that playoff spot first...

I won't abandon ship and will join everybody else in hoping that Infante steps up his game or Dombrowski has something up his sleeves. Go Tigers!

[Ron Burgandy]

I would think that Dombrowski would be able to get a decent utility infielder in a waiver-wire trade, which would hopefully reduce some of the concern over the diminished bench.

[Tyrus]

Am I one of the few who think that Polanco has been one of the best hitters on the team for a couple of months?


No, I totally agree with you.

[Oblong]

I scratched my head when I opened this thread and read that people were describing Polanco as being "dreadful" at the plate, and otherwise disparaging his performance.

All I can say is: Are you frigging kidding me? Are these people watching the same games as I am? In the games I've watched -- which would be just about all of 'em -- I've seen Polanco get clutch hit after clutch hit. How many two-out opposite-field hits that score the go-ahead run does a guy need to have, for chrissakes?

I'm sorry, but these SABR people absolutely don't get it. Here's a slice of reality, Bill James worshipers: The Detroit Tigers have one of the best records after 100 games in the last quarter-century -- and they have a mediocre OPS.

Here's more reality: If you were to put Polanco on the market, I'll bet there would be a long line of GMs waiting to plug him and his "dreadful" play into their lineups.

Of course, baseball general managers don't know what they're doing, other than Billy Beane. And we can all see how many championships he has won in his illustrious career.

Oh, wait. Beane hasn't won jack crap.

Polanco "dreadful"??!!!? I don't want to be rude to anyone, but to say Polanco has been dreadful is ridiculous on its face.

I think you seriously overstate what's been written in this thread.

YOur post symbolizes what the anti-saber's flaw really is. You only remember what you want to.

[Yoda]

Polanco "dreadful"??!!!? I don't want to be rude to anyone, but to say Polanco has been dreadful is ridiculous on its face.

This is where watching games can be misleading. Trust the numbers. They're there to help. Unless you have a perfect memory and watch every game, just going by what you remember can be really misleading.

Looking at the numbers, He is 4th on the team in hitting, but only 6th in OBP, roughly 9th in slugging, though I didn't include part-time players like Wilson, Gomez, Young, and Infante, who are all ahead of him. Also Casey and Clevlen, but I won't rub it in. He's easily one of the worst on the team at drawing walks as well.

To his credit, he does a good job of moving runners over, which is very valuable and doesn't get enough credit (although sometimes its overvalued here), and he does hit a respectable amoung of singles. But past that, his offense is very empty.

He's a classic example of a player that is underrated by sabers and overrated by the traditionalists. He's great at the intangibles but not very good at getting on base and slugging. Overall I love having him on the team because of the intangibles and his defense, but honestly, I think Omar can provide enough of an upgrade in slugging to make up for what we'll miss in Polanoco. It's not a knock on Polanco, just that I think Omar will make up for what we've lost.

[Buddha]

Has anyone mentioned the Tigers possibly picking up Jose Vidro when he comes back?

[TigerPride]

Infante as the starter at 2B and Santiago recalled as the utility INF seems about right. Both have played a small role in the teams sucess this year and deserve the chance to step up and try to contribute more.

However, DD needs to be alert to possible moves in case one or both don't step up.

If PP is out for the year, then a definite move for a better player needs to be made to improve chances for Tigers to win it all.

[JS]

All I can say is: Are you frigging kidding me? Are these people watching the same games as I am? In the games I've watched -- which would be just about all of 'em -- I've seen Polanco get clutch hit after clutch hit. How many two-out opposite-field hits that score the go-ahead run does a guy need to have, for chrissakes?


For the record, yes, Polanco's "clutch" numbers are significantly better than his overall hitting stats this year. However, if you look at the same numbers averaged over the last 3 seasons (2003-2005), he has done worse in clutch situations than overall. So: do you think that he suddenly decided to hit better in the clutch now that he's on a good team, he learned a new hitting skill at age 30, or that he's just been a little bit lucky in a small number of at bats this year? I'm sure you can guess what I would say.

I'm sorry, but these SABR people absolutely don't get it. Here's a slice of reality, Bill James worshipers: The Detroit Tigers have one of the best records after 100 games in the last quarter-century -- and they have a mediocre OPS.


So? The Tigers' success is built on pitching and defense this year - they are leading the league by a wide margin in both categories. So they don't need a great offense. If they wanted to improve their offense, though, don't you think they might take a look at some hitters with a higher OPS? Say, Bobby Abreu? Or Alfonso Soriano?

Finally, I don't recall seeing anyone use the word "dreadful" or anything like it, until your post. Polanco has obviously been an important contributor this year. That doesn't make him irreplaceable. And it should hardly be sacrilegious to point out that a guy who never walks and has no power isn't a great hitter.

[spikesglaring]

From Gage's blog:

From Boston - what we're hearing now is 3-8 weeks, four for sure - and there's every indication they're looking elsewhere for a replacement.

[Yoda]

From Boston - what we're hearing now is 3-8 weeks, four for sure - and there's every indication they're looking elsewhere for a replacement.

Then why not say 4-8 weeks? :dead:

I don't doubt that they're looking elsewhere. What's John McDonald up to these days?

[pyrotigers]

McDonald has been the starting shortstop for Toronto much of the year, if Polanco can come back in 4 weeks it would be amazing, even 8 weeks would be better than I expected.

[DaYooperASBDT]

I think we'll all be surprised at how soon Polanco returns. Shoot I remember Inge used to pop his shoulder out almost weekly, and he kept right on playing unless the coaches caught him popping in back in.

As for Infante's arm, he looked just fine last night! That play behind the bag in short CF, where he whirled and threw out Javy Lopez, was a thing of beauty. Never hurts to have a catcher running, of course. :wink:

[Ron Burgandy]

Update from Will Carroll:

The Tigers have a bit more clarity about the severity of Placido Polanco’s injury. It could have been better, it could have been worse, but the bottom line is that Polanco should be out for about a month. Jim Leyland speculated that it would be four weeks and he wouldn’t pick a point without some guidance from his medical staff. That would indicate that Polanco didn’t have significant swelling or damage inside the shoulder capsule. While Polanco could return at that point, the bigger question is: will he be limited at all once he returns? Given past injuries of this type, Polanco is likely to have more trouble at the plate than in the field. Look for reports of Polanco throwing or taking dry swings for an indication that he’s about a week out. A couple readers thought that the tape showed that Polanco injured himself on the lay-out stretch rather than the impact. The angles I have available are inconclusive, though holding myself to the NFL challenged call standard is a bit silly. It’s very unlikely that the causation was not impact.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5433

[ballmich]

why would it matter if it happened during the lay-out or from the impact?

[beek_27]

PP is a gamer any way you slice it. He made a great game saving catch, he's a solid defensive second baseman, and he is a great asset to have in the lineup day in and day out. We're going to miss him. I hope Infante steps it up!

PP, get well soon, and hopefully we have you back for the stretch run and playoffs!

[monkeynuts]

I have no problem with the Tigers looking at every option, but it would seem prefectly reasonable to just hand it to Infante for the next month or so. It seems as if the Tigers are really trying to get somebody new which is kind of surprising to me.

[tiger337]

I'm sorry, but these SABR people absolutely don't get it. Here's a slice of reality, Bill James worshipers: The Detroit Tigers have one of the best records after 100 games in the last quarter-century -- and they have a mediocre OPS.



Why would a saber be surprised by that? Scoring runs is only half the battle. They are average in runs scored and way out in front in run prevention. Statistically, that translates into a team that should win a very large number of games. You should develop a basic understanding of sabermetrics before criticizing it.

[tiger337]

For the record, yes, Polanco's "clutch" numbers are significantly better than his overall hitting stats this year. However, if you look at the same numbers averaged over the last 3 seasons (2003-2005), he has done worse in clutch situations than overall. So: do you think that he suddenly decided to hit better in the clutch now that he's on a good team, he learned a new hitting skill at age 30, or that he's just been a little bit lucky in a small number of at bats this year? I'm sure you can guess what I would say.

So? The Tigers' success is built on pitching and defense this year - they are leading the league by a wide margin in both categories. So they don't need a great offense. If they wanted to improve their offense, though, don't you think they might take a look at some hitters with a higher OPS? Say, Bobby Abreu? Or Alfonso Soriano?

Finally, I don't recall seeing anyone use the word "dreadful" or anything like it, until your post. Polanco has obviously been an important contributor this year. That doesn't make him irreplaceable. And it should hardly be sacrilegious to point out that a guy who never walks and has no power isn't a great hitter.

Thanks JS.

[tiger337]

He's a classic example of a player that is underrated by sabers and overrated by the traditionalists. He's great at the intangibles but not very good at getting on base and slugging. Overall I love having him on the team because of the intangibles and his defense, but honestly, I think Omar can provide enough of an upgrade in slugging to make up for what we'll miss in Polanoco. It's not a knock on Polanco, just that I think Omar will make up for what we've lost.

I like his defense and that will be missed. He is not having a good year offensively. He hits for average and has been a good hitter in limited situations this year (although as JS pointed out, he doesn't do well in those situations every year). Other than that, he doesn't walk has no power and is very slow. I don't think he'll be missed much offensively.

[TigerPride]

Would Polanco do a rehab stint in Toledo before he came back? I would think so. Hope he has a speedy recovery.

[iatigersfan]

Why not try to get Mark Grudzielanek from Kansas City. He has a .294 BA, .332 OBP, and .405 SLG, 5 home runs and 39 RBI -- and he is a legitimate #2 hitter, who recently signed a 2-year contract extension, with an option year.

[Ron Burgandy]

Would Polanco do a rehab stint in Toledo before he came back? I would think so. Hope he has a speedy recovery.

Toledo's season is likely to be finished by the time Polonco would return.

[snoogit]

Would Polanco do a rehab stint in Toledo before he came back? I would think so. Hope he has a speedy recovery.


If he can come back before 9/4/06

Why not try to get Mark Grudzielanek from Kansas City. He has a .294 BA, .332 OBP, and .405 SLG, 5 home runs and 39 RBI -- and he is a legitimate #2 hitter, who recently signed a 2-year contract extension, with an option year.

would KC actually do this? if they resigned him, they must want him.

[chasfh]

For the record, yes, Polanco's "clutch" numbers are significantly better than his overall hitting stats this year. However, if you look at the same numbers averaged over the last 3 seasons (2003-2005), he has done worse in clutch situations than overall. So: do you think that he suddenly decided to hit better in the clutch now that he's on a good team, he learned a new hitting skill at age 30, or that he's just been a little bit lucky in a small number of at bats this year? I'm sure you can guess what I would say.

One of the biggest misconception about "sabrs" is that they do not believe clutch hitting exists. Actually, sabrs frequently perpetuate this notion when they characterize their belief in this exact way, which is sloppy argumentation.

But it's not true that sabrs don't believe clutch hitting exists (at least most of them). Of course there are clutch situations -- how can that be denied? What they believe instead is that clutch hitting is not a repeatable skill. That is, there is strong evidence that the vast, vast majority of players do not perform similarly in clutch situations year after year. The most common scenario is the players do well in the clutch one year, and miserably in the clutch the next. They are all over the map.

I suspect the two word retort to this post would be "David Ortiz". And yes, David Ortiz has been special in clutch situations, repeatedly, over the course of the past four years -- meaning, in what routinely would be called "clutch" situations (RISP, and Close and Late), he outperformed versus his non-clutch performance.

But as tempting as the use of anecdotal evidence to prove a point might be, the clutch performance of a single hitter does not provide conclusive proof on the question. If we could rely on such anecdotal evidence for conclusions, then you would also have to conclude that based on last weekend's series against the White Sox, the Tigers are a horrible team.

On the other hand -- while most studies on clutch hitting-as-repeatable-skill conclude that it does not exist, Bill James himself began to question the efficacy of sabermetric research in his famous "Underestimating The Fog (http://www.sabr.org/cmsfiles/underestimating.pdf#search=%22underestimating%20th e%20fog%22)" article. In it, he states that just because studies show no repeatable skill in areas such as clutch hitting does not mean it does not exist at all. He suggests the possibility that flaws in research methods might mask the true nature of the variable being studied, and that the issue of clutch hitting might very well be an open question, and so the methodology for studying such phenomena should be rigorously reviewed.

However, at this time, the prevailing opinion in the baseball research community is that clutch hitting as a phenomenon while exists, clutch hitting as a skill does not. I'll tend to agree with that for the time being.

[chasfh]

Why not try to get Mark Grudzielanek from Kansas City. He has a .294 BA, .332 OBP, and .405 SLG, 5 home runs and 39 RBI -- and he is a legitimate #2 hitter, who recently signed a 2-year contract extension, with an option year.

And once we get him and his 2-year extension, and Polanco and his three remaining years come back -- then what?

My prediction is that, now that Polanco's return has been set for 4-6 weeks from time of injury, DD stands pat.

[JS]

But it's not true that sabrs don't believe clutch hitting exists (at least most of them). Of course there are clutch situations -- how can that be denied? What they believe instead is that clutch hitting is not a repeatable skill. That is, there is strong evidence that the vast, vast majority of players do not perform similarly in clutch situations year after year. The most common scenario is the players do well in the clutch one year, and miserably in the clutch the next. They are all over the map.

If anyone is interested in further reading on this topic, I recently came across a detailed study of clutch hitting that finds evidence that it is a repeatable skill, although at a very low level (the best clutch hitters are only a tiny bit better on average in clutch situations than they are overall). The article can be found here (http://www.dolphinsim.com/ratings/notes/clutch.html).

[DET Mr Malefic]

Consider the team's been .500 since August began and if they continue to be .500 the rest of the way, everybody will say it's because of Polanco's injury.

They've been under .500, but I still give you credit for your flawless prediction.

[screwball]

So what exactly defines a "clutch" situation?

[tiger337]

So what exactly defines a "clutch" situation?

My feeling has always been that every Major League at bat is a clutch situation.
Hitting a Major League pitcher is a very difficult thing to do and I would think there is a lot of pressure in every at bat. I also think that players who can't handle pressure would tend not to make it to the majors.

[Oblong]

So what exactly defines a "clutch" situation?

Those situations when "your guy" does well.

[DrWho17]

My feeling has always been that every Major League at bat is a clutch situation.
Hitting a Major League pitcher is a very difficult thing to do and I would think there is a lot of pressure in every at bat. I also think that players who can't handle pressure would tend not to make it to the majors.
Well, that is your opinion. Obviously "a very difficult thing to do" is a subjective term, for a major league baseball player, it is probably not so much.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Tigers' record without Polanco is 7-14. Coincidence ??

[Microline133]

Absolutely a coincidence...Polanco has been a sub-standard player in 2006....his absence has nothing to do with this little slide.

[tiger337]

Well, that is your opinion. Obviously "a very difficult thing to do" is a subjective term, for a major league baseball player, it is probably not so much.

Then why does every player fail to get on base in the majority of his at bats?

[tiger337]

Absolutely a coincidence...Polanco has been a sub-standard player in 2006....his absence has nothing to do with this little slide.

He is significantly better than Perez so it might have something to do with it but it's certainly not the primary reason.

[screwball]

My feeling has always been that every Major League at bat is a clutch situation.
Hitting a Major League pitcher is a very difficult thing to do and I would think there is a lot of pressure in every at bat. I also think that players who can't handle pressure would tend not to make it to the majors.

With all due respect 337, I think there needs to be a better definition. If I understand you correct, their BA would in fact be their success rate for a "clutch" situation. Yes?

I was thinking along the lines of, you do something in a certain situation. They keep track of GWHs (game winning hits) don't they? Something along those lines would make sense to me. I just think you need to define "clutch" to a very precise circumstance to be able to quantify how someone does in the "clutch".

On the other hand, if this is so, then the definition of "clutch" is subjective to ones opinion. Perhaps, not all people would agree what a “clutch” situation is. Kind of seems like this could go around in a circle.

O/T, but since we are talking numbers, do any of the saber (just what exactly do you guys want to be called) guys know what percentage of guys who lead off an inning, via walk, end up scoring?

[screwball]

Then why does every player fail to get on base in the majority of his at bats?

Because hitting a baseball is the single most difficult thing in sports to do. Humans fail between ~70 to 80 percent of the time. Pretty humbling wouldn't you say.

Also, are we talking about "hitting" in the clutch, or getting on base. Two different things In my opinion. One requires you to hit the ball, the other doesn't.

[Oblong]

With all due respect 337, I think there needs to be a better definition. If I understand you correct, their BA would in fact be their success rate for a "clutch" situation. Yes?

I was thinking along the lines of, you do something in a certain situation. They keep track of GWHs (game winning hits) don't they? Something along those lines would make sense to me. I just think you need to define "clutch" to a very precise circumstance to be able to quantify how someone does in the "clutch".

On the other hand, if this is so, then the definition of "clutch" is subjective to ones opinion. Perhaps, not all people would agree what a “clutch” situation is. Kind of seems like this could go around in a circle.

O/T, but since we are talking numbers, do any of the saber (just what exactly do you guys want to be called) guys know what percentage of guys who lead off an inning, via walk, end up scoring?

A run is a run. Runs in the first 3 innings do not count less than those in the last 3.

Here's an analogy that I thnk sums up the problem with the "clutch" idea.

You are a kid. There's 5 or 6 of you at camp or at the park. Ther'es a single water jug. The jug gets passed around. Everybody takes big swigs. Then the next to last person gets it and there's not much left. He finishes it off. What does the last kid say to him? "Don't be a hog. Save some for me"

[tiger337]

Because hitting a baseball is the single most difficult thing in sports to do. Humans fail between ~70 to 80 percent of the time. Pretty humbling wouldn't you say.

That was exactly my point. I think it's always difficult to get a hit whether it's a clutch situation on not. That's why I don't believe most players perform a lot differently in clutch situations than non-clutch situations. Sure, there are some exceptions but I don't think it's as big of a difference as people say.

As for how clutch situations might be defined, it usually involves a players performance late in the game in close games with men on base. There are lots of different ways to define it. It could be 7th inning or later in games where the hitter's team is tied or behind by 1 or 2 runs. That's just an example though. It's really hard to define though because almost any situation could be a clutch situation depending on the game and teams involved.

[tiger337]

O/T, but since we are talking numbers, do any of the saber (just what exactly do you guys want to be called) guys know what percentage of guys who lead off an inning, via walk, end up scoring?

Somebody asked this last year. I don't have the answer with me at the moment but I remember that leading off with a walk was no more likely to produce a run than leading off with a single.

[estrepe1]

There are different pressures for each situation.

Usually I don't believe so much in clutch. Craig Monroe this second half has me second guessing myself at times. Mainly because he looks lost at times early in the game and then will just lock in when the game is on the line. He is pretty much the first batter I have seen like that and I am uncertain if it really is something that he could sustain from year to year.

Yes Ortiz has hit a lot of late homeruns for the Red Sox but he is a good hitter no matter what the situation....

[screwball]

Somebody asked this last year. I don't have the answer with me at the moment but I remember that leading off with a walk was no more likely to produce a run than leading off with a single.

That would be the same thing, almost, I guess. Let me re-phrase the question to "what is the percentage of guys that score who led off the inning with a walk, or a single?" Of course a screwball like myself would then want to know the breakdown between the ones that walked and the ones that got a single. Just like I would want to know how many errors a guy made is broke down between throwing and catching.

As far as the other topic, clutch hitting, I think the point has been proven, there are many opinions of what is "clutch." I can see Oblong's theory, but that didn't seem to go along with yours, but I can't say either is right, or wrong. Although, I would have a different one than both, but that doesn’t make it correct either.

Wouldn't it be true, to be known statistically as "clutch" you first must define exactly what clutch is, therefore you can measure it? I don't know if measure is a valid term in the statistical world.

I think I understand your point though. A hit is a hit is a hit. The time it takes place CAN or CANNOT be clutch. Kind of like a random thing, statistically?

[Oblong]

I saw somewhere that when the leadoff guy gets on, either walk or single, that an average of .8 runs score that inning.

[BiggieG]

Many of us have played sports. I agree, a hit is a hit, td a td, drive in the fairway a drive in the fairway at anytime in the game. However to say there is no added pressure when you have the opportunity to decide the game in the last swing of the bat, club or stick would be a gross misstatement.

[Ingefanclub]

A run is a run. Runs in the first 3 innings do not count less than those in the last 3.

Here's an analogy that I thnk sums up the problem with the "clutch" idea.

You are a kid. There's 5 or 6 of you at camp or at the park. Ther'es a single water jug. The jug gets passed around. Everybody takes big swigs. Then the next to last person gets it and there's not much left. He finishes it off. What does the last kid say to him? "Don't be a hog. Save some for me"

I don't get it.

[tiger337]

Wouldn't it be true, to be known statistically as "clutch" you first must define exactly what clutch is, therefore you can measure it? I don't know if measure is a valid term in the statistical world.

I think I understand your point though. A hit is a hit is a hit. The time it takes place CAN or CANNOT be clutch. Kind of like a random thing, statistically?


I'll give you a simple example of how a saber might determine whether a player is clutch. Let's say you define a clutch situation as 7th inning or more and tying or go ahead runs on base. Suppose a player gets 40 at bats in that situation and bats .375. In all his other at bats, he is a .275 hitter. Is he clutch? 40 at bats is not a lot so it could be luck. But suppose you take the last 5 years and calculate this players stats - clutch and non-clutch every year. If he does far better in clutch situations every year, then that might be evidence that he is a clutch hitter. Most players don't but there are always exceptions.

My feeling is this: If Monroe gets a solo home run in the 9th inning to win the game 6-5, this would generally be considered a clutch hit. But what about the other 5 runs they scored? Is the 6th run really any more important than the first 5? If they didn't get the first 5 runs, there would no 6th run. This is why I don't worry too much about clutch hits. I want a team to hit well in all situations. If a teams hits consistently well, they'll score runs. Some of the hits will be "clutch". Some won't. But they'll score runs. If they don't hit consistently well, they won't score runs consistently regardless of when the hits happen.

[tiger337]

Many of us have played sports. I agree, a hit is a hit, td a td, drive in the fairway a drive in the fairway at anytime in the game. However to say there is no added pressure when you have the opportunity to decide the game in the last swing of the bat, club or stick would be a gross misstatement.

Sure there is some added pressure. I just don't think there is that much difference between a players performance in high and low pressure situations. The vast majority of players do not become completely different hitters just because of the situation in the game.

[Oblong]

Many of us have played sports. I agree, a hit is a hit, td a td, drive in the fairway a drive in the fairway at anytime in the game. However to say there is no added pressure when you have the opportunity to decide the game in the last swing of the bat, club or stick would be a gross misstatement.

but it's only pressure because of past failure. That player who "came through in the clutch" probably failed earlier in the game so I don't see how he deserves credit.

[tiger337]

but it's only pressure because of past failure. That player who "came through in the clutch" probably failed earlier in the game so I don't see how he deserves credit.

He certainly doesn't deserve more credit than the players who didn't fail earlier in the game.

[apabruce]

If a guy is statistically determined to be clutch, presumably because he concentrates better in higher pressure situations, I want to know why he can't manage to put pressure on himself to be "clutch" all the time.

[screwball]

Damn, this turned into cool discussion. Very interesting.

I think there is such a thing as clutch. I have no way to prove it. But I have no idea how to define it either. Isn't that what research is all about?

I think one thing that matters, but can't be measured is adrenalin. Depending on the situaton. Guys that produce under the highest rushes, would be in my mind, the best clutch hitter.

[DaYooperASBDT]

The only real "clutch" situations I tend to think about are:

1. Key hits in innings 7-9
2. Hits with RISP

I would think both situations could have metrics, if you use career stats. But I suspect there's a ton of variation from year to year?

[Oblong]

I still don't get why a guy who hits a 3 run HR in the second to put his team up 5-1 wouldn't get the same credit as a guy who hits a single in the 8th to make it 2-1.

Do you call a student clutch if he's a slacker all semester and rallies to get a 98% on the final to squeek out a C?

These clutch hitters are like centerfielders who hold up on the ball so that they can dive for it and look good while doing it. If they got a hit in the second or fifth then maybe there's no need to be "clutch" in the 8th or 9th.

[screwball]

I still don't get why a guy who hits a 3 run HR in the second to put his team up 5-1 wouldn't get the same credit as a guy who hits a single in the 8th to make it 2-1.

Do you call a student clutch if he's a slacker all semester and rallies to get a 98% on the final to squeek out a C?

These clutch hitters are like centerfielders who hold up on the ball so that they can dive for it and look good while doing it. If they got a hit in the second or fifth then maybe there's no need to be "clutch" in the 8th or 9th.

Let's go back to August 5th. Pudge hit a 2 out, 2 run homer to beat the Indians. Compare that vs. his first at bat tonight, for example. Don't you think your juices would be a a bit different? Don't you think that is a much more pressure situation?

Sure, if someone would have done something before, it wouldn't have mattered. But they didn't, so the situation presents itself. How do you respond.

[tiger337]

Let's go back to August 5th. Pudge hit a 2 out, 2 run homer to beat the Indians. Compare that vs. his first at bat tonight, for example. Don't you think your juices would be a a bit different? Don't you think that is a much more pressure situation?



I think we have two separate arguments here:

(1) Do clutch hitter's exist?

(2) Are clutch hits more important than other hits which also produce runs?

[Oblong]

Let's go back to August 5th. Pudge hit a 2 out, 2 run homer to beat the Indians. Compare that vs. his first at bat tonight, for example. Don't you think your juices would be a a bit different? Don't you think that is a much more pressure situation?

Sure, if someone would have done something before, it wouldn't have mattered. But they didn't, so the situation presents itself. How do you respond.

The situation didn't present itself. It was caused by previous failures. Pudge gets credit for a go ahead HR. But I don't view it as any of an accomplishment than if he hit it earlier in the game.

[screwball]

337, define clutch. Just give that some thought.

Oblong, respectfully, we'll have to agree to disagree.

[tiger337]

337, define clutch. Just give that some thought.

.

I've probably given it too much thought already today! But I'll boil it down to this:
A clutch situation is any situation where a player feels pressure that he doesn't normally feel in other batting situations. A good clutch hitter would be someone who excels in these high pressure situations more than he does in low pressure situations.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Maybe it's not so much WHEN in the game the situation occurs so much as WHAT the score is. You could look at hits that either tie the score or put your team in the lead. But forget GWRBI, that stat was a joke.