The 40 game mark.

[Motor City Sonics]

This is a big point in the season. A quarter of the season has passed and the Tigers are 27-13.

Hoodathunkit.



40 games is a great but the REAL test for this team is the stretch of games
between May 26th - June 11th. If this team even goes just .500 in that stretch they are for real. But I think they are anyway. They needed to shake off that loser mentality and I think they actually are doing that.

[laverty]

And I keep waiting for the standings to update!:smoker:

[ewsieg]

Best record in baseball at this milestone (or at least a share of the best record)

When is the next Sox series, i'd love to see us pay them back.

[laverty]

Detroit 27 13 .675
Chicago 26 13 .667

LOL

[spikesglaring]

Sadly, I'm still not sold on the team wholeheardtedly. Maybe it's because I've seen them look so terrible down the stretch in the past, or maybe it's because games like today's are played sloppily. Either way, as much as I wanted to call this team a legit contender at 40 games, I feel it's premature at this point in the season.

Even with that said, I'm enjoying this season a ton right now. This team's fun to watch & has a lot of talent.

[Yoda]

You're playing it smart, Spikes. Of course a lot can happen. Especially health-wise. There's no reason to start printing playoff tickets already. But what I think MCS meant is that this isn't a fluke. They are this good. Let's jost hope it continues.

[tiger337]

If the young players (especially the pitchers) continue to come through and the team stays healthy, this team will contend.

[Ron Burgandy]

As great a start as we've had, it really makes one appreciate just how incredible 35-5 was. I mean, that's 8 games better than our 06 start. Wow. I really wish I was old enough to have been following the team then.

[tigersfandm]

Remember though last year, the orioles were 26-14 at the 40 game mark and everybody questioned if they are for real. They then slacked off big time and didn't even come close to .500, but I see us having the pitching depth and the lineup where anybody can pretty much contribute to keep consistant (look at vance wilson last night for example), so I don't see a falloff for the tigers like last years orioles did. Just keep focusing one game at a time and one series at a time and concentrate like they have been doing and things will work out good.

goooooooooooooooooo tigers!

[spikesglaring]

I wasn't disagreeing with him really Yoda. I was just referring to how some people might want to declare this team is a contender. As good as we are at this point, a lot can change in terms of injuries, players falling off in the second half, & simple breaks not going the Tigers way anymore.

We're a good team for once, but I'd assume stay cautiously optimisitc for now.

[diaspora04]

This team is a contender.

[mikec444]

On pace for 108 wins! Sure feels good to say that...

They're not 108 wins good, but by now you've got to admit they're 90 wins good. 40 games is too long for a fluke. While some guys will come back down to earth (Maroth/Robertson) and somebody's bound to get hurt, most everyone is just doing what's expected of them or what we know they're capable of. And there's still room for obvious improvement (Polanco, Meat or his replacement), plus a mid-season trade with a deep farm system.

[ewsieg]

This team has the best record in baseball 1/4 of the way through it. It's nonsense to say we're going to have the best record at the end of the season, but it's also nonsense to say we're not a contender. Hell, it's the Tigers (and White Sox) that are knocking teams out of contention

[estrepe1]

Remember though last year, the orioles were 26-14 at the 40 game mark and everybody questioned if they are for real. They then slacked off big time and didn't even come close to .500, but I see us having the pitching depth and the lineup where anybody can pretty much contribute to keep consistant (look at vance wilson last night for example), so I don't see a falloff for the tigers like last years orioles did. Just keep focusing one game at a time and one series at a time and concentrate like they have been doing and things will work out good.

goooooooooooooooooo tigers!

This is a good point. Although I watched both teams and I think that the Tigers have more staying power than the Orioles did last season.

I don't think the team will be 108 wins good..... I think they have a shot at exceeding my expectations by a lot. Who knows if they are 90 wins good though the chances are possible.

[billfer]

On pace for 108 wins! Sure feels good to say that...

They're not 108 wins good, but by now you've got to admit they're 90 wins good. 40 games is too long for a fluke. While some guys will come back down to earth (Maroth/Robertson) and somebody's bound to get hurt, most everyone is just doing what's expected of them or what we know they're capable of. And there's still room for obvious improvement (Polanco, Meat or his replacement), plus a mid-season trade with a deep farm system.

Forty games is probably too long for a fluke, but it doesn't prove that they are actually as good as their record. It also doesn't prevent other long negative flukey periods as well.

I haven't checked since the last series, but through 37 games the team had won 24. In 2000 the Tigers had a stretch where they won 24 of 37 and still managed to finish under .500.

I'm as excited anyone, but I'm not ready to conclude they are 90 wins good.

[spikesglaring]

We'll see what happens. I just don't feel like seeing any hopes being dashed because people were calling us contenders in May. If we're still here in July & August, then I'll believe the Tigers can win something meaningful. Until then, it's just way too early to call anyone a contender or pretender in my opinion.

Look at the Astros the past two seasons. Look at the Orioles from last season (whom I admittedly believe we're better than; however, it still shows this is too early).

[estrepe1]

I am ready to say that I expect an above .500 finish. I am not ready to say they will be able to contend in August and September.

[tiger337]

The Tigers have won 27 or more out of their first 40 games only 4 other times: 1909, 1950, 1961, 1984. Each time they finished the season with 95 or more victories. Obviously, that doesn't mean it will happen again this time. If anyone has an easy way to check all the teams who won 27 or more of their first 40 and see how many won 90 or more or 95 or more, that would be ibteresting.

[BringbackBrocail]

On pace for 108 wins! Sure feels good to say that...

They're not 108 wins good, but by now you've got to admit they're 90 wins good. .


Considering we'd finish 88-74 if we just play .500 ball for the rest of the season, I'd certainly have to agree.

[cruzer1]

All the Tigers have to do is go .500 the rest of the way to win 88 games, which is pretty impressive. This is also proof at how impressive 35-5 is, which is always the number that blows my mind. I think it's healthy to be skeptical about the rest of the season, let the Tigers prove it with their play. So far they are.

[apabruce]

This team and this season feels more like 1961 than 1968 or 1984. We were logical contenders in 68 and 84, but in 61 we came from nowhere. I'm hoping we do better than 1961, where we ultimately were eclipsed by the Yankees. We also won 100+ games that year, and as a 16 year old who had never seen Tiger success, it was a sweet season for me.

If you had asked me at the beginning of this season if I would take a 1961 type season, I would have said emphatically "YES."

[catswithbats]

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e379/springtraining2006/firstplacealone.gif

[Motor City Sonics]

Again that stretch between May 26th and June 11th is going to really determine just how "for real" this team really is.

3 games vs. Cleveland
4 games vs. New York Yankees
3 games vs. Boston
3 games @ White Sox (its about time - I want revenge!) (dont pitch to Thome).
3 games @ Toronto

16 very very important games.
If they can go 8-8 in that stretch they are for Real
If they go 10-6 or better its going to be a very fun and exciting late summer.

[tiger337]

Again that stretch between May 26th and June 11th is going to really determine just how "for real" this team really is.

3 games vs. Cleveland
4 games vs. New York Yankees
3 games vs. Boston
3 games @ White Sox (its about time - I want revenge!) (dont pitch to Thome).
3 games @ Toronto

16 very very important games.
If they can go 8-8 in that stretch they are for Real
If they go 10-6 or better its going to be a very fun and exciting late summer.

Jim Leyland: "I don't give a **** about May 26. Let's win tomorrow's game. "

[One Man's Fool]

Part of enjoying this is enjoying the opportunity to dream big dreams. It's been years since we've been able to do that. Let's not hold back out of fear of disappointment. Let's freakin' go for it!

Rogers, Bonderman, Maroth and Verlander. That's my choice for our postseason rotation.

[Tyrus]

Let's take the dream even one step further, Fool: What if the Tigers are laying the foundation for a dynasty?

I can see where we could have long-term success with a rotation of Verlander, Zumaya, Bondo, Maroth and Tata; with Fernando Rodney and Whelen in the bullpen; and young position players like Granderson, Maybin, Shelton forming the nucleus of a perennial contender, and maybe even a title or three.

Wouldn't that be nice?

[One Man's Fool]

Let's take the dream even one step further, Fool: What if the Tigers are laying the foundation for a dynasty?

I can see where we could have long-term success with a rotation of Verlander, Zumaya, Bondo, Maroth and Tata; with Fernando Rodney and Whelen in the bullpen; and young position players like Granderson, Maybin, Shelton forming the nucleus of a perennial contender, and maybe even a title or three.

Wouldn't that be nice?

It wouldn't suck!

[osurower]

Jim Leyland: "I don't give a **** about May 26. Let's win tomorrow's game. "
I didn't expect myself to say this, but Leyland has done a fine job. He's gotten the message across that today's game is the only one that matters and the Tigers are better off for it. Maybe his tirade will be the turning point for the team.

[DaYooperASBDT]

Breathe deeply, Tiger fans ...........

http://www.omidyar.net/group/rok/file/8.21.11242952218/get/frilly%20pink%20roses.jpg

[whitecapwendy]

Part of enjoying this is enjoying the opportunity to dream big dreams. It's been years since we've been able to do that. Let's not hold back out of fear of disappointment. Let's freakin' go for it!

Rogers, Bonderman, Maroth and Verlander. That's my choice for our postseason rotation.
By now all of you know my opinion on this subject. :classic:

http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e249/whitecapwendy/12-05003.jpg

[GartenSpartan]

The Tigers have won 27 or more out of their first 40 games only 4 other times: 1909, 1950, 1961, 1984. Each time they finished the season with 95 or more victories. Obviously, that doesn't mean it will happen again this time. If anyone has an easy way to check all the teams who won 27 or more of their first 40 and see how many won 90 or more or 95 or more, that would be ibteresting.

I'm pretty sure that it was posted in the "How do the '06 Tigers compare" thread that in the last fifteen years, 20 teams won 26 of their first 39 games and 15 of them were playoff teams. So it sure sounds like we are more likely to have a very good year than tank like the Orioles did last year...at least based on the last 15 years and what you posted about what the Tigers have done in the past.

[mikec444]

Let's take the dream even one step further, Fool: What if the Tigers are laying the foundation for a dynasty?

I can see where we could have long-term success with a rotation of Verlander, Zumaya, Bondo, Maroth and Tata; with Fernando Rodney and Whelen in the bullpen; and young position players like Granderson, Maybin, Shelton forming the nucleus of a perennial contender, and maybe even a title or three.

Wouldn't that be nice?

While I like the optimism...

Dreaming about our roster three years from now, with an A-ball pitcher occupying a key role, is what I've had to do for the last 15 years while we've sucked......I'm living in the moment now

[sabretooth]

While I like the optimism...

Dreaming about our roster three years from now, with an A-ball pitcher occupying a key role, is what I've had to do for the last 15 years while we've sucked......I'm living in the moment now

I'm totally with this perspective. At this point, the Tigers are playing so well, I don't even have to think postseason much less next season to make myself feel really, really good about being a Tiger fan. Live in the moment, enjoy the game today. We are playing the best baseball that we have in 13 years.

Zumaya and Verlander have far outperformed my fondest hopes for them at this point. They are pitching extremely well in very competitive situations. Bonderman may never become a "stud" (whatever the heck that is), but he may be a very capable and durable pitcher for a number of years.

Frankly, I'm less worried about Verlander and Zumaya having bad second halves than I am worried about people having unrealistic expectations. Our young pitchers are more likely than not to struggle in turns 2, 3 and 4 against the AL competition, so let's "keep it realistic", root for their continued success and just have some fun!

On the optimistic (but still fairly realistic!) side: if the Tigers score about 4.75 runs a ballgame (only halfway between their 2004 runs scored average and their 2005 runs scored average) from here on out, and if their bullpen can maintain their ERA in the low-to-mid 3's (which would be just above average for AL bullpens), the rotation only needs to have about a 4.25 ERA from here on out for us to have about a 4.75 - 4 advantage on the competition for the rest of the season. That would probably be good enough for another 65-70 wins, totaling 90-95 wins and a shot at the division crown.

The above scenario is fairly optimistic, as it would require continued health for our pitchers and Maggs/Guillen staying healthy and in the upper 800's OPS-wise, but I feel confident that the Tigers will win about 85-88 games this year. OTOH, we haven't seen the best of what Granderson can do, Polanco could get healthy and start hitting normally again, and we're likely to acquire a good LH bat if we are competitive and if DY doesn't come back.

[motownphilly]

One thing we are missing in these predictions (especially the ones about us wearing out)...Mr. I spent wildly on the Wings when they needed it. Holland was always given the money to help insure the teams success. DD was not only great at building a Marlin's team from scratch, he also helped engineer a "built" team of veterans...and Leyland managed them.

If Mr. I is truly going to back up his words of spending money...we could be the ones getting a player or two at the trade deadline...and we might be getting that veteran starting pitcher to take us down the stretch when either Nate or Justin will begin to wear down. I didn't always agree with the players the Wings would plug holes with but Holland knew better than me...and the Wings won Cups. I think the Tigers will have that same attention and I think we have a better GM.

[motownphilly]

That would probably be good enough for another 65-70 wins, totaling 90-95 wins and a shot at the division crown.

I really think, with the White Sox in our division, we would have to win 102+ games to take this division. We are on pace for 109 wins at this point, but it would be a miracle for us to keep up the pace...but hey, the Mariners won 114 or 115 games a few years back...with a team that no one expected to be THAT good. So you never know.

[Dawgs]

The difference between this team and the Orioles last year and KC in 2003 is the Tigers are balanced. They lead the league in pitching and DER. Thier lineup is producing, yet I still dont believe theyve hit full stride. I liken them more to last years Sox team.

The pitching will hold up. Robertson and Maroth are at the stage in thier career where pitchers without the one devastating pitch finally figure out how to get big league hitters out consistently. Bonderman can be overpowering. Verlander looks like hes learning how to pitch, not just throw. And what can you say about Rogers. Hes been the glue. The inspiration. The warrior. We are getting more value than what we paid for. Thats nice for a change.

The bullpen too has been outstanding. For all the bitchlng done about Jones the guy has 12 saves in 13 opportunities, leading the league. And hes done that after missing 2 weeks. Zumaya and Rodney have both been unhittable at times. Their control sometimes gets me on the edge of my seat though. Grilli, who is arguably our "worst" bullpen guy, has some good stuff. Good enough that if he finds his groove he could be pretty damn solid.

The lineup is near the top of the league in homers and has scored some runs. I dont think theyve hit thier stride yet. Thier hitters have been kinda streaky and we really havent had two guys hot at the same time. Guillen is back though. Hes hitting sometyhing like .368 over the last 30+ games and Shelton looks like his media induced slump is about over. Get Magglio swinging well again and the lineup could be devastating.

The defense has been superb. Inge, Monroe and Ordonez have all surpassed just about everyones expectations. Granderson will win gold gloves. Shelton actually is a pretty good first baseman. Guillen is playing below expectations but none of his errors have hurt us too bad.

And at the top you have a cagey, veteran manager with a young innovative staff. Leyland has them playing an aggressive style of baseball. Hes kept them focused. And while we all question his moves it seems he always presses the right button.

Ive been trying to remain cautiously optimistic this season and I still believe they wont reach thier potential for 1 or 2 more years. Id like to see them add a left handed bat to replace Dmitri who I dont see recovering this year after legal troubles piled on top of injury. But I dont think they will trade away thir future either to get a Dontrelle Willis or somebody similar. I just dont think its warranted.

I like this teams chances and the excitment grows.

[mottsi]

Something else to point out, if it matters

We have played 6 more away games than home games.

[Glutn4Pnshmnt]

Again that stretch between May 26th and June 11th is going to really determine just how "for real" this team really is.

3 games vs. Cleveland
4 games vs. New York Yankees
3 games vs. Boston
3 games @ White Sox (its about time - I want revenge!) (dont pitch to Thome).
3 games @ Toronto

16 very very important games.
If they can go 8-8 in that stretch they are for Real
If they go 10-6 or better its going to be a very fun and exciting late summer.

The last few years we have held our own outside of our division. We played bad in division. I don't see those games as nearly important as our division games with the stupid unbalanced schedule.