A White Sox fan critiques Detroit's pitching staff

[Atom]

I don't know about you...but I smell fear and apprehension.

A couple of notes the the Tigers "vaunted" pitching staff.

I can't really argue against Bonderman or Verlander. Both are quite talented and have the potential to do well. However, it's far from a given that they keep pitching well. Bonderman has yet to post a sub-4.50 ERA in his three full major league seasons. This might be a Jon Garland-like breakout year, or it might be more of the same. Verlander is a rookie, so who knows exactly what he'll give you from here on out. Maybe he keeps dominating, maybe he has a few more rough outings like the one against the Sox. It's a crap shoot. The outlook for the rest of the staff isn't as rosy.

Mike Maroth is getting really lucky right now. His WHIP is at 1.40 and his strikeout rate is only at 3.70. That suggests that he should have a much higher ERA than he currently does. An awful lot of balls are being put in play and a lot of men are getting on base against him without much damage being done. That won't last forever. Combine that with his 4.69 career ERA in 4 seasons in the majors and things don't look so good. Nate Robinson is similar. Despite a WHIP of 1.34, he has a respectable ERA. He strikes out guys a little more frequently, but he's not exactly Randy Johnson. He's another guy with a high career ERA (4.77) that so far has allowed fewer runs that one would expect.

Kenny Rogers is a notorius quick starter who starts to fade around the All-star break. Over the last 3 years he has a 3.87 ERA before the break and a 4.80 ERA after it. Evidence suggests that he's doing the same thing this year. There's no way he finishes with a 3.23 ERA.

The comparisons to the 2005 staff are out of line. The Tigers' staff has a very spotty major league resume, outside of a few decent years from Kenny Rogers. They don't have anywhere near as much experience or as successful a past as the Sox staff last year. Garland had the least experience on the Sox staff, and he still had more than every starter on the Tigers except Rogers. One could argue that Contreras had little major league experience, but he also was pitching in the Cuban professional leagues while the kids on the Tigers were still in grammar school. Plus, the Sox starters had a much greater history of success. Buerhle was already an established with three 15-win seasons under his belt in his 4 and a half in the majors. Freddy Garcia also had 3 15-win seasons under his belt, and might have had another in 2004 if he had been on the Sox the whole year. Orlando Hernandez was a fairly solid starter for the Yankees who had a dominant history in the playoffs. Only Rogers has any history of success, and that's balanced by years of mediocrity.

Detroit has a decent team, but by no means is this team a threat to win 95 games or more like the White Sox are. There pitching has been good so far, but there is no way it is as strong as ours. They still have to play a lot of games against us. If they can hold their own, maybe I'll reconsider. But right now, they're probably going to max out at about 90 wins, and my guess is 88. That shouldn't be enough to be a major threat to the Sox unless some things go wrong.

[Ingefanclub]

What I take from this article is that the Tigers pitchers are still very young thus they will improve upon the numbers they put up this year.

[shauntacular]

I hate white sox fans.

[Yoda]

Baseball Prospectus disagrees with them. I think there's something to be said for most of his comments, but I'm not going to get worried until there's something to worry about. I didn't think the good pitching would last this long but they just keep pitching one good game after another.

[IndyJoker]

I hate white sox fans.

I second that

[tiger337]

I think it's a reasonable analysis. I think the Tiger staff can do better than he says but I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be right. Still, it's nice to see a White Sox fan be concerned enough about Tiger pitchers to analyze them.

[pyrotigers]

Jon Garland - Has had one good year in the majors, clearly his 6.18 era this year is more accurate.

Mark Buerhle - Clearly prone to a first half collapse.

Jose Contreras - Who knows how much time he'll spend on the DL this year?

McCarthy - Basically a rookie, who knows what to expect from him.

Vasquez - Has not posted a good era the last few years.

Freddy Garcia - A 4.56 ERA with a 6-1 record? He'll be coming back to earth soon.


Obviously I didn't put as much research into mine as the Chisox guy ;) but it's pretty easy to say negative things about any pitcher in the league.

[Atom]

Here's the thread if you want to see what some of their other fans are saying about our Detroit Tigers.

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=49952&st=0

[84 Lives!!!]

I don't know about you...but I smell fear and apprehension.

It smells less like "fear and apprehension" and a LOT more like the same state of denial we were in last year... :grin:

[CaliforniaDreaming]

I've got no problem with an opposting fan logically displaying his bias towards his own team. We probably do the same thing with a bias our way. Just being talked about is a good thing.

[djhutch]

His criteria for the Tigers' pitching staff playing over their heads is that they have a shaky big league resume. So did the White Sox staff last year.

[thewave84]

He was doing a reasonable analysis of the Tiger pitchers by using WHIP and ERA to back up his assertions. Then when he gets to White Sox pitchers the only stat he uses is W's. That's where his analysis became weak.

[TonyJM]

I think it's a reasonable analysis. I think the Tiger staff can do better than he says but I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be right. Still, it's nice to see a White Sox fan be concerned enough about Tiger pitchers to analyze them.


Agreed...Rogers, Maroth and Robertson are likely to come down a bit, as is Verlander. Contrares is likely to due so as well, and I think Garland has a chance to be a full run worse this season than he was last year. Ultimately, I think I'm alot more comfortable with the Sox front end starters than ours...One area where Chicago is going to have trouble replicating last year's success is the bullpen, though. Politte-Cotts-Jenks-Hermanson were ridiculously filthy last year, and there's simply no way to repeat those numbers.


-Tony

[mc_madness]

Sox fans generally respect the Tigers. I read that thread and it's fairly complimentary...

[diaspora04]

In my experience, the Sox-Tigers fan relationship is much better than the Sox-Indians fan relationship.

[Sidney_N_OK]

I thought he did a good job in his analysis. He just hasn't looked at it from the point of young pitchers who are growing up and are starting to reach their upsides. Also, Rogers has almost a .600% career winning percentage (thanks to Jim Price today) so it isn't exactly like he has had a few winning seasons as he suggests. The Tigers are probably pitching better than they are capable but they are still a run better than any other team in the league! Also, how many saves do we have where we are up by 2 or more runs. The point is they have been good, really good.

[JonBenke]

If you read the entire thread over there, there are some pretty good -- unbias -- thoughts towards our team, most of which are really good.

You can't talk down their road record, one guys says -- and I agree.

[Buddha]

Sox fans generally respect the Tigers. I read that thread and it's fairly complimentary...

In my experience, the Sox-Tigers fan relationship is much better than the Sox-Indians fan relationship.

Come to a Tiger/Sox game at the Cell now that the Sox are good. And wear your Tigers jersey. Then tell me how you feel about the Sox fans.

I've been to Jacobs Field, I've been to the Cell. There's no comparison. Sox fans are the worst (for example, it's easier for Sox fans to spit on you because they lack so many teeth).

[pyrotigers]

I think the average sox fan, much like the average tiger fan (probably) is an unknowledgable jerk.

But when you go to a good forum like this one, or apparently like this sox one, you are going to meet the best of the best so to speak :P

[Buddha]

But when you go to a good forum like this one, or apparently like this sox one, you are going to meet the best of the best so to speak :P

Probably. Especially when you consider how few Sox fans actually know how to use a computer (Most call them "TV typewriter doohickey things" in between punching their wives and watching the Blue Collar Comedy Tour on their betamax's).

So to be a Sox fan who can type ON a computer AND find the internet has to put them in the top 2-3%.

[dt35456884]

I notice Deznuts, our resident fan of the only team to ever throw a World Series, doesn't troll here quite so much now that the Tigers are rather comfortably keeping pace for the best record in the major leagues.

[Buddha]

I notice Deznuts, our resident fan of the only team to ever throw a World Series, doesn't troll here quite so much now that the Tigers are rather comfortably keeping pace for the best record in the major leagues.

He's probably been distracted by something shiny or a siren. Those things can keep Sox fans busy for months.

[estrepe1]

I personally will never forget the Red Sox fans that continually asked me why I didn't find a real team to root for....

[dt35456884]

He's probably been distracted by something shiny or a siren. Those things can keep Sox fans busy for months.

Well when you see him wading through the dumpster on your way to work tomorrow, tell him MotownSports says hi.

[Buddha]

Well when you see him wading through the dumpster on your way to work tomorrow, tell him MotownSports says hi.

Alright. I suppose I can.

It's just that once they make eye contact, they start asking for money. Fortunately, because he's a Sox fan, I can distract him with a shiny penny. And after I throw it, he'll run and chase it.

[eastside billee]

I will hate the White Sox as long as GUillen is manager. Some of them didn't even go to the White House for their meet and greet for winning the world series. Freakin Commies and disrespectful punks as far as I'm concerned.
If they allowed me, when the White Sox came to town I'd march my butt around the stadium with a banner stating my distaste and my reason.

Sox fans are just jealous and afraid.

[potthole]

Although I didn't have a problem, per-say with the observations made about the Tigers pitchers, this guy sort of lost me with his comparisons with Sux pitchers. Sure, they won the World Series last year, but if you look at past track records of their pitchers prior to last season, they ain't so pretty either.

[Brycecmu]

wait, wait, wait...the White Sox have fans? The last time I was in Chicago I dont think I saw one person wearing Sox gear, just Cubs. The Sox are that town's second fiddle, thus WAY less fans there. The few fans the Sox do have are die hards and VERY defensive about their team.

Let them talk all they want about us...we have no right to say they are right or wrong. Most of them are giving us credit because credit is due. I have to agree that we will likely top out at 85-90 wins, but who in here wouldnt be happy with 85-90 wins? I sure as hell would!

Noone can really predict right now where both these teams will be at the end of the season, however a great measuring stick will be after the next 3 weeks when both teams play a very tough portion of their schedule. I hope we are up to the task, but at least we will know if our kitties are for real.

Personally, I think the Sox are 1 or 2 injuries away from mediocrity. If Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, or one of their pitchers are down for any length of time, it could spell BIG trouble for them.

For now though, we, as a city, need to support our boys a little better at the park. Ive been to 5 or 6 games this year and the showing has been poor. Granted we havent had very good weather for any of the games, but we need to start turning into Tigertown again or else things will go downhill fast. I don't want to piss Jim Leyland off either...you can see the frustration of the low attendance already affecting him.

Hope to see you guys at the park!

[zachcadillac]

Baseball Prospectus disagrees with them. I think there's something to be said for most of his comments, but I'm not going to get worried until there's something to worry about. I didn't think the good pitching would last this long but they just keep pitching one good game after another.

BP believes the pitching will slip. To what are you referring?

[Imminent Threat]

I don't know if anyone else mentioned this, but, hasn't Bonderman's ERA dropped every year since he has been in the Majors?

That should scare the bejesus outta any Sux fan.

[mottsi]

I hate the Sox fans as much as I hate imbreeding (which they pretty much go hand in hand), but until the Tigers win the next World Series I will let them talk. We have sucked far too long for other teams to believe in us.

[jake]

I will hate the White Sox as long as GUillen is manager. Some of them didn't even go to the White House for their meet and greet for winning the world series. Freakin Commies and disrespectful punks as far as I'm concerned.
If they allowed me, when the White Sox came to town I'd march my butt around the stadium with a banner stating my distaste and my reason.

Sox fans are just jealous and afraid.

What is wrong with Ozzie Guillen? He gets his team to play hard every day and he's passionate. He has personality. He gets his team to play better than they probably are. He's the anti-Trammell.

[estrepe1]

I think Billee is talkin about Guillen the person more than Guillen the manager.

[Ingefanclub]

Kenny Rogers is a notorius quick starter who starts to fade around the All-star break. Over the last 3 years he has a 3.87 ERA before the break and a 4.80 ERA after it. Evidence suggests that he's doing the same thing this year. There's no way he finishes with a 3.23 ERA.

* His ERA last year was 3.46 *

[Ingefanclub]

What is wrong with Ozzie Guillen? He gets his team to play hard every day and he's passionate. He has personality. He gets his team to play better than they probably are. He's the anti-Trammell.

Guillen made some ugly comments about Magglio Ordonez last year when the Tigers and Sox were playing.

[Glutn4Pnshmnt]

and guillen made some comments about sparky being a horse $h!t manager

[Dawgs]

All his comments are is spin. You can slant almost any fact to your point of view. I choose to believe that our young guys have hit the point in thier careers where they start to get outs with consistency. I also choose to believe Leyland will do a better job keeping them fresh than thier previous managers.


I lived in Chicago for 8 years. The fans there are the most vile in all of sports. I couldnt wear my teams jerseys into the games without a fight. I started wearing a jacket or Id put the jersey on inside the park.

[AlaskanTigersFan]

K. I'll be the Prick here and say it. If you take out Thome, u take away atleast 10 wins for the White Sox this year. He is their team. If he goes down, even their pitching can't save them.... Keep that in mind too.

[Tramfan]

You guys remember the SNL skit about "da bears"? Well those guys really talk that way and I was suprised to find out in the time I spent in south side Chicago the skit wasn't that far off. It wouldn't be too difficult to point out how the majortiy of the players on the White Sox team have overachieved relative to how they've performed for the majority of their careers.

[memtiger]

It smells less like "fear and apprehension" and a LOT more like the same state of denial we were in last year... :grin:

exactly. it sounded like everything everybody said about them. hopefully it turns out nearly as well.

[BigCec]

wait, wait, wait...the White Sox have fans?

Exactly what I was thinking when I read the title of the thread...

[DET Mr Malefic]

Come to a Tiger/Sox game at the Cell now that the Sox are good. And wear your Tigers jersey. Then tell me how you feel about the Sox fans..

I did that last year and my experience was not a good one, especially since the Tigers lost something like 11-2 (or maybe it was 11-4?). It was 9/1/05.

[DET Mr Malefic]

Some of them didn't even go to the White House for their meet and greet for winning the world series.

Actually, I've never been one to wish to be famous because I don't like being recognized so much, but one big reasons that I'd like to be famous is so I could do something just like this. Use my celebrity to make political statements. I wouldn't go to the white house either if I were on a World championship team. Not this White House, anyway.

My own beliefs aside, Guillen is from Venezuela, a country whose leader isn't exactly on the best terms with our nation's leadership right now.

[DET Mr Malefic]

I thought the analysis of our pitching was reasonable. He's not saying anything that I haven't thought myself.

I think some of you guys are letting your blind hatred and/or jealousy of a divisional opponent cloud your judgment. I actually am part of the crowd that believes the Sox had a perfect-storm type stroke of luck last year (though the longer into this season that they succeed, the less I believe that), however, it's not like they were a bad team, even on paper, last year or this year.

You have to keep in mind they haven't had a losing season since 1999 (they were .500 in '02). And in several seasons leading up to last year, they were doing well late in the year and then choked it up late. They almost choked it up last year when Cleveland surged, but they recovered just in time.

Let's not pretend that they took a totally garbage team last year and just got lucky and won a championship.

[estrepe1]

Barring tonights game I don't think it is that far off. I am uncertain they will fall that far but I think that you will see them taper off as the season progresses. I just hope that the fall happens slowly and the offense picks up....

I certainly don't think it is this much better than the White Sox staff.