BP: Tigers at 81% Odds of Making Playoffs [Archive]

Ron Burgandy

05-01-2006, 08:02 AM

We were discussing this yesterday in the Game Thread, but I thought I'd make it into its own thread.

After this weekend's sweep, Baseball Prospectus gives the Tigers an 81% chance of making the playoffs, the best in baseball. Their projections have us averaging over 98 wins. Incredible.

This shows just how legitimate our start has been this year. No smoke and mirrors, no luck. We're just straight up beating people. What a pleasant surprise.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Yoda

05-01-2006, 08:11 AM

davidsb

05-01-2006, 08:18 AM

Holy moley - they have the Tigers winning 4 more games than anyone in baseball. Of course, that is just after only a million simulations.

BiggieG

05-01-2006, 08:21 AM

Although I want the Tigers to do great, and it's awful easy to jump on this bandwagon, I just can't help but thinking that this is next to impossible at this point in the season. Call me skeptical, but this isn't the Detroit Pistons we're talking about.

ChiRho

05-01-2006, 08:23 AM

It also gives us the third best chance of winning the World Series, behind the two NY teams. Unreal. Of course, all of this could change quickly with a few injuries, but this is still interesting. We knew we had a decent team on paper if they stayed healthy, but not this good.

Sure about that?

Does "Champions" mean divisional champions or WS champions? I think if you add champions and wild card percentages you will arrive at the playoff chance total.

Of course I could be way off.

Yoda

05-01-2006, 08:25 AM

You're right Chi. I stand corrected. Thanks.

tiger paw paw

05-01-2006, 09:05 AM

detroitdan

05-01-2006, 09:08 AM

I think health is all this team needs...after the hitting performance that I saw on Saturday afternoon, if this team has some decent pitching and stays healthy, they are a playoff contender.

davidsb

05-01-2006, 09:15 AM

Now only if we can get the Lions on this wagon!!

Dawgs

05-01-2006, 09:22 AM

I wonder how they had Baltimore ranked. Was it last year or the year before when the Orioles had the hot start? All the losing around here and the seasons have run together a bit.

Anyway I think the Tigs are better off than that Baltimore team in that this start has been balanced. Weve won with pitching (5 shutouts, league leading era), hitting (lead in hrs and won saturday with 18 runs) and the defense has been solid. Baltimore was just crushing the ball.

Ron Burgandy

05-01-2006, 09:29 AM

Walewander

05-01-2006, 09:38 AM

While I'm quite excited about the team this year and I'm a bit of a saber-head, I don't think I'm quite as optimistic as BP is. I'm going to say 90-72 at this point. Would that put us in the playoffs? I would assume so, yes. But at some point, it seems like someone is going to get hurt.

We are good, though. It's a great feeling.

tiger337

05-01-2006, 09:47 AM

RedTeamGo!

05-01-2006, 09:47 AM

Why do the Brewers have a 58% chance of making the playoffs, highest in the NL central? They haven't had that good of a start and are really young.

pyrotigers

05-01-2006, 09:51 AM

Well, I'm sure our totals are skewed a bit as well by the recent massacring of the twins. (I'm assuming that run differential or something of that nature is part of the formula)

Once we get blown out ourselves a time or two (hopefully never happens of course) things should look more accurate.

Billy Ringo

05-01-2006, 09:55 AM

Don't get too excited and tangle the straps on your jock cups, guys. It is still a dream. Wait for the All Star break and you may see it more clearly.

I am holding on to my hope of finishing with a better than
.500 season.

estrepe1

05-01-2006, 10:52 AM

I'm not putting a lot stock into BPs probabilities. They are fun to look at and I'm sure a lot of thought went into their algorithm but I think the season is much too young to take these things too seriously. I'm sure if BP was predicting them to finish 4th right now, everybody would be ridiculing their methods.

Agreed.

I think that it is fun to see a national publication that is more optimistic than me of the Tigers chances.

I am going to wait until the 40 game mark to make any sort of conclusion. I said that during the White Sox series and I am saying it now after a successful road trip and a successful series against the Twins.

billfer

05-01-2006, 11:12 AM

I am going to wait until the 40 game mark to make any sort of conclusion. I said that during the White Sox series and I am saying it now after a successful road trip and a successful series against the Twins.

The nice thing is that with each game closer to 40, the better things look.

Buddha

05-01-2006, 11:13 AM

I thought bp hated the Tigers?

Just beat the damn White Sox, that's all I ask.

Tramfan

05-01-2006, 11:21 AM

I think the most telling reason for the migration towards winning is the continued development of our young players. Who would've thought so many young players like Granderson, Shelton, Verlander, Zumaya, Rodney and Tata would be contributing to the big league club and looking like future stars at about the time Verlander was drafted?

Some other postives are Rogers is a perfect fit for Copa and compliments a relatively young staff with three lefties. As we've found out, most teams not named the Blue Jays don't hit LH pitching nearly as well as they do right. Rogers is almost like having a second pitching coach around who can lead by example. I had no idea he'd have this kind of affect.

Guillen and Ordonez for the most part look healthy and this team will produce if they continue to stay healthy. And lastly and as I've repeated many times before Leyland has and will make a difference in many ways before the year is finished. This sure has a wierd feeling of being a special kind of year in motown. It would be great to see the olde english D flashed across the country in October.

Edman85

05-01-2006, 11:23 AM

One caveat... Fernando Rodney is 29.

Tramfan

05-01-2006, 11:49 AM

One caveat... Fernando Rodney is 29.

I guess I was thinking more along the lines of this being his fourth year in baseball and still improving.

fin

05-01-2006, 12:04 PM

Where do I sign up for the SI World Champion Detroit Tigers package?

In all honesty though, is 20 some games a big enough sample size to even talk about projections?

skwid

05-01-2006, 12:07 PM

I'm a bit skeptical of 98 wins this season. I'll settle for third place behind a close second (as opposed to a distant 3rd). If we can get that much out of them, we're seeing genuine improvement. Don't go overboard with the Tiges, folks. Be reasonable to them and understand they're not likely to win the division much less the AL but if they can knab a spot in the playoffs or even fight like the dickens even if they ultimately end up being eliminated, take that improvement. At least they are in there battling and believing themselves tgood enough to be beat most teams. That's something we can build on and that's all I'm asking for. Of course, I'll take more if they want to give us more.

Billy Ringo

05-01-2006, 01:45 PM

Just beat the damn White Sox, that's all I ask.

Though we may have disagreed on some issues, this is where Buddha and I are in one accord.

MAROTH4MVP

05-01-2006, 02:03 PM

Just make sure they ranked the detroit tigers of planet earth of the milkyway galaxy 81% likely to make the playoffs?

tigersfan25

05-01-2006, 02:26 PM

Where do I sign up for the SI World Champion Detroit Tigers package?

In all honesty though, is 20 some games a big enough sample size to even talk about projections?
I don't think it is... but then again, Burgandy isn't saying the team's gonna do everything that BP projects them to. He is stating that the Tigers start is not flukey... that they are earning it, which stats wise, is true.

djhutch

05-01-2006, 03:07 PM

Where do I sign up for the SI World Champion Detroit Tigers package?

I hate S-I. I've vowed never to subscribe to that rag again. But you've nailed the 1 thing that would make me eat those words. :classic:

JonBenke

05-01-2006, 03:48 PM

You know, there is always -- it seems -- that season before a team becomes a contending team, where they are the surprise team that year. I remember a few years back, I think it may have been Ben Wallace's first in Detroit, but not much was expected from us, and I think we won 50 games.

Since 2003, we have made small strides towards becoming a better team, but sooner or later, if this was indeed to head in the right direction, we'd had to have made a huge stride, teams do it all the time, and who knows, maybe that is this year, where we go from being a team that can't sell out, under .500, to a team that is competitive, fighting for a playoff spot until the final day! I don't want to get my hopes up, but -- this team feels legit.

Yoda

05-01-2006, 03:50 PM

2 legit 2 quit, baby! :cool:

HeyAbbott

05-01-2006, 04:46 PM

Although I have said this before, this team kind of reminds me of the 1966 or the 1967 squads. In 1966 the tigers learned to win after they had finished a minor rebuild (they had won 101 games in 1961 after all). What I am begginning to see are a group of players that are doing the little things that it takes to win and staying within themselves as well as having everyone contribute to the winning performance of the team.
For a long time, I have felt that this team might be overly susceptible to injuries that could finish a season. Now, I am not so sure due to the fact that this team is playing like a team.
It is a little too early for playoff talk, but I think that a winning season (81 to 83 wins) is very likely

Casimir

05-01-2006, 08:54 PM

I'll fully believe the playoffs are within reach when the x- appears to the right of Detroit in the standings. And even then, I'll need someone to pinch me and throw cold water on me.

TheCouga

05-02-2006, 03:13 AM

I'm not putting a lot stock into BPs probabilities. They are fun to look at and I'm sure a lot of thought went into their algorithm but I think the season is much too young to take these things too seriously. I'm sure if BP was predicting them to finish 4th right now, everybody would be ridiculing their methods.

They are probably only going on how well the team has played this year alone. I say this because they have pegged the Rockies to win the NL West. Our offense is performing at about the level I thought it would. Six major hitters hitting at or over .300, moderate power from 1-9 in the lineup, the best offense in the AL Central. Our pitching is seriously overperforming. I don't know if this formula accounts for that. It doesn't look like it.

ChiRho

05-02-2006, 05:56 AM

They are probably only going on how well the team has played this year alone.

Is there another option?

I say this because they have pegged the Rockies to win the NL West.

Actually, it's the Diamondbacks.

Our offense is performing at about the level I thought it would. Six major hitters hitting at or over .300, moderate power from 1-9 in the lineup, the best offense in the AL Central.

You are good. They have far surpassed my expectations.

Our pitching is seriously overperforming. I don't know if this formula accounts for that. It doesn't look like it.

Just curious...but how would one do that?

fin

05-02-2006, 06:16 AM

Looking at our pitchers VORP, the entire staff is way over league average. If you look at our batters, the VORP is pretty balanced, except for Shelton.
So I agree with your statement about our pitching overperforming.

ChiRho

05-02-2006, 06:28 AM

Oh, there is a PECOTA version (which I believe does factor in something along the lines that the Couga was suggesting)...

Here (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php)

Detroit slips just slightly to finish third overall in playoff odds at 78% (61% DC) behind only the New York clubs. The Yankees are number one at 84%.

estrepe1

05-02-2006, 09:05 AM

The 1 run win last night dropped our odds to 80.3 percent.

The projection is still for 98 wins but with the Sox still winning it dropped our chances of winning the division to 59% from 62%... but our WC chances went up to 20.6%...

These mean little to nothing but they are fun to look at. I don't know what I would do if the Tigers won 98 games.

dt35456884

05-03-2006, 09:44 AM

Up to 82.3% after last night's win. No other team is within 10% of our odds.

Now projected for 99 wins.

MelissaG915

05-03-2006, 10:12 AM

I don't want to get my hopes up, but isn't it nice to be able to get hopes up anyway?

Ron Burgandy

05-03-2006, 12:00 PM

Clay Davenport has an article up discussing the methodology of these projections:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5036

tiger337

05-03-2006, 12:20 PM

cruzer1

05-03-2006, 12:24 PM

I prefer Nate Silver's PECOTA projections.

Tramfan

05-03-2006, 12:54 PM

Having so many talented young players without much of a track record, players who have produced at very high levels earlier in their career who are now healther and a manager who will likely get the most out of his players, I find it nearly impossible to know what to expect from a player or a team perspective at this point.

estrepe1

05-03-2006, 01:11 PM

The article confirms that the projections are only based on this year's games and do not take into consideration that some players are playing above or below their expectations. So, I'd say these projections don't tell us all that much after 27 games. They are a good tool to have as a starting point. They tell us what to expect if the players keep doing what they are doing for the rest of the season. You need to go beyond that though if you want to come up with reasonable probabilities. I think the Tigers can keep up what they are doing offensively but I don't expect the pitching to stay as strong. The BP probabilities will become more meaningful in another month or so.

The PECOTA adjusted version of it I think has the predicted values for the rest of the season included. Of course the hot start will still bump some stuff around. Basically I agree it doesn't mean much, but it is fun to look at.

BTW the PECOTA adjusted wins are 100.... I doubt that will happen. That would be beyond the best case scenario I had for this club. I need more data before I can make a conclusion. They are on fire pitching right now. I want to see what happens when they come back to earth a bit.

thewave84

05-03-2006, 02:18 PM

estrepe1

05-03-2006, 02:29 PM

Was anyone checking the report before the Minn series? I suspect the numbers became pretty skewed by outscoring the Twins 33-1 over 3 games. It will probably take a couple of weeks for that effect to dissipate.

If you click on the individual teams it gives you a day to day report of the odds.

While it was skewed by the Twins series it still had us at a high 61 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Yoda

05-03-2006, 02:39 PM

thewave84

05-03-2006, 02:47 PM

I'm sure the Twins series skewed it a bit, but was it a fluke? If we were to play them again next week, it likely wouldn't be so lopsided, but we'd stand a good chance of beating them up pretty badly again.

Umm, Yoda, it is a fluke. Even the best teams in history don't consistently score 2x as many runs as their opponents. Scoring 3x as many runs as the other team over a 3 game series is rare. Scoring 10x as many runs as your opponen is a huge fluke. Scoring 33x as many runs as your opponent over a 3 game series is unheard of (except that it just happened). :classic:

tiger337

05-03-2006, 02:54 PM

The PECOTA adjusted version of it I think has the predicted values for the rest of the season included. Of course the hot start will still bump some stuff around. Basically I agree it doesn't mean much, but it is fun to look at.

yes, I think you are right. I looked at it closer. Hopefully, the Tigers will still be going good in another few weeks when the probabilities start to make more sense.

Yoda

05-03-2006, 02:57 PM

Umm, Yoda, it is a fluke. Even the best teams in history don't consistently score 2x as many runs as their opponents. Scoring 3x as many runs as the other team over a 3 game series is rare. Scoring 10x as many runs as your opponen is a huge fluke. Scoring 33x as many runs as your opponent over a 3 game series is unheard of (except that it just happened). :classic:

What part of "it wouldn't be so lopsided" didn't you get? :smoker: I know it was a fluke. I just said that they'd stand a good chance to beat them up pretty badly again, just not to that extreme. :happy:

thewave84

05-03-2006, 03:47 PM

Ok, I was answering the first part of your post - where you said "I'm sure the Twins series skewed it a bit, but was it a fluke?" That is what I was responding to.

thewave84

05-03-2006, 03:58 PM

Now here is the kind of information that carries some weight with me: (from http://www.mlive.com/tigers/stories/index.ssf?/base/sports-1/113870583932760.xml&coll=1#continue )

This is just the fifth time in the last 91 years that the Tigers have started 18-9 or better. In three of the previous four seasons they did it, they went on to win more than 100 games…

Ron Burgandy

05-15-2006, 07:37 AM

Two weeks later, and the Tigers are still hanging tough in the playoff odds report...62% chance of WINNING the AL Central. 77% chance of making the playoffs.

tigersfan25

06-12-2006, 08:02 AM

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Bump... Just short of a month later, the Tigers still have a 77% chance of making the playoffs.

Yoda

06-12-2006, 08:15 AM

Close behind, the Royals have a "0.00000" percent chance. Is it time to start worying?

Oblong

06-12-2006, 08:17 AM

Would you guys wager $1000 on the TIgers making the playoffs?

Yoda

06-12-2006, 08:20 AM

Would you guys wager $1000 on the TIgers making the playoffs?

Nope. I've been a Tigers and Lions fan for too long.

Todd

06-12-2006, 08:21 AM

Would you guys wager $1000 on the TIgers making the playoffs?
heck no

tigersfan25

06-12-2006, 08:22 AM

Would you guys wager $1000 on the TIgers making the playoffs?
Nope... I don't think they'll make the playoffs.

thewave84

06-12-2006, 08:22 AM

No, but emotionally I have more than that already invested. No need to back it up with real $.

Yoda

06-12-2006, 08:26 AM

Nope... I don't think they'll make the playoffs.

Are you saying this just so you can say "I knew they wouldn't" if they don't?

Oblong

06-12-2006, 08:28 AM

I don't think they will either. I hope I am wrong and I won't gloat if I am.

tigersfan25

06-12-2006, 08:36 AM

Are you saying this just so you can say "I knew they wouldn't" if they don't?
Can a guy just not think they are going to make the playoffs around here? Hokey Pete. I'm not here to gloat.

IdahoBert

06-12-2006, 08:56 AM

I think they'll make it, but a vow of poverty to a religious order known as my wife and children keeps me from gambling....

cruzer1

06-12-2006, 09:01 AM

I would never put money on any of the Detroit teams because I'd never want to jinx any of them.

BiggieG

06-12-2006, 09:06 AM

I would never put money on any of the Detroit teams because I'd never want to jinx any of them.Don't breathe.

Brent

06-12-2006, 09:10 AM

If they have 56 wins at the All Star break, I believe they'll make the playoffs.

Why 56? It's a win total they have failed to reach 4 times during the last 12 years.

I believe Boston will win the East (NY has too many injuries and not enough pitching), Chicago should win the Central with us winning the Wild Card. I have no idea what will happen out west.

tiger337

06-12-2006, 09:26 AM

I don't think they'll make it but I think they will stay in the hunt most of the season. I think their young pitchers and old pitcher will tire a bit in the second half.

Yoda

06-12-2006, 09:40 AM

Can a guy just not think they are going to make the playoffs around here? Hokey Pete. I'm not here to gloat.

I wasn't criticizing you, just asking a question. Hokey Pete.

It just seems too early to think one way or the other. There is room for decline, as Lee stated, but there's plenty of room for improvement as well. I think Bonderman has a strong chance to have a 2nd half ERA a full run lower than his first half ERA. We don't yet know if DD will make a move to bring in another bat. But then we also have a chance of the rest of our pitchers declining.

But right now, there aren't that many sign to indicate a steep drop in production. We just played near .500 in the hardest stretch of the season. Until they start losing to bad teams it seems hazardous to say that you don't think they'll make it.

Just my two cents.

And by the way, the White Sox are not playing that good. We need to see if they're going to bounce back or not as well. I think that'll have more to do with our playoff chances than what our own team does.

Ron Burgandy

06-12-2006, 09:50 AM

The White Sox have played the weakest schedule in MLB thus far...they are entering a tougher stretch here vs. Texas, St. Louis and Cincinnati. Let's see how they fair against decent competition.

pyrotigers

06-12-2006, 10:02 AM

The White Sox have played the weakest schedule in MLB thus far...they are entering a tougher stretch here vs. Texas, St. Louis and Cincinnati. Let's see how they fair against decent competition.

Texas already did pretty well against them earlier this year, but I'm not sold on how tough the pujols-less Cards and Reds will be.

It's going to be interesting when they actually face some tough teams like we have recently.

chasfh

06-12-2006, 01:11 PM

Ho boy -- if they make no moves, I would tend to think they don't make the playoffs. if they can address one, and hopefully two, holes in their lineup (LF, 3B), I like their chances a lot better.

AlKalineIsGod

06-12-2006, 03:21 PM

Now only if we can get the Lions on this wagon!!

God that would kick soo much azz!

FloridaTigers

06-12-2006, 03:28 PM

I'm rather optimistic we can make the playoffs. Do we have the tools and players to make it to the World Series? I don't think so. But I think we can contend all the way through September.

Ron Burgandy

06-19-2006, 07:47 AM

Tigers up to 84.4% chances of making the playoffs today, June 19th. Amazing.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Dawgs

06-19-2006, 08:04 AM

If the Tigers go .500 the rest of the season they end up with 92 wins. If the Yankees continue to win at the pace they are on now they win 92 games. If the Tigers win at a .432 clip they end up with 85 wins which is what alot of people said was thier ceiling. We are 6 1/2 games up on the Yankees for the wild card assuming the Sox pass us. I think New York is sitting at home watching Detroit this playoff season.

estrepe1

06-19-2006, 08:39 AM

Tigers up to 84.4% chances of making the playoffs today, June 19th. Amazing.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Its interesting that both the Tigers and the White Sox have a better shot of the postseason than the Yankees and Red Sox according to BP.

tiger337

06-19-2006, 10:30 AM

I'm rather optimistic we can make the playoffs. Do we have the tools and players to make it to the World Series? I don't think so. But I think we can contend all the way through September.

Some teams have better chances than others but once a team makes the playoffs, anything can happen. If a few players (especially pitchers) get hot at the right time, that can sometimes put an underdog team over the top. Every team that makes the playoffs has a decent chance at the World Series.

Yoda

06-19-2006, 10:34 AM

Some teams have better chances than others but once a team makes the playoffs, anything can happen. If a few players (especially pitchers) get hot at the right time, that can sometimes put an underdog team over the top. Every team that makes the playoffs has a decent chance at the World Series.

Agreed. Just look at the last 5 years. Anything can happen. And we have a manager that's already won it twice.

Sparks4Ever

06-19-2006, 10:35 AM

Its interesting that both the Tigers and the White Sox have a better shot of the postseason than the Yankees and Red Sox according to BP.

They also have the Blue Jays breathing down their necks.

Zoogz

06-19-2006, 10:36 AM

A couple things I take from this:

1) If I recall correctly, the Tigers PCT3 was lower than the Sox early on this year but the Tigers, through all their winning, have raised it above where the Sox are now. The guide at the bottom says that it is an expected winning percentage; all the winning that the Tigers have done has even convinced some of the mathematical models.

2) This projection is saying that the Tigers' average wins this year would be just shy of 100, which says that there's a darned good chance that this projection has the Tigers' wins over 100 in not quite half of its millions of projections. Would anyone here have believed that to begin the season? (Not me...)

3) Rereading this thread from the beginning allowed me to reread the wisdom of Billy Ringo. It's awesome to be able to raise expectations, but in all honesty I was in agreement with Billy to begin this season in hoping and wishing for the Tigers to at least have something to build on. While all this winning is awesome, I will echo the wisdom of the ages and say that this has all been gravy, and while the Tigers are far above .500 now, I do hope that whatever happens this year that they can just continue to improve.

Ron Burgandy

06-27-2006, 07:39 AM

As of June 27, 2006, the Tigers are up to 90% odds of making the playoffs, including 68% odds of winning the Central!

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

thewave84

06-27-2006, 08:06 AM

Omigosh, according to this, the Mets have a 99% chance to make the playoffs. That is pretty remarkable for June.

IndyJoker

06-27-2006, 08:10 AM

Omigosh, according to this, the Mets have a 99% chance to make the playoffs. That is pretty remarkable for June.

That is because their division is pretty lame. The Phillies are 12 games back and aren't looking like they can make a run. Florida, Washington, Atlanta are all within 16 games, but I can't see any of them gaining much, if any, ground on the Mets. But who would have thought the Braves would be in dead last at the All-Star break .. (or close to it)

MichiganFan1717

06-27-2006, 08:59 AM

I've enjoyed looking at these, but how is it possible that 5 teams in the AL are odds on favorites to make the playoffs?

tigersrok

06-27-2006, 09:03 AM

Omigosh, according to this, the Mets have a 99% chance to make the playoffs. That is pretty remarkable for June.

They are about the only team in the NL who would have any sort of chance in the AL so it's not all that surprising.

Sparks4Ever

06-27-2006, 09:15 AM

I've enjoyed looking at these, but how is it possible that 5 teams in the AL are odds on favorites to make the playoffs?

If you have 5 teams with an equal shot at earning one of 4 playoff spots, then they would each have a 80% chance of making the playoffs. That's an example of how there can be 5 teams with a greater than 50% chance of making the playoffs.

MichiganFan1717

06-27-2006, 06:15 PM

If you have 5 teams with an equal shot at earning one of 4 playoff spots, then they would each have a 80% chance of making the playoffs. That's an example of how there can be 5 teams with a greater than 50% chance of making the playoffs.

I didn't really think about it that much, but your right. That makes sense.

DaYooperASBDT

06-28-2006, 08:32 AM

Not to be a jinx, but the Tigers' magic number for making the playoffs is currently 78, due to their 8.5 game lead over the Yanks for the WC spot.

dt35456884

07-08-2006, 03:59 PM

Today's PECOTA-adjusted odds put the Tigers at a 92.9% chance of making the playoffs.

Don't look now, but the White Sox' odds have slipped to 64.3%.

snoogit

07-08-2006, 04:56 PM

*knocks on wood*

I wonder what a Mets/Tigers series would be like.

according to that page its the likely outcome... :p

wingedwheel

07-08-2006, 05:24 PM

I love the Royals line. The only team with absolutely no chance of making the playoffs!

Yoda

07-08-2006, 05:28 PM

I think we all need to start rooting for the Yankees. As much as I hate to do it. I'd much rather see them win the WC. Assuming we win the division, which is pretty stupid at this point. But oh well.

cruzer1

07-08-2006, 06:06 PM

Yoda

07-08-2006, 06:10 PM

I would love to see that happen, although they would then end up being our DLS opponent.

I'm not all that afraid of them. Better than facing the White Sox.

Edman85

07-08-2006, 06:31 PM

I think we all need to start rooting for the Yankees. As much as I hate to do it. I'd much rather see them win the WC. Assuming we win the division, which is pretty stupid at this point. But oh well.

Considering that we are battling Chicago for a Division title and potentially New York for a playoff berth, I'll continue rooting against the Yankees and pulling for their failure.

dt35456884

07-08-2006, 06:32 PM

It's way too early to start rooting for the Yankees. They are 2nd in the Wild Card and as such I want as much distance between them and us as possible. If we build a 20-game lead on the Wild Card pack we can start thinking about who we might want to emerge.

The White Sox pitching has not been impressive lately. Their bats will carry them, but as somebody said on WSI today, they are beginning to look like the '05 Red Sox. Still a great team, but with increasingly suspect pitching.

That's not to say the Tigers are going to continue their level of dominance on the mound, because I don't think they will.

DaYooperASBDT

07-08-2006, 06:35 PM

I'm hoping the Bostons beat up on Chicago, and then the Bostons split with the Yankees in any of their remaining games ....

Oblong

07-08-2006, 06:38 PM

Even though I'm traditionally a Red Sox fan, I'm pulling for the Yankees over them. I like this group of yankees over the Red Sox and Red Sox nation has gotten on my nerves the last few years. They need more misery.

JonBenke

07-08-2006, 06:57 PM

I'll continue rooting against the Yankees and pulling for their failure.
Me too -- Yoda, why would you want to make it close if the White Sox pull past us?

I want it to be, if the White Sox pull past us in mid to late August, to be given a nice five to six game wild card lead to break my fall.

Falling into a half game lead would not be good, so I'll root for 'em all to lose.

Yoda

07-08-2006, 06:59 PM

Me too -- Yoda, why would you want to make it close if the White Sox pull past us?

Did you even read all of my post? Obviously if the White Sox pull past us I wouldn't want it to be close.

jjc

07-08-2006, 07:02 PM

I think in general you should want the team with the worse record to beat the team with the better record. Let them all bring each other down toward .500, while we push toward .700

JonBenke

07-08-2006, 07:03 PM

Did you even read all of my post? Obviously if the White Sox pull past us I wouldn't want it to be close.
Yeah, but if the Yankees keep winning .. it'll be close, the WC race.

Yoda

07-08-2006, 07:06 PM

I know.. Im just hoping the White Sox continue their skid. I'm in no way saying that that will happen.

chasfh

07-08-2006, 10:37 PM

I think we all need to start rooting for the Yankees. As much as I hate to do it. I'd much rather see them win the WC. Assuming we win the division, which is pretty stupid at this point. But oh well.

No way! Our goal is to get into the playoffs. I would much rather we end up 8 games behind the Sox and make the wild card than to end up 1/2 game behind the Sox but beaten out for the wild card by the Yankees.

In fact, I would root for the White Sox to win games against the Yankees simply to enhance our overall playoff chances -- because we can finish behind the Sox and still make the playoffs, but we can't finish behind the Sox and the Red Sox and the Yankees, because then we're out.

I know it sounds counterintuitive, and of course I'd prefer to win the division outright -- but given the choice, I would rather the White Sox beat the Yankees in games, if it enhances our playoff chances.

I know this will piss off some people here -- but what can I say? I'm a pragmatist at heart.

dt35456884

07-08-2006, 10:46 PM

In Yoda's defense, I think what he was saying is that he hopes we build a big lead in the division and the Wild Card, and that the White Sox drop back into the rest of the Wild Card pack. Then, pull for the Yankees.

That seems very unlikely and he admitted as such.

DaYooperASBDT

07-09-2006, 09:08 AM

Tigers' magic number for making the 2006 playoffs: 69 dude!

DET Mr Malefic

07-09-2006, 11:39 AM

I tell you what, if BP is correct, I really do hope the Tigers win the division because if we end up playing Texas in round 1, I will be exceptionally confident that there will be at least two rounds of playoff baseball in Detroit.

snoogit

07-09-2006, 12:11 PM

Considering that we are battling Chicago for a Division title and potentially New York for a playoff berth, I'll continue rooting against the Yankees and pulling for their failure.

Here here! we need to be rooting for a AL West or AL Central WC winner.

Having the Yankees in the playoffs does no one any good. For some reason thats when they seem to turn it on and start playing decent ball... It's like they coast into the playoffs and only get hot when they need to.

Right now I'd much rather face Chicago, Minnesota, Texas, or Oakland in the playoffs then the Yankees. Although the team we should REALLY
be rooting for is Toronto to pull ahead of the Yankees. Thats the only good scenario.

ricucity

07-09-2006, 04:31 PM

It's too easy to think it's in the bag. Theoretically, we probably only need 35-40 more wins, but with the way both of the Soxes are keeping pace, the way the Yankees always turn it on late--it's too early to say anything. Especially since Verlander is going to be rested at times, Miner is not a SURE bet...it's just too much to consider. I am a realist, not an optimist...in the end, yes, I think we may be postseason bound, but there are so many factors, and that all-star break can kill some teams and revive others. It's scary, I don't know how to handle it--baseball is a long season, and I have never really been alive for a run like this, I was born in '88. I'm cautious, I have no reason, based on Tigers' history in my living years, to be optimistic.

Ron Burgandy

07-21-2006, 08:05 AM

After this week's series the Tigers are up to 80% odds of winning the Central, and 93% odds of making the playoffs. I like it. :cool:

Yoda

07-21-2006, 08:11 AM

dt35456884

07-21-2006, 03:18 PM

I admit, I'm still somewhat waiting for the other shoe to drop and the Tigers to falter down the stretch. Just because I don't know what it's like for my team to even reach .500. But it's getting more and more difficult to not believe that this could be the year.

The incredible thing is, we are just one good run away from practically sealing a playoff spot. If the team goes 11-4 in their next 15, we'd be standing forty games over .500, at 75-35. No way do they miss the playoffs if they get to 75-35. That would mean .500 ball for the last 52 games would get us to 101 wins.

Yoda

07-21-2006, 03:27 PM

That would mean .500 ball for the last 52 games would get us to 101 wins.

And what's crazy is when we do play .500 for 8-10 games it feels like a huge slump. It just doesn't seem possible to do that over a period of 52 games.

RobSk

07-21-2006, 03:31 PM

And what's crazy is when we do play .500 for 8-10 games it feels like a huge slump. It just doesn't seem possible to do that over a period of 52 games.

I agree, it's not possible, with the exact caveat as we saw at the beginning of the year:

Injuries.

If Guillen, Ordonez, and Pudge are healthy, I think we won't be a .500 team. If we lose one or two of those guys, it could be painful. That's the only way I see us not making the playoffs.

Rob

Sparks4Ever

07-25-2006, 09:43 AM

Tigers over 95% now.

White Sox below 50% odds of making the playoffs for the first time I've seen.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Also note, average wins for the AL wild card is 96 wins. Yikes!

Yoda

07-25-2006, 09:48 AM

cruzer1

07-25-2006, 09:56 AM

• With a win over the White Sox Monday, the Twins are 32-8 over their last 40 games -- almost one-quarter of the season. Through June 7, the Twins were 25-33, 11½ games behind the Tigers. However, while the Twins have played .800 ball over the last six weeks, the Tigers have gone 30-10. The only other major league team even playing above .600 since then is the Red Sox (27-15).

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=2528939

estrepe1

07-25-2006, 09:59 AM

Honestly, Pudge has been hot lately, but losing him wouldn't be as big of a dropoff as losing Ordonez would. But even if we lost Ordonez, Monroe would likely fill in, who could be adaquate if he has a half-decent 2nd half. We may be in decent shape even if we do have a couple injuries. We'd need them back for the playoffs though.

I don't want to find out though....

I think it would depend on the severity of the injury to a player. If they are out for a week or two then I think the team could survive. I don't think they could if a player was out for 2 months.....

Ron Burgandy

07-25-2006, 10:02 AM

I don't want to find out though....

I think it would depend on the severity of the injury to a player. If they are out for a week or two then I think the team could survive. I don't think they could if a player was out for 2 months.....

I'm not so sure. I saw a stat yesterday that the Tigers were leading the league in the number of players making large contributions to their teams success. I don't remember the metric used, but the Tigers were the only team with 10+ players making the requisite contribution. What that tells me is that we are balanced enough that we could probably sustain an injury and not drop *too* far.

Heck, we've already survived the loss of our #3 starter and our opening day #5 hitter. As we ease those two back in, we could withstand another loss.

I agree, though, that I don't want to find out.

Sparks4Ever

07-25-2006, 10:07 AM

If Young continues to swing the bat the way he has the last 4 or 5 days, then the Tigers can survive an injury to one of their key batters.

Ron Burgandy

07-25-2006, 10:07 AM

I'm not so sure. I saw a stat yesterday that the Tigers were leading the league in the number of players making large contributions to their teams success. I don't remember the metric used, but the Tigers were the only team with 10+ players making the requisite contribution.

So that is incredibly vague...I'll try to dig up the article later when I have a minute.

estrepe1

07-25-2006, 10:09 AM

If Young continues to swing the bat the way he has the last 4 or 5 days, then the Tigers can survive an injury to one of their key batters.

Counting on Young to stay healthy is tough though.....

snoogit

07-25-2006, 10:35 AM

Counting on Young to stay healthy is tough though.....

Well now that hes off whatever drug it was who knows?

Yoda

07-25-2006, 10:44 AM

Well now that hes off whatever drug it was who knows?

I heard he still uses candy bars daily.

Adams Brush St

07-25-2006, 11:54 AM

this is a tracking spreadsheet from game 1 through last night... interesting to watch the fluctuations but clearly an upward trend all season.

http://msu.edu/~drozepat/today/tigs.xls

witz57

07-25-2006, 11:59 AM

This is great. Thanks for the share.

Edman85

07-25-2006, 12:03 PM

this is a tracking spreadsheet from game 1 through last night... interesting to watch the fluctuations but clearly an upward trend all season.

http://msu.edu/~drozepat/today/tigs.xls

That's awesome, but all you have to do is click on the team name in the link.

Ron Burgandy

07-25-2006, 12:04 PM

Rob Neyer just referenced another playoff odds site: coolstandings.com

They also simulate the remainder of the season 1,000,000 times. They have the Tigers winning the AL Central nearly 96% of the time.

olbiadle

07-29-2006, 01:34 PM

Tigers pushing 97% for playoffs, 91% for Division
Chicago down to 36% for playoffs
Twins up to 20%
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

Motor City Sonics

08-06-2006, 09:58 AM

98.2% for playoffs now
91.9% for division.

dt35456884

08-08-2006, 08:04 AM

PECOTA-adjusted odds:

Division: 96.12%
Wild Card: 3.06%

Overall: 99.18%

Sux at 2.42% odds to win the division.

Here's something funny. Somebody at WSI.com yesterday said the Sux have a 50-50 chance to win the division, because "either we do win or we don't win." It's just like flipping a coin, apparently. Brilliant analysis.

Yoda

08-08-2006, 08:06 AM

So I guess the Tigers had 50/50 odds last year. Hey, there's hope for the Royals yet.

dt35456884

08-08-2006, 08:11 AM

Hey, there's hope for the Royals yet.

That's exactly right.

Until the Royals are mathematically eliminated, we know that one of two things will happen to them:

A.) They will win the World Series.
B.) They won't win the World Series.

Therefore the Royals' chances of winning a world championship this fall is 1-in-2. Makes you wonder why they weren't buyers at the deadline.

Ron Burgandy

09-25-2006, 09:10 AM

It's official...100%!

AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
Tigers 94 62 .572 97.8 64.2 76.95230 23.04770 100.00000
Twins 92 63 .564 96.4 65.6 23.04770 76.88085 99.92855
White Sox 87 69 .546 89.7 72.3 .00000 .07145 .07145

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

estrepe1

09-25-2006, 09:12 AM

That's exactly right.

Until the Royals are mathematically eliminated, we know that one of two things will happen to them:

A.) They will win the World Series.
B.) They won't win the World Series.

Therefore the Royals' chances of winning a world championship this fall is 1-in-2. Makes you wonder why they weren't buyers at the deadline.

I thought the Royals were going to finish ahead of the Tigers?

Thats what our local released expert told us.